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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: 9th December 1998 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Photos and HTML...
002 David Hart [dhart at world.std.com] Photos and HTML...
003 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Cat 5 in Australia
004 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Lifted Indices Friday...
005 "Greg Spencer" [hawk at aisnet.net.au] Photos and HTML...
006 "Greg Spencer" [hawk at aisnet.net.au] Cat 5 in Australia
007 "Greg Spencer" [hawk at aisnet.net.au] Cat 5 in Australia
008 "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.co Cat 5 in Australia
009 "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.co Cat 5 in Australia
010 "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.co TC Thelma *awesome sat pics*
011 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Cat 5 in Australia
012 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Cat 5 in Australia
013 steve baynham [bayns at nor.com.au] thelma
014 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Cat 5 in Australia
015 "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.co Cat 5 in Australia
016 "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.co Here is that new Hurricane Scale article...
017 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) thelma
018 Andrew Treloar [A.Treloar at bom.gov.au] TC Thelma radar loop
019 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Lots to talk about tonight on IRC
020 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. TC Thelma radar loop
021 "Greg Spencer" [hawk at aisnet.net.au] Thelma losing steam
022 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Cat 5 in Australia
023 Brian Wheldon [briwin at connexus.net.au] Lifted Indices Friday...
024 "Jimmy Deguara" [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Lifted Indices Friday...
025 "Jimmy Deguara" [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Lifted Indices Friday...
026 Brian Wheldon [briwin at connexus.net.au] Cat 5 in Australia
027 Paul Graham [pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au] Lifted Index....
028 "Ben Quinn" [Bodie at corplink.com.au] Lifted Index
029 "Ben Quinn" [Bodie at corplink.com.au] Lifted Index
030 Sam Barricklow [k5kj at pulse.net] WX Info
031 "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au] F3 Tornado Account: Maryborough Qld
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
X-Originating-Ip: [203.25.186.112]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Photos and HTML...
Date: Tue, 08 Dec 1998 05:29:50 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi any1,
I've just chucked some new photos (from an old set I just found!) on my
web site:
http://greenfield.fortunecity.com//manchester/4/index.html
but I need to find out how to put the thumbnails in rows instead of
columns.
Any thoughts?
Yours,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002
Date: Tue, 8 Dec 1998 08:52:18 -0500
From: David Hart [dhart at world.std.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Photos and HTML...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
On Tue, 8 Dec 1998, Kevin Phyland wrote:
> Hi any1,
> I've just chucked some new photos (from an old set I just found!) on my
> web site:
>
> http://greenfield.fortunecity.com//manchester/4/index.html
>
> but I need to find out how to put the thumbnails in rows instead of
> columns.
>
> Any thoughts?
>
Kewl pics! There are a few ways to set them up in rows, but the slickest
is to create a table, put the thumbnails in cells the way you'd like, and
then reduce the divisions between the cells to 0 pictels so that the table
is not obvious.
--
David Hart Netdave on undernet #weather
Brookline MA
http://world.std.com/~dhart
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 09:44:55 +1100
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I posted some info regarding Thelma on the normal weather newsgroups and now
debate has started regarding Australian ver USA category ratings.
Anyone care to expand on this, are they the same, or are the USA ones
slightly higher, or is it simply " My .... is larger than your ...."
mentality that seems to occur in the open newsgroups.
I haven't checked it out yet but a URL has been quoted -
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqD.html
and I like this quote from one of the messages as well
"This is all conjecture anyway, since there are no direct measurements of
winds of pressure in Australia cyclones right now."
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004
X-Originating-Ip: [203.55.196.236]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Lifted Indices Friday...
Date: Tue, 08 Dec 1998 15:21:06 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi every1,
Just checked the LFTX progs for Friday 0Z, nearly the whole of Victoria
has negative values!
Could be a chance of some storms Friday, perhaps?
Kevin from Wycheproof.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005
From: "Greg Spencer" [hawk at aisnet.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Photos and HTML...
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 08:10:25 +0800
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Hi Kevin,
It's actually quite easy. If you go to the below mentioned web site and have
a look at the source (Click on View then Source in your browser), you can
see the necessary code to put the images in a table form with rows and
columns depending on how many images you have.
http://www.geocities.com/capecanaveral/hall/8714/Boeing_747/b747.html
If you cant work it from that, let me know and I'll try to make some
detailed yet easy to follow instructions for you.
Regards
Greg Spencer
----- Original Message -----
>From: Kevin Phyland
>To:
>Sent: 8 December 1998 21:29
>Subject: aussie-weather: Photos and HTML...
