Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 00:00:47 +1000
From: Greg Browning 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne-Here's Hoping
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Dane, good to hear from a fellow weather nut in good ol' Melbourne
Town.  As soon as I reinstall my  Excell software I will, with great
interest, check out the Melb storm data- thanks heaps for making it
available.
Since Jane seems also to be hopeful of a stormy weekend we Melburnians
should keep a close eye on things to keep the others informed. Let's
hope those MRF's prove a bit more fruitful this time!

Greg Browning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 10:23:59 +1000
From: david.croan at agal.gov.au (David Croan)
Subject: aussie-weather: SC storm spacing
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, Paul Graham 
Content-Description: cc:Mail note part
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I am sure that most of you have read the report in storm news of the tornadic 
outbreak which occurred in the central west/north west slopes of NSW on 29th 
September 1996. The satpic shows a striking line of supercells teardrops - I 
realise that the scale of this image is quite different from the Brisbane radar 
and not all cells in the line on the satellite image are confirmed supercells, 
nevertheless, the proximity of these storms seems rather close..



______________________________ Reply Separator _________________________________
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Bow Echo...
Author:  Paul Graham  at agal-email
Date:    14/10/98 6:42 PM


Quite true: storm spacing can affect the severity depending on how much 
energy is available.  I remember reading about the report from the Bureau 
of Meteorology on the March, 1990 Hailstorm in Sydney which is believed to 
have fit the description of high precipitation supercell.  PPI Radar scans 
are shown as part of the report and several cells are detected moving in 
the same direction as the severe cell which passed over Sydney.  The 
authors suggest that, since supercell type storms have an anomalous 
movement when compared with short lived single or multi type storms, the 
other storms that day may also have been severe (they moved through 
sparsley populated areas).  - Paul. 
     
On Wed, 14 Oct 1998, Anthony Cornelius wrote:
     
> Paul - I was thinking the same thing that perhaps both cells were infact 
> supercells, but in my opinion, it's quite rare to have a severe
> supercell quite close to another severe cell, let alone two supercells! 
> As supercells generally form where there are no storms, the mesocyclone 
> storm hit Fortitude Valley and Kangaroo Point areas - giving them in my 
> opinion an F1 (F2 possible?) tornado.  The bow echo cell was the one
> that went over myself.  Although I don't have as much experience as 
> other people in wx because I am much younger then most - but what do 
> other people think about the possibility of 2 supercells almost
> side-by-side?
> 
> Anthony Cornelius
> 
> Paul Graham wrote:
> 
> > Yes, one of the cells (perhaps the Brisbane storm?) has a very 
> > distinctive
> > and persistent bow echo - probably a supercell - and another also 
> > shows a
> > hook consistent with a mesocyclone.  Interestingly, most of the cells 
> > seem
> > to be moving in the same direction - all supercells?  There doesn't 
> > seem
> > to be any indication of "splitting" either. 
> >
> > Thanks for the radar images Michael. - Paul. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 10:48:36 +1000
From: Michael Scollay 
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: 19981015-20 MRF Storm Potential
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Looking at the MRF's today makes me wonder whether storm-chasers
should be heading into the interior around NT (Alice Springs) through
Lake Eyer into NW & Central-NSW for the next six days or so. As long
as this NCEP/MRF stuff has been on the 'net, I've not seen so much
precipitation and precipitable water forecasts through this area for
such an extended time. Coupled with such a severe trough gives the
potential for severe storms in this region. As in Sept 1996, these are
conditions that might produce tornados. Satpic of 199810142225 already
shows a storm build-up in Central Australia without the front. Bring a
strong front into the picture and wullah! The inland also gives clear
views for photography at a distance albeit through sparse access,
quite unlike "tornado alley" in the US of A.

Major pity is that the expected frontal system looks like loosing some
of its severe storm potential for NE,E-NSW/S-QLD the further it moves
NE. The SE edge around the NE-VIC/SE-NSW region both west of and on
the ranges has the greatest precipitation forecast on Monday moving to
N, Central & NE-NSW inland and E-NSW coastal on Tuesday.

 ,-_|\    Michael Scollay       mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
/     \   Telstra Technology    4/231 Elizabeth St. Sydney NSW 2000
\_,^._*   Strategy & Research   snail: Locked Bag 6682 GPO Sydney 1100
     v    Sydney NSW Australia  +61 2 9287 5233P +61 2 9287 5031F

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Blair Trewin 
Subject: aussie-weather: Stroms in southern NT
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 14:49:39 +1000 (EST)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Looks like some impressive storms on the radar in the 
Alice Springs area and to the west - quite a few areas
of 40mm/hour plus indicated. No warnings out, although
IIRC NT don't do thunderstorm warnings (except maybe for
the Darwin metro area?). 

The 0430 UTC METAR for Alice Springs was reporting a
heavy shower to the west.

I'll be interested to see the rainfall totals on the 
1500 bulletin.

