Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone IAN : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone IAN Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PHNC 20140105 02:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8S 176.0W TO 22.4S 175.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 176.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 175.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 176.0W, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 042135Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLOWLY- CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 042040Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 060230Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140105 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 175.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 175.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 19.0S 175.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 19.1S 175.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 19.2S 175.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 19.2S 175.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.1S 176.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.1S 176.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 19.3S 176.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 175.5W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A 051656Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A 60-NM DIAMETER, ASYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DESPITE THE LACK OF A STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL, TC 07P HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND FMEE. TC 07P IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A VERY SLOW AND PERHAPS QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING A WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORTLIVED AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES NEAR TAU 96 AND DEEPENS, HALTING THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND TURNING THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE SMALL SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH THE COMPLEX, QUICKLY-EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE GFS MODEL, THE MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS REMAIN ERRATIC AND ERRONEOUS. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION, WHICH SHOWS THE MOST LOGICAL TRACK. OVERALL, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED PROBLEMS. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 72 WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 050221Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 050230).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140106 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 175.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 175.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 19.0S 175.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 19.0S 176.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 19.0S 176.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 19.0S 176.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.4S 176.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.1S 176.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.1S 175.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 175.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) ALONG WITH THE LAST FRAMES OF MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHICH IS OBSCURING THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC. A 060322Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG THE MSI AND IR ANIMATION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF THE SAME VALUE FROM KNES ALONG WITH NO REAL IMPROVEMENTS IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 07P IS TRACKING QUASI-STATIONARY AND SLIGHTLY ERRATIC AS THIS SMALL SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH COMPETE FOR STEERING INFLUENCES. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS GOING TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO CONTINUED QAUSI-STATIONARY AND ERRATIC MOTION. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND AMPLIFY THE STR WHICH WILL INDUCE A SLOW, MORE POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY HELP INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, BUT AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN FURTHER AND DEEPENS, THE INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE GFS MODEL, THE MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS REMAIN ERRATIC AND ERRONEOUS DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THIS SMALL SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION, WHICH SHOWS A SLOW DRIFT WEST BEFORE MOVING POLEWARD. OVERALL, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140106 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 176.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 176.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 18.6S 176.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 18.2S 176.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 18.0S 177.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.5S 176.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.7S 175.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.3S 173.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 23.9S 172.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 176.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A SMALL TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 061744Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 07P IS DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY ERRATIC, QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AS IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO A LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH COMPETING FOR STEERING CONTROL. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT PERSISTING FOR APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS, MOST LIKELY RESULTING IN QUASI-STATIONARY AND ERRATIC MOTION THROUGHOUT THAT TIME. DYNAMIC MODELS DEPICT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 48. THE RESULTING AMPLIFICATION OF THE STR WILL INDUCE A SLOW, POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LIFECYCLE OF THE STORM, BUT AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND DEEPENS, THE INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE GFS MODEL, THE MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS REMAIN ERRATIC DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE COMPACT SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION, WHICH SHOWS A SLOW DRIFT NORTHWEST BEFORE MOVING POLEWARD. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140107 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 176.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 176.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 17.3S 176.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 17.1S 175.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.7S 175.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.5S 174.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.0S 174.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.8S 173.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 24.9S 171.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 176.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES EVEN INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RECENT 062307Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS SYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION, RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. THE ERRATIC TRACK FOR TC 07P WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WILL TRACK OVER NEW ZEALAND AND CAUSE THE STR TO MOVE EASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THE NER AND STR AROUND TAU 72 WILL CREATE AN IMPROVED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TAKING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IMPROVEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72, BUT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE THE STRENGTHENING TO ABATE, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND. MODEL TRACKERS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140107 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 176.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 176.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.6S 176.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.7S 176.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.1S 175.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.9S 175.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.4S 173.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 23.4S 172.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 26.9S 169.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 176.7W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE (IR) IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY MEANDERING SYSTEM WITH AN OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE AS THE BULK OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED. A 071730Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AS WELL AS A WELL DEFINED CUSP FEATURE WRAPPING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED IN THE IR ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND NFFN. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 40 KNOT WIND BARBS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE ERRATIC TRACK FOR TC 07P WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BETWEEN A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WILL TRACK OVER NEW ZEALAND AND CAUSE THE STR TO MOVE EASTWARD NEAR TAU 36. THE REOREINTATION OF THE NER AND STR WILL RESULT IN AN IMPROVED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TAKING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72, BUT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE THE STRENGTHENING TO ABATE, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND. MODEL TRACKERS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140108 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 177.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 177.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.5S 176.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.1S 176.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.2S 175.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.3S 174.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 22.3S 173.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 26.6S 171.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 32.2S 168.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 176.9W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND NFFN HAVE BEEN STEADY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT DUE TO THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. A RECENT 2358Z GCOM 36H MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE, SUPPORTING THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE ERRATIC TRACK FOR TC 07P WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BETWEEN A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WILL TRACK OVER NEW ZEALAND AND CAUSE THE STR TO MOVE EASTWARD NEAR TAU 24. THE REORIENTATION OF THE NER AND STR WILL RESULT IN AN IMPROVED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TAKING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72, BUT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN, AND THE EVENTUAL START OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT DUE TO THE CURRENTLY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140108 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 176.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 176.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.9S 176.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.5S 175.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.7S 174.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.2S 173.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 23.2S 172.