>
>
>Hi any1,
>I've just chucked some new photos (from an old set I just found!) on my
>web site:
>
>http://greenfield.fortunecity.com//manchester/4/index.html
>
>but I need to find out how to put the thumbnails in rows instead of
>columns.
>
>Any thoughts?
>
>Yours,
>Kevin from Wycheproof.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006
From: "Greg Spencer" [hawk at aisnet.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 08:14:02 +0800
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Hi Michael
Interesting comments. I might have to look into this one further. I do know
that from my experience from travelling in the the USA that they think that
are the best in every way over any other country. So I think you might be
right in saying they believe in the "My ... is larger than your ..."thought
Regards
Greg Spencer
----- Original Message -----
>From: Michael Thompson
>To:
>Sent: 9 December 1998 6:44
>Subject: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
>
>
>I posted some info regarding Thelma on the normal weather newsgroups and
now
>debate has started regarding Australian ver USA category ratings.
>
>Anyone care to expand on this, are they the same, or are the USA ones
>slightly higher, or is it simply " My .... is larger than your ...."
>mentality that seems to occur in the open newsgroups.
>
>I haven't checked it out yet but a URL has been quoted -
>
>http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqD.html
>
>and I like this quote from one of the messages as well
>
>"This is all conjecture anyway, since there are no direct measurements of
>winds of pressure in Australia cyclones right now."
>
>
>Michael Thompson
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007
From: "Greg Spencer" [hawk at aisnet.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 08:39:11 +0800
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi again Michael
I managed to track down a table with how the US categorizes their hurricanes
Saffir-Simpson Scale Saffir-Simpson
Category Maximum sustained wind speed Minimum surface pressure
Storm surge
mph m/s kts mb ft m
1 74-96 33-42 64-83 greater than 980 3-5 1.0-1.7
2 97-111 43-49 84-96 979-965 6-8 1.8-2.6
3 112-131 50-58 97-113 964-945 9-12 2.7-3.8
4 132-155 59-69 114-135 944-920 13-18 3.9-5.6
5 156+ 70+ 136+ less than 920 19+ 5.7+
Compare this to the Australian standards and you should get an answer to
your question
Regards
Greg Spencer
>From: Michael Thompson
>To:
>Sent: 9 December 1998 6:44
>Subject: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
>
>
>I posted some info regarding Thelma on the normal weather newsgroups and
now
>debate has started regarding Australian ver USA category ratings.
>
>Anyone care to expand on this, are they the same, or are the USA ones
>slightly higher, or is it simply " My .... is larger than your ...."
>mentality that seems to occur in the open newsgroups.
>
>I haven't checked it out yet but a URL has been quoted -
>
>http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqD.html
>
>and I like this quote from one of the messages as well
>
>"This is all conjecture anyway, since there are no direct measurements of
>winds of pressure in Australia cyclones right now."
>
>
>Michael Thompson
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008
From: "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Date: Tue, 8 Dec 1998 17:33:04 -0800
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Hi Micheal,
The categories aren't exactly the same, as the URL you posted shows. I was
gonna post that URL when I saw the topic in your post, but you did it for
me. ;)
Our current scale is under some scrutiny in fact after Hurricane Mitch. I
posted an interesting article to undernet-#weather list, and I'll try and
find that for you guys to read after I do a quick workout. In the USA, our
cyclones are not given a category until they have reached
Hurricane(74mph/64kts) status. Between 35kts and 63kts they are called
Tropical Storms. They are akin to your category 1/2 cyclones. The
difference in a Category 5 cyclone is only by a few mph/kts. Category 5 is
just plain horrific...on any scale. ;) Also, sustained winds in our scale
is averaged over 1min. Your scale has sustained winds averaged out over
10mins.
In an interesting twist...what I am more confused about here is the
difference in opinion from the BOM to the JTWC. The JTWC prints out a
maximum velocity of 135kts/155mph. On our scale that would be a Category 4
storm. (granted by a mere mph/kt) That is a VERY large departure from the
current BOM estimated intensity of Thelma. My question is, where does the
BOM come up with their initial intensity value? Does the BOM and the JTWC
coordinate at all? Which advisory is to be followed? JTWC or the BOM?
This is cause for concern. It sure as heck confuses me. ;-D But this is my
first season tracking southern hemisphere cyclones without abandon. I'm
curious to your opinions and comments on this fact.
Paul
wxguide on Undernet's #weather
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009
From: "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Date: Tue, 8 Dec 1998 17:45:02 -0800
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Hi Greg,
It's a superiority complex that we have (I am from Los Angeles). :-( It
sux let me tell you. ;) I can attest to what you are experiencing as far as
the weather is concerned.
