WTPS21 PGTW 971118 02:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180151Z NOV 97//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9S7
165.6E8 TO 14.6S1 162.6E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
172330Z6 AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 165.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SOLOMON
ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. 172330Z6 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ORGANIZED BANDS
OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR WINDS INDICATE A WEAK
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. WIND SPEED ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND INTENSITIES OF 25 KNOTS AND
SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 190200Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971118 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU 170151Z NOV 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 180200 )
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z5 --- 11.5S7 164.6E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 164.6E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 12.7S0 162.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 13.8S2 159.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 14.6S1 156.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 14.7S2 153.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION 11.8S0  164.0E1
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 172303Z6 SCATTEROMETER
PASS THAT SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
SYNOPTIC DATA FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND (WMO 91541).
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOLOMON
ISLANDS HAS AN INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS AND IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS CLOUD
BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT WIND
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE DERIVED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND A 172303Z6
SCATTEROMETER PASS OF WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF GUIDANCE FROM THE
BRITISH NUMERICAL MODEL (BRACKNELL) AND THE NAVY=S ONE-
WAY TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL AS BOTH MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
TRACKING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE TO GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. WIND RADII ARE
BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY OF A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 (DTG 181951Z5) AND
190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 170151Z NOV 97 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 180200).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971118 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z8 --- 12.7S0 162.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 162.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 13.9S3 160.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 14.9S4 159.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 16.0S7 158.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 17.1S9 157.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION 13.0S4  162.2E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 181730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN SHOULD OCCUR
BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3) AND 192100Z3 (DTG
191951Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971119 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z6 --- 14.6S1 161.0E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 161.0E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 16.1S8 159.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 17.7S5 158.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 19.4S4 157.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 21.0S3 158.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION 15.0S6  160.5E2
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITIES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 190530Z8 INDICATES AN EYE
FEATURE IS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.  THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN AN AREA WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  AFTERWARDS, TC 05P
IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.  AT THE 36 HOUR PERIOD, TC
05P (NUTE) IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WESTERLY
FLOW AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 14 FEET.  NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6) AND 200900Z1 (DTG
200751Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971119 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z9 --- 15.8S4 160.2E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 160.2E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 17.0S8 159.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 18.1S0 158.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 19.3S3 158.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 20.5S7 158.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION 16.1S8  160.0E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS SINCE IT IS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) CONTINUES
TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE IN THE SAME GENERAL
DIRECTION AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 36 HOURS,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES ABOVE
THE RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD RAPIDLY
INCREASE AT THIS POINT, AND THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
STEADILY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5) AND
202100Z5 (DTG 201951Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971120 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z8 --- 17.5S3 159.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 159.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 19.0S0 158.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 20.4S6 158.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 21.6S9 158.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 22.8S2 158.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION 17.9S7  159.0E5
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND HAS WEAKENED. THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY PEAKED AROUND 70 TO 75 KNOTS ABOUT 09 TO 12 HOURS
AGO. HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED TC 05P (NUTE) DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. A LARGE
ARC CLOUD/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NOTED PROPAGATING
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM TC 05P IN ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN
THE MID-LEVELS AND THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 200530Z0
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF CI3.5 (55 KNOTS)
AND CI4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KGWC AND JTWC SATELLITE
ANALYSTS, RESPECTIVELY, AND THE OUTWARD PROPAGATING ARC
CLOUD. WE EXPECT TC 05P (NUTE) TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO A LOW-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS WILL
COMBINE TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR ON TC 05P AND
CAUSE MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN WAS INDICATED IN OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 (DTG
201951Z8) AND 210900Z2 (DTG 210751Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971120 21:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) WARNING NR 006A AMENDED
AND RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z1 --- 19.5S5 158.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 158.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 21.5S8 158.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION 20.0S2  158.3E7
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) HAS
RAPIDLY WEAKENED DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CLOSEST DEEP
CONVECTION IS LOCATED MORE THAN 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BASED ON
202030Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIFICATION FOR THE
AMENDED WARNING AND RELOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS A MUCH
LOWER INTENSITY OWING TO THE LACK OF ANY CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION, AND THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION OF TC
05P (NUTE) AS SEEN IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1
IS 09 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_nute_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]