Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BEJISA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone BEJISA Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 20131229 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.5S 51.7E TO 16.1S 52.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 52.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 51.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 52.2E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A WELL ESTABLISHED BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 282329Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL NUMBER OF 30 KNOT WIND BARBS. AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE AN INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE WESTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE REMAINED STRONG. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 300300Z. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131229 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290251ZDEC2013// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 52.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 52.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 10.6S 52.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 10.9S 52.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 11.2S 51.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 11.8S 51.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 13.9S 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 16.9S 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.0S 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 52.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 290227Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN TWO RIDGE AXES - ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH - IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG WESTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE FUELED THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR), THEREFORE, IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO THE EAST WILL EMERGE AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND NUDGE THE CYCLONE POLEWARD. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR A STEADY INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STEERING FLOW AS REFLECTED IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, THE CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POOR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 290300). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131229 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 10.4S 52.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 52.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 10.8S 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 11.3S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 12.0S 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 13.1S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.1S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 18.9S 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 21.4S 56.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 52.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING A PARTIALLY- EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAVE CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A 291739Z METOP-B IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AS WELL AS A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATING A 35 TO 40 KNOT CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN TWO RIDGE AXES - ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH - IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG WESTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE FUELED THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR), THEREFORE, TC 06S MAY MOVE ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO THE EAST WILL EMERGE AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND NUDGE THE CYCLONE POLEWARD. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR A STEADY INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR TC BEJISA HAS OVERALL INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STEERING FLOW AS REFLECTED IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, THE CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POOR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131230 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 11.2S 52.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 52.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 12.1S 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 13.0S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 14.6S 53.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.0S 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.4S 54.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.6S 56.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.0S 57.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 52.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND AMIDST A TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN TWO RIDGE AXES - ONE TO THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE SOUTH - IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, IS OFFSETTING THE VWS AND FUELING THE INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS NOW OUT OF THE COL AREA AND IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION - PEAKING AT 90 KNOTS - BEFORE INCREASING VWS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131230 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 52.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 52.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 13.5S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 14.6S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.2S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.8S 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.8S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.7S 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 24.6S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 52.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED WITH ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 6 NM PINHOLE EYE. A 301803Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, IS FUELING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (50 KNOT INCREASE IN PAST 24 HOURS). ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TC 06S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR. BY TAU 96, A RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH PRODUCING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TC 06S SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO COOLER SST AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 BUT WEST OF THE CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, FAVORING THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z AND 312100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131231 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 53.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 53.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 14.8S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.4S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.9S 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.4S 54.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.7S 56.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.1S 56.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 24.9S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 310900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 53.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 446 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL 10NM EYE WHILE THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE HAS SLIGHTLY CONTRACTED. A 310410Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT EYE WALL STRUCTURE WHILE THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE READILY APPARENT EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED TO BE 105 KNOTS BASED UPON THE DEFINED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHILE STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT DRIVES THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY. AFTER TAU 36, TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR. BY TAU 96, ANOTHER STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER WHICH, COOLING SST AND INCREASING VWS WILL INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH WILL BECOME MORE ACCELERATED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 BUT WEST OF THE CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, FAVORING THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20131231 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 53.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 53.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.7S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.3S 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.6S 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 21.0S 55.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.8S 55.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.4S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.8S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 53.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AS TC 06S UNDERGOES AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS LOST THE EYE FEATURE, BUT CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 311836Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TC 06S CONTINUES THE ERC BUT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 24. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TC 06S SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO COOLER SST AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLIES. TC 06S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR. BY TAU 72, A HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH PRODUCING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48 BUT WEST OF THE CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, FAVORING THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20140101 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 53.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 53.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.6S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 20.0S 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 21.2S 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.1S 55.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.7S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.5S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.7S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 53.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE TC 06S HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CIRCLE (ERC) AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO RE-BUILD AROUND A NEWLY RE-FORMED 15NM RAGGED EYE IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 010359Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL, ALSO SIGNALING THE COMPLETION OF THE ERC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE MSI AND INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES THAT RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEMS CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE NEXT DAY, AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR WHICH WILL DEFLECT TC 06S TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE. DUE TO THE COMPLETION OF THE ERC, TC BEJISA IS NOW EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER WHICH, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND INCREASING VWS WILL START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM WITH A MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO COLD SSTS (< 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND FURTHER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLIES. JUST AFTER TAU 96, TC BEJISA WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSISTION BY TAU 120. WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF EGRR, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, DUE TO THE TRANSITIONING STEERING INFLUENCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20140101 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 53.