Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone LES : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1997-1998 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone LES Track Map and Data |
WTPS32 PGTW 980124 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 231453Z JA
N 98
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 231500 )
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z6 --- 13.5S9 138.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 138.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 12.9S2 136.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 12.7S0 135.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 12.5S8 134.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 12.4S7 133.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION 13.3S7 138.0E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL CONSOLIDATING AND DIFFICULT
TO POSITION. RIDGING DUE SOUTH OF TC 14P IS DOMINATING
STEERING. THIS EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AS IT MOVES
OVER LAND. SOME INTENSIFICATION OF TC 14P IS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO BECOMING SUBJECT TO LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2
(DTG 241353Z8) AND 250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6). THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 231453Z JAN 98
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 231500). REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980124 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- 13.7S1 138.3E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 138.3E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 13.6S0 137.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 13.5S9 136.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 13.5S9 135.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 13.5S9 134.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 13.5S9 134.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION 13.7S1 138.0E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGING
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, AS THIS RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, TC
14P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD SLOWLY. TC 14P IS
ANTICPATED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND
BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 240530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 240600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241353Z8),
242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4), 250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6) AND 250900Z6 (DTG
250753Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980124 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z9 --- 13.9S3 137.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 137.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 13.9S3 136.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 13.9S3 135.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 13.9S3 134.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 14.0S5 134.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION 13.9S3 137.4E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 241130Z1 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240954Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
TO ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING AT ITS PRESENT SPEED
THROUGH THE 12 HOUR POSITION. AFTER 12 HOURS, THE STEERING BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P (LES) SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4), 250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6), 250900Z6 (DTG 25075
3Z2) AND 251500Z3 (DTG 251353Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980124 21:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- 14.2S7 136.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 136.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 14.7S2 136.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 15.0S6 135.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 15.2S8 135.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 15.3S9 134.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION 14.3S8 136.7E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
241730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
45 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (LES) HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO A PASSING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE
IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 36 HOURS. HOWEVER,
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH BY THE 24 HOUR POSITION. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P=S (LES) FORWARD MOTION TO SLOW DOWN
AND EVENTUALLY TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BY THE 48 HOUR
POSITION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH 24 HOURS.
BY 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL WHICH WILL CAUSE A
WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE LAND
BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2)
AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251953Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION
FOR COR: THE SATELLITE IMAGE TIME FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES)
AND MANNOP HEADER FOR 15S.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980125 03:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- 14.4S9 135.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 135.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 14.6S1 134.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 14.7S2 133.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 14.7S2 133.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION 14.5S0 135.5E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MAKING LANDFALL AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG
250753Z2), 251500Z3 (DTG 251353Z9), 252100Z0 (DTG 251953Z5) AND
260300Z1 (DTG 260153Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR:
DIRECTION OF CURRENT STORM MOVEMENT.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980125 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- 14.6S1 134.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 134.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 14.9S4 133.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 15.1S7 132.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION 14.7S2 134.6E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND AND STEADILY WEAKENING.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 250530Z VISIBLE
SATELLLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 (DTG 251353Z9) AND
252100Z0 (DTG 251953Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 980125 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- 14.4S9 133.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 133.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 14.5S0 132.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION 14.4S9 133.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A 251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(LES) HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED OVER THE SYSTEM SINCE IT HAS MOVED
OVER THE LAND. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE LAND AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980128 21:00z
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU
280253ZJAN98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 280300)
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 008 REGENERATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- 14.0S5 129.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 129.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 13.7S1 128.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 13.5S9 127.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 13.6S0 126.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 13.8S2 124.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 14.2S7 122.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION 13.9S3 129.2E4
LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS MOVED WESTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN TERRITIORY OF AUSTRALIA AND HAS REGENERATED IN THE
JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY.
ANIMATION SHOWS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW SURROUNDING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT AS WELL AS NORTHWEST
SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
CONVECTION IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P AND IS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII. CURRENTLY, TC 14P IS TRACKING
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INTERACTION WITH LAND
DIMINISHES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 13 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AT 6-HOUR INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290153Z0), 290900Z0 (DTG
290753Z6), 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3) AND 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980129 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- 14.2S7 128.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 128.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 14.2S7 127.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 14.3S8 125.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 14.5S0 124.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 14.8S3 122.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 15.5S1 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 14.2S7 128.2E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY STEERING OF
A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THIS TRACK CARRIES THE SYSTEM
OVER LAND THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 24 HOURS, CAUSING A TEMPORARY
WEAKENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS CLEAR OF LAND AFFECTS. THE
POSITION AND WARNING INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 282330Z VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TC 14P (LES). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z0 (DTG 290753Z6), 291500Z7 (DTG
291353Z3), 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980129 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- 14.4S9 127.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 127.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 14.7S2 126.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 15.0S6 124.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 15.4S0 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 15.8S4 122.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.7S4 119.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION 14.5S0 127.3E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
INTENSITIES AND WIND RADII ARE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO A SLIGHT DIPPING OF THE SYSTEM=S TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT
EARLY LANDFALL. THE EFFECTS OF LAND SHOULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AS IT
COVERS A GREATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3),
292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9), 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2) AND 300900Z2 (DTG
300753Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980129 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- 14.5S0 127.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 127.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 14.6S1 127.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 14.8S3 126.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 15.1S7 125.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 15.6S2 123.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 16.5S2 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION 14.5S0 127.5E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SHIP REPORT OF 40 KNOTS LOCATED AT
13.6S0 127.6E6. THE CURRENT WIND RADIUS WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIP REPORT, AND OTHER SHIP OBSERVATIONS
IN THE NEARBY REGION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND WEAK
SYNOPTIC STEERING FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE
INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE IT IS OVER
LAND. BY 36 HOURS, MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY ONCE MORE AS LAND INTERACTION DECREASES
AND THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9), 300300Z6 (DTG
300153Z2), 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980129 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- 14.9S4 127.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 127.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 15.4S0 126.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 15.9S5 125.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 16.5S2 124.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.1S9 122.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 17.9S7 119.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION 15.0S6 126.9E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 291730Z2
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
AN AVERAGE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST DUE TO A
SMALL WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM,
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME
MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES). WHILE OVER LAND,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY DUE TO IT=S CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE OCEAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE 36-48 HOUR POSITION AND BE BACK OVER THE OPEN WATER BY 72
HOURS. BY THE 72 HOUR POSITION, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
MORE WESTWARD WITH TIME DUE TO EASTERLY STEERING FLOW AND SHOULD
INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATER AT 291800Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2), 300900Z2 (DTG
300753Z8), 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5) AND 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980130 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- 15.1S7 126.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 126.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 15.6S2 125.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 16.1S8 124.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 16.6S3 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.1S9 121.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 18.1S0 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION 15.2S8 126.2E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER LAND BUT IS MAINTAINING ITS
ORGANIZATION WELL. WARNING INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON
292330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER, FORECAST INTENSITY
AND WIND RADII ARE SUBJECT TO A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY.
