WTXS31 PGTW 971226 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z8 --- 11.2S4 132.1E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 132.1E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 11.1S3 133.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 11.1S3 133.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 11.2S4 134.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 11.4S6 134.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION 11.2S4  132.4E0
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURROUNDING
SYNOPTIC DATA SHOWS THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA HAS DEVELOPED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS DEVELOPED
INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA FROM MCCLUER ISLAND
(WMO 94135), CAPE DON (WMO 94129) AND SURROUNDING SHIP
REPORTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT IS
STEERED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. AFTER 12
HOURS TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AS THE
LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WEAKENS. ALTHOUGH TC 08S HAS
INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWER THAN AN AVERAGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. ADDITIONALLY, AT THE
24 HOUR PERIOD TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8) AND
270300Z2. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 971226 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z1 --- 11.1S3 133.2E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S3 133.2E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 11.2S4 134.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 11.6S8 135.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 12.2S5 136.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 12.9S2 137.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION 11.1S3  133.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 261130Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONTINUITY WITH
A SYNOPTIC FIX AT 260300Z1 FROM WMO NUMBERS 94135 AND
94134.  SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM IS STILL INTENSIFYING.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED UPON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM MCCLUER ISLAND (WMO NUMBER 94135)
INDICATING 35 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 260500Z3 AS THE
SYSTEM PASSED NEARBY.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY
AS IT IS LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
08S (SID) SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED EASTWARD BY NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO ITS NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) SHOULD BE STEERED
IN A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 13 FEET.  REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971227 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z9 --- 11.9S1 135.3E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 135.3E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 12.7S0 136.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 13.6S0 137.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 14.7S2 137.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 15.6S2 136.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION 12.1S4  135.6E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY INCREASED SPEED,
ALLOWING FOR IMPACT ON LAND WHILE STILL AT A RELATIVE
EARLY STAGE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 262330Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS WARNING.
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AT A SLOWER THAN AVERAGE RATE
DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AND EXPECTED INTERACTION WITH
LAND. CONTINUED EQUATORIAL STEERING IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO A MORE STANDARD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INFLUENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ESSENTIALLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL CHANGE OF DIRECTION FROM THE CURRENT EAST-SOUTH
EASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD NEAR 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH A
CONTINUING SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9) AND 280300Z3 (DTG
280151Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  09S WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971227 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z2 --- 13.3S7 136.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 136.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 14.4S9 137.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 15.4S0 136.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 16.1S8 135.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 16.6S3 135.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION 13.6S0  136.8E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 271145Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE
SYNOPTIC DATA. TC 08S (SID) IS EXPECTED TO TURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE 12 AND 24 HOUR
FORECAST POSITIONS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7) AND
281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(SELWYN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971228 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z0 --- 15.5S1 137.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 137.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 17.1S9 137.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 17.5S3 135.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION 15.9S5  137.8E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE COMPLETE LAND FALL
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AFTER 12 HOURS, THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RELATIVELY SHARP
WESTWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO LOW TO MID-LEVEL EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. TC 08S (SID) IS FORECAST TO
BE DISSIPATED BY 24 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND
UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 281500Z6 (DTG
281351Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971228 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- 18.1S0 138.0E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 138.0E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 19.6S6 137.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION 18.5S4  137.9E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE
NORTHERN TERRITORY OF AUSTRALIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_sid_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]