Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone KATRINA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1997-1998 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone KATRINA Track Map and Data |
WTPS31 PGTW 980103 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- 16.7S4 152.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 152.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 17.0S8 152.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 17.1S9 153.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 17.1S9 154.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 17.0S8 155.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION 16.8S5 152.3E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P HAS FORMED IN THE CORAL SEA AND IS
NOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 022330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
COMBINATION OF A SURFACE OBSERVATION OF 31 KNOTS FROM
LIHOU REEF (WMO NUMBER 94296) AT 022200Z6 AND A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
IN WEAK STEERING FLOW AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HOURS, THEN MOVE GENERALLY
EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM HAS JUST UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, IT IS UNUSUAL FOR THESE
SYSTEMS TO CONTINUE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR LONGER THAN
24 HOURS, THEREFORE THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER
INTENSIFICATION RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3) AND 040300Z7 (DTG
040151Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980103 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- 16.0S7 152.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 152.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 15.9S5 152.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 15.8S4 153.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 15.8S4 153.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.9S5 154.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION 16.0S7 152.4E2
LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
APPROXIMATELY 300NM OFF THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURROUNDING
SYNOPTIC DATA. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME COOLER AND THE CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE. TC 12P IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE AT 031200Z6 IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1) AND 041500Z0 (DTG
041351Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980104 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- 15.5S1 153.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 153.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 15.4S0 154.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 15.3S9 154.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.3S9 155.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 15.3S9 155.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION 15.5S1 153.6E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 032330Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM=S
INTENSIFICATION HAS HALTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE OUTFLOW ALOFT FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P
(SUSAN) INTERRUPTING THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS AND
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO ONLY INTENSIFY AT A VERY SLOW RATE DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) TO ITS EAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE IN AN EASTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK SPEED
SHOULD SLOW NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH
AND A NORTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4) AND 050300Z8
(DTG 050151Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980104 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- 15.6S2 154.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 154.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 15.7S3 154.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.8S4 154.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 16.0S7 155.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.3S0 155.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION 15.6S2 154.2E2
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(KATRINA) IS EXPERIENCING UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEER FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WHICH IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1000NM TO THE EAST. THE WARNING POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 041130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
48 HOUR PERIOD AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY LIGHT ENVIRONMENTAL
WESTERLY FLOW. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN INTERACTION
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) IS EXPECTED TO
INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHEER IN THE REGION AND CAUSE TC 12P
(KATRINA) TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2) AND 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS (WHPS32
PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
11P (SUSAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980105 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- 15.8S4 154.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 154.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.9S5 154.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 16.0S7 154.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.2S9 154.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.2S9 155.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION 15.8S4 154.3E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON ANIMATION OF INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS
OF 042330Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENTLY,
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS EXPERIENCING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P
(SUSAN). THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THERE IS VERY WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT. BY THE 36 AND 48 HOUR POSITION, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD AS NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGING TO IT=S NORTH STRENGTHENS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING MID LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN SOME MORE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (SUSAN). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5) AND 060300Z9 (DTG
060151Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980105 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- 15.5S1 155.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 155.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 15.5S1 155.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.7S3 156.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.9S5 156.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.1S8 157.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION 15.5S1 155.2E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) HAS REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC
DATA AND SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
TC 12P (KATRINA) IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE SHEER FROM THE
EAST DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN). THIS SHEER IS
INHIBITING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS SIMILAR AS TC 12P (KATRINA) IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL WESTERLY FLOW. TC 12P IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF TC 11P (SUSAN). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9
(DTG 060151Z3) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS (WHPS31 PHNC)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P
(SUSAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980106 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 007
RELOCATED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- 14.2S7 157.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 157.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 14.2S7 158.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 14.5S0 159.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 15.1S7 160.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 30 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 16.2S9 162.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION 14.2S7 157.3E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WAS RELOCATED BASED ON A
052330Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF BETWEEN
35 KNOTS (PGTW) AND 45 KNOTS (KGWC). TC 12P IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF TC 11P (SUSAN). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2
(DTG 061351Z6) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS (WTPS3 PGTW) AND
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980106 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- 13.8S2 158.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 158.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 13.6S0 160.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 13.9S3 161.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 14.4S9 163.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 15.2S8 164.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION 13.8S2 158.8E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS SUBJECTED
TO OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN). CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISSIPATION, OVER WATER, AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4) AND 071500Z3 (DTG
071351Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS
(WHPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980107 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- 12.8S1 160.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 160.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 12.4S7 161.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 12.1S4 163.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 12.7S0 165.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 13.5S9 167.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION 12.7S0 160.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 062330Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TC 12P (KATRINA) IS BEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY
THE INFLUENCE OF TC 11P (SUSAN) WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO
LOOSE A SMALL AMOUNT LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THEN TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THEREAFTER. A CHANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS FOR TC 12P (KATRINA) TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS THE SHEER FROM THE EAST DECREASES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3
(DTG 071351Z7) AND 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS (WTPS3 PGTW) AND
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980107 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- 12.4S7 160.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 160.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 12.2S5 162.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 12.2S5 163.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 12.7S0 165.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 13.6S0 167.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 12.4S7 161.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING
CONSOLIDATION, MAKING IT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO POSITION.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY GAIN LATITUDE. A CHANGE OF
DIRECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 24
HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
BETWEEN SATELLITE DERIVED ESTIMATES OF DVORAK CI4.0
(45 KNOTS) AND CI3.0 (65 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1
(DTG 080151Z5) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS (WHPS31 PHNC) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P
(SUSAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980108 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- 13.2S6 163.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DIRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 163.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 13.7S1 164.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 14.3S8 165.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 14.8S3 166.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 15.4S0 167.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION 13.3S7 163.3E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON 072330Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT ALSO
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE DEVELOPING AN EYE. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING A
071158Z2 SCATTEROMETER PASS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(KATRINA) SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) CONTINUES
TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS
BEING STEERED BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO ITS NORTH AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8) AND 090300Z2 (DTG
090151Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS
(WHPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980108 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- 14.8S3 163.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 163.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.8S4 164.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 16.9S6 165.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 17.9S7 165.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 18.8S7 166.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION 15.1S7 164.0E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS ARE BASED ON
081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH HAS DEVELOPED WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 12P (KATRINA)
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE PERSISTS. AFTERWARDS, TC 12P IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK AS RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD TC 12P (KATRINA) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING AS IT REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081200Z1 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 (DTG
090151Z6) AND 091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS (WHPS31 PHNC) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P
(SUSAN) WARNINGS (WHPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WARNINGS 013 and 014 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980110 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- 15.6S2 164.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 164.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.7S3 163.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 15.8S4 163.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 15.9S5 162.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 16.0S7 162.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION 15.6S2 164.2E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4
KNOTS. OUR WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
092330Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A 19 NM EYE.
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS TREND. TC12P HAS TURNED ABRUPTLY TO THE WEST AS A
RESULT OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY TO
ITS SOUTH. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE THE CYCLONE=S STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND RESULT IN A VERY SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT.
