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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone NARELLE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2012-2013 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20130107 11:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1S 121.5E TO 13.4S 118.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 070932Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 120.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S
123.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 120.9E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION, WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THIS FORMATIVE BANDING IS ALSO OBSERVED IN A 070734Z SSMI
37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS
APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES NORTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE, PROVIDING GOOD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD, STRONG GRADIENT-INDUCED UPPER LEVEL WINDS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF AUSTRALIA SHOULD FURTHER
ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE A VERY FAVORABLE 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130107 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071051Z JAN 13//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 119.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.3S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.9S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.6S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.4S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.9S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.2S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.6S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 119.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC AND
DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 071653Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
INCREASING ORGANIZATION AROUND THE LLCC AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE
WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM
ALL AGENCIES BASED UPON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 08S IS UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SOUTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA IS ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AT 30
TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS AND REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL SOUTH OF 22S WHERE
THEY BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DECLINE. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 08S
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASINGLY TAKE A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE REACTS TO SEVERAL
TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS PASS TO THE SOUTH. TC 08S WILL
INCREASE TO A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, GOOD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SSTS ARE FORECAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN
TRACK BUT DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF THE POLEWARD TURN. THE
JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS ON THE EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN
TURN, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND
082100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 071051Z JAN 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 071100).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130108 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 12.0S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.4S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.9S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.7S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.7S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.3S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.6S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.0S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 118.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED FORMATIVE
BANDING TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI
LOOP AND POSITIONS FROM MULTIPLE SATELLITE FIXING AGENCIES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS
ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO
35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 08S IS UNDER A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW
AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA IS ENHANCING THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION AT 30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS AND REMAIN FAVORABLE
UNTIL SOUTH OF 22S WHERE THEY BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DECLINE. TC 08S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASINGLY TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AS THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE REACTS TO SEVERAL TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS PASSING TO
THE SOUTH. TC 08S WILL INCREASE TO A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, GOOD OUTFLOW AND HIGH
SSTS ARE FORECAST. LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN TRACK BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF
THE POLEWARD TURN. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND THE LIMITED GUIDANCE, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130108 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.4S 118.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 118.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.8S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.4S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.2S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.4S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.9S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.2S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.0S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 118.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. DESPITE THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, A 080532Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 08S IS LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER WEAK TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
POSITIONED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AMSU
IMAGE AND MSI. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO MODEL, WHICH
TRACKS THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS AND DRIVES THE
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130108 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 12.7S 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.1S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.8S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.8S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.1S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.5S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.6S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.7S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 117.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. IR ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A
081152Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH THE
CENTER LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN INITIAL POSITION. TC 08S IS LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER WEAK TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
POSITIONED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO MODEL, WHICH TRACKS THE
SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS AND DRIVES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND
SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130108 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 117.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 117.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.0S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.8S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.8S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.2S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.4S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.0S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.6S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 116.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED UNDER A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. A 081849Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN INITIAL POSITION BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND 081318Z ASCAT PASS. TC 08S IS LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER WEAK TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
POSITIONED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
55 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDN, WHICH
TRACKS THE SYSTEM WELL WEST OF THE OTHER MODELS AND AT SLOWER
SPEEDS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130109 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.3S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.2S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.4S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.7S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.7S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.5S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.1S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 116.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED UNDER A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERIES. A 082255Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A FORMATIVE EYE
WITH DEEP CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE LLCC. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED UPON THE WELL DEFINED LLCC FEATURE IN
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO
65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC
08S HAS DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER AUSTRALIA AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 08S IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 08S IS CURRENTLY STEERING
WESTWARD UNDER A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THIS STR AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR, WHICH
TRACKS THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE MODEL PACKING AND CLOSER TO LAND.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE
TIGHT MODEL GROUPING AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS. TC 08S IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AND
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130109 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 13.1S 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 116.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.8S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.9S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.1S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.2S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.2S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.8S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.0S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 116.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT MOTION. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE 09/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG STR
WITH STRONG (25 TO 40 KNOT) EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA.
