Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DELIWE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone DELIWE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20140115 20:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1S 44.3E TO 22.6S 41.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 151900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 44.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 43.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 44.6E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INLAND INTO THE WESTERN POINT OF MADAGASCAR AND IS NOW LOOPING BACK AND EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW - ONE CHANNEL NORTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. ALL AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS PREDICT THE VORTEX TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL; HOWEVER, THEY SPREAD OUT TOWARDS THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE PREDICTIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL (28-30 CELSIUS), THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 162000Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140116 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161451Z JAN 14// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 20.2S 43.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 43.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 21.9S 42.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 23.7S 41.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 24.6S 40.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 24.6S 39.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 23.2S 38.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 20.7S 37.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 18.9S 36.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 43.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 161224Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS WELL MARKED LLCC SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH (35 KNOTS) BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, ONE CHANNEL NORTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT DRIVES THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL INITIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM AS IT SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES. AFTER TAU 48, THIS WESTERN STR WILL DRIVE TC 09S TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER WHICH, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR GENERAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS. AFTER THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES MOZAMBIQUE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 152000Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140117 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 22.4S 42.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 42.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 23.9S 41.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 24.7S 40.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 25.0S 39.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 24.5S 38.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.3S 37.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 22.5S 37.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 21.6S 36.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 42.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (DELIWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED, ALBEIT MARGINALLY, AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DEEPENED. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS A PERSISTENTLY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL; HOWEVER, THE NORTHWESTWARD CHANNEL HAS ALL BUT EXTINGUISHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON CLOSELY-GROUPED AND CONGRUENT DVORAK FIX ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE SAME RIDGE IS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCING THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED JUST EAST OF MADAGASCAR. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A COL AREA WHERE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN AS A NEW STR - ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AFRICA - WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING. AFTER TAU 48, THE NEW STR WILL ASSUME STEERING AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD. EVEN AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOLID THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING VWS - CONCURRENT WITH THE POLEWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE - WILL STIFLE ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. TC DELIWE IS FORECAST TO FLAT-LINE AT 45 KNOTS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WITH THE ONSET OF THE NEW STEERING STR. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE STEERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE COL AREA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140117 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 23.5S 42.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 42.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 24.8S 41.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 25.2S 39.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 25.1S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 24.5S 38.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 23.7S 38.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.7S 37.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 42.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS PERSISTED OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS MAINTAINED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED JUST EAST OF MADAGASCAR. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A COL AREA, WHERE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN AS A NEW STR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND COMPETES FOR STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER TAU 36, THIS NEW STR WILL ASSUME STEERING AND SLOWLY TRACK THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD. THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 24 WILL BEGIN TO OFFSET THE OUTFLOW AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THIS INCREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO TAU 96 IF THE VWS COMPLETELY OFFSETS THE OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MODEL TRACKERS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE VORTEX AND BECOME ERRATIC AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THIS, AND THE SHIFTING STEERING INFLUENCES, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140117 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 25.4S 40.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 40.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 25.7S 39.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 25.3S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 24.6S 38.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 40.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (DELIWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION, SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171458Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATES A 35 TO 40 KNOT WIND CIRCULATION, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 09S CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 12, TC DELIWE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL DOMINATE THE STEERING PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT TC 09S IS EXPERIENCING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FURTHER WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 36. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140118 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) FINAL WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 25.4S 40.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 40.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 25.7S 39.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 25.3S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 24.6S 38.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 40.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (DELIWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION, SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171458Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATES A 35 TO 40 KNOT WIND CIRCULATION, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 09S CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 12, TC DELIWE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL DOMINATE THE STEERING PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT TC 09S IS EXPERIENCING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FURTHER WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 36. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_deliwe_jtwc_advisories.htm
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