Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20131227 07:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 122.3E TO 17.8S 118.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 120.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 123.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 120.9E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270542Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 270044Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER WINDS IN THE CENTER. A RECENT OBSERVATION REPORT FROM BROWSE ISLAND INDICATES A PRESSURE FALL OF 4 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 1001 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A WARM SEA SURFACE, WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ALSO FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280730Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131228 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 120.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 120.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.5S 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.4S 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 18.4S 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 19.8S 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.2S 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 25.8S 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 120.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT FORMATIVE BANDS, ALTHOUGH STILL FRAGMENTED, HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE, GIVEN THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE 280600Z DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INDUCED BY THE SAME STH, IS EASILY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO WITH GFDN AS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE BUT SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 270721Z DEC 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 270730). // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131228 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 120.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 120.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 17.1S 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 18.0S 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.2S 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 20.7S 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 24.4S 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 26.9S 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 120.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH AS THE FEEDER BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND HAVE CLOSED IN ON A RAGGED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 281012Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM APRF AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INDUCED BY THE SAME STH, IS EASILY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH AROUND TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH REMAINS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY WIDE TURN THAT IS BEING FORECAST BY GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131228 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 120.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 120.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.2S 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 18.1S 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 19.2S 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 20.7S 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 24.9S 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 27.8S 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 120.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281827Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN IMPROVING SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND SSMI IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC SURROUNDED BY 45 KNOT WIND BARBS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY PASS AS WELL AS CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, INDUCED BY THE SAME STH, IS EASILY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH AROUND TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH REMAINS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY WIDE TURN THAT IS BEING FORECAST BY GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131229 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 120.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 120.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 17.7S 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.7S 118.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 20.2S 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 22.2S 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 26.8S 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 120.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 282330Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN IMPROVING SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS AIDING THE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH AROUND TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH REMAINS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY WIDE TURN THAT IS BEING FORECAST BY GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131229 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 119.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 119.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 18.1S 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 19.4S 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 21.1S 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.2S 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 26.4S 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 119.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS THE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM BROOME WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES, AND IS SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH BEFORE TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH REMAINS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY WIDE TURN THAT IS BEING FORECAST BY GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z,300300Z AND 300900Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131229 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 119.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 119.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.8S 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 20.5S 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 22.2S 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 24.4S 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 27.7S 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 119.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED; OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM BROOME SHOWING A NEARLY COMPLETE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, APRF AND KNES RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY A WIND OBSERVATION OF 52 KNOTS FROM ROWLEY SHOALS, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT ARE SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH BEFORE AROUND TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH REMAINS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY WIDE TURN THAT IS BEING FORECAST BY GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131229 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 119.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 119.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 19.6S 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 21.2S 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.2S 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 25.4S 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 119.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO SLIGHTLY DEEPEN; OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM PORT HEDLAND SHOWING A COMPLETE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ON THE LOW END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 29/18Z WIND OBSERVATION OF 58 KTS FROM BEDOUT ISLAND, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT ARE SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH BEFORE TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131230 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 18.8S 118.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 118.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 20.0S 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 21.7S 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 24.0S 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 26.1S 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 118.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND A BROAD 35 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI ANIMATION AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM PORT HEDLAND SHOWING A COMPLETE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON A 30/00Z WIND OBSERVATION OF 57 KTS FROM BEDOUT ISLAND, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT ARE SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH JUST AFTER TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131230 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 118.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 118.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 21.2S 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.3S 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 25.6S 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 118.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 43 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A RELATIVELY SYMMETRICAL PROFILE AS IT APPROACHED THE WESTERN COAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON A TIGHT CIRCULATION ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM DAMPIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM APRF AND SUPPORTED BY NEARBY WIND OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING THOSE FROM THE ISLAND OF BEDOUT THAT WENT THROUGH AN EYEWALL PASSAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH AND MAKE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY ERODE THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131230 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 117.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 117.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 22.4S 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 24.7S 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 27.1S 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 117.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A 24 NM SYMMETRICAL EYE NEAR LANDFALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM DAMPIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IMMINENT LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY ERODE THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131230 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 117.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 117.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.2S 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 25.5S 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 27.9S 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 117.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND AS TC 05S MOVES OVER LAND; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A 20-NM DIAMETER EYE. RADAR IMAGERY FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA SHOWS THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL NEAR 301400Z AND TRACKED OVER ROEBOURNE AIRPORT, WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 71 KNOTS GUSTING TO 93 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 958 MB. TC CHRISTINE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY ERODE THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_christine_jtwc_advisories.htm
Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy] |