Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone IRINA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2011-2012 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone IRINA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20120226 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7S 53.3E TO 14.9S 44.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
260100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7S
51.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
53.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH
INTENSE, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 252320Z AMSU IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALTHOUGH THE LLCC APPEARS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WHILE TRACKING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND WILL INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20120227 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260121Z FEB 12//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 260130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 49.4E TO 15.0S 43.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270100Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 48.5E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
49.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 48.5E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS);
HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NOW RE-EMERGING
OVER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A 262245Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
BECOME FRAGMENTED WHILE LOW-LEVEL BANDING REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT FMNN, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NNW
OF THE CENTER, SHOW SLP VALUES NEAR 998 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND
GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20120228 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270121Z FEB 12//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 270130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 45.1E TO 17.3S 41.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 272330Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 45.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED SHARPLY TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS SKIRTING THE COASTLINE OF NORTHWEST
MADAGASCAR AND CONVECTION HAS EBBED IN RESPONSE TO THE LAND
INTERACTION. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
BROAD, WITH A SMALL REGION OF 25-30 KNOT SOUTHERLIES OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE CHANNEL. THE 271200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE LLCC UNDER A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT
EASTERLIES, BUT FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT
THE SHEAR IS IMPEDING DEVELOPMENT. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MILD IMPINGEMENT TO OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT ALONG WITH A LACK OF ANY WELL-DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF
MADAGASCAR HAD BEEN RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST AND DRIVING THE LLCC
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A A REGION OF REDUCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE APPEARS TO BE WANING. THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING TRAPPED BETWEEN STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONES ON EITHER SIDE OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL CONFINE IT
BETWEEN THE 16TH AND 19TH LATITUDES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE CAPE SAINT ANDRE REGION ARE 29 TO 30 DEGREES. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY AS THE LLCC TRACKS DEEPER INTO
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THIS SUPERSEDES REF
A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120229 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280121Z FEB 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 43.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 43.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.8S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.6S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.1S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.9S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.9S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.7S 34.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.2S 32.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 43.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S,
(IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 14S IS OVERCOMING THE
IMPEDIMENTS OF HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS NOW
INTENSIFYING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK ASSESSMENTS AND
A PRESSURE REPORT FROM JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND, WHICH IS NEAR THE STORM
CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OFF THE CAPE ST ANDRE
REGION AND SLOWLY GATHERING STRENGTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, BUT ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VIGOROUS OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO IMPROVING,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A REGION OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THAT IS ALSO REFLECTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS, WHICH INDICATE A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. 28-29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATED AN ELONGATED
AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION AND TIGHTER BANDING. TC 14S IS IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ALONG THE 30TH LATITUDE. THE NORTHERN ANTICYCLONE IS
DEVELOPING INTO THE DOMINANT FORCE AND WILL DRIVE TC 14S ACROSS THE
CHANNEL AND INTO MOZAMBIQUE, NORTH OF MAPUTO. PEAK INTENSITY WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTER OF
THE CHANNEL. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN 280121Z FEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120229 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 42.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 42.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.8S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.1S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.0S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.5S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.3S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.4S 33.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.2S 31.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 42.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TC 14S HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLOWLY WEAKENED BUT REMAINS BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF AND IS SUFFERING
AS THE SOUTHERN INFLOW CROSSES OVER MADAGASCAR WITH A REGION OF
PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATING 35
KNOTS. 28 TO 29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC 14S IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND
THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE 30TH
LATITUDE. THE NORTHERN ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP INTO THE DOMINANT
FORCE DRIVING TC 14S ACROSS THE CHANNEL AND INTO SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE. THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS
THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL INTO AN IMPROVING
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS. LANDFALL
IS EXPECTED JUST AFTER TAU 72, WITH FRICTIONAL EFFECTS QUICKLY
DISSIPATING TC 14S BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120301 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 003//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 43.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 43.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.7S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.9S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.7S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.6S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.2S 35.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.2S 33.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.5S 32.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 43.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. TC 14S HAS INTENSIFIED
RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, INCREASING FROM 35 KNOTS TO 60
KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 (KNES/FMEE) TO 65 (PGTW)
KNOTS. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE
LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING
THE CENTER. TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN
WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
UNTIL AFTER TAU 96 WHEN THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO AN
APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120301 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 004//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 43.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 43.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.0S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.4S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 24.2S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.7S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.3S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.0S 32.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 43.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAD ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AS IT BRUSHED THE WESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS REMAINED INTACT. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED RIDGE
