Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone AMARA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone AMARA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20131215 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 77.4E TO 16.4S 72.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 76.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 81.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 76.5E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH FLARING CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION. SSMIS PASSES FROM 151159Z AND 151302Z INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE SUSPECTED LLCC. POSITIONING HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS MULTIPLE MESO-VORTICES HAVE POPPED OUT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND UNRAVELED. CURRENT POSITION PHILOSOPHY IS TO STAY WITH THE CENTER OF MASS WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN AT 151200Z AND ARE CALLING FOR A 25 KNOT DISTURBANCE BUT THE MOST RECENT SCAT PASS (OSCAT FROM 150636Z) INDICATES A 30 KNOT LLCC WHICH HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC BUT HAS BEEN DECREASING DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC TO LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN TO PICK UP IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION WITH A CONNECTION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS MARGINAL. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THE DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED SYMMETRY OF THE LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 161500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS21 PGTW 20131216 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151451Z DEC 13// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2S 73.5E TO 16.4S 68.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 73.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 76.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 73.1E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING. THE SSMI 85 GHZ PASS FROM 161026Z REVEALS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS CONTAINED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT BUT ALSO INDICATES THE IMPROVED CURVED STRUCTURE NEAR THE LLCC. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED AND RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KNOTS AS TWO OUT OF THREE REPORTING STATIONS INDICATE THIS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS APPROXIMATELY FOUR DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF AN EAST- WEST ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER THE LLCC AND IS CURRENTLY AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS (10-15 KNOTS). OUTFLOW IS CONCENTRATED IN THE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS WITH A CONNECTION INTO THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS MARGINAL. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THE DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 171500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131216 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161451Z DEC 13// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 72.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 72.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 15.8S 71.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.8S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.8S 69.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.8S 68.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.1S 65.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.9S 62.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.7S 60.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 71.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND OUTER BANDING SPIRALING INTO THE CENTER. A 1705Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS INCREASING STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AND TIGHTER WRAPPED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. BASED ON THIS INCREASED STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN INCREASED TO WARNING STATUS (35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10- 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS MARGINAL. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR. THIS STR IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND MOVE OVER AFRICA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER MODIFYING STR WILL BE BUILDING TO THE EAST OF SYSTEM WHICH WILL ADD A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48. GENERAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR, REACHING A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, AS GOOD UPPER LEVELS AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CAN SUPPORT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD BUT GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLIGHT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 161451Z DEC 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131217 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 72.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 72.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.7S 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.6S 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.6S 68.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.7S 67.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 16.2S 64.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.6S 62.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.2S 61.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 72.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS A BURST OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC SEEMS TO HAVE CAUSED TEMPORARY UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER, THE BANDING STRUCTURE REMAINS TIGHTLY CURVED, AS EVIDENT IN THE 170413Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 170415Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE 35-KNOT WINDS CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE AND ASCAT IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND THE TIMELY ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC AMARA IS NOW LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE MAIN OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT CONNECTION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 03S HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. THE SYSTEM WILL STAY IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WILL REMAIN ON A TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 96 A DEEP MID- LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AND ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND DIP SOUTHWEST. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SUPPORTIVE 26 TO 27 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). AS TC AMARA APPROACHES THE WATERS OFF LA REUNION, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARMER SSTS (28 DEGREES CELSIUS), WARMER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, SHOULD CAUSE INTENSIFICATION TO 70 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 110 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120 BUT THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT IN THE ALONG TRACK SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF SOLUTION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS DUE TO THE SLIGHT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131217 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 71.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 71.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 16.2S 70.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.3S 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.4S 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.6S 65.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 17.2S 62.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.6S 61.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.3S 61.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 71.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 544 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME TIGHTER WRAPPED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS FURTHER IMPROVED. A 171644Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND A MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALTHOUGH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DIMINISHED. TC 03S CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY AS IT IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN ON A THIS SLOW WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 96 A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AND ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND DIP SOUTHWEST. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SUPPORTIVE 26 TO 27 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). AS TC AMARA APPROACHES THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARMER SSTS (28 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, SHOULD CAUSE INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 100 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120 BUT THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE ALONG TRACK SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS DUE TO THE SLIGHT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131218 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 70.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 70.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.0S 69.