I love watching California weather. The most weather-diverse state in the
contiguous 48. But, no one else sees it if they live east of the
continental divide. The East Coast of the USA has a very biased opinion of
the weather elsewhere. I get put down for it, I get trashed for it...but
there are others like me. =) Strength in numbers! Don't get me wrong,
there are a few that aren't like this and I am proud to know some of them!
I love tracking Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones. IMHO, they are more
beautiful, more powerful, more majestic overall then the TC's in the
Atlantic. BUT, they don't make landfall in the US all that often, and KILL
United States citizens often, therefore who cares about them.
That is the type of mentality that many here in the U.S. have. :-/ I know
I have it too...but I make an effort to trim it down. Otherwise, I wouldn't
be on this list! ;-D At any rate, on the subject of..."My ... is bigger
then your ...". If ANYONE has any right to say a statement like that, it's
the WPAC, NOT the Atlantic!
Paul
wxguide on Undernet's #weather
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010
From: "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.com]
To: "#weather Aussie list" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Cc: "#weather UNDERNET"
Subject: aussie-weather: TC Thelma *awesome sat pics*
Date: Tue, 8 Dec 1998 17:45:55 -0800
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TROPICAL CYCLONE THELMA NORTH OF AUSTRALIA
IMAGE D34202: GMS <> Channel 1,3,4 at 2 km res <> 12/08/98 07:32 UTC <>
Multichannel color composite <> Australia
Tropical Cyclone Thelma continues moving slowly toward the southwest near
Melville Island north of Australia. Winds are at 120 knots with gusts to
145 knots, and the storm is generating 23 foot waves, according to the
06:00 UTC advisory. Image posted to:
{http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Indian_Ocean/TRCthelma342_GM.gif}
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Indian_Ocean/TRCthelma342_GM.gif
--------------------------------------------------
Paul Britton Jr.
Weatherguide Productions
http://www.weatherguide.com/
"The most committed wins" -The Siege
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 13:13:00 +1100
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Thanks Paul, that does explain things a little. We have a group of storm
chasers in Darwin at present, they actually went there for the
thunderstorms, especially Hector, a almost daily thunderstorm over Melville
Island.
You may be interested in their comments when they get back, in a way the
cyclone may have ruined their thunderstorm chasing.
Regards
Michael
>
> The categories aren't exactly the same, as the URL you posted shows. I
was
>gonna post that URL when I saw the topic in your post, but you did it for
>me. ;)
>
> Our current scale is under some scrutiny in fact after Hurricane Mitch. I
>posted an interesting article to undernet-#weather list, and I'll try and
>find that for you guys to read after I do a quick workout. In the USA, our
>cyclones are not given a category until they have reached
>Hurricane(74mph/64kts) status. Between 35kts and 63kts they are called
>Tropical Storms. They are akin to your category 1/2 cyclones. The
>difference in a Category 5 cyclone is only by a few mph/kts. Category 5 is
>just plain horrific...on any scale. ;) Also, sustained winds in our scale
>is averaged over 1min. Your scale has sustained winds averaged out over
>10mins.
>
> In an interesting twist...what I am more confused about here is the
>difference in opinion from the BOM to the JTWC. The JTWC prints out a
>maximum velocity of 135kts/155mph. On our scale that would be a Category 4
>storm. (granted by a mere mph/kt) That is a VERY large departure from the
>current BOM estimated intensity of Thelma. My question is, where does the
>BOM come up with their initial intensity value? Does the BOM and the JTWC
>coordinate at all? Which advisory is to be followed? JTWC or the BOM?
>This is cause for concern. It sure as heck confuses me. ;-D But this is
my
>first season tracking southern hemisphere cyclones without abandon. I'm
>curious to your opinions and comments on this fact.
>
>Paul
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 13:22:22 +1100
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sorry Paul, I did not intend to aim my statement at any particular country
as a whole, it was intended to reflect the atitude of some individuals
regardless of nationality.
However I must confess that I for one would have rated Californian weather
as boring compared to east of the continental divide. I suppose it comes
from the storm chasing thing, if it's not thunderstorms or blizzards it does
not count - forget California's El Nino rain events, their forest fires,
their massive winter seas ( which as a surfer in my younger days I at least
realise are bigger than the east coast ), I have even heard that the Central
California Valley ( the one up near the Capital ) is a little known tornado
hot spot.
I have been to California myself and scored thunder on the mountains east of
San Diego, it was a ' monsoon ' thingy, the storms got even more frequent
as I entered Arizona.
Michael
> It's a superiority complex that we have (I am from Los Angeles). :-( It
>sux let me tell you. ;) I can attest to what you are experiencing as far
as
>the weather is concerned.
