Updated: 17 June 2020
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[Index] | Tropical Cyclone VICTOR-CINDY : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1997-1998 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS33 PGTW 980210 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WARNING NR 001
THIS WARNING UPGRADES AND SUPERSEDES THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW) FOR THIS SYSTEM
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- 15.4S0 120.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 120.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.5S1 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 15.9S5 116.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 16.6S3 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 17.5S3 112.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION 15.4S0 120.0E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 092330Z7 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED
RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S IS ANTICIPATED
TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND LACK OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG 101355Z5) AND 110300Z5
(DTG 110155Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980210 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 15.8S4 118.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 118.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.0S7 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 16.5S2 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 17.3S1 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 18.1S0 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 15.8S4 118.2E2
LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATTELITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 101130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND 101056Z3 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT WIND RADII
IS BASED ON A 40 KNOT SHIP REPORT IN THE SURROUNDING AREA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
REMAINS ORGANIZED, HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY AND AREAL CONVERAGE. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A MOSTLY WESTERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. AS THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK MORE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST.
AFTERWARDS IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z4 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG 110155Z3)
AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111355Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980211 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- 15.8S4 117.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 117.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 15.9S5 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 16.2S9 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 16.7S4 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 17.0S8 110.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION 15.8S4 117.2E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 102330Z9
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(VICTOR) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH STRENGTHENS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS ITS UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG 111355Z6) AND 120300Z6
(DTG 120155Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980211 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- 15.6S2 115.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 115.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 15.8S4 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 16.0S7 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.3S0 110.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 16.4S1 109.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION 15.6S2 115.3E0
LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST AT
9 KNOTS AND HAS MAINTAINED ITS ITENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 22S CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATION AND
111130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMIANS SIMILAR AS TC22S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD.
AFTERWARDS IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENISFY AS IT BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS
14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120155Z4) AND
121500Z9 (DTG 121355Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980212 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- 15.0S6 113.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 113.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 14.3S8 110.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 14.1S6 108.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 14.0S5 106.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 14.0S5 105.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION 14.8S3 112.5E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON 112330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED THE CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER
THE SYSTEM CENTER ALONG WITH BETTER ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
6 TO 8 HOURS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) HAS
TAKEN A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS
DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF RIDGING TO ITS SOUTH. AFTER 24 HOURS,
THE MOTION TRACK SHOULD TURN BACK MORE WESTERLY AND SLOW SOME
IN SPEED AS THE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z9 (DTG 121355Z7) AND 130300Z7 (DTG 130155Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980212 09:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 06B COR
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- 14.8S3 112.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 112.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 14.7S2 110.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 14.7S2 109.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 14.8S3 107.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 14.9S4 105.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 15.0S6 101.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION 14.8S3 112.1E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED TO 08
KNOTS AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 120532Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM KGWC ANALYSTS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION TRACK FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGING TO THE SOUTH IS STEERING THE SYSTEM.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z0 (DTG 121355Z7), 122100Z6 (DTG 121955Z3),
130300Z7 (DTG 130155Z5) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130755Z1). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION: PERIODICITY OF TC 20S
(ANACELLE) WARNINGS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980212 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- 15.5S1 111.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 111.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.3S0 109.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 16.8S5 107.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 17.2S0 105.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 17.5S3 103.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 17.6S4 99.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION 15.7S3 110.9E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS
DIRECTION THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WEAKENS THE RIDGE. AFTER THIS TIME, WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME AS THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH DISSIPATE. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 (DTG
121955Z3), 130300Z7 (DTG 130155Z5), 130900Z3 (DTG 130755Z1) AND
131500Z0 (DTG 131355Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980212 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- 16.3S0 110.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 110.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 17.3S1 107.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 17.9S7 105.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 18.3S2 102.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 18.4S3 100.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 18.5S4 95.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION 16.6S3 109.5E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 121730 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG 130155Z5), 130900Z3 (DTG
