Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone LUSI : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone LUSI Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20140309 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 169.0E TO 13.2S 163.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 090600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 167.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 169.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 167.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS STARTED TO FORM IN THE PERIPHERIES. A 090634Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME APPARENT IN THE CDO FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 100900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140309 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090851ZMAR2014// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 167.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 167.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.8S 167.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 15.5S 169.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.5S 171.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.0S 174.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.2S 176.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 30.5S 176.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 33.9S 177.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 167.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE LOOPED CLOCKWISE AND IS NOW POISED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 18P IS JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LAYER REFLECTION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 48, A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. FINALLY, NEAR TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TC 18P TO RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. IN THE NEAR- TO MID-TERM, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STR AXIS, VWS WILL RELAX AND PROMOTE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION - PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK PHILOSOPHY; HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF THE DEVELOPING STAGE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 090900). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140310 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 166.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 166.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 15.2S 167.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 15.5S 168.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.4S 170.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.8S 172.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.2S 175.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 27.8S 176.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 33.1S 175.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 166.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 433 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AND TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A 100531Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM SEEN IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WHILE SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A BREAK OF TWO NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGES (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. TC LUSI IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THIS POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE THE NER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO THE WEST AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE TC 17P POLEWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERSIST. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL START A WEAKENING TREND. THESE FACTORS WILL ALSO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 96 WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARIED IN THE TIMING OF THE NER ASSUMING STEERING IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THEREFORE FURTHER SPREAD LATER IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH, MOST AGREE WITH THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY. DUE TO THIS SPREAD, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULT- MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140310 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 166.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 166.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 15.4S 166.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.7S 168.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 16.6S 170.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.2S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.3S 175.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 29.3S 175.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 35.5S 174.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 166.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A 101651Z NOAA-18 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A BREAK OF TWO NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGES (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. TC LUSI IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THIS POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE NER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO THE WEST AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE TC 18P POLEWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERSIST. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS FROM AN APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL START A WEAKENING TREND. THESE FACTORS WILL ALSO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 96 WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARIED IN THE TIMING OF THE NER ASSUMING STEERING IN THE EARLY TAUS AND FURTHER SPREAD LATER IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MOVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE SPREAD AMONG MODEL TRACKS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140311 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 168.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 168.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.1S 169.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.0S 171.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.4S 173.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.6S 174.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 26.8S 175.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 32.7S 175.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 168.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INCREASED CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF VANUATU. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SUPPORTED BY AN 110436Z TRMM 85-GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT IS CLEARING THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, AS WELL AS A 102232Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 50 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 18P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG A RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. RIDGING IS EXPECTED RE-ORIENT AND BUILD IN TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAUS 36-48 CAUSING A POLEWARD DEFLECTION AND ACCELERATION. AT THE SAME TIME, VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS TC 18P TRACKS POLEWARD, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AS IT INTERACTS WITH MID- LATITUDE BAROCLINICITY, COUPLED WITH DECREASING SSTS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY, WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED OF MOTION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE PRIOR JTWC FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140311 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 169.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 169.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.0S 171.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.4S 173.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.6S 174.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 24.1S 174.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 30.4S 173.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 170.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 491 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 111640Z NOAA-18 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS TIGHTLY- CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVED EQUATORWARD CHANNEL, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ALLOWS TC 18P TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, LEADING TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND BUILD IN TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAUS 24 TO 36 CAUSING A POLEWARD DEFLECTION AND ACCELERATION. BY TAU 48, TC 18P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE, COUPLED WITH DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS. TC 18P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED OF MOTION, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140312 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 18.8S 171.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 171.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 20.9S 172.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.3S 173.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.8S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 28.6S 173.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 171.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED EYE. THIS IMPROVED STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 120341Z TRMM IMAGE, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS, AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 18P IS TURNING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD THEN WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140312 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 173.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 173.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.2S 173.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.8S 173.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 28.5S 173.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 31.5S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 173.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A 15-NM EYE AS CONVECTIVE BANDS FURTHER DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF 65 KNOTS TO THE REFLECT THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE TC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE, AN AREA OF GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES, CURRENTLY AT 20-25 KNOTS, ARE BEGINNING TO RISE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS. TC 18P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE SOUTHWARD DIRECTION. EVEN AS THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW - WHICH IS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WINDS - WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. TC LUSI WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. // ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140313 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 173.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 173.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 26.5S 173.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 29.4S 173.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 32.3S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 173.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 406 NM SOUTHWESTWARD OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 18P HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND FAIRLY WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE MSI ALONG WITH FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STARTING TO COMPLETELY OFFSET THE VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP. TC 18P HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC LUSI IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER TRACK SOUTH ALONG THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ADDITIONALLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD LEADING TO FURTHER WEAKENING. TC 17P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE VWS FURTHER INCREASES FROM THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140313 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 173.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 173.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 29.5S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 173.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GROSSLY ELONGATED AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECAME EXPOSED AND THE CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED SOUTHWARD OF THE LLCC. COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION IS ALSO EVIDENT ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK - AN INDICATION OF IMMERSION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW TO REFLECT THE DELAYED WEAKENING TYPICAL OF EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 18P IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN AN AREA OF HIGH (40-50 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DATA, INCLUDING A 131000Z AMSU-B RADIAL/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION FROM CIRA, INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS NOW A BONA FIDE COLD-CORE LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. //
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_lusi_jtwc_advisories.htm
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