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF LAND, A SMALL VARIATION IN THE
ACTUAL TRACK MAY MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE AFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8), 301500Z9 (DTG
301353Z5), 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1) AND 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980130 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z9 --- 16.1S8 125.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 125.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 16.9S6 124.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 17.6S4 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 18.2S1 121.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 18.8S7 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.8S8 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION 16.3S0 124.8E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER LAND, BUT NEAR THE COAST. TC 14P (LES)
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY GOOD LOWER-LEVEL ORGANIZATION WITH GOOD
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER WATER IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 300630 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5), 302100Z6 (DTG
301953Z1), 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3) AND 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980130 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- 16.0S7 124.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 124.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 16.7S4 123.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 17.5S3 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 18.3S2 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 19.0S0 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 20.6S8 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION 16.2S9 124.4E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
301100Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN
RESPONSE TO A CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
INTENSIFYING AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE OPEN
WATER. HOWEVER, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THE 72 HOUR
POSITION SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATER IS 13 FEET AT
301200Z. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1), 310300Z7 (DTG
310153Z3), 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9) AND 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980130 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- 16.1S8 124.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 124.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 16.6S3 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.2S0 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 18.0S9 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 18.8S7 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 20.6S8 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION 16.2S9 123.9E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 301730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35
KNOTS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY OTHER THAN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE FORWARD MOTION
OF THE SYSTEM AND TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY UPWARD
DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. BY THE 72 HOUR POSITION, COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3),
310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9), 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6) AND 312100Z7
(DTG 311953Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980131 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- 16.6S3 123.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 123.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 17.2S0 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.8S6 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.6S5 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 19.4S4 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 21.1S4 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION 16.8S5 123.2E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 302330Z1
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER 48 HOURS THIS SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE COASTLINE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9), 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6),
312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2) AND 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980131 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z0 --- 17.0S8 122.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 122.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.7S5 121.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 18.4S3 120.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 19.1S1 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.8S8 118.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 21.3S6 116.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION 17.2S0 122.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
310530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AUGMENTED
BY 302351Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGER DATA. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DESPITE BEING OVER A COASTAL LAND AREA.
OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, GOOD ELSEWHERE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 48-
AND 72-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES)
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z0 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6), 312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2), 010300Z4
(DTG 010153Z0) AND 010900Z0 (DTG 010753Z6).//
=========================================================================
WARNING 019 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980131 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z3 --- 17.8S6 122.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 122.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 18.3S2 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 18.9S8 121.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.6S6 120.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 20.2S4 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 21.3S6 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION 17.9S7 122.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER WATER AND LAND. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA AND A SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
SIMILAR AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM CONTNIUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND THE
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DIMINISH. THEREFORE, AS
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P CONTINUES A TRACK ALONG THE COAST THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER WATER BETWEEN THE 24 AND 48
HOUR PERIOD WHERE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR. AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH LAND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0), 010900Z0
(DTG 010753Z6), 011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3) AND 012100Z4
(DTG 011953Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980201 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- 18.8S7 122.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 122.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 19.8S8 122.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 20.4S6 121.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 20.9S1 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 21.2S5 120.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION 19.1S1 122.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AT 07 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
312330Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DRY AIR IS
BEING ENTRAINED FROM THE GREAT SANDY DESERT TO THE SOUTH AND
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A SINGLE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOIST MARITIME AIR.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
AND WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEVERAL OF OUR DYNAMIC FORECAST AIDS
SUGGEST AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWEST OVER THE COAST AND MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY THROUGH
ENTRAINMENT OF MOIST MARITIME AIR. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER WILL NOW
ISSUE TWELVE-HOURLY WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES).
SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MOVE BACK OVER THE COAST AND INTENSIFY, SIX-
HOURLY WARNINGS WILL BE RESUMED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG
011353Z3) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980201 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- 20.4S6 122.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 122.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 21.6S9 121.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 22.6S0 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 23.2S7 122.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION 20.7S9 122.1E6
AMIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(LES) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND
OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESERT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND
IT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN THAT
SUGGESTS A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH
THROUGH 24 HOURS WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, DRY AIR FROM THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN
AND WIND SHEAR FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BELOW 35 KNOTS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5
(DTG 020153Z1) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021353Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980202 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- 21.3S6 123.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 123.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 22.0S4 123.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 23.0S5 124.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION 21.5S8 123.2E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH ONLY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 012330Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_les_jtwc_advisories.htm
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