THE DYNAMIC MODELS FORECAST THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR TO WEAKEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER TAU 72,
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK;
HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW MUCH THE STR WILL WEAKEN.
THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 230-
NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE MODELS SHOW TWO DISTINCT
GROUPS WITH NOGAPS AND UKMO DEPICTING A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA WHILE ECMWF, GFS, JGSM AND GFDN SHOW A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
WESTERN GROUP, PARTICULARLY ECMWF AND GFS, AND IS POSITIONED WEST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE ANALYZED STRENGTH OF THE STR,
THE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK SHOWN IN NOGAPS AND THE
UKMO MODEL APPEAR UNLIKELY. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT TRACKS SOUTH OF 20S DUE TO COOLER SST. DUE TO THE INCREASING
SPREAD IN DYNAMIC GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130109 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 115.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.6S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.7S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.0S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.3S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.6S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.9S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.8S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 115.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, A 091029Z SSMIS 37 GHZ DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
AND RECENT MOTION. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS AS WELL AS A
09Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. TC 08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE 09/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG STR WITH STRONG (25 TO
40 KNOT) EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE DYNAMIC MODELS
FORECAST THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER TAU 48, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND VARIES ON HOW MUCH THE STR WILL
WEAKEN. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH
A 230-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 BUT DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS. NOGAPS, UKMO AND GFDN NOW DEPICT A GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA WHILE ECMWF, GFS AND JGSM
SHOW A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES
TO FAVOR THE THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS, AND IS POSITIONED WEST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE ANALYZED STRENGTH OF THE STR,
THE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK SHOWN IN NOGAPS AND THE
UKMO APPEARS UNLIKELY. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT TRACKS SOUTH OF 20S DUE TO COOLER SST. DUE TO THE INCREASING
SPREAD IN DYNAMIC GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130109 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 115.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 115.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.2S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.5S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.7S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.9S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.4S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.9S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 29.6S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 115.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
APRF. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME REPORTING
AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK A
BIT FURTHER WESTWARD BEFORE MAKING A POLEWARD TURN AFTER TAU 48.
PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG
OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN
GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
BEYOND THAT POINT. NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODEL SHOW A STEADY TURN
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK THE SYSTEM INLAND AS IT UNDERGOES
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS AND GFDN
DEPICT A NEARLY STRAIGHT POLEWARD TRACK WITH STEADY WEAKENING AND
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OF A REMNANT LOW AFTER TAU 120. THE ECMWF
MODEL, WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS,
SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING MORE SLOWLY AND FARTHER WESTWARD THAN THE
OTHER MODELS, WITH A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING CIRCULATION FOLLOWING THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS
AND GFDN SCENARIOS, GIVEN EXPECTATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
VERY STRONG THROUGH TAU 96. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES MORE
QUICKLY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, TC 08S
MAY FOLLOW A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD TRACK SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
FORECAST. DUE TO THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN DYNAMIC GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130110 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 115.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 115.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.5S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.6S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.8S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.0S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.0S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.1S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.9S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 115.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A
100031Z SSMI PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND APRF. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION EXPANDING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED AND TURNED SLIGHTLY POLEWARD
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, POSSIBLY DUE TO CHANGES IN A
REORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE LLCC. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS, IT IS
SHOULD TRACK A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD BEFORE MAKING A PRONOUNCED
POLEWARD TURN AFTER TAU 48. PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE BEYOND THAT POINT. NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODEL CONTINUE TO
SHOW A STEADY TURN AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK THE SYSTEM INLAND
AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
GFS AND GFDN DEPICT A POLEWARD TRACK OFFSHORE, WITH STEADY WEAKENING
FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION PRIOR TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE ECMWF
MODEL, SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING MORE SLOWLY AND FARTHER WESTWARD
THAN THE OTHER MODELS, WITH A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING CIRCULATION
FOLLOWING THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE GFS AND GFDN SCENARIOS, GIVEN EXPECTATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG THROUGH TAU 96. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES MORE QUICKLY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, TC 08S MAY FOLLOW A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD TRACK SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF FORECAST. DUE TO THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130110 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 115.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 115.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.2S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.4S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.6S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.8S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.0S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.9S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 32.0S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 115.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
SYMMETRY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND LINED UP WELL WITH SATELLITE POSITION
FIXES FROM VARIOUS AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 20-KNOT NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS);
HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENCED ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC NARELLE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK UNTIL TAU 72 BEFORE THE TC
BEGINS TO RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE
TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS AT TAU 48, DUE TO
WEAKENING VWS, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT CONTINUE
TO DIVERGE BEYOND THAT POINT. NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODEL TRACK THE
SYSTEM INLAND INTO AUSTRALIA WHILE GFS AND GFDN DEPICT A POLEWARD
TRACK OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF MODEL, SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING MORE
SLOWLY AND FARTHER WESTWARD THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDN. DUE TO THE CONTINUED
SPREAD IN DYNAMIC GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130110 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 114.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 114.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.5S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.6S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.8S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.1S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.9S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 29.9S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 33.6S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 114.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW FEEDER BAND HAS FORMED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
DEEPENED, AS EVIDENCED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION
WAS BASED ON A 101029Z SSMI-S PASS SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
FORMING OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE HIGH
END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 07 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 20-KNOT NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS);
HOWEVER, THERE IS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS SEEN ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC NARELLE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK UNTIL TAU 72 WHEN THE TC BEGINS TO RECURVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS AT TAU 48, DUE TO WEAKENING VWS, GOOD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). AFTER TAU 48,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
AFTERWARDS. NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODEL ARE THE LEFT OUTLIERS WHILE
GFDN AND ECMWF ARE THE RIGHT OUTLIERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS
IN THE MIDDLE THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. DUE
TO THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN DYNAMIC GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z,
110900Z AND 111500Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130110 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.2S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.2S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.3S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.4S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 26.0S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 30.6S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 35.0S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 114.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRALIZED CONVECTIVE MASS CONTINUING TO GROW
WITH FORMATIVE FEEDER BANDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE
PGTW CENTER FIX AND IS COLLABORATED BY THE RECENT 101804Z AMSU 89
GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON
THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM 77-90 KNOTS FROM PGTW/KNES AND
APRF RESPECTIVELY, AND WAS INCREASED FROM LAST FORECAST DUE TO THE
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND RECENT HIGHER SATCON ESTIMATES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 08S IS APPROXIMATELY 10
DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTER AND IS UNDER
AN EXTENSION OF THE STR AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS WEAK TO
MODERATE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE EAST AND MAXIMUM DIVERGENCE
RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ANCHORED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC NARELLE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK UNTIL TAU 72 WHEN THE TC BEGINS TO RECURVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS AT TAU 48, DUE TO WEAKENING VWS, GOOD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). AFTER TAU 48,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM. TC 08S IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 120 AS A WEAK SYSTEM AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT WILL
WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE ETT IS COMPLETE. TRACKER
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO THE LATITUDE OF LEARMONTH
(22S) WITH A 75 NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE OUTLIERS (NOGAPS AND GFDN).