>
> I love watching California weather. The most weather-diverse state in the
>contiguous 48. But, no one else sees it if they live east of the
>continental divide. The East Coast of the USA has a very biased opinion of
>the weather elsewhere. I get put down for it, I get trashed for it...but
>there are others like me. =) Strength in numbers! Don't get me wrong,
>there are a few that aren't like this and I am proud to know some of them!
>
> I love tracking Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones. IMHO, they are more
>beautiful, more powerful, more majestic overall then the TC's in the
>Atlantic. BUT, they don't make landfall in the US all that often, and KILL
>United States citizens often, therefore who cares about them.
>
> That is the type of mentality that many here in the U.S. have. :-/ I know
>I have it too...but I make an effort to trim it down. Otherwise, I
wouldn't
>be on this list! ;-D At any rate, on the subject of..."My ... is bigger
>then your ...". If ANYONE has any right to say a statement like that, it's
>the WPAC, NOT the Atlantic!
>
>Paul
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013
X-Sender: bayns at nornet.nor.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Wed, 09 Dec 1998 12:35:20 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at nor.com.au]
Subject: aussie-weather: thelma
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey,
can anyone see thelma on radar?
steve from gold coast
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
014
Date: Wed, 09 Dec 1998 13:11:41 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Greg Spencer wrote:
>
> Hi again Michael
>
> I managed to track down a table with how the US categorizes their hurricanes
>
> Saffir-Simpson Scale Saffir-Simpson
> Category Maximum sustained wind speed Minimum surface pressure
> Storm surge
> mph m/s kts mb ft m
> 1 74-96 33-42 64-83 greater than 980 3-5 1.0-1.7
> 2 97-111 43-49 84-96 979-965 6-8 1.8-2.6
> 3 112-131 50-58 97-113 964-945 9-12 2.7-3.8
> 4 132-155 59-69 114-135 944-920 13-18 3.9-5.6
> 5 156+ 70+ 136+ less than 920 19+ 5.7+
>
> Compare this to the Australian standards and you should get an answer to
> your question
156mph = 251.06kph
70m/s = 252kph
As we all well know, TC-Thelma has reached well over this figure
(320kph), hence and easy Cat5 rating, however TC-Thelma's central
pressure of 925mb makes it a Cat4. But when it comes to destructive
force, a two-year-old could work out that it was the wind that blew
the house down (that comes from fairy-tales). As for the pressure,
well there is some risk that a leaky shampoo bottle would leak a bit
more but that doesn't matter anyway since it was probably blasted to
smithereens by the 320kph winds and debris that hit earlier:-(
All this goes to show is that the correllation between cyclonic core
low pressure a wind speed is really just a quick estimating quide if
you can't measure the wind speed directly.
Now as for tornados, their central core pressure is a different matter
altogether and one which few, if any instruments or humans going into
have managed to survive recording an instance thereof.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
015
From: "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Date: Tue, 8 Dec 1998 20:06:53 -0800
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
No problem, Michael. I was agreeing with you on the tendency to belittle
events that aren't in one's "zone of interest".
You hit it right on the head with: "if it's not thunderstorms or blizzards
it does not count". It's amazes me almost daily that I can hit the surf,
hike in the mountains or desert, all in one day. I surf occasionally (I'm
19), but the chilly water does things. ;) Seas have been monstrous over the
last few weeks. If I may, without turning this into California-weather
list....the central valley of California and the L.A. Basin are the most
active tornadic regions west of the continental divide.
Thanks for your comments Michael, I've enjoyed reading them. May I ask how
you liked California? ;)
Paul
wxguide on Undernet's #weather
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
016
From: "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.com]
To: "#weather Aussie list" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: Here is that new Hurricane Scale article...
Date: Tue, 8 Dec 1998 20:11:09 -0800
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Michael,
Here is that article I was telling you about:
MIAMI -- As the Central American nations devastated by Hurricane Mitch
struggle to pick up the pieces, meteorologists here are beginning to
consider devising a new scale for measuring hurricanes in an effort to give
the public a broader view of their potential danger.
The National Hurricane Center, which tracks most storm systems in the
Caribbean and eastern Pacific, has begun informal discussions on how to
devise a scale to measure some geographic and sociological factors that
often play crucial roles in determining how damaging a hurricane will be.
The current yardstick used to classify hurricanes, the Saffir/Simpson Scale,
measures a storm mostly by the strength of the winds at its center. An
additional scale could include "a matrix of factors that contribute to a
hurricane disaster and a computer model of that," said Jerry Jarrell, the
director of the National Hurricane Center.
