Date: Mon, 02 Nov 1998 00:25:22 +1100
Subject: aussie-weather: Position of GMS5
From: "Mark Hardy" 
To: aussie weather 
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

OK - I found it at ftp://cyclone.msfc.nasa.gov/Weather/GMS-5/

Cheers.

Does anybody out there know the exact positioning of GMS5?
I have been looking for it's lat lon and altitude (above the surface). I
have found that it is lat 0, long 140E and 35,800km above the earth. Does
anybody have info which is more accurate than this?

Many thanks, Mark

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X-Originating-Ip: [203.37.41.20]
From: "Patrick Tobin" 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Cold night in Canberra
Date: Sun, 01 Nov 1998 14:36:05 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Canberra airport had an overnight minimum of zero this morning - I guess 
this must go close to pushing a record for November (Blair?).

To add to Michael's comments about this Spring. With very little storm 
activity or rain over the last 8 weeks in this region, it is starting to 
feel like what I would associate as a stereotypical El Nino year - not 
the La Nina that we are supposedly heading into.

I guess it show the complexity of our weather determinants - there is a 
lot more to it than just Pacific Ocean currents and the Southern 
Oscillation.

Patrick Tobin


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X-Sender: hdewit at postoffice.sa.bom.gov.au
Date: Mon, 02 Nov 1998 09:57:57 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Hank de Wit 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Grafton radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

At 08:15 31/10/98 GMT, you wrote:
>I notice in some of the stuff I get on CMSS reference to a new radar
>at Grafton. Can any of you folk who subscribe to the Bureau radar
>confirm whether it has shown up?  Is Coffs Harbour radar still
>operating, or does Grafton replace it?

Hi Laurier,

The file for the radar you are looking for is IDR281.gif. As I'm internal
to the bureau I can't tell whether it's available outside - though I can't
see why not. Try using the URL you now use, substituting the above name.

As I'm not in NSW and no longer active in forecasting I'm not aware of how
long it's been operating, but it must be after September, going by the
minutes of a NSW RFC meeting.

Cheers


Hank de Wit
Regional Computer Manager
Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia
H.deWit at BoM.gov.au
ph: 08 8366 2674
http://www.sa.bom.gov.au/~hdewit (INTRANET access only)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Blair Trewin 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cold night in Canberra
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 10:55:01 +1100 (EST)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> 
> Canberra airport had an overnight minimum of zero this morning - I guess 
> this must go close to pushing a record for November (Blair?).
Pushing but not quite there. Came in at -1 in the end (rounded). The
record is -1.8 (28/11/1967). It has been below 0 in 12 out of the 
59 Novembers in the record (most recently in 1996). There are a
number of below-zero obs in the early part of November but only two
(both in 1967, and interestingly, the two lowest November obs) after
the 11th.

6 in Melbourne this morning - lowest November min since 1993. -2 at
Ararat (not a record). 

Blair Trewin

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X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au
Date: Mon, 02 Nov 1998 12:25:50
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Grafton radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All,

Just go to the NSW radar list as it appears there (there are no 256km
images though). The clickable maps have not been updated.
http://www.bom.gov.au/reguser/by_prod/radar/nsw.shtml

Michael

At 09:57 AM 02/11/1998 +1000, you wrote:
>At 08:15 31/10/98 GMT, you wrote:
>>I notice in some of the stuff I get on CMSS reference to a new radar
>>at Grafton. Can any of you folk who subscribe to the Bureau radar
>>confirm whether it has shown up?  Is Coffs Harbour radar still
>>operating, or does Grafton replace it?
>
>Hi Laurier,
>
>The file for the radar you are looking for is IDR281.gif. As I'm internal
>to the bureau I can't tell whether it's available outside - though I can't
>see why not. Try using the URL you now use, substituting the above name.
>
>As I'm not in NSW and no longer active in forecasting I'm not aware of how
>long it's been operating, but it must be after September, going by the
>minutes of a NSW RFC meeting.

