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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone MITCHELL : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2012-2013 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone MITCHELL Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20121228 09:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1S 111.8E TO 20.5S 109.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 280630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 111.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
112.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 111.7E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING DEVELOPING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM EVIDENT IN A 280510Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THIS DISTURBANCE LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTER, DIRECTLY BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. A 280201Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE, WITH A FEW 30 KNOT
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290930Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121228 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280921ZDEC2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.6S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.3S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.0S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.8S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.6S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
SYSTEM. A 281433Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BECAUSE OF THE
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION.
TC 06S IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA. TC 06S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE
TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF 20S DUE TO COOLER SST (24 TO
26C). TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
280930Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
280930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121229 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 110.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 110.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.7S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.8S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.8S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.8S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 110.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A
282234Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS
LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLES WITH
SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40
KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45
KNOTS, BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING OF CORE CONVECTION EVIDENCED BY
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION.
TC 06S IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA. TC 06S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 DUE
TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF 20S DUE TO COOLER SST (24 TO
26C). TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z,
291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121229 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 110.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.6S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.6S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.6S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 25.5S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 110.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INTIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS WELL DEFINED LLCC
READILY APPARENT IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS TC 06S IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STR THAT IS MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 06S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
TRACKS SOUTH OF 20S DUE TO COOLER SST (24 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC
06S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z,
300300Z AND 300900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121229 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 110.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.9S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.9S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.8S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 26.8S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 110.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED WITH A SMALL COLD
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE BEGINNING TO FORM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE
WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN THE IR AND DECREASING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 06S HAS
MAINTAINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WAS ENHANCING THIS
OUTFLOW HAS FILLED. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS MERIDIONALLY
ORIENTED ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (24
TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE ENCOUNTERED SOUTH OF 20S. TC 06S IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 DUE TO THE DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121229 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 20.0S 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 110.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.9S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.9S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 25.8S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 110.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 06S IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH DIMINISHING DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 291833Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN CIRCLE WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW
BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 291552Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS 30 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS AND A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SCATTEROMETER DATA BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AMSU
IMAGE. TC 06S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ENTRENCHED
OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AS EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST PORT HEDLAND
SOUNDING SHOWING 25 TO 35 KNOT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON A 65-NM
SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 36. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER COOL
SST (LESS THAN 25C) BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND
302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121230 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 110.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 110.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 23.8S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.2S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 109.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 06S IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH DIMINISHING DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 292222Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER. A 291552Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AND A
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS BASED
ON THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE, A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS AND
THE SSMIS WIND PRODUCT, WHICH SHOWED 35 TO 40 KNOT CORE WINDS. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE.
TC 06S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ENTRENCHED
OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AS EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST PORT HEDLAND
SOUNDING SHOWING 25 TO 35 KNOT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON A 85-NM
SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 24. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 24
AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL SST (LESS THAN 24C) AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121230 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 22.6S 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.1S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 109.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
INDICATES THAT TC 06S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH LIMITED
SHALLOW CONVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS NOW
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. A 300457Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONCURS
WITH THE MSI AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS SOME DRY CONTINENTAL AIR BEING
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TC 06S. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SEEN IN IMAGERY. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND
THE MSI LOOP. TC 06S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS
ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLD BY TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL SST (LESS THAN 24C) AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_mitchell_jtwc_advisories.htm
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