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.3S 68.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.6S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 16.9S 65.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 17.6S 63.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.4S 63.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.2S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 70.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT RAPIDLY IMPROVED STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 10-NM IRREGULAR EYE. A 180428Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH SUPPORTS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (40 KNOT INCREASE). TC 03S CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36 TO 48. AFTER TAU 60, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SLOW FORWARD MOTION AND PROVIDE AN INFLUX OF COOLER, DRIER AIR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS DUE, PRIMARILY, TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131218 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 69.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 69.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 17.2S 68.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.8S 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 18.3S 65.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.9S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.3S 64.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.0S 64.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.9S 65.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 69.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM WITH A 12-NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE AND SEVERAL WELL DEFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. TC 03S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), INCREASING BY 50 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW CHANNELS EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD. AN 181709Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AS WELL AS THE ESTABLISHED EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND AMSU-B IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24. SOON AFTER, A LOW-LEVEL HIGH, BUILDING SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD ACT TO SLOW FORWARD MOTION AND PROVIDE AN INFLUX OF COOLER, DRIER AIR; GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE STRUCTURE OF TC 03S. NEAR TAU 48, THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ASSUME THE DOMINANT STEERING CONTROL OF TC 03S AND BEGIN A SLOW RECURVE SCENARIO TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND DUE INCREASING VWS AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL VARIATIONS IN TRACK SPEED DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING MECHANISM AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE SCENARIO. THUS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY ERRATIC BEHAVIOR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE CURRENT RI SCENARIO, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131219 09:00z AMD MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 006A AMENDED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 006A AMENDED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 68.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 68.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.9S 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 18.5S 65.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.1S 64.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.9S 64.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.8S 64.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.1S 64.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.3S 64.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 67.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS EXPERIENCED WARMING CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS BASED ON THE FIX CLUSTER OF ALL REPORTING AGENCIES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE; HOWEVER, THE 190442Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 68.3E AND THE BEST TRACK POSITION WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 TO 115 KNOTS DUE TO THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MAIN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION INTO TRANSITORY TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ONCE ROBUST EQUATORWARD CHANNEL HAS NOW WEAKENED AND PROBABLY THE CAUSE OF THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. ANOTHER TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE BY TAU 48. THIS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN. BY TAU 96 THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ACT TO STALL THE SYSTEM AND MOST LIKELY CAUSE IT TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST; HOWEVER, THAT IS BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY DAY THREE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THEN, WHEN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST BUILDS IN THERE SHOULD BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD BUT MOST INDICATE A STALL FOLLOWED BY A RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. THE TIMING OF THIS HAS EXTREMELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS TO KEEP THE FOUR AND FIVE DAY POSITIONS VERY SLOW UNTIL THE MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A MORE COHERENT SOLUTION. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS CHANGED IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY AS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO ALL THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FACTORS. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED WIND RADII AND SLIGHTLY CHANGED CURRENT POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131219 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 66.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 66.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 18.4S 65.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.1S 64.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.9S 63.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.6S 64.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.1S 64.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.3S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.5S 65.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 66.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 657 NM EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131220 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 65.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 65.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.9S 64.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.6S 64.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.3S 64.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.7S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.1S 65.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.3S 65.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.6S 65.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 65.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER AND SPIRALING OUT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200304Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS VERY INTENSE AND DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE LLCC WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE APPARENT 30NM SYMMETRIC EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102-115 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A SELF-INDUCED POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MAIN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION INTO A TRANSITORY TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MODERATE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL AS WELL. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN THE STR. ANOTHER FAST MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, NOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, WILL FURTHER BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 96, ANOTHER ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE BASIN, TC 04S (BRUCE), WILL HAVE REACHED CPA FROM TC 03S (AMARA) AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY. MODEL FIELDS DEPICT AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING IN NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR WILL BUILD IN SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. MOST MODEL FIELDS SHOW THESE TWO RIDGES COMBINING TO FORM A CONTINUOUS STR LOBE THAT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ONLY THE PURELY DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INTENSIFIES IT. EVEN THOUGH A TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS AND THEIR ACCENTUATION OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL STR SHOULD PROVE ENOUGH TO BRING THIS SYSTEM TO EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD DUE TO EACH MODEL'S VARIOUS TIMING OF ALL THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYNOPTIC EVOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAKENED LLCC MAY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST DURING THE FOUR TO FIVE DAY MARK BUT IT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING BY THIS TIME ANYWAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131220 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 64.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 64.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.8S 64.