WTXS21 PGTW 20071218 05:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 88.1E TO 17.1S 85.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 180000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 87.8E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S
88.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE CENTER, AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME MORE COINCIDENT WITH THE LLCC, PROVIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND INCREASING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190530Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180521ZDEC2007//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 84.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 84.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 13.7S 84.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 14.5S 83.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 15.3S 83.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 16.2S 82.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 84.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND A
180037Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALING A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), GREATLY ENHANCING OUTFLOW ALOFT. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECOND, FULLY EXPOSED LLCC
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TC 07S. THIS SECOND
LLCC COULD EXERT SOME INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF TC 07S, BUT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A STRONG EFFECT. TC 07S WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE WEST BEFORE TURNING MORE POLEWARD AFTER TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 180521ZDEC2007
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 180530) MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z
AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CELINA) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW 180300).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 82.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 82.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 14.7S 81.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 16.0S 81.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 17.2S 82.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 18.3S 83.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 81.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND A
181623Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALING A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), GREATLY ENHANCING OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE LLCC MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TC 07S, IS NO LONGER INFLUENCING THE TRACK OR
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED AS EVIDENCED
IN A 181955Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE. TC 07S WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-
WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING
INFLUENCE FROM A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY THE DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z AND 200300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 80.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 80.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 15.2S 80.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 16.0S 81.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 17.1S 82.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 17.9S 83.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 80.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. CURRENT INTEN-
SITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 KNOTS
TO 50 KNOTS, AND THE APPEARANCE OF A BANDING MICROWAVE EYE IN A
190809Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD
AFTER CROSSING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 24. ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL
ALLOW THE CONTINUED SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071220 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 82.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 82.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 16.8S 83.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 17.9S 84.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 19.0S 86.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 20.0S 88.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 82.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. STORM
MOTION HAS SHIFTED FROM GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST-
WARD DUE TO A CHANGE IN THE STEERING MECHANISM FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEW STEER-
ING RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BOOST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, BUT
LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. A CONTINUING INCREASE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRODUCTION OF COOLER, DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE THE FIRST STAGE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DAMA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 84.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 84.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 19.0S 86.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 20.6S 88.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 22.2S 90.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 23.7S 91.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 84.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DAMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. THE STORM HAS ACCELERATED
SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, BUT THE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE STORM WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN BY TAU 36, AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND COOLER,
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071221 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DAMA) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 19.0S 86.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 86.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 20.4S 88.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 21.9S 89.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 23.3S 90.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 86.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DAMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
T-NUMBERS OF 3.0/3.5 FROM PGTW AND 2.5/2.5 FROM FMEE. TC 07S CONTINUES
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE WEST. DE-
CREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE STORM BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. THIS TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE
COMPLETE BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071221 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DAMA) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 90.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 90.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 24.1S 92.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 27.0S 94.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 91.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DAMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM POSITION ESTIMATE
IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE WEST. DECREASING
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT HAVE INDUCED RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE STORM HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION AND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE STORM IS
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WILL COMPLETE THIS TRAN-
SITION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 15 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_dama_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]