THIS IS A CHANGE FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH
DEPICTED CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG 101351Z1) AND 110300Z5 (DTG
110151Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980110 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 15.6S2 163.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 163.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 15.7S3 162.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 15.9S5 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 16.1S8 160.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 16.3S0 159.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 15.6S2 163.0E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS EYE, INDICATIVE OF
WEAKENING, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY AS TC 12P
(KATRINA) MOVES INTO AN AREA MORE CONDUCIVE TO
INTENSIFICATION. TC 12P (KATRINA) IS CONTINUING TO BE
STEERED BY EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO
ITS SOUTH. THIS INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5
(DTG 110151Z9) AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980111 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- 14.8S3 161.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 161.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 14.5S0 160.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 14.7S2 159.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 14.9S4 158.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 15.0S6 157.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION 14.7S2 161.4E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 102330Z9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
101204Z8 SCATTEROMETER DATA, AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. TS
12P (KATRINA) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12-HOURS THEN TURN TO
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT STEERING FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2) AND 120300Z6 (DTG
120151Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980111 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- 14.5S0 160.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 160.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 14.4S9 159.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 14.5S0 158.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 14.8S3 157.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 15.1S7 155.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION 14.5S0 160.3E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS. THE SYSTEMS STEERING
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 24 HOURS AS LATITUDE IS LOST AND UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR IS ENCOUNTERED. AFTERWARDS, WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED SLIGHTLY BEHIND TC 12P (KATRINA),
THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO REGAIN SOME LATITUDE AND
SLIGHTLY REINTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG
120151Z0) AND 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980112 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- 13.5S9 159.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 159.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 13.2S6 159.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 13.0S4 158.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 13.0S4 157.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 13.0S4 156.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION 13.4S8 159.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
112330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 24-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
INTENSIFICATION IS BEING INHIBITED BY MODERATE UPPER-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR NORTH OF THE 200 MB SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ABATE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER
WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3) AND
130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980112 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- 12.8S1 159.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 159.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 12.5S8 158.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 12.4S7 157.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 12.4S7 156.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 12.6S9 155.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION 12.7S0 159.1E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY
IN THE CORAL SEA. STEERING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH HAS WEAKENED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGING DIRECTLY
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE REGAINED BY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PRESSURE
AREA, WITH RESULTING NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOVEMENT,
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST AS UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR REDUCES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1) AND 131500Z0 (DTG
131351Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980113 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- 13.3S7 157.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 157.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 13.5S9 156.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 13.7S1 155.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 13.8S2 154.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 13.8S2 153.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION 13.3S7 157.5E8
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE
12P (KATRINA) HAS CONTINUED ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED TO 6 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 122330Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 12P
(KATRINA) HAS REMAINED IN AN AREA EQUATORWARD OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH HAS INHIBITED FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOSTLY TOWARDS THE WEST AS IT
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL
EASTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0
(DTG 131351Z4) AND 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980113 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- 13.8S2 155.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 155.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 13.8S2 152.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 13.8S2 151.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 13.9S3 150.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 14.1S6 149.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION 13.8S2 154.5E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 131130Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
65 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SPEED, HOWEVER,
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INDUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY
BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(KATRINA) NEARS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
OUTFLOW ALOFT SHOULD IMPROVE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
SYSTEM=S INTENSITY TO STEADILY INCREASE AFTER THE 24 HOUR
POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2) AND
141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980114 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- 13.8S2 153.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 153.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 13.8S2 151.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.0S5 149.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 14.3S8 149.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 14.6S1 148.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION 13.8S2 152.5E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
AREAL EXTENT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER 24
HOURS, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WEAKENS THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z5 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 (DTG
141351Z5) AND 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980114 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- 13.5S9 151.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 151.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 13.6S0 150.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 13.8S2 149.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 14.2S7 148.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 14.7S2 146.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION 13.5S9 151.2E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 141130Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM HAS
STEADILY DECREASED DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS, THEREFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(KATRINA) SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED AND
TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION WHILE
CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. TROPICAL CYCLONE
12P (KATRINA) SHOULD REMAIN AT APPROXIMATELY THE SAME
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY SOME AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3) AND 151500Z2 (DTG
151351Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980115 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- 13.5S9 150.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 150.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 13.6S0 149.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 14.0S5 148.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 14.5S0 147.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 15.2S8 146.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION 13.5S9 150.0E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPLEMENTED BY 141939Z7 MICROWAVE DATA.
