Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ANAIS : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2012-2013 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20121012 05:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.4S 72.8E TO 10.3S 68.2E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.0S
72.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8S
72.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 72.3E, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 120126Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE. THE IR
IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AREA OF MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE STRONG
WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (>28
DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT 1000MB. DUE TO IMPROVED STORM
STRUCTURE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121012 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 7.9S 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 9.4S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 10.7S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 11.6S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.3S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.6S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 14.2S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.3S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 8.3S 70.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 121254Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE 01S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH A POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER
TAU 72, VWS IS FORECASTED TO INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO DROP OFF WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
120451Z OCT 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 120500)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121013 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 8.9S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 10.0S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 10.9S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 11.6S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.2S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.1S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.9S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.3S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9S 70.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
STRENGTHENING SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 122213Z TRMM 85GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A
MICROWAVE EYE HAS RECENTLY FORMED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE
TRMM IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE 01S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT JUST NORTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER
TAU 72, VWS IS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL DECREASE, RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121013 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 10.0S 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 10.9S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 11.7S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.1S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 12.7S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.7S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.6S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.4S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED, CONSOLIDATED, AND FORMED A 17-NM
EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENT
CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER
TAU 48, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72 WHERE THE
MODELS DIVERGE. WBAR IS THE LEFT OUTLIER TRACKING THE VORTEX INTO THE
RIDGE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET WBAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140300Z AND 141500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121014 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.1S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.1S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.1S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.7S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.9S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.6S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 66.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE BANDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A WELL DEVELOPED EYE FEATURE WAS
PRESENT SIX HOURS AGO BUT HAS SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED IR IMAGERY
WITH POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS IS BASED ON 4.5/5.0 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC IS
PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING VWS, WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT
VARIES WIDELY IN LATER TAUS ON THE RECURVATURE POINT AND SPEEDS.
THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT
IS FURTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141500Z AND 150300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121014 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 11.4S 65.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 65.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.3S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.2S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.2S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.0S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.2S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.7S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.4S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 65.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AND MAINTAINED A 25-NM
EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. THE
CYCLONE WILL TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN RECURVE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 36,
INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72 WHERE THE
MODELS DIVERGE. WBAR IS THE LEFT OUTLIER TRACKING THE VORTEX INTO THE
RIDGE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET WBAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150300Z AND 151500Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121015 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.3S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.1S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.1S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.6S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.1S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.5S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 64.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYEWALL. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THE EYEWALL ORGANIZATION, WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES SHOWING A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND. THE PREDOMINANT CHANGE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED INTO A REGION
OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (LESS THAN 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS). THE SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR LEADING TO THE EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES THIS WILL BEGIN AROUND TAU 96
AND WILL FINISH BEYOND TAU 120. TC 01S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 96, WHEN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE
STR ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121015 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 13.4S 63.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 63.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.3S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.2S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.1S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.0S 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.9S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.6S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 63.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM NORTHEAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 15/0901Z
AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AROUND
A RAGGED EYE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 102 KNOTS. RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATE TC O1S HAS GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A
REGION OF FAVORABLE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01S IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM AND WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING INTO COOLER WATERS. THESE COOLER SSTS ALONG WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM. TC ANAIS SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AROUND
TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 120. TC 01S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 96, WHEN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE
STR ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121016 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 14.7S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.4S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.0S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.3S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 61.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE PREVIOUS EYEWALL STRUCTURE HAS COLLAPSED BUT PERSISTENT
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW CENTER FIX
LOCATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED DETAIL IN IR.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 55 TO 85 KNOTS FROM FIMP, FMEE, AND PGTW DUE TO THE
152200Z 81 KNOT OBJECTIVE SATCON ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 01S IS SLIGHTLY POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS AND A POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE WHICH IS CAUSING
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM
DIVERGENCE RESIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS ROBUST OVER THIS AREA. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR,
CENTERED EAST OF THE CYCLONE, DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS SSTS ARE IN THE 24 TO
25 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE AND WELL BELOW SUPPORTIVE LEVELS.
ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE UPON THE
SYSTEM AND AID IN THE FORECAST DECREASE. THERE HAS BEEN A FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THAT DISSIPATION BY
TAU 48 IS NOW EXPECTED DUE TO THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH TRACKS THE LLCC INTO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. HOWEVER, TC 01S IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MAKE SUCH A TRANSITION. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LAYS
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE WBAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121016 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 60.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 60.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.8S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.4S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.8S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.1S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 59.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A
160655Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
MODERATE, NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY DUE TO MARGINAL SST (24 TO 25C) AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH RE-CURVES THE SYSTEM,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET WBAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121017 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 57.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 57.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.1S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.3S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 57.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ONLY SLIGHT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. A 162335 SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TC 01S IS
BEGINNING TO ELONGATE AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 01S CONTINUES TO HAVE FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
BUT REMAINS IN MODERATE, NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01S
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO MARGINAL SST (24 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS)
AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH WBAR CONTINUING TO RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121017 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 56.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.7S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 56.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH OF
LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS EXPOSED AND HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED.
THE REMNANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS NOW DISPLACED
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS ABOUT 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE VWS IS EXPECTED
TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS THE CYCLONE PROGRESSES POLEWARD AND WILL BE
THE MAIN FACTOR RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 15 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_anais_jtwc_advisories.htm
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