Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ANGGREK : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ANGGREK Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20101029 22:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5S 97.4E TO 10.5S 94.9E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292130Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.9S 96.7E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7S
97.1E IS NOW LOCATED AT 7.9S 96.7E APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291917Z
AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND MULTIPLE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
PARTIAL 291539Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS UNDER EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE LLCC IS ALSO LOCATED
UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101030 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292151ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 8.1S 95.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S 95.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 9.0S 95.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 9.6S 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.4S 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.1S 97.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 12.9S 98.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.5S 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.5S 95.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 8.3S 95.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (TWO), CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301519Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE INDICATE CONSOLIDATION AND
INTENSIFICATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWS WINDS
EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE CIRCUMFERENCE OF THE
LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON ASCAT IMAGERY AND
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS UNDER 20-30 KTS OF
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS DISPLACING THE DEEP
CONVECTION WESTWARD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVING OUTFLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST QUADRANT, HOWEVER,
TC 02S IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOWER VWS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT AND SHOW A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72
FOLLOWED BY A BROAD TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
CYCLONE MOVING OVER FAVORABLE SSTS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY TAU 60.
FAVORABLE SST COUPLED WITH A DECREASE IN VWS AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS
NEAR TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 02S SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE TRACK IS
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONSENSUS DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE GFDN
TRACKER. GFDN ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE
THROUGH TAU 72 THEN SHARPLY TURNS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 292151ZOCT10 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 292200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z AND
312100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101031 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 8.7S 96.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S 96.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 9.4S 96.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.3S 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.3S 98.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.5S 98.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.0S 97.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.6S 96.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.2S 95.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 8.9S 96.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE. THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION NOW THAT
THERE IS DAYLIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF MODERATELY SHEARED CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF THE PGTW AND APRF FINAL-T
NUMBERS, WHICH RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 3.0 OR 35 TO 45 KNOTS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NORTH.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST. AROUND TAU
72 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE STABLE AND LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. VWS WILL AGAIN ELEVATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THOUGH GFDN CONTINUES TO BIAS
THE CONSENSUS EAST BEYOND TAU 24, THE FORECAST LIES ON THE GFDN SIDE
OF THE CONSENSUS. MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER DEEP
LAYER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE
AND PROMOTE A MORE SOUTH OF WEST TRACK, EAST OF THE CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101031 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 9.8S 97.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 97.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.8S 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.9S 98.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.9S 98.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.7S 97.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.3S 96.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.2S 94.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.1S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 97.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS REINTENSIFIED AND EXPANDED OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A
311458Z 89GHZ METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS DECREASING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND 45 KNOTS FROM APRF. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36 IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. GFDN REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER AND
CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE WBAR
AND GFS TRACK TC 02S MORE SOUTHWARD, EAST OF THE CONSENSUS. ECMWF,
NOGAPS AND JGSM DEVELOP THE ANTICYCLONE MORE VIGOROUSLY AND DRIVE
THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD, WEST OF CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36 AND IS POSITIONED WEST OF
THE CONSENSUS DUE TO THE PROBLEMS WITH GFDN AND HEDGED TOWARD THE
BEST PERFORMING MODELS. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS FORECAST
AT TAU 48 DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SST. TC 02S
IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101101 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 10.6S 97.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 97.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.7S 97.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.5S 97.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.3S 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.1S 96.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.3S 95.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.7S 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.1S 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 97.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED 10 KNOTS
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EASES. DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM APRF AND PGTW. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO A DENSE CIRRUS
CANOPY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, RESPONSIBLE FOR WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST, WILL BEGIN TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM, PROMOTING A MORE WESTWARD (VICE POLEWARD) TRACK FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO INTENSIFY AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO RELAX. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATERS BEGINNING NEAR 15.0S
OR TAU 72. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND DIG FAR INTO THE TROPICS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE
SYSTEM. BY DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AGAIN AND THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TURN POLEWARD. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL ELEVATE CONSIDERABLY AROUND TAU 96 AS THE WESTERLIES
MARCH EQUATORWARD AHEAD OF OF THIS TROUGH. EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS
WILL HELP TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODELS AFTER THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE MAJORITY INDICATE
THE RIDGE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST TROUGH,
THEN WEAKEN AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND (SHARPER) TROUGH.
