Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone JACK : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone JACK Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20140418 14:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 92.2E TO 15.6S 90.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 91.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 93.3E IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 91.9E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 181032Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING OVER THE LLCC WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS OVERALL BECOME BETTER DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 191400Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140418 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZAPR2014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 91.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 91.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 13.0S 90.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.6S 90.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 14.1S 90.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.0S 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.3S 93.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.5S 95.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 24.3S 98.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 91.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING (TCB) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FURTHER SUPPORTS THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH A 181229Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALING A WELL DEFINED INNER STRUCTURE WITH TCB WRAPPING IN ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND THE PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK FINAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 24S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEARLY UNDERNEATH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AND CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATING GOOD POLEWARD DIFLUENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT SOURCE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) AND MAY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 24S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND INTERACT WITH TC 24S. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU 48 GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW RESULTING FROM THE TROUGH INTERACTION. SEVERAL MODELS, INCLUDING THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC SHOWS SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OFTEN SEEN DURING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, VWS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN TC 24S. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LLCC IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SSTS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS WILL RESULT IN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BEGINNING AROUND TAU 72. THE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN AN INTENSE EXTRA- TROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER COMPLETING ETT PRIOR TO TAU 120. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE WITH HWRF THE EXTREME EASTWARD OUTLIER AND COTC AT THE WESTWARD EXTREME. BASED ON THIS SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MODELS WITH THESE TWO OUTLIERS REMOVED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 181351Z APR 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 181400). ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140419 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 91.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 91.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.3S 90.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.1S 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.8S 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.6S 92.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.4S 92.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.8S 93.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.7S 94.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 91.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WHERE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS A VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION OVER THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 190530Z DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA AT 28-29 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ESCALATE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE STRONG WESTERLIES RESULTING IN POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHWARD, THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG VWS. THIS, IN ADDITION TO COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A RAPID EROSION OF THE SYSTEM, WITH TOTAL DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY END OF FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48; AFTERWHICH, THE MODELS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY - AN INDICATION OF WEAKENING WHEREBY THE TRACKERS BEGIN TO LOSE THE VORTEX. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST ONLY UP TO TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140419 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 90.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 90.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.2S 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.8S 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.4S 91.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.1S 92.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.7S 93.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.2S 94.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 90.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TC 24S HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ITS ORGANIZATION, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 191406Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALED THE SOLID INNER CORE STRUCTURE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSIION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND AGENCY FIXES AS WELL AS AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 24S IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANMIATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 24S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 12, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, AND TC 24S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU 24. AFTER THAT TIME, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VWS BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE DEEP TROUGH AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND MAY ALSO START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL PROCESS AT THE SAME TIME. DYNAMICAL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE ANALYSIS OF THIS INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND AS A RESULT, THERE IS GROWING SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST REALISITC INITIAL REPRESENTATION AND AGREES WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. BASED ON THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH FAVORS THE GFS AND JGSM SOLUTIONS. THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS HAVE ALSO BEEN REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LLCC MAY BECOME UNCOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION AND TRACK MORE CLOSELY WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140420 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 91.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 91.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.8S 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.4S 91.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.1S 92.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.1S 92.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.6S 93.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.1S 94.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 91.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED; HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE ON A 200458Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 200530Z DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS NOW 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE ALSO DIPPED TO 27 CELSIUS. HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG VENTILATION TO THE SYSTEM. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS INFLICTED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF TC 24S. ADDITIONALLY, IT HAS WEAKENED THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. IT APPEARS TC JACK HAS PEAKED INTENSITY AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM HERE ON MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 WHEN THE MEMBERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY - AN INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST - LAID OVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS - UP TO TAU 48 ONLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140420 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 91.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 91.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 15.9S 91.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 16.7S 92.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.5S 92.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.5S 93.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.4S 94.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 91.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION AROUND TC 24S IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BRINGS SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND ELONGATES CONVECTION IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A VERTICAL TILT OF THE VORTEX IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, CORE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LARGELY INTACT, AND TC 24S HAS REMAINED NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY FOR THE TIME BEING THANKS TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE BD-CURVE AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A 201538Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION INDICATES TC 24S HAS SLOWED AND MOVED ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH DISRUPTS THE DEEP- LAYER MEAN FLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DEGRADED ORGANIZATION. TC 24S IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE ENHANCED CONVECTION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF AND VWS IS INCREASING. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE ALSO DIPPED TO 27 CELSIUS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH INCREASING VWS BRINGING ABOUT A RAPID DISSIPATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE WEAKEND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY DRIFT EASTWARD PRIOR TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH TIME MODELS DIVERGE IN DIRECTION AND SPEED, RELATING TO THE STRENGTH OF THE VORTEX REPRESENTATION WITHIN EACH MODEL. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST AND SLIGHLTY SLOWER THAN THE MEAN OF ALL CONSENSUS MODELS BETWEEN TAUS 36-72. BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK ONLY THROUGH TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140421 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 92.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 92.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.0S 93.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.2S 94.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.3S 94.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.7S 94.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.8S 95.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 92.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION EVEN AS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS SHEARED AND ELONGATED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE ON A 210402Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF AND REFLECTS THE SLOW WEAKENING TREND OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED FURTHER AWAY AND IS NOW 10 DEGREES FROM THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE VENTILATION. DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEN EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH MODELS DIVERGE IN DIRECTION AND SPEED, COMMENSURATE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE VORTEX IN EACH MODEL. BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK ONLY THROUGH TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140421 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 93.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 93.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.0S 93.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.2S 94.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.8S 94.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.9S 94.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 93.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 1517Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO SHEAR AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LLCC BEING OBSCURED IN THE IR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS DUE TO THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE AMSU IMAGE ALONG WITH FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS, ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO PRESS IN ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST, WHICH HAS STARTED TO PROVIDE A DEGRADING ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS NOW ASSESSED AT STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) LEVELS AND IS OFFSETTING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC JACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AND QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THE VWS DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BELOW 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD TRAJECTORY BUT VARIES WIDELY AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE VORTEX. DUE TO THE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140422 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 95.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 95.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.0S 96.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 95.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND RAPIDLY-WEAKENED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS INTERACTING WITH AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE SOUTH AND, AS SHOWN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION, IS LIKELY INFUSING DRY AIR. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDES SOLID EVIDENCE OF THE RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SPECIFICALLY, A 220309Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WHILE A 212324Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWED 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND SLOW AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH BUT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_jack_jtwc_advisories.htm
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