TO THE EAST. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO ASSUME STEERING AFTER TAU 24 AND FLATTEN THE CYCLONE'S TRACK TO A
MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 48. BY TAU 72, TC
IRINA WILL IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO MOZAMBIQUE, JUST NORTH OF
MAPUTO. THE TC WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120302 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 22.0S 42.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 42.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.8S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 24.5S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.7S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.0S 34.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.5S 32.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.8S 31.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 41.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120302 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 006//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 24.3S 40.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 40.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.2S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 25.5S 35.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.8S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.2S 33.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 26.5S 31.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 39.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW PARTIALLY
EXPOSED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A 021038Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS
DRIFTED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 14S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH UP TO LANDFALL AND
DISSIPATION INTO MOZAMBIQUE. TC IRINA WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY,
PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS, AS THE VWS RELAXES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST THEN SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, INDICATING COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS OVER
A WEAKENED SYSTEM. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR'S UNLIKELY POLEWARD TUG INTO THE STEERING
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120303 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 007//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 38.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 38.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 25.7S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.3S 34.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.7S 33.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.4S 34.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.0S 35.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.2S 34.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.3S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 37.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S,
(IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 14S IS STRUGGLING TO
INTENSIFY EVEN THOUGH IT HAS MOVED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AND LIES DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM 020912Z INDICATES THAT WINDS
OVER THE EQUATORWARD SEMICIRCLE ARE GENERALLY BELOW GALE FORCE. A
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP CONFIRMS A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CENTRAL CHANNEL AND A 021944Z TRMM IMAGE REVEALS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE, SHOWING STRONGLY
SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A
SPECTACULAR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHUNTING MOISTURE DEEP INTO
THE AFRICAN INTERIOR, WHICH WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM AT MINIMAL
CYCLONE STRENGTH. THERE IS ALSO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF BOUNDARY-LEVEL
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THE RESULT OF
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM AND A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE
ANTICYCLONE. THE ANTICYCLONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA AND
AS IT DOES SO A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE, NUDGING
THE STORM ACROSS THE CHANNEL TOWARDS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. DUE TO THE
FAILURE OF THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
MORE ERRATIC, WITH SOME VORTEX TRACKERS NOW INDICATING AN ERRATIC
LOOPING MOTION OVER THE WESTERN CHANNEL. THE 021200Z PGTW UPPER
LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SOURCE OF THE SUPPRESSED
DEVELOPMENT IS AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
ALTHOUGH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXIST WITHIN THE CHANNEL, THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CAP INTENSITY AT LOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND THE LOW LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THUS THERE IS A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND TC 14S
IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, THEN
TURN BRIEFLY POLEWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKS OFF-SHORE OF
SOUTH AFRICA. THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, WILL
PRECLUDE LINKAGE WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TC 14S WILL RESUME
A POLEWARD TRACK TOWARDS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AS THE NEXT ANTICYCLONE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL
DRIVE TC 14S LANDWARD AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS AT AND JUST ABOVE
CYCLONE INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120303 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 25.6S 35.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 35.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.1S 33.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.2S 33.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.4S 33.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 28.5S 34.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.4S 35.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.3S 34.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.5S 31.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 35.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST
OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS SEEN MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION PERSISTING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CREATE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LLCC, EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 030716Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. TC 14S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TRANSITORY LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL WEAKEN ALONG THE WESTERN HALF AS A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA TRACKS EASTWARD BRINGING THE TRACK
SOUTHWARD. BY TAU 72 THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER TO THE EAST
ALLOWING A NEW ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF TC 14S. THIS
WILL CAUSE TC 14S TO TRACK INTO SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE BETWEEN TAU 96
AND 120. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS MAINTAINING WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH AS THE
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HINDERS MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING THE INTENSITY. IN LATER TAUS THE
LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WILL WEAKEN DUE TO POOR SSTS SOUTH OF 26 DEGREES
SOUTH AND DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TAU 96, TC 14S WILL
MAKE LANDFALL LEADING TO THE LLCC DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 040300Z AND 041500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120304 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 26.3S 34.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 34.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.5S 33.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.3S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 28.5S 34.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.5S 35.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.5S 34.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.2S 32.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 34.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 14S IS REGENERATING DEEP CONVECTION AND TURNING BACK
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AGENCY FIXES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING POSITION AND EXACT AGREEMENT REGARDING INTENSITY. DESPITE
THE RECENT MOVEMENT AWAY FROM LAND, RAINBANDS IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY
ARE GENERATING DOWNPOURS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MAPUTO
AND INHAMBANE, MOZAMBIQUE. THE OTHER CONCENTRATION OF HEAVY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS DISPLACED TO THE DISTANT
SOUTHWEST, A PRODUCT OF CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE BELT OF EASTERLIES
FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 031942Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF PERSISTENT GALES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 031630Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING, AND THE 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE.
