Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone FOBANE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20140205 23:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 285 NM RADIUS OF 12.6S 70.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 052300Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 72.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S
72.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 72.0E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING SLOWLY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 051656Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 051856Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER (20 TO 25 KNOT) WINDS IN THE CORE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. WARM (GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING CONVECTION AND
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062330Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140206 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062321Z FEB 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 70.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 70.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.5S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.1S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.1S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.7S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.1S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.6S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.8S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 70.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONSOLIDATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE SLOWLY WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061730Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND IS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES A 30 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH 35 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND HEDGES HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
TC 14S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING
TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEAR
TERM AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. AFTER TAU
48, TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WILL
DOMINATE THE STEERING PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOREOVER, IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM
(GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, ALLOWING
THE INTENSITY TO PEAK AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DUE TO A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND A SLIGHT SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE
MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND
072100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 052321Z FEB 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 052330). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140207 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 70.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 70.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.4S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.8S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.3S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.0S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.3S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.1S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.2S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 70.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 814 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, A
070309Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING. A
070436Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT
RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO
MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) BUT IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED
ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO SLOW SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEAR
TERM AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. AFTER TAU
36, TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
ALLOWING THE INTENSITY TO PEAK AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DUE TO A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND A SLIGHT SPREAD AMONG
AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS IN THE EARLY TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(EDILSON) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 69.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.4S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.8S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.5S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.8S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.4S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.3S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071709Z METOP-B
37 COMPOSITE MICROWAVE MAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 071711Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO SLOW SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEAR
TERM AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. BY TAU
48, TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS FORECAST
TO HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS A RESTRICTS OUTFLOW. BY TAU 72, TC
14S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. DUE TO A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND A SLIGHT SPREAD AMONG
AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS IN THE EARLY TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(EDILSON) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140208 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.9S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.2S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.9S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.4S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.1S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.2S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 70.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, ALBEIT SHALLOW CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE, IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BASED
ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS, THE LLCC
APPEARS TO HAVE LOOPED IN A CLOCKWISE MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 080418Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FIMP. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 06 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 20-KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS NUDGED THE CYCLONE FROM A COL
AREA AND IS NOW STEERING IT EASTWARD. AFTER TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE
CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 14S IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
INTENSIFY DUE TO THE SUBSIDENT IMPACT OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH. TC FOBANE WILL PEAK AT 45 KNOTS BEFORE IT GETS ERODED
BY INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY TAU 96. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVENTUAL
SOUTHWESTWARD STORM TRACK BUT IS WIDELY SPREAD, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140208 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 71.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 71.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.5S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.7S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.6S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.6S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.4S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.0S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 72.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH FLARING AND BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION WHICH
CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
081648Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONSOLIDATION ALTHOUGH THE BANDING FEATURES ARE BROKEN AND CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A CURRENTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PROVIDING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING ONLY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC FOBANE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT IS BUILDING IN SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STR IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AS IT TURNS TC 14S BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES
THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY,
REACHING A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST AS IF IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND IF IT OPENS DISTANCE IT COULD ALLOW FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU
48, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AND LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A SLIGHT SPREAD
IN THE TRACKERS THROUGH THE TURN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140209 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 73.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 73.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.7S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.0S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.5S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.5S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.1S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.0S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 28.9S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 73.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 514 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A DIMPLE FEATURE ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
IN THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FIMP. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 06 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 12, A MID-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DEFLECT
THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD. TC FOBANE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP TO 70
KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
PERSIST. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 BEFORE IT SIGNIFICANTLY
SPREADS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140209 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 75.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 75.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.8S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.6S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.3S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.8S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.6S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 27.9S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.0S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 75.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (IR) SHOWS THAT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TC 14S HAS BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AND TIGHTER WRAPPED DESPITE WANING CONVECTION DUE
TO INCREASING SHEAR FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. A RECENT TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
DECREASED IN SIZE AS IT CONSOLIDATED WHILE SEVERAL PREVIOUS
