Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ZANE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2012-2013 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ZANE Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20130428 22:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S 154.3E TO 13.8S 150.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 281732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 153.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S
154.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 153.6E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING ORGANIZATION AS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE HAS FORMED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
SOME BROKEN FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. AN 1845Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE INCREASING
ORGANIZATION AS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LLCC, WHICH IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
LLCC, GIVING WAY TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS) AND
FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW. THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IS ADDITIONALLY
BEING AIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 29 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. DUE TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 20130429 22:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/282221ZAPR2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 151.7E TO 13.9S 147.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
292032Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S
151.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
153.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 151.4E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCE INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BEEN STEADILY DEVELOPING OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN
28 TO 32 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF RANGING
FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS, AND AN OSCAT PASS SHOWING WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED BELOW
THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE AS THE LLCC
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130430 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292221ZAPR2013//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.0S 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.7S 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.1S 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.3S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.0S 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 149.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ZANE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE, WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF
INDICATING THE LLCC HAS INTENSIFIED TO WARNING STATUS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED BELOW THE AXIS OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE AS THE LLCC TRACKS WESTWARD, MAKING
LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT OVER AUSTRALIA WILL START THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
BY TAU 48 WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK INTO THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA, DUE TO THE MIX OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS COMPETING FOR THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON
INTENSITY. THIS FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
THE TRACK NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
292221Z APR 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 292230)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 301500Z AND 010300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130430 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 149.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 149.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.9S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.3S 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 12.6S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.8S 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 10.6S 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 148.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ZANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 100 NM DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE WITH A 6 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. WILLIS ISLAND RADAR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS THIS EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND INDICATE
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS. OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS, TC 23P HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) FROM
35 KNOTS TO 60 KNOTS DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 55-65
KNOTS. DUE TO THE RI, THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 23P IS TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER
EASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO OFFSET WBAR, WHICH INDICATES AN ERRONEOUS
RECURVE INTO THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED,
THE FORECAST INTENSITY PHILOSOPHY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED. TC
23P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS BY TAU 24, PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA THEN REEMERGE OVER THE GULF
OF CARPENTARIA. AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND
010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130430 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.0S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.4S 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.4S 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.5S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 10.7S 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 10.2S 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 147.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ZANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND BEGUN A SLIGHT TURN EQUATORWARD
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. AGENCY DVORAK ASSESSMENTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONFIRM A RELATIVELY STEADY INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
15 HOURS. TC 23P SURGED IN INTENSITY YESTERDAY AS A BOOST IN
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OCCURRED SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH A BOOST IN GRADIENT
LEVEL FLOW DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONE MOVING OFF-SHORE OF QUEENSLAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT OF 29 DEGREE SURFACE
WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THROUGH LANDFALL
OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT UP TO LANDFALL. GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEAK ONCE IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN WESTWARD BY A MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CORAL SEA, WHICH IS WEAKENING AND PULLING
AWAY TOWARDS THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. IN ANTICIPATION OF THE WEAKER
STEERING INFLUENCE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HEDGES A LITTLE BIT
SLOWER AND POLEWARD, BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO, CONSENSUS. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY INDICATES RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, PRIMARILY DUE TO VWS.
ALTHOUGH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO REVEAL SOME
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM, SOLID
RADIAL OUTFLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH A WEAK POLEWARD TAP. THE 301200Z
JTWC UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND TOP END OF AUSTRALIA,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM UNDER LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OF VWS ALONG ITS
TRACK. HENCE THE VWS VALUES GIVEN BY THE GUIDANCE APPEAR OVER-DONE,
AND THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS A SLOWER DISSIPATION TREND. TRACK
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS, THEN VERY LOW
AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY (AND HENCE THE
ASSOCIATED STEERING ENVIRONMENT) AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND
012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130501 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.2S 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.4S 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.5S 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 10.8S 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 146.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ZANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN AREA OF RAPIDLY-DECAYING DEEP
CONVECTION. A 010512Z AMSU-B IMAGE SUPPORTS THE POSITIONING,
THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 55-65 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
RESULTING IN THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. TC 23P IS TRACKING UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER
EASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12, PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.
NEAR TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA THEN
REEMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW, WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130501 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 144.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.3S 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 143.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ZANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS AN ELONGATING AND FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED 185 NM FROM THE LLCC. A 011731Z
SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY POOR AS THE CONVECTION HAS FURTHER
DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 30
TO 35 KNOTS AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG TO MODERATE (20-30
KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS PERSISTED OVER
THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A POOR
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23P WILL
DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THESE
POOR CONDITIONS AND WILL FURTHER UNRAVEL AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
CAPE YORK PENINSULA. DUE TO THE OVERALL POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM AND FORECAST UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18
FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_zane_jtwc_advisories.htm
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