THE 031200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CYCLONE
JUST NORTH OF INHAMBANE, AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS STIFLING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN RETROGRADING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AND NEITHER FILLING NOR
DEEPENING. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS CONFIRM A GENERAL LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTEROMETRY DATA ALSO
CONFIRMS THE LOP-SIDED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH EXPANSIVE AREAS OF
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE AND A VERY NARROW AREA
OF GALES ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS LOST THE SUPERB EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW
CHANNEL THAT EXISTED 24 HOURS AGO, BUT VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
PERSISTS, AND THERE IS ADEQUATE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS SEVERELY IMPINGING ON OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING OVER SOUTH AFRICA THAT WILL EXERT AN
INCREASING STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
ALONG WITH A BOOST TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
STORM AND THE NORTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE GOING TO BEGIN
LINKAGE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CURRENTLY, TC 14S IS BEING KEPT
OVER THE WESTERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH IS PART OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY AND
REORIENT EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. THE RETREATING ANTICYCLONE COUPLED WITH THE
SOUTHEASTWARD DRAW FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CAUSE A NET
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH WILL BE A NEAR MISS AND NOT
COUPLE WITH THE STORM, PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
48. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
REBUILD SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND TC 14S WILL RESUME MOVEMENT TOWARDS
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, WHERE IT WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT LOW
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE ECMWF MODEL, HOWEVER, DEPICTS A CLOSED
500MB HEIGHT CENTER SEPARATING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH,
RESULTING IN A VERTICALLY STACKED SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
MEANDER OVER THE CHANNEL THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 96. DESPITE THE STRONG
TRACK RECORD OF THE ECMWF VORTEX TRACKER, THE FORECAST STAYS CLOSER
TO CONSENSUS. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR BEING SHUNTED FROM THE
STORM TO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THE RAPIDITY WITH WHICH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE SYSTEM MAKES IT
UNLIKELY THAT A POOL OF COLD AIR IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP AND TRANSLATE AS FAR EQUATORWARD AS ECMWF INDICATES.
THUS, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A SLOW REVERSAL BACK
TOWARDS LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AFTER TAU 24 AND A
RELATIVELY FLAT INTENSITY TREND THROUGH LANDFALL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120304 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 27.3S 34.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 34.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.6S 34.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 28.8S 34.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 28.3S 35.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.7S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.5S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.3S 34.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.0S 31.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 34.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LLCC HAS TAKEN A SHARP
TURN SOUTHWARD AND HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE AS IT HAS
SKIRTED THE AFRICAN COAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS AND THE
PERSISTENT STRUCTURE OBSERVED SINCE A 042214Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS. AS TC 14S MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS
INFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY IMPROVES FROM A REDUCTION IN LAND
INFLUENCE. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR SLOWING TC 14S. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TRACKING EASTWARD, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA BRINGING TC 14S BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN LATER TAUS AS INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT HAMPERS OUTFLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHIFTING OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A SLOWER LOOP BACK INTO MOZAMBIQUE. TC 14S IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120305 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 29.4S 34.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.4S 34.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 30.4S 35.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 29.9S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 29.1S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.1S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 27.3S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.2S 33.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.2S 29.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 34.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TC 14S BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC AND DEVELOPING DEEPER
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE, AND SUPPORTED BY THREE SHIP
REPORTS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A MOSAIC OF MICROWAVE IMAGES
CULMINATING WITH A 042246Z TRMM PASS CONFIRMS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZATION, SHOWING THICK AND TIGHTLY CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS AN EXCEPTION IN
THE FORM OF A LARGE BREAK OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE SUBSIDENT AREA AS A PRODUCT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHEREAS 24 HOURS AGO THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE IN THE SAME AREA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE
DEEP MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS THE CYCLONE
FILLS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO POINTS TO AN IMPROVING
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, SHOWING A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOLID RADIAL OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE. THE POLEWARD
CHANNEL IS A PRODUCT OF AN ENCROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH IS
NOW PASSING EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA. IN ADDITION TO FANNING THE
OUTFLOW, THE TROUGH IS DRAWING TC 14S POLEWARD. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT SEPARATION BETWEEN TC 14S AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS OF
SUFFICIENT DISTANCE TO PREVENT LINKAGE, AND THAT AS THE TROUGH
PASSES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 14S WILL MAKE A LANGUID TURN
BACK TO AN EQUATORWARD TRACK. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTH AFRICA, IT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM AND BEGIN GUIDING THE STORM BACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN NEAR UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOOPING PATTERN. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 14S WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE DURING THIS PROCESS; HENCE THE FLAT TREND
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. UPWELLING NEAR THE COAST WILL INDUCE SOME
DECAY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120305 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 30.6S 35.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6S 35.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 30.7S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 30.2S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 29.0S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.1S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.7S 36.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.5S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.2S 32.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 30.6S 35.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM AS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH
IS IMPINGING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL VENTED TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM,
GUIDING TC 14S BACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE
INTENSITY WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING SUPPORTED BY THE TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD, DIMINISHING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU 24.
