Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone IVANOE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone IVANOE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20140404 04:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040321Z APR 14// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 040330)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 80.4E TO 22.6S 81.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 80.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 83.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 80.4E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 040010Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 T0 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 050400Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 157.6E.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140404 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040351ZAPR2014// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 79.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 79.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 19.3S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 22.2S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 25.7S 82.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.7S 85.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 35.9S 93.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 699 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY- CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 041245Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. A 040337Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND BARBS. RECENT IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED A FMEE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO ACCELERATE BETWEEN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 22S SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 040351Z APR 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 040400).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140405 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 81.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 81.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 20.2S 82.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 23.4S 84.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 27.1S 86.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 25 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 31.1S 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 81.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 806 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 042358Z SSMIS PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE BASED ON STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA (041654Z) SHOWING 40 KNOT WIND BARBS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF 22S HAS REMAINED GENERALLY DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, ALTHOUGH A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS EVIDENT IN THE 042358Z SSMIS IMAGE. TC 22S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING, PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT EASTWARD REPOSITIONING OF PAST BEST TRACK POSITIONS AND A LARGER EASTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LAST 12 HOUR STORM MOTION THAN ANTICIPATED. INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM WILL INDUCE THE FIRST PHASE OF EXTRATROPIAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24. TRANSITION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 48. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. HOWEVER, DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL HALT THE INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TYPICAL MODEL FORECAST TRENDS OBSERVED DURING RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140405 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 82.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 82.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 23.9S 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 27.6S 87.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 31.8S 90.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 83.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (IVANOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 960 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051231Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM, LEADING TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (EET) BY TAU 12 AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EET BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140406 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 86.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 25 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 86.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 30.0S 89.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 33.3S 92.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 87.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 995 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 052347Z SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW DVORAK FIX DATA AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A LARGE FLARE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THAT PERIOD. TC 22S IS ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING TC 22S FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE THE FIRST PHASE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE SHOULD ENABLE TC 22P TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY DESPITE PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 061500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140406 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) FINAL WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) FINAL WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 30.3S 88.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 28 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.3S 88.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 34.0S 91.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 31.2S 89.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (IVANOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1664 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT IS BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITH SHALLOWING CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPOSED AND ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS APPARENT IN A 161215Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE LATEST AMSU TEMPERATURE CROSS SECTION SHOWS A BUILDING WARM CORE ANOMALY AT THE SURFACE THAT IS INDICATIVE OF A FORMATIVE WARM FRONT. BASED ON THIS DATA, TC 22S WILL CONTINUE ETT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING A COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 16 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_ivanoe_jtwc_advisories.htm
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