*==========================================================*
 Michael Bath  Oakhurst, Sydney   mbath at ozemail.com.au
                 Australian Severe Weather
       http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
*==========================================================*

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Blair Trewin 
Subject: aussie-weather: October SOI
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 12:36:55 +1100 (EST)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

 SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX BULLETIN
 Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin
 Issued at 0755 hours on   Monday , 02/11/98
 
 Darwin mean MSL pressure for October 1998: 1009.7 hPa
 Darwin MSL pressure anomaly:            minus 1.0 hPa
 Tahiti mean MSL pressure for October 1998: 1014.4 hPa
 Tahiti MSL pressure anomaly:             plus 0.8 hPa
 
                      SOI: plus 11 (no change)
 5 month running mean SOI: plus 11 (centred on August)
 
 Darwin mean 0900 MSL pressure for October 1998: 1011.7 hPa

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Date: Mon, 02 Nov 1998 09:49:50 +0800
From: Michael Fewings 
Organization: Edith Cowan Uni
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Position of GMS5
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi,
Mike from Perth here,
Try the link below. It is a javasite with a map of the satellites in orbit
around the globe. Have a good fiddle and you will work out how to find the
one your after.
This is a really great site for finding any one of 500 satellites in orbit
over the globe. Enjoy.
 http://liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/realtime/jtrack/3d/JTrack3d.html
Mike

Mark Hardy wrote:

> Does anybody out there know the exact positioning of GMS5?
> I have been looking for it's lat lon and altitude (above the surface). I
> have found that it is lat 0, long 140E and 35,800km above the earth. Does
> anybody have info which is more accurate than this?
>
> Many thanks, Mark

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 12:53:31 +1000
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: October SOI
Content-Disposition: inline
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Thanx for those Balir.....very interesting. The patterns still are very
interesting though. Last October was a very dry one for this region. I know
that Don White has been prediciting severe storms in the next 6 weeks, and
a greater prospect of TC's. However, I , like the rest of those on this
mailing list, are wondering when this supposed La Nina event is really
going to kick in. The total abscence of thunderstorm activity is
interesting. With only 1 month till Summer......one is wondering...........

Paul.

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From: disarm at braenet.com.au
X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified)
Date: Mon, 02 Nov 1998 14:14:09 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: meteor storm november 17
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

just a question...
can it be viewed in the southern hemishphere, and if so where do we look! :)
i read in the newspaper it is expected that this will happen every november
for the next 5 years...
matt from sydne.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Blair Trewin 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: October SOI
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 14:05:58 +1100 (EST)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> 
> 
> 
> Thanx for those Balir.....very interesting. The patterns still are very
> interesting though. Last October was a very dry one for this region. I know
> that Don White has been prediciting severe storms in the next 6 weeks, and
> a greater prospect of TC's. However, I , like the rest of those on this
> mailing list, are wondering when this supposed La Nina event is really
> going to kick in. The total abscence of thunderstorm activity is
> interesting. With only 1 month till Summer......one is wondering...........
The last big La Nina, in 1988-89, also took its time - on that 
occasion the SOI peaked in late 1988, but the major rainfall anomalies
in eastern Australia were in autumn 1989 - in fact, that period 
included the exceptionally dry and hot month of October 1988.
There was quite a bit of local storm activity in late 1988, but
this was rather patchy (there was a memorable downpour in Melbourne
on Christmas Day).

1973-74 also peaked, rainfall-wise, in early 1974, although 1973 was
a wet year too.

Blair Trewin

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From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 14:36:03 +1000
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: October SOI
Content-Disposition: inline
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Great, thanx Blair (i spelt it properly this time!! heheheh).

I was wondering what the Bureaus opinion on this was. Are they of the
opinion like Don White, of increased severe weather ( either by way of TC's
or Tstorms.)

Paul.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 14:43:24 +1000
Subject: aussie-weather: Current Obs.
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Taree is currently 18c , wind is from South, sky 3/8 with Towering cumulus,
producing the occasional heavy shower. Wind has eased from very gusty last
night, to now gusting up to about 15 - 20km/h.

Still bloody cold.............grrrrrrrrr!!


