Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DYLAN : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone DYLAN Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20140128 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 154.0E TO 18.0S 149.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 154.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SLOWLY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 282340Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 282340Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER (20 TO 25 KNOT) WINDS IN THE CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM (GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE CORAL SEA ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE CURRENT ELONGATION, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 290300Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140129 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280251ZJAN2014// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 15.7S 151.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 151.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.5S 150.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.3S 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 18.2S 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.4S 146.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 22.2S 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 150.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 69 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TWO DOMINANT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. A 281946Z CORIOLIS IMAGE REVEALS THE WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES AS WELL AS AN ELONGATED AND SOMEWHAT LOOSELY DEFINED LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE STRONG GRADIENT FLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO FULLY WRAP AROUND THE LLCC BRINGING 30-35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER REPLACING THE PREVIOUSLY WEAKER CORE WINDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND RADAR ANIMATION FROM WILLIS ISLAND WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 281354Z OSCAT PASS AS WELL AS OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY WILLIS ISLAND. TC 11P IS TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST BY TAU 48 AND DISSIPATING WELL INLAND BY TAU 72. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGH OCEAN CONTENT WILL AID THE SYSTEM IN REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT, BUT GENERALLY INDICATING A SOUTHWEST TRACK. DUE TO THE LOOSLEY DEFINED LLCC AND SPREAD IN OBJECTIVE AIDS THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 280251Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 280300).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140129 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 16.9S 150.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 150.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.6S 149.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 18.4S 148.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.5S 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 20.7S 145.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 149.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291150Z METOP-B IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR INDICATES A MORE DEFINED LLCC, HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS FRAGMENTED AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND SHOW 10 TO 15 KNOT SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 994 MB. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER CORE WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 25 KNOTS DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE RADAR ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC 11P IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 48. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGH OCEAN CONTENT WILL AID THE SYSTEM IN REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, GENERALLY INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AND SPREAD IN OBJECTIVE AIDS THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140130 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280251ZJAN2014// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 148.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 148.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 18.6S 147.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.8S 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 21.0S 144.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 148.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140130 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 18.8S 148.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 148.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 20.0S 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 21.0S 145.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 147.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 301036Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK THAT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF, AUSTRALIA, WHICH SHOWED PERSISTENT 58 KNOT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG WESTERLY OUTFLOW. TC DYLAN IS EXPECTED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20140131 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 147.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 147.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 22.8S 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 310300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 147.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED INTO COASTAL AUSTRALIA. OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS NOT EXPECTATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER. LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO THE COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_dylan_jtwc_advisories.htm
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