THE FORECAST LIES TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING
PULLED TO THE EAST BY GFDN, AN OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101101 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 97.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 97.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.8S 97.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.6S 97.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.5S 96.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.2S 95.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.2S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.0S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.1S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 97.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 011434Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO A PERSISTENT CIRRUS CANOPY OBSCURING
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). TC
02S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE (STR) RE-ORIENTS AND BUILDS WESTWARD
IN THE INITIAL TAUS. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WARM SST,
HIGH OHC, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR) WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36. NEAR TAU 72, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD. AS THE SYSTEM NEARS 15S, SST'S
AND OHC ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF, AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 36, WBAR AND GFDN DO
NOT INDICATE RE-STRENGTHENING OF THE STR, AND CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST
OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODEL OUTLIERS, BUT IS IN THE PACK
WITH JGSM, EGRR, NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF, WHICH INDICATE THE RIDGE
WILL RE-BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IN THE LATER TAUS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101102 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 12.9S 97.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 97.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.8S 97.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.6S 96.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.4S 95.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.1S 94.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.8S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.4S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 97.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING
WITH CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION DUE TO DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IN MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES,
AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02S IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALLOW TC 02S TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE INITIAL TAUS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
OVER WATER WITH MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AROUND TAU 48, A MID-
LEVEL, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE
TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD. TC 02S SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THEN DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN THE INITIAL TAUS, HOWEVER, WBAR AND GFDN CONTINUE TO
TRACK THE SYSTEM MORE POLEWARD ERRONEOUSLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH JGSM, NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101102 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 97.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 97.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.4S 97.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.2S 95.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.0S 94.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.8S 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.8S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 97.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 021402Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED LOW
LEVEL BANDING WITH WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM KNES,
PGTW, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 02S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WEST OF SOUTH BY TAU 12 AS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS TC ANGGREK TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD, DECREASED SST'S, MARGINAL OHC, AND INCREASED VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO STEADLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WBAR, WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS
TO ACCOUNT FOR WBAR AND REMAINS WITHIN THE TIGHT MODEL ENVELOPE
CONSISTING OF ECMWF, JGSM, NGPS, GFDN, GFDN, AND GFS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101103 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 14.4S 97.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 97.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.1S 96.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.9S 94.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.7S 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.8S 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 23.1S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 96.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A
030113Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO
55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE, AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 02S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL
AROUND TAU 48 WHEN AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TC 02S TO TURN
POLEWARD. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR WBAR, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE
SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST TRACK
IS NORTH AND WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101103 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 96.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 96.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.7S 94.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.5S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.8S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.2S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 95.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 031534Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. IMAGERY AND RECENT UPPER-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE 20-30
KNOT NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYLONE NEAR 12S 103E.
DESPITE THE INCREASED VWS AND EXPOSED LLCC, A 031533Z ASCAT IMAGE
SUPPORTS A WELL-DEFINED, SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH NUMEROUS 30-35
KNOT WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED
ON THE ASCAT LOW BIAS AS WELL AS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 02S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A FINGER OF THE LOW- MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO COOLER SST AND INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 24
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING, DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TC IN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101104 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 94.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 94.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.9S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.4S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 94.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS NO LONGER MEETS THE WARNING CRITERIA FOR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
SYSTEMS. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON FALLING T-
NUMBERS FROM PGTW. CURRENTLY PGTW IS REPORTING A 2.0/2.5, WHICH
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO 30 - 35 KNOTS. MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS LEFT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS HIGHER VWS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 11 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_anggrek_jtwc_advisories.htm
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