WTXS21 PGTW 020130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 020121Z JAN 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S 119.5E TO 18.5S 121.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S
119.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S 119.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED AND MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATED REGION OF
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). IN ADDITION, A 012130Z AMSU-B PASS, A 012146Z WINDSAT PASS,
AND A 012348Z SSMIS PASS INDICATE INCREASED BANDING CONVECTION WRAP-
PING INTO THE LLCC. A 012237Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ARE ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 30 KTS NEAR LLCC. IN ADDITION IT
SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO A REGION OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM
IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DIVERGENT REGION
OF THE RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO
35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVEL-
OPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070102 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020121Z JAN 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 119.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 119.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 17.9S 119.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 21.5S 121.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 25.3S 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 119.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ISOBEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS BEGUN TO ORGANIZE IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH DEVELOPMENT BEING
ENHANCED BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS PROVIDING
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENT. THE PRESENT STORM MOTION
WILL PERSIST WITH TC 07S MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24
AND THEN DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER LAND BY TAU 36.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 020121Z
JAN 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 020130) MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070102 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 119.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 119.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 19.0S 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 23.1S 121.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 119.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ISOBEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEER-
ED RAPIDLY POLEWARD ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. AS THIS TROUGH DEEPENS,
THE STORM'S POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE ENHANCED, ALLOWING FURTHER IN-
TENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL,
TC 07S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT
BECOMES IMBEDDED IN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MIDLATITUDE PATTERN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  06S (CLOVIS) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070103 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/260752JUN2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 18.0S 120.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 120.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 22.6S 121.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 36 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 28.9S 125.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 120.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ISOBEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEER-
ED POLEWARD ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
THAT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED
IN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST.
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND NEAR TAU 06 WITH
RAPID DISSIPATION OCCURRING THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070103 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/030751JAN2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 121.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 121.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 28.2S 126.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 122.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ISOBEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED
WELL INLAND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

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