Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone MIKE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone MIKE Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20140319 02:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9S 160.7W TO 24.7S 160.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 160.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 162.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 160.4W, APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 182028Z ASCAT PASS. THIS ASCAT PASS SHOWS APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS DISTURBANCE, AND STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LLCC AND A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER FAVOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM, PARTICULARLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY UNDERGO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO. THE DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME EARLY SIGNS OF THIS TRANSITION, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BECAUSE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200230Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140319 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190221ZMAR2014// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 159.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 24 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 159.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 23.5S 159.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 25.4S 160.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 27.1S 161.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 29.5S 162.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 159.3W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (MIKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN DISPLACED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 190422Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC THAT IT FAIRLY COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE IR ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE SSMIS IMAGE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WIDELY RANGE FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC MIKE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERSIST. NEAR TAU 24, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE WHILE DRY AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THESE FACTORS WILL ADDITIONALLY BEGIN TO TURN THE SYSTEM INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE STRONGER WINDS MIGRATE TO THE PERIPHERY AND THE CENTRAL CORE WINDS BECOME WEAK. BY TAU 48, TC 20P WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM INTO A COLD CORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD BUT OVERALL AGREES WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO WEAKENING SOONER THAN FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 190230Z MAR 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 190230).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140319 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) FINAL WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) FINAL WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 24.3S 157.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 157.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 27.8S 158.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 158.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (MIKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191925Z METOP- B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 20P IS ENCOUNTERING THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL SUCCUMB TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 15 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_mike_jtwc_advisories.htm
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