Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone COLIN : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone COLIN Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20140108 22:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6S 94.2E TO 12.2S 85.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 082130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 93.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 94.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081731Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 081455Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDER LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 092200Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140109 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 86.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 86.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 13.0S 83.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 13.8S 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.5S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.6S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 17.3S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.3S 72.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 26.6S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 85.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 866 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091614Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 091615Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE CORE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY POSITION FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY THE SYSTEM'S EASTERLY MOTION AND INCREASING OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TC 08S TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 96. THE STR WILL REORIENT IN THE LATER TAUS AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, CAUSING TC 08S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 082151Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 082200).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140110 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 83.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 83.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 13.3S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.1S 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.2S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 16.5S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.2S 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.3S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 27.4S 69.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 83.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO PERSIST OVER A WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A DEEP BAND OF CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY THE SYSTEM'S EASTERLY MOTION AND INCREASING OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TC 08S TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE STR WILL REORIENT IN THE LATER TAUS AS THE MID- LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, CAUSING TC 08S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140110 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 82.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 82.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 15.2S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.9S 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.0S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.7S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.9S 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 25.9S 72.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 31.2S 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 81.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 696 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STEADILY IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL- DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101652Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SEVERAL FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER AS WELL AS A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPED ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, FMEE, AND FIMP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TC 08S TO TURN SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWESTWARD. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 72, WEAKENING THE STR AND ALLOWING FOR TC 08S TO RECURVE BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140111 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 80.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 80.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.4S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.5S 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.9S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.6S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.1S 73.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 29.0S 74.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 33.4S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 80.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 721 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL AND HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 72, WEAKENING THE STR AND ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140111 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 79.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 79.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.3S 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.9S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.5S 74.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.6S 73.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 27.0S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 30.7S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 34.6S 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 78.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL TIGHTLY WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM A 12-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AROUND TAU 48 BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 48, WEAKENING THE STR AND ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140112 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 78.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 78.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.8S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.6S 75.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.3S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.3S 73.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 28.8S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 34.0S 85.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 77.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED SYMMETRY AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE 15-NM EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 120600Z DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AROUND TAU 48 BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW PERSIST. AFTERWARDS, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE TAU 48, WEAKENING THE STR AND ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESULTING IN A TIGHTER RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140112 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 20.1S 76.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 76.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.2S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 24.2S 74.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.8S 73.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 27.8S 74.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 33.6S 83.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 76.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 819 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140113 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 22.5S 75.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 75.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 24.7S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 26.4S 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 28.2S 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 30.9S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 36.9S 88.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 75.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 938 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE DUE TO COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON CLOSELY-GROUPED AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 08S CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE STR AROUND TAU 24 BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE TAU 24, WEAKENING THE STR AND ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED RECURVATURE. THERE IS TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL TRACKERS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140113 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 24.9S 73.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 73.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 26.6S 73.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 28.3S 73.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 30.8S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 33.3S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 73.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DIMINISHED CONVECTIVE BANDING AS TC 08S CONTINUES ITS WEAKENING TREND. A 131629Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 08S CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 24, A TRANSITORY MID- LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING TC 08S TO RECURVE AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 08S IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140114 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 26.7S 73.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 73.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 28.7S 73.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 31.2S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 73.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1171 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A NEARLY COMPLETE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION. MSI SHOWS THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE BECOMING LESS TIGHTLY WRAPPED IN THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (24 DEGREES CELSIUS). CURRENT MICROWAVE CROSS SECTIONS FOR TC 08S INDICATE THE SYSTEM REMAINS A WARM CORE CIRCULATION, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHIFT TO A SUBTROPICAL COLD CORE CIRCULATION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER DIMINISHING SSTS. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD, TO THE SOUTH OF TC 08S, HAS CAUSED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO SHIFT, BRINGING THE TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD, THE STR WILL FURTHER ADJUST CAUSING THE TRACK TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL DETERIORATE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 24. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140114 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 28.8S 73.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S 73.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 31.0S 75.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 33.3S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 35.6S 85.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 74.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1300 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHING CONVECTION AS TC 08S CONTINUES ITS WEAKENING TREND. A 141702Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS, SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING AROUND A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND WILL POSSIBLY LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION BEFORE COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 36. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140115 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 30.5S 75.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.5S 75.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 33.1S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 35.5S 86.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 31.1S 76.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1140 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KERGUELEN ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 050417Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH DIMINISHED CONVECTION AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE WELL DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECREASING ENVIRONMENT AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) LEVELS. TC 08S HAS ROUNDED THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE WESTERLIES, WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND WILL POSSIBLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BEFORE COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 24. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20140115 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 31.8S 77.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 23 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 31.8S 77.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 34.2S 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 32.4S 79.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1090 NM NORTHEAST OF KERGUELEN ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT TC 08S HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED. A 151159Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO DEVOLVE AS IT HAS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED AND THE DIMINISHED CONVECTION HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI- CIRCLE, ALBEIT SHALLOW CONVECTION. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND COMPLETE ETT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES, ENCOUNTERING FURTHER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_colin_jtwc_advisories.htm
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