Paul.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Blair Trewin 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: October SOI
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 14:49:44 +1100 (EST)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> 
> 
> 
> Great, thanx Blair (i spelt it properly this time!! heheheh).
> 
> I was wondering what the Bureaus opinion on this was. Are they of the
> opinion like Don White, of increased severe weather ( either by way of TC's
> or Tstorms.)
> 
> Paul.
So far the seasonal outlook statement is worded 'positive SOI numbers
at this time of year are linked with above average numbers of
tropical cyclones in the Australian region during the northern wet
season'.

(By the way, those who follow the Seasonal Outlook - which is
available through http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ - may have noticed
that it is now being issued two weeks before the start of the outlook
period, rather than at the start of the period as was the case in
the past).

No-one has made any comment on severe thunderstorm risk - I'm not
aware of any work done on ENSO/thunderstorm links (as distinct from
ENSO/rainfall links - the intuitive conclusion might be that higher
rainfall implies more severe thunderstorms, but intuitive 
conclusions don't always work in this game), which doesn't mean that
there isn't any.

Blair Trewin

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 14:55:36 +1000
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: October SOI
Content-Disposition: inline
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Blair, Thanx again! A wealth of information!!

How long does the BOM expect the "la Nina" for want of a better word, to
last?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: disarm at braenet.com.au
X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified)
Date: Mon, 02 Nov 1998 15:21:14 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

http://www.qantmnt.au-net.com/webcam/index.html 
if you get this around 3.15 or so today, (i just viewed it) there is a nice
storm in hte making off the coast on the darwin storm cam..:)
cheers
Matt

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Blair Trewin 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: October SOI
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 15:09:37 +1100 (EST)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> How long does the BOM expect the "la Nina" for want of a better word, to
> last?
Most of the coupled models (here and overseas) are expecting cold
anomalies to persist for the next 6 months - after that they start
to diverge. For what it's worth the BMRC model is expecting cold
anomalies to persist throughout 1999, returning to neutral in early
2000.

A good collation of assorted model forecasts can be found in the
Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin (http://www.iges.org/ellfb/).
All the usual suspects can be found there.

Blair Trewin

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X-Sender: bayns at nornet.nor.com.au
Date: Mon, 02 Nov 1998 14:55:48 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham 
Subject: aussie-weather: meteor storm nov 17
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

matt,
this shower will be visible for us aussies. just look up, you'll see them.
i don't know about that every five years! there might be another storm same
time next year. but other than that they only occur every 33 years!
steve from gold coast
p.s its fairly cloudy up here, very windy
p.ss that satellite tracking thing is cool!!! thanx

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Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 00:07:51 -0500
From: David Hart 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Administrivia
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Congratulations, the list now has 50 addresses subscribed to it. Thats
not fifty people though, some folks are subscribed with both their work
addresses and they home e-mail address. It's still a lot.

If you know of anyone who is interested in subscribing to the list, its
easier now. I have a web page where all you have to do is type in your
e-mail address, and click on the "subscribe" button. You still have to
confirm the subscription though.

	http://world.std.com/~dhart/list.html

Finally, have we had any more duplicate message problems?


-David Hart-

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Subject: aussie-weather: SOI and thunderstorms
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 98 16:36:22 +1000
X-Sender: mildad at mail.one.net.au
From: mildad 
To: 
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

>No-one has made any comment on severe thunderstorm risk - I'm not
>aware of any work done on ENSO/thunderstorm links (as distinct from
>ENSO/rainfall links - the intuitive conclusion might be that higher
>rainfall implies more severe thunderstorms, but intuitive 
>conclusions don't always work in this game), which doesn't mean that
>there isn't any.