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 53.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 20.5S 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 21.5S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.3S 55.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.0S 55.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 24.7S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 28.6S 49.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 33.4S 46.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 53.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEWLY FORMED PINHOLE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY AN IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. A 011634Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE EIR AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 24, A TRANSITORY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND DEFLECT TC 06S TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING EAST AND ALLOW A MID- TO DEEP-LAYER STR TO QUICKLY BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM; RESULTING IN A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC BEJISA IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER WHICH, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM WITH A MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36. TC BEJISA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SOME TIME AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INCREASING VWS DUE TO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF EGRR, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, DUE TO THE TRANSITIONING OF STEERING INFLUENCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20140102 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 54.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 54.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 21.6S 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.4S 55.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.0S 55.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.1S 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.5S 51.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.3S 47.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 34.9S 45.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 54.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MAINTAINED AN EYE, THE DIAMETER OF WHICH HAS INCREASED TO 22 NM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A VERY STRONG SOUTHEASTWARD COMPONENT, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, IS OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A MID- TO DEEP-LAYERED STR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECELERATE BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE NEW STR ASSUMES FULL STEERING. NEAR TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING BEHIND THE STR, WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEFLECT POLEWARD - PRELUDE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AND EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). AS TC BEJISA TRACKS POLEWARD, THE VWS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE RESULTING IN THE CYCLONES GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY TAU 120, TC 06S WILL BEGIN ETT AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE ETT. DUE TO THE MULTIPLE STEERING MECHANISMS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20140102 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 55.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 55.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.9S 55.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.7S 55.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.6S 54.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.8S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 30.5S 47.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 34.2S 42.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 35.0S 39.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 55.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DEGRADED AS CONVECTION HAS SHALLOWED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE IR ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOW END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90- 102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 12 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH A VERY STRONG SOUTHEASTWARD COMPONENT, OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS SHIFTED FROM A GENERAL RECURVE SCENARIO AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO A DISSIPATION OVER WATER DUE TO A CHANGE IN COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES IN THE LATER TAUS. AFTER TAU 12, A MID- TO DEEP-LAYERED STR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECELERATE BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE NEW STR ASSUMES FULL STEERING. NEAR TAU 96, A TRANSITORY MID- LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW ANOTHER A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD-IN BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH; DEFLECTING THE STORM FURTHER TO THE WEST. AS TC BEJISA TRACKS POLEWARD, THE VWS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE RESULTING IN THE CYCLONES GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 96 AND FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED NEAR TAU 48 AS NAVGEM AND COAMPS INDICATE A RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHILE GFS, ECMWF AND EGRR INDICATE A TRACK IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST. DUE TO THE MULTIPLE STEERING MECHANISMS AND BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND HEDGED TOWARD GFS AND ECMWF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20140103 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 23.1S 55.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 55.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 24.1S 55.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.1S 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.5S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.5S 51.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 33.4S 46.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 35.0S 42.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 55.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE EYE THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS HAS SHRUNK AND BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. CONCURRENTLY, THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AS THE FEEDER BANDS BEGAN TO UNRAVEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE SHRINKING EYE IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH A VERY STRONG SOUTHEASTWARD COMPONENT, IS OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, A MID- TO DEEP-LAYERED REFLECTION OF THE STR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECELERATE BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. NEAR TAU 72, A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE NEW STR, RESULTING IN ANOTHER WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER; BY THIS TIME FRAME, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED TC BEJISA WITH ITS DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE MULTIPLE STEERING MECHANISMS AS TRANSLATED IN THE BIFURCATION OF THE NUMERIC MODELS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20140103 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 24.0S 55.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 55.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.7S 54.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.2S 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.2S 50.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 30.2S 48.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 34.0S 44.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 54.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING, YET TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031817Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ALSO WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS TC 06S ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND INCREASING VWS. FURTHERMORE, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COLDER SST (LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONGER VWS, WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN TC BEJISA. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20140104 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 25.1S 54.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 54.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.5S 52.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.6S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 31.2S 46.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 33.3S 44.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 53.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEFINED SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 040325Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED VERY TIGHTLY WRAPPED DESPITE A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL WRAPPED AND DVORAK ESTIMATES MAY BE LOW DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO HAMPER THE EFFECTS OF OVERALL GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN AS COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (LESS THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASING VWS SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DUE TO A GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20140104 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 26.5S 52.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.5S 52.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.7S 49.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 31.8S 46.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 35.0S 43.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 51.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-STRUCTURED SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041431Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY CURVED DESPITE A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO HAMPER THE EFFECTS OF OVERALL GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TC 06S AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20140105 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 28.9S 49.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 49.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 32.2S 46.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 35.4S 43.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 48.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 604 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20140105 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 32.3S 45.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 23 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.3S 45.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 35.5S 42.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 33.1S 44.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 664 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION BY TAU 12. TC 06S IS LOCATED UNDER A BROAD, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH JET-STRENGTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR FLOWING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD WITH 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS GREATER THAN 100 NM, TYPICAL OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION. ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (22 TO 23C). TC 06S IS POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS ACCELERATING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 12. THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOT UNTIL THE 2- TO 3-DAY TIMEFRAME AS IT TRACKS AROUND 40 DEGREES LATITUDE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_bejisa_jtwc_advisories.htm
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