Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone SUSAN : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1997-1998 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone SUSAN Track Map and Data |
WTPS32 PGTW 980103 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- 12.5S8 174.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 174.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 12.5S8 173.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 12.4S7 173.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 12.0S3 173.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 11.8S0 174.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION 12.5S8 174.3E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND
IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF 022330Z VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONTINUITY FROM A 021116Z1
SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY IN WEAK STEERING FLOW AND SHOULD BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY 48
HOURS, NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A WEAK EASTWARD MOTION FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11P. DUE TO ITS LARGE SIZE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3) AND 040300Z7
(DTG 040151Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980103 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- 12.5S8 172.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 172.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 12.7S0 170.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 12.8S1 169.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 13.0S4 168.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 13.3S7 167.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION 12.5S8 171.9E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST
AT 07 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME COOLER
AS WELL. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUTFLOW ALOFT
REMAINS GOOD. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A MOSTLY
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT IS
INFLUENCED BY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040153Z3) AND
041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(KATRINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980104 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- 13.0S4 171.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 171.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 13.2S6 170.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 13.4S8 170.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 13.6S0 169.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 13.9S3 168.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION 13.0S4 171.3E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT
DRIFTS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 032330Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRIFT IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH AT LEAST THE 36 HOUR POSITION AS
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 (DTG
041353Z6) AND 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980104 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- 13.3S7 170.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 170.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 13.7S1 170.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 13.9S3 169.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 14.1S6 168.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 14.5S0 167.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION 13.4S8 170.4E2
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND NOW HAS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 041130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT
SHOWS AN 18NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY
THIS IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. ANIMATION
SHOWS TC 11P (SUSAN) HAS BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED AND
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON
THIS INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS SHOWN BY 041130Z9
ENHANCED IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN AN INTENSE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 11P (SUSAN) IS FORECAST TO
REACH PEAK INTENSITY BY THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AND
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TC 11P
REMAINS SIMILAR AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
HOWEVER, A SHORT TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED
AT THE 12 HOUR PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTERWARDS, TC
11P (SUSAN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4) AND 051500Z1 (DTG
051353Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (RON) WARNINGS
(WHPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980105 03:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- 14.0S5 170.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 170.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 14.5S0 169.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 15.0S6 169.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.6S2 168.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.3S0 168.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION 14.1S6 170.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS
IT DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON A 042330Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED INTO A FORMIDABLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A WELL DEFINED 28NM EYE EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140
KNOTS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN WEAK STEERING FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH AND NUDGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.
THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS NORMAL FOR INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ONCE THEY REACH THEIR PEAK
INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051353Z7)
AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060153Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
12P (KATRINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INITIAL INTENSITY
OF SYSTEM FROM 125 TO 130 KNOTS.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980105 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- 14.8S3 169.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 169.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 15.5S1 169.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.2S9 169.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.9S6 169.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.7S5 168.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION 15.0S6 169.7E3
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE
11P (SUSAN) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY THAT SHOWS A 23NM
DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS GOOD AND HAS INCREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE. TC 11P (SUSAN) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT MOVES THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 48
HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SYSTEM THAT HAS
REACHED PEAK INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051200Z8 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG
060153Z5) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS (WHPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980106 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTD ?VDR?F?
,--
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- 15.6S2 170.0E8
MNFEL?ND ?ACD SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 170.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.5S2 170.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 17.6S4 170.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 18.9S8 171.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 20.1S3 172.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION 15.8S4 170.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 052330Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THAT SHOWS A 26 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT
12-HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND AS THE EYEWALL
BEGINS TO RECYCLE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN
WEAK STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN
TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG
061353Z8) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS (WHPS31 PHNC), AND REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980106 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- 16.5S2 171.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 171.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 17.6S4 172.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 18.8S7 173.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 20.0S2 174.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 21.1S4 175.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION 16.8S5 171.3E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS. THE WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 052230Z
SCATTEROMETER PASS AND A SHIP OBSERVATION LOCATED AT 19S
173E. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ON ITS
PRESENT TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING LOCATED TO THE EAST AND A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0
(DTG 070153Z6) AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS (WHPS31 PHNC) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(KATRINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980107 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY HONIARA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- 17.9S7 172.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 172.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.4S4 174.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.0S3 177.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 22.7S1 179.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 24.5S1 178.0W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION 18.3S2 173.4E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11P (SUSAN) HAS REACH
PEAK INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO START A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND NEAR THE 12 HOUR FORECAST POSITION AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG
071353Z9) AND 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS (WTPS3 PGTW) AND REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980107 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- 19.9S9 174.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 174.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.9S2 177.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 23.8S3 179.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 25.8S5 177.6W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 28.0S0 174.9W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 20.4S6 175.5E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS. THE SYSTEMS EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND SHOWS A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED ELONGATION. TC 11P (SUSAN) IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. WIND RADII
ADJUSTED FOR A SHIP OBSERVATION LOCATED AT 20.0S 172.5E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7) AND 081500Z4
(DTG 081353Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (RON)
WARNINGS (WHPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980108 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- 21.8S1 177.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTH QUADRANT
180 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S1 177.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 23.4S9 178.5W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTH QUADRANT
180 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 24.8S4 174.3W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 26.9S7 169.6W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 30.6S9 164.7W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION 22.2S6 178.8E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN) CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT
ACCELERATES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 072330Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS. THE ASSYMETRIES IN THE
RADIUS OF 35 KNOT WINDS ARE DUE TO AN ANALYSIS OF
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 071745Z4. THE RADIUS OF 50 KNOT
WINDS WERE ADJUSTED DUE TO A 072100Z0 SHIP REPORT OF 50
KNOTS LOCATED AT 20.1N3 172.7E7. THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING
AS IT IS INTERACTING WITH A MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (SUSAN)
SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 36 HOUR
POSITION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P
(SUSAN) SHOULD TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS,
THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD BY 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 29 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). NEXT WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED BY NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI (SEE WHPS32 PHNC
081500). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (RON) WARNINGS
(WHPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_susan_jtwc_advisories.htm
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