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.4S 64.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.7S 64.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.9S 65.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.1S 65.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.2S 65.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.3S 66.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 64.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO A DEFINED 25 NM EYE. A 201538Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL THAT HAS SLIGHTLY THINNED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE READILY APPARENT EYE IN THE IR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A SELF-INDUCED POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TRANSITORY TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A MODERATE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL HAS PERSISTED AS WELL. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN THIS STR WHILE ANOTHER FAST MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, NOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, WILL FURTHER BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WHICH WILL FORCE TC 03S INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS, COOLING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A LOW-TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL DISSIPATION PAST TAU 120. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD DUE TO THE OVERALL WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS MODELS TAKE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THEREFORE, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131221 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 64.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 64.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.0S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 21.6S 65.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.0S 66.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.2S 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.3S 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.4S 67.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.4S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 64.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 389 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 29-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY AN ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL. A 210518Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING EVIDENT OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36, AS IT WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DUE TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. TC AMARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 WITH THE REMNANTS BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OR TRACKING WESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THE MODEL TRACKERS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131221 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 21.2S 65.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 65.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 21.9S 66.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.2S 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.4S 67.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.6S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 22.8S 68.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.8S 68.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 65.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS TC 03S HAS STARTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE DEFINED 20 NM EYE HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND SLIGHTLY SHALLOWED. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE READILY APPARENT EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 120 KNOTS BASED ON FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT NOW RANGE FROM 102 TO 127 KNOTS AND THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE EIR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS STARTING TO DIMINISH DESPITE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, TC 03S HAS STARTED TO EXPERIENCE STRONG LEVELS (20 TO 30 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A LOBE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS CURRENT STEERING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL CREATE A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 03S TO SLOW TO THE POINT OF BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ALTHOUGH A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED. GENERAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FURTHER INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAMPER THE SYSTEM. TC AMARA WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK TO THE WEST ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FOREAST; HOWEVER, THE MODEL TRACKERS CONTINUE DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131222 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 22.1S 66.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 66.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.5S 67.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.8S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.9S 68.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.9S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.8S 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 66.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED. HOWEVER, A 220457Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (30+ KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, IS CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO DECAY RAPIDLY. TC 03S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND WILL ACT TO SLOW TC 03S LEADING TO QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 03S BECOMES EXPOSED TO INCREASING VWS, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TC OVER WATER BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TC 03S ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL HIGH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE VARIATION IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131222 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 68.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 68.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.9S 68.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.8S 69.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.6S 69.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 68.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO DEVOLVE AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SHEARED AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY OVER 50 NM. A 221513Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO ELONGATE AND THE CONVECTION HAS CONSIDERABLY SHALLOWED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC AND SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE IR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (30+ KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING ANY POSITIVE EFFECTS OF SOME EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND WILL ACT TO SLOW TC 03S, LEADING TO QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATING TC AMARA BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER DISSIPATION, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TC 03S WILL TRACK BACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL HIGH, ALTHOUGH, AT A VERY WEAKENED STATE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE VARIATION IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131223 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 22.9S 68.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 68.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.9S 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.7S 69.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 22.9S 68.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 631 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 230437Z METOP-A IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING WITH DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 03S HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH HAS BUILT IN TO THE SOUTH. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATING TC AMARA BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 24. THE REMNANTS OF TC 03S ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL HIGH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE FORECAST TRACK WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20131223 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 22.8S 68.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 68.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.6S 69.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 68.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 657 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. A 230640Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS ONLY 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 30 TO 35 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED OSCAT IMAGE. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS, COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL DISSIPATE TC AMARA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF TC 03S ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- LEVEL HIGH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_amara_jtwc_advisories.htm
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