I remember reading this summary of work being done by Ivan Kuhnel at the 
National Hazards Reseach Centre at Macquarie uni "..Ivan is working 
currently on a detailed climatological analysis of the NHRC hail data set 
for Sydney. This investigation focuses mostly on the interannual 
variability of the data and the relationship between the hailfall 
activity and large-scale atmospheric patterns, such as the ENSO..." 
{http://www.es.mq.edu.au/nhrc/current1.html}

Although, when the results of this study become available I guess we 
might have some idea, logically (and I'm not a meteorologist), I can't 
see how would ENSO would have such a strong effect on the development of 
thunderstorms/severe thunderstorms in eastern Australia, unlike tropical 
cyclones where their development is directly related to ocean 
temperatures.  While I guess all thunderstorm enthusiasts understand the 
importance of the warm gulf stream as a source of deep moisture for 
fueling the mid US dryline and frontal storms, I can't see that the same 
situation exists here and I'm less sure of how ENSO affects ocean temps 
at more temperate latitudes such as where the Sydney storms feed off. You 
might remember that Michael Thompson and Jimmy Deguara discussed earlier 
on the list the alignment of the low pressure troughs such that they were 
dragging dry air in. It would seem that regardless of how warm and moist 
the pacific air was during this period and how unstable the atmosphere 
was, none of the moisture would have been available for convection 
anyway. 

However just to contradict myself I noticed that the last signficant 
turnaround from -ve to +ve SOI values occured in mid 1995, although it 
has not been as pronounced as the current one (follow the SOI link in the 
BoM's SILO section) - the following spring summer (1995/6) was the best 
storm season I can recall in Sydney since I became interested in 
thunderstorms. Perhaps it's just coincidental.

David Croan

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cold night in Canberra
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 20:45:10 +1100
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I actually felt very much like saying exactly that, last year with El Nino
there was a lot of storm activity in northern NSW, but I suppose the heat
aided convection to some extent, many of the storms where rather dry. I
remember being at Foster in late November and a storm gave an impressive
lightning show for 3-4 hours in the wee hours of the night, but very little
precipitation fell. I think several fires started in the Coonabarabran
region that night from strikes.

This week is only going to make us even more dissappointed, although a light
thundery may pop up west of Canberra late in the week.

Regards
Michael

>activity or rain over the last 8 weeks in this region, it is starting to
>feel like what I would associate as a stereotypical El Nino year - not
>the La Nina that we are supposedly heading into.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "paulmoss" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cold night in Canberra
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 21:21:25 +1100
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Howdy all......howdy Michael...(I believe you may be getting some thundery
rain there at the moment)......current Taree obs are 14.1c (cold!), 1.5mm
rain, wind from the South at 5 - 10km/h, bar is 1027hpa

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "paulmoss" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Where is everyone?/
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 21:27:03 +1100
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Where is everyone tonight?? Jane. mark, Anthony, James, Jacob, Dane, ???
hello???
Jimmy, Michael??
hmmmmmm.............

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X-Originating-Ip: [203.13.168.7]
From: "Kevin Phyland" 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Sunspots et al.
Date: Mon, 02 Nov 1998 03:04:47 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi every1,

When I was at Uni I asked about a fellow named Lennox Walker and was 
told that he used Sunspot theory for long range forecasts. Can anyone 
tell me if there is any solid basis to sunspot theory and what 
terrestrial patterns there are for forecasting.
I was quite interested (by ignorance mostly) but by the response to my 
questions I might have been asking about eading tea leaves!

Kevin Phyland.

______________________________________________________
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Date: Mon, 02 Nov 1998 23:59:18 +1100
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sunspots et al.
From: "Mark Hardy" 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Kevin

I have asked a few people in the BoM about Lennox Walker and received a
similar response. He certainly does not seem to be taken seriously by
professionals. However his forecasts appear regularly in highly regarded
publications such as The Land. I have not seen any long term analysis of his
accuracy. His forecasts tend to be worded fairly vaguely which would make
any kind of statistical analysis very difficult. So, the legend lives on....

Mark
----------
>From: "Kevin Phyland" 
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aussie-weather: Sunspots et al.
>Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 10:04 PM
>

>Hi every1,
>
>When I was at Uni I asked about a fellow named Lennox Walker and was 
>told that he used Sunspot theory for long range forecasts. Can anyone 
>tell me if there is any solid basis to sunspot theory and what 
>terrestrial patterns there are for forecasting.
>I was quite interested (by ignorance mostly) but by the response to my 
>questions I might have been asking about eading tea leaves!
>
>Kevin Phyland.