Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone TIFFANY : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1997-1998 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone TIFFANY Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 980124 21:00z
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 241421Z JA
N 98
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 241530 )
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- 17.1S9 121.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 121.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 17.4S2 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 17.7S5 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 18.0S9 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 18.3S2 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION 17.2S0 121.3E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
AND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 241730Z ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER, BY THE 36 HOUR
POSITION, THE SYSTEM=S FORWARD MOTION SHOULD SLOW AS IT NEARS
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S SHOULD STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG
250751Z0) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251951Z3). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 241421Z JAN 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 241530 ). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (LES) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980125 03:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- 17.1S9 121.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 121.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 17.2S0 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 17.5S3 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 18.0S9 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 18.6S5 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION 17.1S9 120.6E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION DUE TO
EASTERLY STEERING BY THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH.
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 13 FEET. IN THE
FUTURE, TWELVE-HOURLY WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 (DTG 251351Z7) AND 260300Z1 (DTG
260151Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980125 15:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- 17.9S7 119.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 119.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 18.7S6 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 19.2S2 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 19.5S5 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 19.6S6 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION 18.1S0 118.9E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED UPON 251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE FORWARD SPEED OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY)
SHOULD SLOW AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ITS
SOUTHWEST BY THE 24 HOUR POSITION. BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION, AND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
ORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY
SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT
CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION AND
THEREAFTER, INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AT A MORE STEADY RATE AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 (DTG
260151Z5) AND 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (LES) WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM. JUSTIFICATION: TO CORRECT TIME OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980126 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- 18.1S0 118.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 118.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 18.5S4 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 18.9S8 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 19.4S4 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 20.1S3 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION 18.2S1 118.6E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW POLEWARD OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. NEAR 48 HOURS, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWARD
MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY
POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 252330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG
261351Z8) AND 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980126 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- 18.3S2 118.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 118.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 18.7S6 117.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 19.1S1 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 19.5S5 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 20.0S2 114.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 20.9S1 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION 18.4S3 118.5E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS
DIRECTION, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING TO THE SOUTH, AS IT
INTENSIFIES. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 260530Z
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN VIEW OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FORECAST TRACK TO THE SOLAR OBSERVATORY LOCATED AT LEARMONTH,
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG
261351Z8), 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6) AND
270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980126 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- 18.6S5 118.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 118.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 18.9S8 117.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 19.3S3 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 19.6S6 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 19.9S9 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 20.6S8 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION 18.7S6 117.9E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON 261130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A CLOUD FILLED
EYE 14 NM IN DIAMETER. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED
UPON AN AVERAGE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND
100 KNOTS. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING SHIP OBSERVATIONS
LOCATED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AT 260600Z4 AND 260900Z7.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TRACKING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A
REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALLOWING FOR SOME
WEAKENING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6),
270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980126 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- 18.6S5 117.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 117.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 18.8S7 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 19.1S1 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 19.4S4 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.7S7 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 20.3S5 110.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION 18.6S5 117.6E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWARD
AT 03 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 261730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR
POSITION FROM WMO NUMBER 94312 (PORT HEDLAND). THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, WITH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATED WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING AT LEAST 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (TIFFANY) CONTINUES
TO SLOW IN FORWARD MOTION AS IT HAS REACHED A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD START TO SLOWLY GAIN FORWARD SPEED BY THE 24 HOUR
POSITION AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) TO GRADUALLY TRACK MORE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PEAK IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN, PARTICULARLY AFTER 36 HOURS, AS IT WILL
TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND MOVE INTO A REGION OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 261800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6),
270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2), 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9) AND 272100Z2
(DTG 271951Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980127 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- 18.5S4 117.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 117.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 18.6S5 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 18.8S7 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 19.1S1 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 19.5S5 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 20.0S2 110.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION 18.5S4 117.1E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 262330Z6
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A 26
NM WELL-DEFINED EYE AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH 12 HOURS AS IT TRANSITS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTER 12 HOURS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STRENGTHENING
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY BY THE
24 HOUR POINT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF OUR STATISTICAL AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECAST AIDS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
RECURVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVE
INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE PROBABILITY OF
THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270000Z9 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2),
271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5) AND 280300Z3
(DTG 280151Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980127 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- 19.0S0 116.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 116.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 19.5S5 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 19.9S9 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 20.2S4 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 20.5S7 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 20.6S8 109.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION 19.1S1 116.7E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS IN A REGION OF WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 270530Z6 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM DAMPIER (WMO