141939Z7 MICROWAVE DATA REVEALS AN EYE FORMING BENEATH THE CIRRUS
OVERCAST AT THE SYSTEM CENTER AND A SEPARATE SPIRAL BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERTURES HAVE COOLED. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH 12 HOURS. AFTER 12 HOURS THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THIS SYSTEM. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED FROM THE LAST WARNING BASED ON
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 141939Z7 MICROWAVE IMAGER DATA
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980115 15:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- 14.0S5 149.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 149.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 14.5S0 149.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 15.1S7 149.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 15.8S4 148.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 16.5S2 147.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION 14.1S6 149.7E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS. THE SYSTEMS EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED AND IS
CURRENTLY ALMOST INDISCERNIBLE AMONGST THE SURROUNDING
CLOUD FEATURES. CONTINUED INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A OVERALL
TREND OF SLOW INTENSIFICATION. TC 12P (KATRINA) IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MODULATED
BY A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. CURRENT RADII BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151024Z MICROWAVE IMAGER
PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG 160151Z4) AND
161500Z3 (DTG 161351Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980116 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- 14.8S3 149.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 149.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 15.6S2 148.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 16.2S9 148.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 16.7S4 147.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 16.8S5 146.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
145 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION 15.0S6 149.1E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
152330Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AUGMENTED BY 151927Z
5 MICROWAVE IMAGER DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P=S (KATRINA) EYE IS NO LO
NGER DISCERNABLE IN VISIBLE
***data missing***
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980116 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z0 --- 15.8S4 149.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 149.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 16.6S3 149.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 17.1S9 148.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
145 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 17.4S2 147.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
145 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 17.5S3 145.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
145 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION 16.0S7 149.2E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS. THIS DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE VEERING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRENGTHENING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LESSEN DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND SHOULD HINDER FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151100Z
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1
(DTG 170151Z5) AND 171500Z4 (DTG 171351Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980117 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- 16.1S8 149.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 149.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 16.7S4 148.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 17.3S1 148.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 17.6S4 147.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 17.7S5 146.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION 16.3S0 149.0E4
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(KATRINA) HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
162330Z5 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SATELLITE DERIVED
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KNOTS. CURRENT WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON SYNOPTIC
DATA FROM WILLIS ISLAND (WMO 94299) AND HOLMES REEF (WMO
94289). TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOSTLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS
THE WEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS LOW TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171351Z8) AND 180300Z2 (DTG
180151Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980117 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- 16.9S6 148.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 148.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 17.5S3 147.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 17.8S6 147.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 17.9S7 146.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 18.0S9 146.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION 17.1S9 148.1E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 181130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) HAS SHOWN
EVIDENCE OF WEAKENING DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 65 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN SHOULD
OCCUR BY THE 24 HOUR POSITION AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE SLOW DURING THE PERIOD
AS THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. THERE IS
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z2 (DTG 180151Z6) AND 181500Z5 (DTG 181351Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980118 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- 16.7S4 148.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 148.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 16.9S6 147.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 17.0S8 147.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 17.1S9 146.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 17.2S0 145.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION 16.7S4 148.1E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND
REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION
OF SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA AND 172330Z6 SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM HOLMES REEF (WMO 94289) AND
FLINDERS REEF (WMO 94290). ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 12P IS ENCOUNTERING STRONG SHEAR FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WHICH
INDICATES THE WINDS FROM THE WEST HAVE WEAKENED. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS IMPROVING. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
SIMILAR AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL
EASTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA WITH
LESS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT THE 48 HOUR PERIOD TC 12P IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z5 (DTG 181351Z9) AND 190300Z3 (DTG
190151Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980118 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 032 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- 16.7S4 149.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 149.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 17.0S8 150.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 17.5S3 150.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 18.0S9 150.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 18.8S7 150.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION 16.8S5 149.8E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) HAS BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS IS A DISTINCT
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, HENCE THE
RELOCATION. NUMEROUS RADAR REPORTS FROM WMO NUMBER 94299,
SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASSES, AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM WMO
NUMBERS 94299 AND 94289 ALL INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED FROM A SLOW WESTWARD COURSE TO AN EASTERLY ONE. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF 181102Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE I IMAGERY, A 181000Z0 RADAR
OBSERVATION FROM WILLIS ISLAND (94299) AND SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS FROM HOLMES REEF (94289) AND WILLIS ISLAND.
