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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DUMILE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2012-2013 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20121230 00:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0S 62.5E TO 11.7S 57.2E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
AT 292330Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
61.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S
64.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 61.5E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE LLCC. A 292154Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OF A DEFINED LLCC. A 291734Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATED A STRENGTHENING
LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH IS ALSO REINFORCED BY THE 291910Z OCEANSAT IMAGE. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THE
SYSTEM AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20121231 00:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292351Z DEC 12//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 300000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 59.5E TO 12.9S 55.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 302330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 58.7E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S
59.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 58.7E, APPROXIMATELY 665 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE, PERSISTENT AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 302144Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC WITH A
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND DEFINED
SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 301715Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWED AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER
MODERATE TO STRONG, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER
THE 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121231 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302351ZDEC2012//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.0S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.2S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.0S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.4S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.0S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.6S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM NORTH OF LA
REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN IMPROVING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AN OLDER
310728Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS WERE NEARLY 30 KNOTS, AND WITH
RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, THERE IS GOOD
EVIDENCE THE LLCC HAS BEEN STEADILY IMPROVING. A 311652Z TRMM 37H
PASS SUPPORTS THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, WITH MULTIPLE FEEDER BANDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC,
AND IS PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND CREATING A LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT (10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GOOD SURFACE CONDITIONS THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN BROUGHT UP TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THIS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. SSTS WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE, BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, AS THE LLCC MOVES SOUTH OF 25 DEGREES
SOUTH, APPROXIMATELY AROUND TAU 84. BY TAU 96 VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO HIGH LEVELS (30 KNOTS) AND COMBINED WITH THE DECREASING
SSTS, WILL LEAD TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THIS
FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AS A SHIFTING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRINGS THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND A MID-LATITUDE DEEP
TROUGH CAPTURES THE LLCC BY TAU 120 TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 302351Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130101 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 55.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 55.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.4S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.2S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.2S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.4S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.6S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.3S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 55.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT 12-HOUR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 010540Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
HOWEVER, STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS POISED TO ERODE THE
STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSE TC 07S TO BEGIN TRACING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120. TC DUMILE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WBAR AS THE THE SOLE RIGHT
OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130101 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 12.4S 55.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 55.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.0S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.6S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.6S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.6S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.6S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 29.6S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 36.0S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 55.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A PRIMARY BAND
OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LLCC. THE CONVECTION REMAINS STRONGEST NEAR THE
CENTER AND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE ORGANIZATION
REMAINS WELL DEFINED BUT HAS STRUGGLED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
INTENSIFY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT HAS BEEN WEAK ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LACK OF STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FACTOR LIMITING STRONGER
DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS WAS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS AND SHOULD HELP TO INTENSIFY TC 07S AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WILL TRACK EASTWARD WEAKENING
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE TROUGH
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STR, THE STR ITSELF WILL SHIFT, BRINGING
THE TRACK FOR TC 07S MORE SOUTHWARD. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A
SECOND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA INTO THE
INDIAN OCEAN AND AGAIN WEAKEN THE STR, ALLOWING THE TRACK FOR TC 07S
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTERACTION WITH THE SECOND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 120.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT BEGIN TO
DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130102 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 55.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 55.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.9S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.6S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.3S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.6S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.3S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 32.6S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 39.7S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 55.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AS FEEDER BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A 020520Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, FMEE, AND FIMP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING RADIAL OUTFLOW.
THIS IS READILY EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST THAT HAS WEAKENED FROM THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW PERSISTS. AFTER TAU 48,
THE STEERING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY DECAY. TC 07P WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AND BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130102 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 55.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 55.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.5S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.6S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.1S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.2S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.0S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 54.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A 16-NM
RAGGED EYE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS; HOWEVER, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EYEWALL CONVECTION, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
DIMINISHED. A 021628Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE (BROKEN RING OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT), FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE EAST QUADRANT AND TIGHTLY-
CURVED SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. BASED ON THE IMPROVED EYEWALL
CONVECTION, THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 65
KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES, THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATES OF ABOUT 70 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. TC 07S IS TRACKING JUST WEST OF
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE
AROUND THE STR AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE RECENT
FMEE UPPER-AIR SOUNDING ALSO BOLSTERS THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SHOWING
NORTHEAST FLOW AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS, INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG STR AND
FURTHER SUPPORTING THE WESTWARD BIAS TO THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 07S
IS FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 75 KNOTS BY TAU 12 TO 24 DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOLER SST
(LESS THAN 25C). TC 07S SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
NEAR TAU 48 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY,
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO COLD SST (LESS THAN 20C)
AND STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130103 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 54.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.6S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.7S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.7S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 29.0S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 33.7S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 54.3E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130103 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 22.9S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.2S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.6S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 30.4S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 33.4S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 54.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER FROM THE EAST. A 031615Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE STILL PERSISTING; HOWEVER, THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL CONTINUES TO DEGRADE. THE MAJORITY
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS, BASED ON THE
AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 07S HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AS WELL AS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
BEING CREATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. DUMILE CURRENTLY LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT RECURVES AROUND THE STR
AND STARTS TO ACCELERATE BY TAU 24. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
48. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND RAPIDLY
COOLING SSTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040900Z AND 042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130104 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.1S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 32.1S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 37.3S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 54.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH A RAGGED EYE BUT HAS
STARTED TO ELONGATE AS THE BANDING TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
A 040223Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
MICROWAVE EYE WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL BECOMING SHALLOW AS IT
FURTHER DEGRADES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT TC 07S HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES
TO THE SOUTH AS WELL AS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH HAS
WEAKENED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM DRIVES FURTHER SOUTH. TC
07S CURRENTLY LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT RECURVES
AROUND THE STR AND START TO ACCELERATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. TC 07S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AT TAU 24, AND THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND RAPIDLY COOLING SSTS AS IT COMPLETES ETT.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130104 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 27.7S 55.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 55.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 31.4S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 36.7S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 56.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
SOUTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND FOR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW INDICATED
55 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND HAS STARTED TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH, WILL
START TO DECOUPLE THE UPPER LEVEL FROM THE LLCC AND LEAD TO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. POOR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING VWS
AND FURTHER IMPACT FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO FINISH THE TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130105 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 010A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 010A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 30.9S 58.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.9S 58.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 35.7S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 32.1S 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH A DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
THE ETT IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE WITHIN 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 27 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED MISSING REMARKS.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_dumile_jtwc_advisories.htm
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