THIS SPREAD DOES DISREGARD THE JGSM WHICH TRACKS UNREALISTICALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO STRONG DEEP-LAYERED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTER TAU
48 TRACKER GUIDANCE SPREADS CONSIDERABLY BUT THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS BASED ON THE
EXPECTED DEEP-LAYERED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN TRACKER
GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS
37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130111 03:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 014 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 113.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 113.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.2S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.9S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.9S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.6S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.1S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 33.2S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 113.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN EYE IS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
NASCENT EYE ALONG WITH A 110020Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RANGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
TC 08S IS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH CENTER AND IS UNDER AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS WEAK TO MODERATE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE EAST
AND MAXIMUM DIVERGENCE RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING RADIAL OUTFLOW
AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SMALL EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN ABLE TO RESIDE
JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ACCOUNTS FOR THE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT VICE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. NOT UNTIL TAU 72 DOES IT SEEM THAT
THIS STR EXTENSION FINALLY BECOMES ERODED BY THE APPROACHING DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL ENABLE THE
CYCLONE TO THEN TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND COMPLETES EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120. PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24, AT 110
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO TAU 36. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT
TIME, TC 08S SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VWS
AND VERY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED MORE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO ADJUSTMENTS IN
PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF THE STR EXTENSION
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST OPENS THE CPA TO LEARMONTH
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE JTWC
OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF AND MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND FASTER DURING THE 3-5 DAY FORECAST IN
ANTICIPATION OF ACCELERATION, TYPICAL IN RECURVING SCENARIOS. DUE TO
THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN TRACKER GUIDANCE TRACK FORECAST, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z, AND 120900Z.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECT GRAMMATICAL ERRORS AND INCLUDE
6-HOURLY FORECASTS IN LAST LINE OF REMARKS. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130111 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 113.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.6S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.7S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.9S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.2S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.3S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.7S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 35.1S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 112.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL AND
HAS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A 15-NM RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON THE ABOVE EYE FEATURE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN TWO RIDGE AXES - ONE 10
DEGREES TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE OTHER, 05 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH - IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-2O KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS);
HOWEVER, THERE IS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE CYCLONE, AS
EVIDENCED BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 08S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE IT RECURVES SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE RECEDES
IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS
RECURVATURE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY END OF FORECAST. TC
NARELLE WILL SEE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS, AS VWS, RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST. AFTER
TAU 72, THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TC 08S WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A NARROWER SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130111 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 112.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 112.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.3S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.4S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.5S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.3S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.3S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.8S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 36.6S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 112.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL AND
HAS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A 15-NM RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON THE ABOVE EYE FEATURE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN TWO RIDGE AXES -
ONE 12 DEGREES TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE OTHER, 04 DEGREES TO THE
SOUTH - IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-2O KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THERE IS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE
CYCLONE, AS EVIDENCED BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC
08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE IT RECURVES SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
RIDGE RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS RECURVATURE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY END OF
FORECAST. TC NARELLE HAS PEAKED INTENSITY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
FROM HERE ONWARDS MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 72, THESE HARSH CONDITIONS WILL
EXPONENTIALLY ESCALATE; THEREFORE, THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
THAT TC 08S WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A NARROWER
SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE, WITH NOGAPS AS THE SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER
FROM THE ONSET THEN ERRATICALLY DEFLECTING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. AFTER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OFFSET NOGAPS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z, AND
122100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130111 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 112.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 112.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.1S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.2S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.6S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.4S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.0S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.6S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 111.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN APPROXIMATELY
25 NM EYE AND AN 111753Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION CONTAINED TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS WITH A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE EYE WALL. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION GIVEN THE EYE. INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE
RESIDES JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS UNDER
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-2O KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A CONNECTION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WEAKER
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR ANCHORED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS BEFORE IT RE-CURVES SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE RECEDES IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS
RE-CURVATURE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 96. TC NARELLE HAS
PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN MAINLY DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 72,
THESE HARSH CONDITIONS WILL EXPONENTIALLY ESCALATE; THEREFORE, THERE
IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TC 08S WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT
BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL. OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE
IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE SPREAD INCREASING BEYOND TAU 48. CURRENTLY,
THERE IS ONLY A 70 NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE VORTEX TRACKERS AT TAU 36,
NEAR THE LATITUDE OF LEARMONTH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS JUST
INSIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE WESTERN-MOST OUTLIERS
(NOGAPS AND GFS) AND FAVORS THE ECMWF, WHICH HAS SO FAR BEEN THE TOP
PERFORMING MODEL. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130112 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 111.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 111.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.6S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.7S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.2S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.2S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 28.9S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 33.5S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 111.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN, AS EVIDENT IN THE 120009Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
THE VISIBLE EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE RESIDES JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS UNDER LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A CONNECTION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND WEAKER EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ANCHORED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE IT RE-CURVES
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS RE-CURVATURE WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING
A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 96. TC NARELLE HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 72, THESE HARSH CONDITIONS WILL
EXPONENTIALLY ESCALATE; THEREFORE, THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
THAT TC 08S WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL.
OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE IN THE NEAR TERM WITH
THE SPREAD INCREASING BEYOND TAU 48. CURRENTLY, THERE IS ONLY AN 80
NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE VORTEX TRACKERS AT TAU 36, NEAR THE LATITUDE
OF LEARMONTH. THE SPREAD DOES INCREASE BEYOND TAU 48 DUE TO VARIOUS
DEPICTIONS OF THE STR EXTENSION AND EXTENT OF EROSION CAUSED BY THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, BUT THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST RESIDES NEAR THE
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE ECMWF BASED ON ITS
SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE THUS FAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130112 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.7S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.1S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.1S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.6S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 32.3S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 37.1S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 111.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AS THE SYSTEM IS
NOW EXPOSED TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED
ON THE 15-NM EYE READILY APPARENT ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS INTERPOLATED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102-115 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS DIRECTLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A BIAS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. TC
08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
STR ANCHORED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE IT
RECURVES SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS RECURVATURE WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
BECOMING A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 96. TC NARELLE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 48, THESE HARSH CONDITIONS WILL EXPONENTIALLY
ESCALATE; THEREFORE, THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TC 08S WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL. NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET MODEL ON THE LEFT AND NOGAPS ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THIS TIGHT GROUPING LENDS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z, AND
131500Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130112 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 20.2S 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 111.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.6S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.0S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 25.4S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.3S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 33.8S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 111.7E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130112 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 111.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 111.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.0S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.9S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.3S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.8S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 34.2S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 111.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS CONVECTION HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND SHALLOWED. A 121743Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS SOME ELONGATION AROUND A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC O8S IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
WESTERLIES AND STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM WILL RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS
OVER COOL SST AND WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY
TAU 36 AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD SSTS, A POSSIBILITY STILL REMAINS IN
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE COMPLETING ETT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING
TO CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(NINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130113 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.2S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 25.4S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.2S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.3S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 110.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT TC 08S REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED AROUND A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. A 122228Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK
OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED LLCC READILY APPARENT
IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES AND IS LINE WITH THE LATEST CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
81 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC O8S IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE WESTERLIES AND MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 08S
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THIS STR THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC
08S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU
36 AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DUE TO FORECAST STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD SSTS, A POSSIBILITY STILL REMAINS IN
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE COMPLETING ETT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING
TO CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130113 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 23.2S 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 25.8S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.3S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.9S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 33.7S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 109.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND CLOUD TOPS WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY. A 131229Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL
RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THERFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL
SST AND WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36
AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BEFORE COMPLETING ETT DUE
TO THE COLD SST AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND
141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130114 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 109.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 109.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.1S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.9S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 33.9S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 109.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND AND ONLY SHALLOW CONVECTION LEFT OBSCURING
A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 132232Z SSMIS CONCURS WITH
THE MSI AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 08S IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 24 AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BEFORE
COMPLETING ETT DUE TO THE COLD SSTS AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130114 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 28.1S 109.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 109.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.0S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 34.0S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 110.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH STRONG
WESTERLIES AND UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). A 141102Z
SSMIS INDICATES CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND ONLY REMAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE
DECREASED ORGANIZATION AND DECAYING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT WITHIN 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TC 08S TO WEAKEN BELOW
35 KNOTS BEFORE COMPLETING ETT DUE TO THE COLD SSTS AND STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(EMANG) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130114 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 29.9S 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S 110.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 33.5S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 30.8S 110.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PERTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED AND ACCELERATED
SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED AND DETACHED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION
THAT IS FRAYED AND RAPIDLY DECAYING. ADDITIONALLY, THE SAME ANIMATION
SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVECTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS INDICATE TC 08S IS NOW EMBEDDED
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A COLD CORE LOW. A
141300Z AMSU-B RADIAL/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION REVEALS THAT THE WARM CORE
ANOMALY HAS DISAPPEARED, CORROBORATING THE ABOVE SATELLITE
OBSERVATION. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING
SOUTHEASTWARD DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN VIEW OF THIS, THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 19 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_narelle_jtwc_advisories.htm
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