Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GILLIAN : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone GILLIAN Track Map and Data |
WTPS22 PGTW 20140308 04:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 139.0E TO 12.3S 142.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 139.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 138.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 072251z SSMIS ADDITIONALLY SHOWS RAPIDLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 090400Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20140308 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080352Z MAR 2014// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 11.3S 140.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 140.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 12.1S 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 12.6S 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 13.1S 140.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.1S 140.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.0S 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.6S 139.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.2S 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 140.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 080842Z WINDSAT CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC HAS BECOME TIGHTER WRAPPED WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND ADRM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY EASTERLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH AFTER TAU 48, SOME WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WHICH WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT DEFLECTION OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE MODERATE TO STRONG VWS IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY RELAX AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH WHICH, COUPLED WITH THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS. THE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS THAT RANGE FROM TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH, TO THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 080351Z MAR 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 080400).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20140309 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 12.8S 140.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 140.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 13.5S 140.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 14.1S 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.7S 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.2S 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.1S 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 16.4S 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 140.3E. TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 22 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECAME SLIGHTLY DISPLACED POLEWARD. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND DEGREE OF WRAP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 17P WESTWARD TOWARDS LANDFALL. TC GILLIAN WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INITIALLY OFFSET THE HIGH VWS AND FAVOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT THE SPREAD IS STILL SIGNIFICANT WITH GFS AS THE NOTABLE EASTWARD OUTLIER. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. // ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20140309 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 140.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 140.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 13.4S 141.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.0S 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 14.6S 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.0S 138.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.7S 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.2S 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 140.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPING NATURE OF THE LLCC AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES HAVE FALLEN TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT EASTERLY JOG AS IT TRACKS ALONG A WEAK EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 17P WESTWARD TOWARDS LANDFALL. TC GILLIAN WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AFTER LANDFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL OFFSET THE HIGH VWS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND FAVORS SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT THE SPREAD IS STILL SIGNIFICANT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THIS SPREAD, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20140310 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 141.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 141.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.1S 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 14.5S 141.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.0S 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 15.5S 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 16.3S 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.5S 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 141.6E. TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF YORK PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A SCATTEROMETRY PASS BEFORE LANDFALL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 17P WESTWARD TOWARDS LANDFALL. TC GILLIAN WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AFTER LANDFALL. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO OFFSET THE HIGH VWS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INDUCE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT THE SPREAD IS STILL SIGNIFICANT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THIS SPREAD, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20140310 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 141.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 141.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 14.8S 140.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.3S 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 15.7S 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 16.0S 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.0S 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.3S 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.2S 135.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 140.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 17P HAS BECOME VERY ILL-DEFINED AND SLOPPY AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME VERY HARD TO DEFINE AND THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME HIGHLY DISORGANIZED. A 101106Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SHOWS SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING LOOSELY WRAPPING WHILE THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IS POORLY RECOGNIZABLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND WAS ADDITIONALLY AIDED BY POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS DUE TO A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE KNES AND ADRM ESTIMATE WHICH HAS DROPPED TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAIR EASTERLY OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WHICH WILL TAKE TC GILLIAN ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM LAND AND VWS SLIGHTLY RELAXES THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER WHICH, TC 17P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST AND START TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD AND HIGHLY ERRATIC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20140311 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) FINAL WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) FINAL WARNING NR 006 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 141.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 141.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.9S 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 141.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON SHOWS VERY BROAD AND WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WEAK WINDS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 KNOTS. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZATION, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. HOWEVER, AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 8 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS21 PGTW 20140321 02:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1S 110.4E TO 12.7S 102.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 109.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 114.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 109.0E, APPROXIMATELY 266 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202207Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONAL, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 220230Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140321 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 9.6S 108.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 108.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 10.0S 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 10.6S 104.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 11.7S 103.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 13.0S 102.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.4S 101.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 17.6S 100.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 18.9S 99.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 107.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 834 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED AS IT TRACKED AWAY FROM LAND WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL- DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN REGENERATED. A 210713Z NOAA-19 IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 210045Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ASCAT DATA BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM APRF. TC 17P IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG A THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR); HOWEVER, THE STR IS FORECAST TO ERODE QUICKLY AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS, CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WEST OF AUSTRALIA. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 17P WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AND TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 96. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). AFTER TAU 72, TC 17P SHOULD WEAKEN, DUE TO COOLING SST AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO TURN THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY ON A WESTWARD TRACK. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140321 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 106.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 106.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 10.4S 104.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 11.2S 103.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 12.3S 102.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 13.6S 101.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.2S 101.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.3S 99.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.7S 96.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 105.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING FEEDING FROM THE EASTERN FLANK. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 211419Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC 17P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE TC TO DRIFT ON A MORE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY. NEAR TAU 72, A SECONDARY STR TRAILING THE TROUGH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS - IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES - ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, CONTRIBUTING TO THE SYSTEMS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 90 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140322 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 10.3S 105.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 105.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 11.2S 103.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 12.3S 103.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 13.4S 102.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.3S 102.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.7S 101.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.6S 99.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 17.1S 95.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 104.