Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BRUCE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone BRUCE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20131217 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0S 98.2E TO 11.4S 94.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 97.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 97.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 97.1E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, YET CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION. A 162255Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS BANDING HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WHILE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED DESPITE SOME DISORGANIZATION IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS BEING COUNTERED BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 180300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131217 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170251Z DEC 13// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 9.6S 96.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 96.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 11.1S 95.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.2S 94.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.9S 92.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.4S 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.4S 86.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.9S 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.7S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 96.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION WHILE A 171851Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME TIGHTER WRAPPED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THIS INCREASE IN STRUCTURE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS MAINTAINED EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE SYSTEM'S TRACK BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD AS THE STR IS MODIFIED BY A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WARM ALONG TRACK SSTS (26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) WILL ALLOW FOR GENERAL INTENSIFICATION REACHING 70 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD BUT IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 170251Z DEC 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 170300). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131218 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 10.9S 95.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 95.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 11.8S 93.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.5S 92.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.0S 90.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.6S 88.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.6S 84.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.4S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.9S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 95.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED YET ELONGATED CENTER. A 180407Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH DEFINED TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING AND AN ELONGATED CENTER. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS, BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT AND FAVORS THE MORE RELIABLE GFS, NAVGEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131218 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 11.6S 94.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 94.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.2S 92.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 12.6S 90.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.2S 88.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 13.7S 86.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.7S 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.4S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.0S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 93.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED YET ELONGATED CENTER. A 181529Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH DEFINED TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING AND AN ELONGATED CENTER. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT AND FAVORS THE MORE RELIABLE GFS, NAVGEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131219 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 92.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 92.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 12.7S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.1S 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 13.6S 86.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.5S 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.2S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.9S 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 25.4S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 91.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190330Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICT DEEP, YET BROKEN, CONCENTRIC CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (10- 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROUGH DRAPED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES THE STR AXIS AND NEARS THE TURN. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND ALL INDICATE A RE-CURVE SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE ERRONEOUS COAMPS-TC TRACKER. LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE VARIOUS ALONG TRACK SPEEDS INDICATED BY ALL VORTEX TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131219 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 91.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 91.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 13.0S 89.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 13.4S 87.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 14.2S 85.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.3S 83.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 18.2S 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 22.1S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 26.5S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 90.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191210Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEPENING CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL WHICH SURROUNDS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (10- 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROUGH DRAPED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH WILL CAUSE TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS BY TAU 36 BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN GUIDANCE. BY TAU 72, TC 04S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND ALL INDICATE A RE- CURVE SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE ERRONEOUS COAMPS-TC TRACKER. LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE VARIOUS ALONG TRACK SPEEDS INDICATED BY ALL VORTEX TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 26 FEET. THE WARNING CYCLE FOR TC BRUCE HAS BEEN CHANGED. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131220 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 13.3S 89.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 89.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 13.9S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 14.4S 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.5S 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.3S 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 21.5S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 26.2S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 28.6S 86.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 89.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHARPLY DEFINED 30 NM EYE WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE EYEWALL. A 192320Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS WELL AS A WELL ESTABLISHED FEEDER BAND WRAPPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10- 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER STR AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH WILL CAUSE TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 120. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT ADJUSTMENTS IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THUS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT STR BREAKDOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131220 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 13.8S 87.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 87.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 14.6S 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.7S 82.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.6S 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.0S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 26.2S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 30.4S 84.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 31.2S 94.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 86.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLASSIC TC STRUCTURE WITH A DEEPLY CONVECTIVE, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY SPIRALING FEEDER BANDS IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 201157Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE SHARPLY CONCENTRIC EYEWALL WITH A STRONG FEEDER BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 25NM EYE APPARENT IN ALL IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.5 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TC BRUCE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED BY 35 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND AN ASTONISHING 70 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10- 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER STR AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH WILL CAUSE TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. THE COLD-CORE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC BRUCE WILL RIDE IN THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE UNTIL ABOUT DAY SEVEN WHEN ANOTHER, DEEPER, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBS IT. WITH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 130 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND THEN SLOWLY BEGINS TO DROP THEREAFTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 48 AT LATITUDE 20S WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHUTS DOWN BY TAU 36. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 72 ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THEREFORE, FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 48 AND TC BRUCE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GALE FORCE COLD- CORE LOW BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THUS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT STR BREAKDOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131221 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 85.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 85.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 16.0S 82.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 18.0S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.3S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 23.2S 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 28.2S 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 30.3S 88.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 84.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS INCREASED IN THE AREAL EXTENT WHILE MAINTAINING A 20 NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE READILY APPARENT IN ALL IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 135 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 7.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER STR AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH WILL CAUSE TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. THE COLD-CORE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC BRUCE WILL RIDE IN THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE UNTIL ABOUT DAY SIX WHEN ANOTHER, DEEPER, MID- LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBS IT. WITH UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 140 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND THEN SLOWLY BEGINS TO DROP THEREAFTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 36 AT LATITUDE 20S WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DROPS OFF BY TAU 24. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 48 ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID- LATITUDE TROUGH. THEREFORE, FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 48 AND TC BRUCE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GALE FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THUS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT STR BREAKDOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131221 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 82.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 82.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.3S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.9S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.7S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 25.6S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 30.4S 83.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 31.7S 92.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 81.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 769 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 04S HAS MAINTAINED NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, CONSEQUENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A 20 NM EYE. A 211026Z NOAA-18 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT 80 NM DIAMETER EYEWALL WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE AFTER TAU 36. TC BRUCE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 60 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO COLD SST AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131222 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 80.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 80.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.3S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.0S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 25.1S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 27.5S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 30.3S 87.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 79.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 734 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC WALL OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 30 NM EYE. BASED ON THIS EYE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF THE SAME VALUE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS AT LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) LEVELS. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST AND MODIFY THE CURRENT STEERING STR, WHICH WILL RECURVE THE SYSTEM AROUND THE STR AXIS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MORE ACCELERATED WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24. TC BRUCE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 48 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131222 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 19.0S 78.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 78.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 21.7S 77.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 24.9S 77.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 28.1S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 30.6S 82.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 31.9S 92.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 77.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 04S IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 221209Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS OVER WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH A 27 NM DIAMETER EYE, WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO COLD SST AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. TC BRUCE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131223 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 21.6S 77.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 77.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 25.0S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 28.2S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 31.0S 83.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 25 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.4S 89.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 77.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 921 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 04S HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC WHILE A 25 NM EYE HAS PERSISTED. A 230025Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS STARTED TO THIN ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 115 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECREASING ENVIRONMENT AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS NOW AT MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS. TC BRUCE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE TRACKING INTO THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FURTHER INCREASES. EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AT TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED INTO THE WESTERLIES AND WILL COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131223 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 24.5S 78.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 78.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 27.9S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 30.8S 83.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.4S 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 78.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1096 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 04S HAS LOST ITS EYE, BECOME ELONGATED AND HAS OVERALL WEAKENED. A 231154Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS STARTED TO THIN ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO COLD SST AND INCREASING VWS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. TC BRUCE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131224 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 28.4S 79.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.4S 79.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 31.4S 83.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 33.0S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 29.2S 80.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1333 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED. A 232311Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS SHALLOWED AND STARTED TO THIN ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ALTHOUGH THE LLCC HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO COLD SSTS AND INCREASING VWS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. TC BRUCE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 241500Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131224 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) FINAL WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) FINAL WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 31.6S 83.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 26 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.6S 83.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 33.0S 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 31.9S 84.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1594 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, RAPIDLY DECAYING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES, TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_bruce_jtwc_advisories.htm
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