UPWELLING NEAR THE COAST AND THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS WILL CAUSE TC 14S TO DISSIPATE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOOPING PATTERN, HOWEVER MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
TIMING OF LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120306 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 30.3S 37.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3S 37.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 29.7S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 29.1S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.6S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 30.2S 38.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT 12-HOUR ENHANCED ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECAME
MORE FRAGMENTED AND WAS DISPLACED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. FURTHERMORE, CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS BECOME
SHALLOWER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
A 052306Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL FEATURE DETACHED FROM THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTH-
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS TC
IRINA'S VERTICAL STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO REDUCE, A LOW-LAYER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE OF GOOD HOPE WILL NUDGE THE CYCLONE
EQUATORWARD AFTER TAU 12 AND CONTINUED EXPOSURE TO MODERATE VWS WILL
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE
OUTLIER PROJECTING A CONTINUED LINEAR EASTWARD MOTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z AND 070300Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120306 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 30.5S 39.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5S 39.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 29.6S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.9S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 30.3S 39.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 061134Z AMSU
IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
BANDING; HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 060616Z ASCAT IMAGE HAS
CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG LLCC WITH NUMEROUS 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ASCAT PEAK WINDS OF 50
KNOTS BUT IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM
KNES AND PGTW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. TC 14S IS SLOWLY WEAKENING WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COOL SST NEAR 25C AND
MODERATE, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14S IS TURNING MORE
POLEWARD AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120307 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 29.7S 41.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7S 41.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 29.2S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.1S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 41.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT 12-HOUR ENHANCED ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECAME
ELONGATED AND WAS DISPLACED FURTHER AWAY EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS CONVECTIVE TOPS BECAME SHALLOWER. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A 062256Z AMSR-E
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER DETACHED FROM THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. TC
IRINA IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO SUSTAINED MODERATE VWS
AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE
OUTLIER PROJECTING A CONTINUED LINEAR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE
ABRUPTLY TRACKING THE VORTEX POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 071500Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120307 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 016//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 29.4S 40.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.4S 40.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.3S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.3S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 29.3S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 40.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 071124Z AMSU
IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
LIMITED TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR SURROUNDING
THE LLCC. A 070554Z ASCAT IMAGE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG LLCC
WITH NUMEROUS 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE RECENT ASCAT DATA AND IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW
DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. TC 14S IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COOL SST NEAR 25C AND
MODERATE, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14S IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL (850MB) SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120308 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 29.4S 40.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.4S 40.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.4S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 29.4S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 40.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
072316Z TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
PGTW AND KNES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A COMPACT LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 14S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND A MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 14S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PASSAGE OVER COOL WATER AND A DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW WILL INDUCE GRADUAL DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY
THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120308 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 29.7S 40.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7S 40.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 29.8S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.9S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 39.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 14S HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONVECTION REMAINS
SHALLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TC 14S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH. THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (25 DEGREES
CELSIUS) ARE HINDERING THE ABILITY OF TC 14S TO DEVELOP AND WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD, SPEEDING UP THE WEAKENING TREND. THE COMBINATION OF POOR
SSTS AND DECREASING OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE
SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120309 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 29.5S 39.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S 39.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.5S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 29.5S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 39.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
082220Z TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE AND RECENT FIXES FROM PGTW
AND KNES. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 14S CONTINUES TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION BECOMING SHALLOWER OVER A STILL TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. MINIMAL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER A COOL SEA SURFACE WILL LEAD
TO DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 091500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120309 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 29.5S 37.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S 37.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 29.3S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.6S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 37.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SHALLOW CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO
SEPARATE AS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE LOSING THE SYMMETRIC TIGHTLY
WRAPPED STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE 24 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND
WILL INHIBIT THE ABILITY OF TC 14S TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF
AVAILABLE DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES INDICATING 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST OF TC 14S HAS SHUT
DOWN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, THE ONLY VIABLE VENTING
MECHANISM. THE COMBINATION OF POOR SSTS, INCREASING VWS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC, AND STIFLED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
HAS CAUSED TC 14S TO BEGIN DISSIPATING. COMPLETE DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 100300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120310 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 29.6S 36.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6S 36.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.2S 35.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 36.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
BECOME UNRAVELED AND DISORGANIZED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 092124Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM THE
MICROWAVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ON THE 092124Z TRMM IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE MODERATE VWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND INHIBIT THE
SYSTEM FROM REGENERATING. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_irina_jtwc_advisories.htm
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