Ideas on creating a new scale, which would coexist alongside the
Saffir/Simpson, are still at an embryonic stage, and no financing for such a
project has yet been procured, Jarrell said. Yet the disaster wrought by
Mitch has led many experts who study hurricanes to reassess how they are
classified.
"Mitch is what brought this to the forefront a little bit," said Stephen
Leatherman, the director of the International Hurricane Center at Florida
International University. "The community is stoked up on this."
Hurricanes are currently defined as tropical cyclones with winds of at least
74 miles an hour. The strongest type of hurricane under the Saffir/Simpson
scale is a category five, with winds of at least 155 miles an hour.
Mitch, which is estimated to have killed at least 11,000 people in Honduras
and Nicaragua in the worst storm disaster in more than 200 years, had winds
that barely reached hurricane force by the time it touched down over Central
America last month. Most of its destruction was caused by the system's
snail-like pace and its persistent rains, which drenched the region for
days, causing landslides in the mountainous terrain that buried thousands
under sheets of mud.
In contrast, Hurricane Andrew, ranked as a category four to category five
storm, killed 41 people in Florida and Louisiana. Andrew moved quickly, had
less rain, and struck a mostly flat landscape.
Besides a hurricane's winds, its ability to create a storm surge, or a
dramatic rise in sea level, has traditionally been another main factor in
determining its strength. Yet a recent study by a meteorologist at the
National Hurricane Center suggests that most deaths from hurricanes in
recent years have actually come from flooding of rivers, rather than from
storm surges, Jarrell said. Coastal communities have developed effective
evacuation plans, which reduce the danger and deaths from storm surges.
Indeed, the Saffir/Simpson scale may be more accurate in describing
hurricanes that travel over water and in coastal areas than in measuring a
storm's behavior on land, where the topography often causes changes in its
strength and speed, Leatherman said. Hilly terrain can slow a hurricane,
causing it to drench an area with rain, creating mudslides, as in Central
America.
One idea for a new scale, Jarrell said, would be to devise a list of factors
such as rain and topography, among others, and create a model weighting each
factor on a scale. Another possibility would be to have a list of factors
that different regions could consider to estimate how a hurricane would
effect a particular area.
For example, Jarrell noted, if a storm were over water, it would go on a
lower scale than one that moved over a populated area. If people were well
prepared, that would downgrade a storm. Hilly terrain would enhance it,
while striking an area with strict building codes and zoning laws would
lower the rating, he said.
"Suppose we list 50 factors, such as terrain, preparedness, population,
flash floods, etcetera," Jarrell said. "You can go down and see how it
applies. I think there are ways to do this and I think it's important."
Still, devising a scale that could apply to regions as diverse as Central
America's mountain ranges, Florida's flat topography and the many island
nations that dot the Caribbean could take years to devise and may prove
difficult to implement, experts warned.
"It would be an excellent idea to have another measure of possible damage
that a storm can do," said Bruce Albrecht, a professor of meteorology at the
University of Miami. "But from my perspective it's hard to put hurricanes in
a real category. There is a wide range of variability among the systems."
In addition, a complex measuring stick that takes into account many factors
would also have to be one that people could easily understand in order to
know how to prepare for a storm, Albrecht noted.
And because the hurricane season, June 1 to Nov. 30, does not produce that
many storms, it may be difficult to make generalizations about the
characteristics of hurricanes, he added.
Yet few dispute that the Saffir/Simpson scale probably did not adequately
portray Mitch's menace to the residents of Honduras and Nicaragua who were
aware of it days before the storm came ashore. As it hurtled towards land,
Mitch's winds increased to a maximum strength of 180 miles an hour and then
slowed considerably before striking land.
"This may have relaxed people," Jarrell said. "We expected there to be a
disaster, I don't think anyone expected 10,000 or 12,000 dead. I don't think
we were giving the real flavor of the impending disaster."
--------------------------------------------------
Paul Britton Jr.
Weatherguide Productions
http://www.weatherguide.com/
"The most committed wins" -The Siege
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
017
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: thelma
Date: Wed, 09 Dec 1998 05:28:41 GMT
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On Wed, 09 Dec 1998 12:35:20 +1000, steve baynham
wrote:
>hey,
>can anyone see thelma on radar?
Yes, Steve, and it's not terribly exciting. The eye (which has been
plainly visible on Darwin radar for a day and a half) is right on the
western edge of Darwin 1024 km radar at 05.07UTC (latest available)
with very slow WSW movement in previous hour. Moderate rain bands
still sweeping over Darwin and nearby areas, max intensity 10>20mm/hr,
but mostly light (0.2>2mm/hr). The satpix are much more interesting!