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 26.9S 171.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 30.8S 168.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 176.7W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 081717Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 07P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN THE QUASI- STATIONARY MOVEMENT. AFTER TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA, DOMINATING THE STEERING PATTERN AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS. BY TAU 72, TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SST. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE CURRENTLY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATER TAUS, LENDING A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140109 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 176.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 176.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.1S 176.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.9S 175.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.8S 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.3S 173.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.4S 172.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 26.9S 171.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 30.7S 167.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 176.4W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH TC 07P REMAINS A COMPACT SYSTEM, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE. A RECENT 090552Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES A PINHOLE EYE REMAINS AND HAS BEEN USED IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE TRACK HAS STARTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND APPEARS TO BE BECOMING MORE ENGAGED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER NEW ZEALAND, WEAKENING THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07P. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE STR, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE NER CAUSING AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED FOR TC 07P AROUND TAU 36 TO 48. IN THE LATER TAUS, INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND BY TAU 72. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. AS THE CURRENT POSITIONING ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE RECENT NATURE OF THE TRACK CHANGES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140109 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 175.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 175.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.8S 175.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.7S 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 19.8S 173.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 21.3S 173.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 24.6S 172.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 29.0S 169.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 34.2S 164.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 175.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 091704Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING INTO A WELL- DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO. TC 07P IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A SLOW MOVEMENT. IN THE NEAR TERM, A MID- LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA, DOMINATING THE STEERING PATTERN AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TAU 72, TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SST. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE CURRENTLY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE SLIGHT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKERS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST OVERALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 00900Z AND 102100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140110 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 175.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 175.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.9S 174.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.3S 174.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 21.8S 173.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.2S 173.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 26.1S 172.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 29.4S 170.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 33.9S 163.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 174.9W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 371 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TC 07P HAS STARTED TO STEADILY TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AS IT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P. MSI ALSO SHOWS THE EYE HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AND CLEARED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07P HAS ENHANCED THE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TAU 72, TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SSTS. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL GUIDANCE LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140110 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 174.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 174.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.4S 174.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.0S 173.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.4S 173.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.0S 172.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 28.6S 170.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 34.1S 163.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 174.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 07P TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P. THE IR ANIMATION DEPICTS AN INTENSE, TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH AN 18 NM EYE FEATURE. A 101652Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SHARPLY DEFINED EYEWALL WITH SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE IR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115-127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07P HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. BY TAU 72, TC 07P WILL BEGIN ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SSTS, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL GUIDANCE LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140111 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 173.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 173.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.1S 173.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.7S 172.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.2S 172.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 26.9S 171.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 30.8S 168.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 36.1S 160.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 173.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 412 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT THAT HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND MAINTAINED A 25-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND LINES UP DIRECTLY WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE ON A 110526Z SSMI-S PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC IAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 96. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. // ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140111 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 173.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 173.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 24.2S 172.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.8S 172.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 27.4S 171.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 29.4S 170.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 34.8S 164.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 22.9S 173.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS SUSTAINED ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS WELL AS MAINTAINED A 19-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND LINES UP WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE ON AN 111857Z SSMI-S PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY DESPITE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. TC IAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS FURTHER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS ALONG THE POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND COMPLETE THE ETT BY TAU 72 AS A COLD CORE LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140112 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 24.5S 172.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 172.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 26.6S 171.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 28.4S 170.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 30.2S 169.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 32.2S 167.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 36.9S 160.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 172.0W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ELONGATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, AN INDICATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN THE DEEP CONVECTION THEREBY MITIGATING THE ERODING EFFECT OF THE VWS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE 12-NM EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW EVEN AS IT WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC IAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALSO, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. // ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140112 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 171.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 171.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 28.5S 170.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 30.2S 169.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 32.4S 166.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 35.4S 162.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 171.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 739 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140113 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 29.0S 170.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.0S 170.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 30.9S 168.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 32.9S 166.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 35.4S 161.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 169.9W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 882 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY ELONGATED AND SHEARED AS IT GOT EXPOSED TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 07P IS APPROACHING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140113 21:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) FINAL WARNING CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 017A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 30.5S 168.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.5S 168.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 32.8S 166.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 31.1S 168.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 978 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 131616Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. TC 07P HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL SUCCUMB TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (LESS THAN 24C) AS IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 12. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 18 FEET. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED THE MANOP HEADER TO REFLECT PGTW.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_ian_jtwc_advisories.htm
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