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 17P HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WHILE THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED. A 220401Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE WHILE THE BANDING HAS STARTED TO WRAP TIGHTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DEDUCED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED UPON THE INCREASING STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALONG WITH CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO THE RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 17P HAS STARTED TO SLOW AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC GILLIAN IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE MODIFYING STR, WHILE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, ANOTHER STR IS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL ASSUME STEERING, MOVING TC 17P IN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. AS THE STR DRIVES THE SYSTEM WEST, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING OUTFLOW WILL INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WITH SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140322 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 104.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 104.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 13.6S 103.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 15.0S 103.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.1S 102.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 17.0S 101.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.1S 100.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.7S 99.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 18.7S 98.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 104.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND HAS DEVELOPED AN 18-NM SYMMETRIC EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, A WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN TO A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION. NEAR TAU 72. A SECONDARY STR TRAILING THE TROUGH WILL NUDGE A GREATLY-WEAKENED TC 17P WESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AFTER TAU 48, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST THAT IS LAID SLOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140323 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 103.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 103.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 15.2S 103.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.3S 102.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 17.3S 102.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 18.2S 101.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.5S 100.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 20.2S 98.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 103.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC GILLION HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS THE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED AROUND A 15NM SLIGHTLY IRREGULAR EYE. A 230305Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A THICK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL WITH IMPROVED BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110 KTS BASED ON AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC GILLION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS STR THROUGH TAU 36 UNTIL A WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN. AFTER TAU 24, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS VWS INCREASES FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR TRAILING THE TROUGH, WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO MOVE A WEAKENING TC 17P WESTWARD. VWS WILL GREATLY INCREASE AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES AND WILL INDUCE A RAPID WEAKENING TREND WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 96. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD, BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC AND NAVGEM, GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140323 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 103.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 103.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.8S 103.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 18.1S 103.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.1S 103.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 20.2S 103.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.7S 103.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.9S 103.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 23.4S 102.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 103.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM, TYPICAL OF VERY INTENSE CYCLONES WITH CENTRAL WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 120 KNOTS, HAS UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AS THE GEOMETRIC EYE CONTRACTED DOWN TO 12 NM IN DIAMETER. THIS IS READILY APPARENT ON A 231756Z 85GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE. HOWEVER, THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS THAT CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK - AS EVIDENCED BY THE SHARP OUTLINE - HAS COMMENCED. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT THE CYCLONE HAS PEAKED INTENSITY AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON CONGRUENT AND COLLOCATED DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17P HAS MOVED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO A MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AREA. HOWEVER, A STRONG SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS SUSTAINING THE SUPER DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY EVEN TRACK ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. AFTER TAU 72, A SECONDARY STR TRAILING THE TROUGH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE A GREATLY-WEAKENED TC 17P WESTWARD. TC GILLIAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES CONCURRENT TO ITS POLEWARD TRACK. NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY AS VWS SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES (OVER 50 KNOTS), IN PART DUE THE STORM MOTION TURNING AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS HAS SWUNG TO A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 4 RUNS AS MORE MEMBERS HAVE ADJUSTED TO A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. GFDN AND JGSM RETAIN AN EARLY WESTWARD TRACK AND ARE NOW THE OUTLIERS. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS NOTICEABLY MORE EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY; IT IS LAID JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140324 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 103.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 103.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 18.7S 103.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 20.2S 103.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.6S 103.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.3S 103.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.9S 102.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 23.4S 100.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 103.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 17P HAS PEAKED AND HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS THE CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAS STARTED TO CONTRACT AND THE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT HAS CONTINUED TO ELONGATE OUT, WHILE THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED. A 240208Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE WEAKENING TREND AS THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO ELONGATE WHILE THE BANDING HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED, DESPITE THE INNER MOST EYEWALL REMAINING DEFINED. THE TRMM IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO TILT AS THE EYE FEATURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE FEATURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW LEVEL DISPLACEMENT, AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 120 KNOTS BASED UPON THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE AND FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS NOW STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) LEVELS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ARE STARTING TO OFFSET THE POSITIVE EFFECTS OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC GILLION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO BE SEVERELY WEAKENED BY STRONG VWS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY EVEN TRACK ERRATICALLY. AFTER TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR TRAILING THE TROUGH WILL ASSUME STEERING BY TAU 72 AND DRIVE THE WEAKENED TC 17P WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY AFTERWARDS, AS VWS SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES (OVER 50 KNOTS), IN PART DUE THE STORM MOTION TURNING AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD (35 KNOTS) BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME SEVERELY BIFURCATED AND ERRATIC WITH OVER A 300NM DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS BY TAU 36. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140324 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 103.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 103.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.7S 103.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 20.7S 104.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.7S 104.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.5S 104.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.3S 103.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 103.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE REMAINS ELONGATED WITH WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241701Z TRMM COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30+ KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), IMPACTING THE STRUCTURE. TC GILLIAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO BE SEVERELY WEAKENED BY STRONG VWS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR, TC 17P WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AND TRACK ERRATICALLY. AFTER TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR TRAILING THE TROUGH WILL ASSUME STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL DRIVE TC 17P WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, TC GILLIAN IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS VWS SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES (40+ KNOTS) LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 OR EVEN SOONER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIFURCATING SCENARIO AMONG MODEL TRACKERS, SHOWING BOTH WESTWARD AND EASTWARD TRACKS BY TAU 36. AVAILABLE TRACKERS INCLUDING GFDN, NVGM, AND CTCX INDICATE AN EASTWARD RACK TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MOVEMENT AND THIS LARGE SPREAD IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140325 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 103.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 103.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 20.4S 103.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 20.7S 102.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 103.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 250532Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 250519Z AMSR2 PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 17P HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 17P IS CURRENTLY MOVING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE DISSIPATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FALLING BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140325 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) FINAL WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) FINAL WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 103.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 103.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.9S 102.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 103.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 596 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS DIMINISHING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS EVIDENT IN A 251519Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 251518Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 35 TO 40 KNOT CIRCULATION, WHICH SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. HOWEVER, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TC 17P, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE MODELS GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 16 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_gillian_jtwc_advisories.htm
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