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
018
X-Sender: abt at nswalpha.nsw.bom.gov.au
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Date: Wed, 09 Dec 1998 15:51:36 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Treloar [A.Treloar at bom.gov.au]
Subject: aussie-weather: TC Thelma radar loop
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
A nice loop of TC Thelma radar images can be found at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/reguser/by_prod/radar/tcthelma2.shtml
Andrew
Senior Meteorologist
NSW Severe Weather Section, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
PO Box 413, Darlinghurst, NSW, Australia 1300
Phone: 61 2 92961524 Fax: 61 2 92961657
Email: A.Treloar at BoM.Gov.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
019
X-Sender: jacob at iinet.net.au
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Date: Wed, 09 Dec 1998 14:25:21 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aussie-weather: Lots to talk about tonight on IRC
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Remember, the IRC weekly meeting is on tonight, lots to talk about, of
course there's Tropical Cyclone Thelma, more discussion about how the
severe weather society meeting went last week in Sydney, the storms thats
been about around SE QLD and northern NSW, and also the upcoming heatwave
for the SE states. I noticed Adelaide is going for 38 tomorrow, and 40 on
Friday, Melbourne is also expecting 40 degrees on Friday.
Meeting starts tonight on IRC at undernet #weather at 9pm EDT (8:30pm CDT
in Adelaide, 8pm EST in Brisbane, 7:30pm CST in Darwin and 6pm WST in Perth)
If you haven't already got it, you can down the irc client, mIRC at
http://www.mirc.co.uk/ once you have it setup, choose one of the undernet
servers and then type /join #weather
If you're unable to use mIRC, you can chat via the web at
http://www.iinet.net.au/~jacob/chat.html
Jacob
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
020
Date: Wed, 09 Dec 1998 17:27:51 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: TC Thelma radar loop
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Andrew Treloar wrote:
>
> A nice loop of TC Thelma radar images can be found at:
>
> http://www.bom.gov.au/reguser/by_prod/radar/tcthelma2.shtml
>
> Andrew
>
Thanks Andrew!
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
021
From: "Greg Spencer" [hawk at aisnet.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: Thelma losing steam
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 15:13:58 +0800
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Hi All.
Thelma is starting to lose some of its destructive power
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE Thelma ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY DARWIN
at 3.30 pm WST (5pm CST) Wednesday 9/12/1998.
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities
between Wyndham and Kuri Bay in Western Australia.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to Cape Leveque in Western Australia.
At 3.30 pm WST (5 pm CST) SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Thelma was centred
about 290 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu and 390 kilometres
north of Wyndham.
The cyclone is moving west southwest at 5 kilometres per hour and is
expected to move slowly away from the Northern Territory coast and
closer to the Kimberley coast.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop
on the north Kimberley coast tonight or early tomorrow.
DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour may develop
on the north Kimberley coast tomorrow afternoon or evening if the
cyclone takes a more southward track.
HEAVY RAIN is likely to cause significant stream rises that may lead
to widespread flooding in the north Kimberley.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING along the north
Kimberley coast tonight and tomorrow.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Thelma at 3.30 pm WST (5 pm CST):
. Location of centre....... within 15 kilometres of
12.0 degrees South 128.0 degrees East
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest
at 5 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 290 kilometres per hour and steady
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 935 hectopascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is current between Wyndham and Kuri
Bay. A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to Cape Leveque.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 6.30 pm WST (8 pm CST).
END.
Regards
Greg Spencer
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
022
X-Originating-Ip: [203.13.168.7]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Date: Tue, 08 Dec 1998 16:34:26 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Michael,
Just checked out that link and found some interesting stuff! The
following is the relevant material...
"Note that in comparison with the Australian scale - see subject D2 -
Australian 1 and and most of Australian 2 are within the tropical storm
categorization (i.e. would not be on the Saffir-Simpson scale). An
Australian 3 would be approximately equal to either a Saffir-Simpson
category 1 or 2 hurricane. An Australian 4 would be about the same as a
Saffir-Simpson category 3 or 4 hurricane. An Australian 5 would be about
the same as a Saffir-Simpson category 5 hurricane."
As you can see, a 5 is still a 5!
The Saffir-Simpson scale used in the US is a little confusing as it
refers to both maximum wind gusts at the centre AND minimum pressure in
the eye. "Thelma is a US5 by wind gusts but only a US3 by central
pressure!
Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
>
>I posted some info regarding Thelma on the normal weather newsgroups
and now
>debate has started regarding Australian ver USA category ratings.
>
>Anyone care to expand on this, are they the same, or are the USA ones
>slightly higher, or is it simply " My .... is larger than your ...."