NUMBER 94308). THIS SYSTEM HAS A 20 NM WELL-DEFINED EYE AND
GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
FORECAST REASONING. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS
FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY BY THE 24 HOUR POINT THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY
OF OUR STATISTICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECAST AIDS SUGGEST
THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD RECURVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVE INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5), 280300Z3
(DTG 280151Z7) AND 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980127 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- 19.3S3 115.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 115.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 19.9S9 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 20.3S5 112.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 20.5S7 110.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 20.5S7 109.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 20.5S7 107.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION 19.5S5 115.3E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY TO
9 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271200Z2 RADAR OBSERVATION FROM DAMPIER
(WMO 94308). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE
DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY OF 127 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS SIMILAR AS TC 15S (TIFFANY) IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE WEST AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
TO THE SOUTH. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 24
HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS AN AREA WITH INCREASING WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5), 280300Z3 (DTG
280151Z7), 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3) AND 281500Z6 (DTG
281351Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980127 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- 19.2S2 114.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 114.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 19.2S2 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.3S3 111.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.4S4 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 19.4S4 108.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 19.4S4 106.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION 19.2S2 114.5E1
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
15S (TIFFANY) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AND WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON A COMBINATION OF RADAR DATA FROM DAMPIER (WMO 94308) AND
271730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SHEAR FROM THE WEST WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED. TC 15S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WEST THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IT IS
STEERED BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z8 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7),
280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3), 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0) AND 282100Z3
(DTG 281951Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980128 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- 19.4S4 114.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 114.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 19.6S6 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 005 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 19.8S8 111.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 19.9S9 109.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 20.0S2 107.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 20.0S2 104.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION 19.5S5 113.7E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME COVERED BY CIRRUS OVERCAST, HOWEVER
272142Z8 MICROWAVE IMAGER DATA INDICATES A WELL-FORMED EYE.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 272330Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3), 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0), 282100Z3
(DTG 281951Z6) AND 290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980128 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- 19.4S4 113.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 113.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.7S7 111.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.9S9 109.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 20.1S3 108.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 20.2S4 106.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 20.4S6 103.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION 19.5S5 112.8E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 280530Z8
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(TIFFANY) HAS A 20 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED ONLY
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY)
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENING
IN ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. ALL OF OUR STATISTICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL,
AND SOME OF OUR DYNAMIC FORECAST AIDS SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTH NEAR THE 72 HOUR POINT TOWARD AN ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS ALTERNATE
FORECAST SCENARIO IS MODERATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280600Z6 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 (DTG
281351Z0), 282100Z3 (DTG 281951Z6), 290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8) AND
290900Z0 (DTG 290751Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980128 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- 19.6S6 111.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 111.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 19.8S8 109.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 19.9S9 108.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 20.0S2 106.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 20.1S3 104.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 20.3S5 102.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION 19.6S6 111.3E6
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(TIFFANY) HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AND CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE LAST 4 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS
THE WEST AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM TO THE NORTHWEST
OF LEARMONTH. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED.
ADDITIONALLY, TC 15S (TIFFANY) IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE REMIANDER OF THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 22 FEET. SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS WILL BE
ISSUED AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG
290151Z8) AND 291500Z7 (DTG 291351Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980129 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- 19.5S5 109.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 109.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 19.6S6 108.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 20.0S2 106.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 20.6S8 104.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 21.4S7 102.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 19.5S5 109.4E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. THIS HAS REDUCED THE SYSTEM=S INTENSITY
AS WELL AS ITS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. TC 15S (TIFFANY) IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HIGH VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR
12 HOURS AND CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 282330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7
(DTG 291351Z1) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300151Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980129 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- 19.8S8 108.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 108.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 20.0S2 107.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 20.4S6 106.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 20.8S0 105.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION 19.9S9 108.5E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE SURFACE
RIDGING TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING
RAPIDLY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WATER
BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 (DTG 300151Z0) AND
301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980130 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- 19.3S3 108.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 108.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 18.6S5 107.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 17.9S7 107.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION 19.1S1 108.0E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOME-MID TO DEEP CONVECTION HAS
REAPPEARED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TC 15S (TIFFANY) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(LES) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980130 15:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 018A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- 19.3S3 106.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 106.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 19.0S0 105.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 18.8S7 104.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION 19.2S2 106.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 301100Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
REVEALED A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COMPLETELY
DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE WATER BY THE
24 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310151Z1). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION: TO CORRRECT TIME OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 980131 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- 19.4S4 106.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 106.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 19.3S3 105.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION 19.4S4 106.1E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 302330Z1
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN COMPLETELY
SHEARED AND LACKS ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_tiffany_jtwc_advisories.htm
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