WTPS21 PGTW 20130121 04:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 139.5E TO 14.4S 143.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
210232Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
140.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
136.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN CONJUNCTION WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND, SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT 210023Z ASCAT
PASS INDICATED 30 KNOT WINDS WERE LOCATED IN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA
ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (30 TO 31 DEGREES
CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS CREATING
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BASED ON THE FORMATIVE BANDING, FAVORABLE SSTS,
AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220430Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20130121 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSWALD) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210421ZJAN2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSWALD) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 141.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 141.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 15.2S 141.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 14.7S 142.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 14.8S 143.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 15.6S 143.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 16.6S 144.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.7S 144.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 18.8S 144.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 141.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (OSWALD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WELL DEVELOPED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN OLDER
210023Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KNOT WINDS WERE LOCATED IN ALL
QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND ADRM, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ARE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS CREATING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER LAND IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAIN OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, AS AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LLCC
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA WITH AVAILABLE
ENERGY FROM THE WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER THE CORAL SEA. DUE
TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 210421Z JAN 13
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 211430). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
212100Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20130121 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSWALD) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSWALD) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 142.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 142.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 15.0S 143.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 142.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (OSWALD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS, ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER, IR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE WEIPA RADAR DEPICTS
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA,
APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, INDICATE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY TAU 12. THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND ARE
NOT FORECAST TO TRACK OVER THE CORAL SEA. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD OVER LAND BUT DIFFERS
ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE TURN. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE
LLCC AND THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P
(GARRY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_oswald_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]