Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GUITO : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone GUITO Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20140217 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5S 40.3E TO 19.9S 39.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 171800Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 40.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 40.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 40.4E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FLARING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 171706Z SSMIS PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 28 DEGREES CELSIUS, FAVORING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND MULTIPLE MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 182100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140218 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172121ZFEB14// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 40.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 40.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.9S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 21.6S 39.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.6S 39.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 25.9S 39.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 30.2S 41.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 33.6S 44.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 36.8S 49.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 40.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVEN IF THE CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE STILL FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 180903Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE WESTERN ARC OF A SYMMETRIC LLCC. THIS IS HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS A GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A POLEWARD BIAS THAT IS ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE TC 15S TO RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE CYCLONE DRIFTS POLEWARD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR A CYCLONE IN A DEVELOPING STAGE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. GFDN IS THE LONE OUTLIER, UNREALISTICALLY TRACKING THE VORTEX WESTWARD AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140219 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 19.4S 39.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 39.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 21.2S 39.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.2S 39.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 25.6S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 28.1S 39.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 32.2S 42.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 35.8S 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 40.2S 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 39.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME TIGHTER WRAPPED WHILE THE FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE REMAINED BROKEN. AN 182227Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED FAIRLY BROAD WHILE THE BANDING HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION ALONG WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 182120Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM KNES AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHILE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADDITIONALLY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE TC 15S TO RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO PEAK OF 70 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVELS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES(SSTS). AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS ALONG WITH DECREASING SSTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TAU 72 AND WILL COMPLETE BY TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140219 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 21.0S 39.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 39.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.1S 39.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 25.6S 39.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 28.2S 39.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 30.9S 41.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 35.4S 46.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 39.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED AS A RAGGED PARTIAL EYE DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55-65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS THAT IS ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE TC 15S TO RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC GUITO WILL BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE CYCLONE DRIFTS POLEWARD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AS THE LONE OUTLIER, ERRONEOUSLY TRACKING THE VORTEX WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140219 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 39.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 39.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 24.1S 38.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 26.3S 38.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 29.1S 39.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 31.8S 41.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 37.1S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 39.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPED INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191534Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TC GUITO IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE TC 15S TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTER TAU 36, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS AREA, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. TC 15S WARNING CYCLE HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO AN EARLY CYCLE AND THE NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140220 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 24.6S 38.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 38.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 27.4S 38.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 29.9S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 32.2S 40.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 34.4S 43.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 39.0S 51.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 38.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION FOR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL DEFINED. THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS NOW LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF TC 15S. THE WEAKENING OF THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS MITIGATED THE STRONGER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS TC 15S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24 THE DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HAMPER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 36 INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS; COMPLETING THE TRANSITION BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140220 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 38.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 38.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 29.4S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 31.6S 39.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 33.9S 41.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 35.6S 44.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 39.9S 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 38.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION, WITH PERSISTENT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201808Z MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE WELL ORGANIZATION AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER, UPPER- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE, HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT. BY TAU 24, THE DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TC 15S. BY TAU 36, INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 60. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140221 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 29.9S 38.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S 38.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 31.8S 39.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 33.3S 41.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 35.2S 43.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 37.2S 46.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 30.4S 39.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. A 210527Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS, BASED ON THE EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND RECENT OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 KNOTS. TC 15S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24. TC GUITO IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140221 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 31.8S 40.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.8S 40.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 33.5S 41.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 35.4S 44.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 37.4S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 32.2S 40.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 211555Z TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TIGHTLY- WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WHILE DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 15S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TC GUITO IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD (35 KNOTS) BEFORE COMPLETING ETT. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140222 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 32.9S 41.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 32.9S 41.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 34.7S 44.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 33.3S 42.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1055 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST. DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME RAGGED, ENLARGED, AND FULLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO CAPTURE THE DELAYED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS WARM CORE AS IT RAPIDLY BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE LATEST AMSU-B RADIAL/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION PRODUCT FROM CIRA. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 12. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO WEAKEN TO BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. //
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_guito_jtwc_advisories.htm
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