130755Z1), 131500Z0 (DTG 131355Z8) AND 132100Z7 (DTG 131955Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980213 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- 16.7S4 108.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 108.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 17.4S2 106.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 17.8S6 103.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 18.0S9 101.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 18.2S1 98.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 18.5S4 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION 16.9S6 108.3E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
122330Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR)
HAS DEVELOPED A CLOUD FILLED 10NM EYE AS IT CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 102 KNOTS. THE WIND RADII
WERE ADJUSTED USING CONTINUITY FROM A 120220Z7 SCATTEROMETER
PASS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST TRACK SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY PREVENTING ANY FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE 36 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG
130755Z1), 131500Z0 (DTG 131355Z8), 132100Z7 (DTG 131955Z4) AND
140300Z8 (DTG 140155Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980213 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- 17.2S0 107.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 107.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 17.7S5 104.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 18.3S2 101.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 18.7S6 98.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 19.0S0 95.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 19.6S6 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION 17.3S1 106.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
130530Z VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WELL DEFINED EYE THAT FORMED AT 130000Z4 ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
22S (VICTOR) HAS DISSIPATED. RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST 5 HOURS AND IS NO LONGER INTENSIFYING. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
STEERING FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS MID
LEVEL FLOW IS CAUSING TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) TO MOVE
INTO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS ORIENTED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM
DEVELOPING ANY FURTHER, AND SHOULD BEGIN A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. THE SYSTEM=S FORWARD SPEED
SHOULD SLOW A LITTLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z0 (DTG 131355Z8), 132100Z7 (DTG 131955Z4), 140300Z8 (DTG
140155Z6) AND 140900Z4 (DTG 140755Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980213 15:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 011A
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- 17.7S5 106.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 106.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 18.6S5 104.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 19.5S5 101.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 20.1S3 99.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 20.4S6 97.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 20.7S9 93.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION 17.9S7 106.1E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO HINDER OUTFLOW IN THAT QUADRANT. WIND
RADII ARE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEST OF TC 22S (VICTOR). WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 131130 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGER AND A 131058
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 (121955Z3),
140300Z8 (DTG 140155Z6) AND 141500Z1 (DTG 141355Z9). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED NEXT
WARNING TIMES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980213 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- 17.8S6 105.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 105.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 17.9S7 102.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 18.0S9 100.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 18.1S0 097.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 18.3S2 095.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 18.7S6 091.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION 17.8S6 104.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE OF RIDGING POSITIONED TO ITS SOUTH.
THIS RIDGING HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS,
LESSENING THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF THE TC=S MOTION. ANIMATED
WATERVAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS RIDGING
BUILDING TO THE WEST OF TC 22S (VICTOR), HINDERING THE OUTFLOW
ON THIS SIDE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8
(DTG 140155Z6), 140900Z4 (DTG 140755Z2), 141500Z1 (DTG
141355Z9) AND 142100Z8 (DTG 141955Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980214 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- 17.9S7 104.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 104.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 18.1S0 101.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 18.4S3 099.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 18.7S6 096.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 19.1S1 094.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 19.5S5 089.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION 18.0S9 103.5E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 132330Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIND RADII ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM
131559Z4 MICROWAVE DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND IS
EXPERIENCING LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES IN A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING ADVECTED
TOWARD THE WEST BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER 36 HOURS AND ALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(VICTOR) TO MOVE SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 26 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z4 (DTG 140755Z2), 141500Z1 (DTG 141355Z9), 142100Z8 (DTG
141955Z5) AND 150300Z9 (DTG 150155Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980214 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- 17.9S7 103.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 103.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 18.0S9 101.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 18.3S2 098.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 18.7S6 096.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
005 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 19.1S1 094.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 20.0S2 090.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION 17.9S7 102.8E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 140530Z3
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THIS
SYSTEM HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z1 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWI030 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 (DTG 141355Z9),
142100Z8 (DTG 141955Z5), 150300Z9 (DTG 150155Z7) AND 150900Z5
(DTG 150755Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980214 15:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 015A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- 18.1S0 101.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 101.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 18.5S4 99.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 18.9S8 96.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 19.5S5 94.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 20.1S3 92.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 21.5S8 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION 18.2S1 101.0E2
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(VICTOR) CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST AT 12 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 141130Z0 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS, SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC22S HAS
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FAIR OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.
HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS FROM THE NAVY=S
GLOBAL PREDICTION SYSTEM INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 12
HOUR PERIOD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS
25 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG 141955Z5), 150300Z9
(DTG 150155Z7), 150900Z5 (DTG 150755Z3) AND 151500Z2 (DTG
151355Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) FINAL
WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. JUSTIFICATION
FOR COR: CORRECTED WARNING NUMBER.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980214 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- 18.4S3 100.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 100.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 18.7S6 98.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 19.2S2 96.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 19.8S8 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 20.4S6 92.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 21.9S2 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION 18.5S4 99.9E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS AND HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 141730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH
TC22S IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 50 NM TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS THE SAME AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AFTERWARDS, TC22S IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS. TC22S IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z4 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWPWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150155Z7),
150900Z5 (DTG 150755Z3), 151500Z2 (DTG 151355Z0) AND 152100Z9
(DTG 151955Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980215 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- 19.6S6 096.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 096.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 20.5S7 092.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 21.1S4 089.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 21.6S9 087.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 21.8S1 085.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION 19.8S8 095.3E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS. THIS REPRESENTS A RELOCATION FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING POSITION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS, REVEALING AN
EXTREMELY WELL-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS FORECAST TO DECELERATE AS IT CONTINUES
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT DISSIPATES OVER
WATER BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. HOWEVER, THE
CONCENTRATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER
MAY RESULT IN REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION, PROLONGING THE
TROPICAL NATURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2
(DTG 151355Z0) AND 160300Z0 (DTG 160155Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980215 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- 19.9S9 094.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 094.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 20.5S7 091.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 20.8S0 088.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 21.0S3 086.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION 20.1S3 093.6E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST AT 18 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 150530Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE
22S (VICTOR) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DISSIPATES OVER COOLER WATER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 (DTG 151355Z0), 152100Z9 (DTG 151955Z6),
160300Z0 (DTG 160155Z8) AND 160900Z6 (DTG 160755Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980215 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- 20.1S3 92.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 92.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 20.7S9 89.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 21.4S7 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 22.2S6 84.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 23.2S7 81.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION 20.3S5 92.0E1
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(VICTOR) HAS CONTINUED ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151203Z2 MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 151130Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC22S HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY, ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STILL VERY WELL ORGANIZED.
150830Z7 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY DISTINCT CIRCULATION
CENTER AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIGHT WRAPPING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CUMULOFORM CLOUDS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A TRACK
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12 HOURS AND TURN MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. TC22S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151200Z9 IS 19 FEET. SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AT
TWELVE-HOURLY INTERVALS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG
160155Z8) AND 161500Z3 (DTG 161355Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980216 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- 21.0S3 090.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 90.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 21.4S7 087.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 21.9S2 084.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 22.7S1 081.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 23.8S3 079.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION 21.1S4 089.2E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 152330Z4
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ONLY SPORADIC AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
WELL-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. NO CHANGE TO
FORECAST REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK ROUGHLY WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE ANTICYCLONE TO ITS SOUTH. AFTER
24 HOURS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 18 FEET. REFER
TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (DTG 161355Z1) AND 170300Z1 (DTG
170155Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980216 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z0 --- 21.6S9 87.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 87.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 22.1S5 84.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 22.7S1 82.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 23.6S1 80.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION 21.7S0 86.5E9
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(VICTOR) IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161150Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 161130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
ELONGATED AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EVIDENT. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT INTENSITY TROUGH 24 HOURS
AT WHICH POINT TC22S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170155Z9) AND 171500Z4 (DTG 171355Z2). REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980217 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 022
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- 21.7S0 83.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 83.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 22.1S5 79.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 22.6S0 75.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 23.4S9 72.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION 21.8S1 82.1E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM HAS REDEVELOPED CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS
BUT REMAINS ELONGATED AND SUBJECT TO SOME VERTICAL SHEARING.
TC 22S (VICTOR) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171355Z2)
AND 180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980217 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 023
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- 21.5S8 81.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 81.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 21.8S1 78.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 22.4S8 76.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 23.3S8 74.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION 21.6S9 80.4E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 171131Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE
DISTURBANCE BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION ALLOWING TROPICAL CYCLONE
22S (VICTOR) TO TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
WATER BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0)
AND 181500Z5 (DTG 181355Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(BELTANE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980218 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 024
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- 22.6S0 76.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 76.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 23.5S0 73.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 24.5S1 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 25.4S1 66.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 26.3S1 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION 22.8S2 75.5E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND IN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH 48 HOURS. HENCE, THIS WARNING COVERS 48
HOURS VICE 36 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BE APPROACHING COOLER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z5 (DTG 181355Z3)
AND 190300Z3 (DTG 190155Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(BELTANE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980218 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR/CINDY) WARNING NR 025
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- 25.3S0 74.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S0 74.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 28.6S6 73.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 31.9S3 74.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION 26.1S9 74.6E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR/CINDY) HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR/CINDY)
SHOULD TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS IT MERGES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE WATER BY
THE 24 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 (DTG 190155Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (BELTANE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 980219 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR/CINDY) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- 28.5S5 074.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5S5 074.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 30.6S9 075.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 29.0S1 074.9E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR/CINDY) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 15
KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS HARD TO DISCERN ON ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR/CINDY)
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE WATER BY THE 12 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0
IS 11 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_victor-cindy_jtwc_advisories.htm
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