>mentality that seems to occur in the open newsgroups.
>
>I haven't checked it out yet but a URL has been quoted -
>
>http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqD.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
023
Date: Wed, 09 Dec 1998 20:32:48 +1100
From: Brian Wheldon [briwin at connexus.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.06 [en] (Win98; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Lifted Indices Friday...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Kevin
I need some info on this lifted index what it does and what it
all means, I have seen it used considerably since i joined Aussie Weather.
Your help would be really appreciated.
Brian Wheldon Gembrook Vic
Kevin Phyland wrote:
> Hi every1,
> Just checked the LFTX progs for Friday 0Z, nearly the whole of Victoria
> has negative values!
> Could be a chance of some storms Friday, perhaps?
>
> Kevin from Wycheproof.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
024
From: "Jimmy Deguara" [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Lifted Indices Friday...
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 20:48:58 +1100
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It is a good indicator of instability like Total totals index.
The more negative the more likelihood of severe storms .very unstable
Jimmy
-----Original Message-----
>From: Brian Wheldon
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Date: Wednesday, December 09, 1998 8:46 PM
>Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Lifted Indices Friday...
>
>
>Hi Kevin
> I need some info on this lifted index what it does and what it
>all means, I have seen it used considerably since i joined Aussie Weather.
>Your help would be really appreciated.
>Brian Wheldon Gembrook Vic
>
>Kevin Phyland wrote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
025
From: "Jimmy Deguara" [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Lifted Indices Friday...
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 20:51:11 +1100
X-Msmail-Priority: Normal
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Brian, meet you on the chat or are you on there
Jimmy
-----Original Message-----
>From: Brian Wheldon
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Date: Wednesday, December 09, 1998 8:46 PM
>Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Lifted Indices Friday...
>
>
>Hi Kevin
> I need some info on this lifted index what it does and what it
>all means, I have seen it used considerably since i joined Aussie Weather.
>Your help would be really appreciated.
>Brian Wheldon Gembrook Vic
>
>Kevin Phyland wrote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
026
Date: Wed, 09 Dec 1998 20:44:08 +1100
From: Brian Wheldon [briwin at connexus.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.06 [en] (Win98; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Paul
I good to see someone down to Earth and honest like yourself, It makes it
a lot more pleasurable to be part of a weather group. Its true you get good and bad
whereever you go, but when the good out weighs bad is the very reason we keep going,
its a pleasure to know you.
regards
Brian Wheldon Gembrook
Paul Britton Jr. wrote:
> Hi Greg,
>
> It's a superiority complex that we have (I am from Los Angeles). :-( It
> sux let me tell you. ;) I can attest to what you are experiencing as far as
> the weather is concerned.
>
> I love watching California weather. The most weather-diverse state in the
> contiguous 48. But, no one else sees it if they live east of the
> continental divide. The East Coast of the USA has a very biased opinion of
> the weather elsewhere. I get put down for it, I get trashed for it...but
> there are others like me. =) Strength in numbers! Don't get me wrong,
> there are a few that aren't like this and I am proud to know some of them!
>
> I love tracking Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones. IMHO, they are more
> beautiful, more powerful, more majestic overall then the TC's in the
> Atlantic. BUT, they don't make landfall in the US all that often, and KILL
> United States citizens often, therefore who cares about them.
>
> That is the type of mentality that many here in the U.S. have. :-/ I know
> I have it too...but I make an effort to trim it down. Otherwise, I wouldn't
> be on this list! ;-D At any rate, on the subject of..."My ... is bigger
> then your ...". If ANYONE has any right to say a statement like that, it's
> the WPAC, NOT the Atlantic!
>
> Paul
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
027
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 21:25:35 +1100 (EST)
From: Paul Graham [pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Lifted Index....
Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au
Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au
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Hi Brian and everyone,
The lifted index is a measure of stability derived from a
stability diagram (ie. temperature and dew point through the atmosphere).
The index itself is calculated for the layer from the surface to the
500Hpa level. It is the temperature difference a parcel of surface air
forced to rise from the surface would have with the surrounding air
temperature at this level (500Hpa = about 5500m). Negative values
indicate that the air at this 500Hpa level is much colder than the parcel
of surface air that has been forced to this level. This means that the
surface air parcel will continue to rise under its own buoyancy. The more
negative the values, the more buoyant the air and the greater the chance
of strong convection occurring.