HOLMES REEF (94299) INDICATED 50 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AT
180300Z2 AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE
(KATRINA) CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION HAS INCREASED DURING
THIS TIME. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
COMBINATION OF THESE OBSERVATIONS AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. CURRENTLY, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(KATRINA) IS BEING STEERED BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING. THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24
HOURS RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN. IT SHOULD BEGIN
TURNING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 (DTG 190151Z7) AND 191500Z6
(DTG 191351Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980119 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 033
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- 16.9S6 150.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 150.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 17.1S9 150.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 17.6S4 150.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 18.2S1 150.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 18.9S8 150.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 17.0S8 150.2E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) HAS CONTINUED MOVING
TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
SYNOPTIC DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON 182330Z7 SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE. FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME
AS TC 12P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE EAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING. AFTERWARDS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 36 AND 48
HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0) AND
200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980119 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 034
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- 17.9S7 151.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 151.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 19.1S1 152.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 20.1S3 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 21.0S3 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 21.9S2 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION 18.2S1 151.9E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON A 191130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONTINUITY WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM WMO NUMBERS 94296, 94290 AND 94299.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A MORE
SOUTHWARD TURN BY THE 12 HOUR POSITION AS A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS FORECASTED TO
OCCUR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO THIS
WEAKNESS ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9) AND 201500Z8
(DTG 201351Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980120 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- 18.7S6 152.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND
SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 152.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 19.8S8 153.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 20.7S9 153.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 21.6S9 153.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 22.4S8 153.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION 19.0S0 152.9E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION, WIND RADII AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS FROM WMO=S 94296 AND 94298. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AT A DECREASING
SPEED AS IT ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAKENED STEERING
FLOW WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 20000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2) AND 210300Z6 (DTG 210151Z0).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980120 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z5 --- 20.0S2 154.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 154.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 21.4S7 154.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 22.2S6 153.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 22.8S2 153.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 23.4S9 152.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION 20.3S5 154.0E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT ENTERS THE LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WE
EXPECT 12P TO BEGIN WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OUR WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 201230Z8 ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS A COMPLETELY
EXPOSED, TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
WE BELIEVE THE COMPLETE LOSS OF CONVECTION WHICH WE ARE
CURRENTLY OBSERVING TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z5 IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z6 (DTG 210151Z0) AND 211500Z9
(DTG 211351Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980121 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- 20.9S1 154.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 154.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 21.7S0 154.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 22.4S8 153.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 22.7S1 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 22.8S2 152.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION 21.1S4 154.2E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 5
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. ALTHOUGH IT HAS REDEVELOPED SOME CENTRAL
CONVECTION, TC 12P (KATRINA) IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND AFTERWARDS AS IT TURNS WESTWARD. FORWARD MOVEMENT IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
211500Z9 (DTG 211351Z3) AND 220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980121 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z6 --- 21.1S4 154.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S4 154.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 21.5S8 154.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 22.0S4 154.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 22.5S9 154.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 23.3S8 154.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION 21.2S5 154.1E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS QUASISTATIONARY. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 211130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 211130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. TC 12P (KATRINA) IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z6 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980122 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 039
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z4 --- 21.9S2 155.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 155.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 22.0S4 155.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 22.2S6 156.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 22.4S8 156.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 22.8S2 156.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION 21.9S2 155.3E4
LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATLLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE
12P (KATRINA) HAS MOVED SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS
***data missing***
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980122 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z7 --- 21.9S2 155.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 155.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 22.2S6 156.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 22.5S9 156.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 22.9S3 156.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 23.2S7 156.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION 22.0S4 155.9E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 03
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
221130Z9 INFRARED IMAGERY. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
INCREASED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BEGIN DISSIPATING
BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z8 (DTG
230151Z2) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231351Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980123 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 041
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z5 --- 20.2S4 156.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 156.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 19.4S4 156.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 18.8S7 155.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 18.3S2 155.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 18.0S9 154.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
---
REMARKS:
230300Z8 POSITION 20.0S2 156.0E
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(KATRINA) HAS TAKEN A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 222330Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHICH SHOWS A WELL EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED AS
THE SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTHERLY COURSE THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS IT IS EXPECTED THAT HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER
MODERATE SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z5 IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z1 (DTG 231351Z5) AND 240300Z9
(DTG 240151Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980123 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z8 --- 18.9S8 155.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 155.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 17.8S6 155.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 16.8S5 155.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 15.9S5 154.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION 18.6S5 155.5E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 231130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AND
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATING BY THE 36
HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z8
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z9 (DTG 240151Z3) AND
241500Z2 (DTG 241351Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980124 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z6 --- 18.0S9 153.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 153.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 17.7S5 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION 17.9S7 153.6E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DISPLAYS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED DEEP CONVECTION. WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 232330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_katrina_jtwc_advisories.htm
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