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWED A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS FALLEN
APART IN THE LATEST TRMM IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THE FAIRLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN IN THE IR LOOP
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND FMEE THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG
(20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW. TC 14S HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND DEFLECT THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD. TC FOBANE IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTERWARDS, DECREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72
BEFORE IT SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140210 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 22.5S 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 72.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.6S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.7S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.5S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.7S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.6S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 71.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 973 NM
EAST OF ST. DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECAME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS
THE SYSTEM ACCELERATED SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST ASSUMED STEERING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, A
MID-LATITUDE LOW MOVED TO JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE AND IS DRASTICALLY
ERODING THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE STR IS
PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM FOR THE REMNANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 14S. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
TRACK AND GRADUALLY DECAY DUE TO PERSISTENTLY HIGH VWS AND COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC FOBANE WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
WATER BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY
SPREADING OUT - A TYPICAL INDICATION OF A WEAKENING VORTEX. IN VIEW
OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE ONLY TO THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140210 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 23.2S 68.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 68.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.8S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.5S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.5S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.2S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 67.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 646 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101745Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTION, BUT TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 101648Z
ASCAT PASS, SHOWING 40 TO 45 KNOT WIND BARBS, AND DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 14S
IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, UNDER CONVERGENT UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW, WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TC FOBANE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS TRACK AND GRADUALLY DECAY DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140211 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 24.2S 67.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 67.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.3S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.8S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 28.2S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.1S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 66.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED. A RECENT 110457Z ASCAT
PASS MISSED THE CORE WINDS, BUT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY HAS WINDS RANGING FROM 35 TO 40 KNOTS, LENDING CREDENCE TO
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPING
IMAGERY INDICATES WARMER TROPICAL AIR HAS KEPT THE LLCC COCOONED
FROM DRYER AIR WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT AMSU CROSS-
SECTIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WEAKLY TROPICAL
VERTICAL STRUCTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE LLCC HAS STIFLED DEEP
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING NEAR THE CORE OF TC 14S. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BECOME SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SCENARIOS, THE FIRST WITH A STEADY
TRACK WESTWARD, AND THE SECOND BEING A TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS THE LATTER WITH A SLOW DISSIPATION SCENARIO AS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IMPACT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC. CURRENTLY
FULL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE
RECENT SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OBSERVED WITH TS 14S, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
DECREASED TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 25.0S 66.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 66.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.6S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 28.1S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.0S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 65.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION WANING, BUT REMAINING FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED. AN 111724Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS
ONLY A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 170648
SCATTEROMETER PASS AND WELL-MAINTAINED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
DESPITE A LOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG A WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS COMBINED EFFECT WILL WEAKEN TC 14 AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140212 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 27.2S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.0S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 30.0S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.4S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 64.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 596 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A TIGHTLY WRAPPED CORE. PERSISTENT
LEVELS OF CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS, WHICH HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LACKING SCATTEROMETER DATA, A
RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 120144Z WINDSAT 37
GHZ PASS, SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITIONING AND INTENSITY OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LLCC FOR THE PAST 24 TO 36
HOURS STIFLING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAS BEEN CREATING MODERATE
TO HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS) IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ANCHORED TO THE EAST.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTHWARD AND HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT FOR THE
SYSTEM AND INCREASING MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO THE FULL
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140212 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 28.8S 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S 64.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.6S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.0S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.3S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 29.0S 63.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED WITH A TIGHTLY WRAPPED CORE. A 121749Z TRMM MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 121703Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS A 40 TO 45 KNOT COMPACT CIRCULATION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOT WINDS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ASCAT PASS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG A WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST,
AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS
COMBINED EFFECT WILL WEAKEN TC 14S AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, LEADING TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 29.7S 63.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7S 63.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.1S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.5S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 29.8S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 702 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ST. DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINED INTACT AND
WELL-DEFINED BUT HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE REMNANT CONVECTION
DECREASED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 20-KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
OFFSETTING THE VWS AND HELPING SUSTAIN THE LINGERING CONVECTION. TC
14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24, MOSTLY
DUE TO COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST UP TO TAU 24, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 30.0S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.3S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 30.9S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 30.1S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 649 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, YET THE
CONVECTION REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 141726Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH SURROUNDING DRY AIR ALMOST ENCLOSES THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THE VWS AND HELPING SUSTAIN
THE LINGERING CONVECTION. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED TO THE EAST, AND SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER AN
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
24, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140214 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 30.0S 61.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0S 61.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 30.7S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 30.2S 61.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 636 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATING,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTION WRAPPING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES FIX CLUSTER, ALONG WITH AN
AMSU-B 140537Z PASS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A 140537Z ASCAT PASS. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY BEING PUSHED
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG LONGITUDE 80 DEGREES EAST.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED DIRECTLY
BENEATH A CLOSED LOW WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST. TC
14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (23 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS),
MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND
INCREASINGLY DRIER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
12. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140600Z IS 10 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_fobane_jtwc_advisories.htm
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