However, you have to be careful in using this index because there
might be similar parcel air temperatures as environmental air temperatures
at the 500Hpa level while at other levels there exists very unstable air
(ie. sharp temperature drop with height). This could be the case if
there is a temperature inversion (ie. temperature increases with height)
or stable layer (temperature remains same with height) around this height
(500Hpa) You also have to bare in mind diurnal effects of surface heating
- it would be best to calculate the lifted index (and others) by taking
this into account.
I think the lifted index you are looking at is derived from a
computer prediction. Computer models will tend to iron out small
fluctuations in the lapse rate (temperature profile with height) - this
might not always be critical. But to get a better idea of what the
atmosphere is really like it is good to have a look at the data from
radiosonde weatherballoons. This is available for Australia from Wyoming
Uni. (can't remember the address off the top of my head but it is linked
in from M. Bath and Laurier's pages).
Probably a better predictor to look at is CAPE - Convective
Available Potential Energy (again taking into account surface heating)
which is a bit like an integrated lifted index - ie. for all levels... It
is a bit more complicated to explain so I won't go into it now but there
are some very good books around on this topic: a good one to look at is by
Howard B. Bluestein called Synoptic Dynamic Meteorology in the
Mid-Lattides.. Hope this doesn't sound too complex.
Cheers,
Paul.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
028
From: "Ben Quinn" [Bodie at corplink.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Lifted Index
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 20:31:56 +1100
X-Msmail-Priority: Normal
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>Hi Kevin
> I need some info on this lifted index what it does and what it
>all means, I have seen it used considerably since i joined Aussie Weather.
>Your help would be really appreciated.
>Brian Wheldon Gembrook Vic
>
Here are some general figures on the Lifted Index
< + 4 = Showers and Possible Thunderstorms
0 to -3 = Thunderstorms (May be severe in Winter)
< - 4 = Severe Thunderstorms (Summer)
< - 5 = Severe Thunderstorms, Tornadoes Possible
At the risk of getting a little technical The Lifted Index (LI) shows the
instability in the atmosphere by lifting a parcel of air from the surface to
500mb and comparing its temperature to that af the environment. Obviously
the lower the number then more Unstable the atmosphere is and the higher
potential for severe thunderstorms. We recently had LI's of -9 around the
greater Brisbane area, and they are often down to -6.
I am in the process of building a page with this indicie and others like it
from the Atmospheric Soundings, hopefully it wont be much longer now, i will
post the address when it is finished.
l8tr
Bodie at corplink.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
029
From: "Ben Quinn" [Bodie at corplink.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Lifted Index
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 21:22:39 +1100
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Hi Brian and everyone,
> The lifted index is a measure of stability derived from a
>stability diagram (ie. temperature and dew point through the atmosphere).
>The index itself is calculated for the layer from the surface to the
>500Hpa level. It is the temperature difference a parcel of surface air
******SNIP*******
But to get a better idea of what the
>atmosphere is really like it is good to have a look at the data from
>radiosonde weatherballoons. This is available for Australia from Wyoming
>Uni. (can't remember the address off the top of my head but it is linked
>in from M. Bath and Laurier's pages).
> Probably a better predictor to look at is CAPE - Convective
>Available Potential Energy (again taking into account surface heating)
>which is a bit like an integrated lifted index - ie. for all levels... It
>is a bit more complicated to explain so I won't go into it now but there
>are some very good books around on this topic: a good one to look at is by
>Howard B. Bluestein called Synoptic Dynamic Meteorology in the
>Mid-Lattides.. Hope this doesn't sound too complex.
> Cheers,
> Paul.
Very soon i will have a page that explains how to interperate the data from
the Atmospheric Soundings, in detail for those who have previous experience,
and in a more simplistic way for those with no previous experience. It will
cover every indicie, and is from the information i have gathered from the
internet in the last month or so. I found it VERY hard to get any
information from books from my local library, and even the State Library, so
hopefully this will be of some use to people on the list as i find them a
great forecast tool (Especialy for severe weather).
l8tr
Bodie at corplink.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
030
Date: Wed, 09 Dec 1998 05:24:47 -0600
From: Sam Barricklow [k5kj at pulse.net]
Organization: SKYWARN
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; U)
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: WX Info
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Take a look at:
http://www.pulse.net/storm/training.htm
for a list of weather essays and FAQs available on the WWW.
Sam Barricklow
http://www.thestormshop.com/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
031
From: "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: F3 Tornado Account: Maryborough Qld
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 22:42:01 +1000
X-Msmail-Priority: Normal
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all
I have just included quite a scary account of someone who experienced the
Nov 29, 1992 F3 tornado near Maryborough. An F4 tornado occurred to the
north an hour later.
Enjoy:
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm/reports/nov29_92.html
------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
| Document: 981209.htm
Updated: 25th February, 1999 |
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