Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone EDILSON : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone EDILSON Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20140204 15:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5S 59.4E TO 20.9S 58.0E WITHIN THE
NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141430Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 59.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 59.7E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 59.1E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FEEDING FROM THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY, HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 041347Z SSMI-S
MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051530Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140205 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041521Z FEB 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.2S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.9S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.7S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.9S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.8S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 33.1S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 36.0S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 59.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (EDILSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 219 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 042018Z TRMM
37H MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 041717Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED A 30 TO 35 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 40 KNOT WIND
BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSSEMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 72, THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING A HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 041530Z FEB 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 041530).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140205 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.0S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.1S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.6S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.3S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 32.3S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 36.3S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 41.2S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 60.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (EDILSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAINT DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RECENT 12-HOUR ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED THE
SAME SYMMETRY AND CONVECTIVE DEPTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 051013Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE
OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S IS 07 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT ARE ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS THE STR
BUILDS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEFLECT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS LOW VWS AND
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW PERSIST. AFTERWARDS, AS TC EDILSON MOVES FURTHER
POLEWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATE IT BEFORE THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING TOWARDS TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140206 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 60.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.0S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.3S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.8S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.3S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 34.5S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 38.7S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 43.6S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM EAST OF
ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEADY
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF TC 13S HAVE AMPLIFIED THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, HELPING TO VENT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 13S. A REFLECTION OF
THE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE
GRADIENT STEERING FLOW, ACCELERATING TC 13S TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 60 KNOTS AT TAU 36 BASED
ON INCREASED UPPER LEVEL VENTING SUPPORT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. BEYOND TAU 36, THE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPER-
ATURES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE, AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
EASTWARD, THE OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO BE DEGRADED. ADDITIONALLY, THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE, LEADING TO A
WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 96 INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTER-
LIES WILL LEAD TO THE START OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. INTER-
ACTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE TC 13S TO
SHIFT TO A SOUTHEASTERN TRACK, ACCELERATING IN THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW. BY TAU 120 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY TRANSITIONED TO
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL
GUIDANCE LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140206 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 22.7S 57.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 57.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.1S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.0S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.9S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 33.9S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 40.2S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 46.8S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 57.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (EDILSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLOW CONSOLIDATION OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 061155Z SSMI
IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS FROM FMEE AND A 060502Z
ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH INDICATES 50-KNOT WINDS OVER THE EAST QUADRANT OF
THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMI
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST
TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR THROUGH TAU 72. NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 13S
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140207 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 26.2S 55.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 55.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 29.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 32.5S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 36.0S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 39.1S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 44.6S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 55.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE FOR TC 13S HAS BEEN DEGRADED AS A MAJOR
LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS TRACKED EASTWARD INTO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
SYSTEM. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS
AND IS CREATING INCREASED LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITION-
ALLY, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES
HAS STARTED IN THE MID-LEVELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL
(26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, FURTHER WEAKENING TC 13S. A CULMINATION OF
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS WILL START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BY TAU 36. INCREASING INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL FINISH THE TRANSITION PROCESS BY
TAU 72. THERE IS THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THIS PROCESS OCCURS
MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING TC 13S LEADING TO AN ACCELERATED
TRACK SPEED. BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140207 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 28.9S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 31.9S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 34.9S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.9S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 41.1S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 53.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (EDILSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
071138Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 13S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH HAS LED TO THE RAPID
DECAY OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DESPITE THE LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50
KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING. TC 13S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 AT WHICH
TIME THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) STARTING NEAR TAU 24 AND COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 48.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) FINAL WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) FINAL WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 30.6S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 33.7S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 31.4S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (EDILSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 616 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AWAY FROM A NOW FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
071751Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DIMINISHING CONVECTION WITH
DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z
IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_edilson_jtwc_advisories.htm
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