Blair Trewin

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: confirmed supercell
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 15:45:06 +1000
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Hi all

I just talked to a guy in the severe weather section at the Brisbane Weather Bureau
and he confirmed that it was a supercell.  He said the cell responsible that was
heading towards Brisbane suddenly intensified just after 2pm when it hit the
seabreeze front. Dozens of people he said noticed the rotating mesocyclone (I didn't
because rain spoiled my view) and the amateur video showing the swirls of debris was
probably a 'young' tornado that wasn't able to reach full strength. He seemed
hesitant to call it a tornado.  I told him it either was or it isn't.  He half agreed
to that!

I asked him about the damage in Warwick and straight line winds were responsible. 
There was no evidence of a tornado.  Soon I hope to have a full report on the events
of Tuesday, October 13 1998 on my site.

Catch ya later
James from Brissie (storm capital of the Universe!) Not. My place has had about 15
Thunderdays this year, which isn't so bad.
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: storm warnings in victoria
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 15:55:39 +1000
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Hello again

I just noticed an old storm warning for Melbourne.  Can anyone tell me why the
Melbourne Weather Bureau warn for non-severe t'storms in Victoria?  I'm thinking if
they suddenly warn for likely severe t'storms maybe not so many people will listen,
thinking it's just another weak storm.

Maybe they have more money down there and can afford to warn for storms that may
cause injury because of lightning strikes...I'm at a loss

I would like some feedback on this because its happened time and time again.

James in Bris
www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Nick Sykes" 
To: "aussie-weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Severe Weather in Melbourne Saturday
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 16:36:26 +1000
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Hi all, just read the Victorian forecast for Saturday, sounding pretty
interesting, does anyone think there is a chance of severe thunderstorms im
Melbourne Saturday.


BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
VICTORIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1620 on Thursday the 15th of October 1998

Warnings
Nil.

Victoria
A high pressure system will drift across Victoria overnight to lie east of
the
state later on Friday. After a fairly cold night with fog patches, Friday
will
be fine and generally sunny. Warmer northerly winds will develop in the west
but
light winds and coastal seabreezes will prevail in central and eastern
parts.
UV INDEX: Friday 7 [Very High]

Saturday will be warm to very warm with strengthening northerly winds ahead
of
an approaching cold front. The front will reach the west in the afternoon
then
extend eastwards in the evening bringing cooler gusty west to southwest
winds,
patchy rain and local thunder.

The cold front will move through eastern Victoria on Sunday and there will
be
some rain in all districts.  Winds will  be cool moderate to fresh westerly.

West to southwesterly winds will continue on Monday as another cold front
moves
through Victoria and there will be scattered showers, mainly over southern
and
mountain districts.


Melbourne

Tonight and Friday
Fine. A mainly sunny day with light wind, tending northerly, and afternoon
sea
breezes.

Min  8    Max  22

Saturday
Late change with thundery showers.          Min 13    Max 29

Sunday
Rain at times.                              Min 15    Max 18

Monday
Few showers.                                Min 10    Max 16

Port Phillip Bay and Western Port

Tonight and Friday
Southerly wind at about 10 knots becoming variable at 5 knots overnight.
Wind
tending northerly tomorrow to 10 knots with afternoon seabreezes of similar
strength.  Waves to about half a metre.

Saturday
Strengthening northerly wind ahead a late gusty west to southwest change.

Sunday
Moderate to fresh west to southwest wind.

Monday
Moderate to fresh west to southwest wind.

Headline Melbourne: Fine. Mainly sunny.
Headline Victoria:  Fine but for local morning fog. Cold night. Mild to warm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 19:08:17 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Re: aussie-weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Howdy all. Eeveryones gone quiet tonight?? How was the meeting last night on
IRC? Any interesting points raised?

Paul from Taree.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 19:22:48 +1000
From: Matthew Piper 
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Re: aussie-weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Paul,

Last nights IRC discussed the Brisbane storm, Super Typhoon Zeb and Severe
Storms in General.

Matthew

paulmoss at tpgi.com.au wrote:

> Howdy all. Eeveryones gone quiet tonight?? How was the meeting last night on
> IRC? Any interesting points raised?
>
> Paul from Taree.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 19:27:53 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: (no subject)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

lAURIER: Thanx for the info on the upper air diagrams. Excellent stuff. Makes it
alot clearer now. I will fire off questions as they come to mind and the 1st one
is: (for anybody to answer!)

What sort of cape levels do you require for thunderstorms/sever e storms?? Is
there a general guide?

Regards, Paul from Taree

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 21:09:08 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Severe Weather in Melbourne Saturday
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Hi Nick -
I noticed that Melbourne is forecasted to go down to 13 for a minimum,
this is actually quite cool and indicates that the DP is relatively low,
which really does limit the possibility of storms, let alone severe
storms in itself.

NGP is showing some fairly high levels of expected precipitation and the
bar is expected to dip below 1000 - where as MRF has the pressure
dipping to around 1004.  This is good, however there are high levels of
moisture predicted in the upper atmosphere indicated by the NGP models -
MRF also shows this, but acutally has the entire system moving through
later then NGP.  Although my personal favourite models is MRF, the new
MRF models won't be out for another hour or two, and the NGP models are
more up to date.  The problem with high moisture levels in the upper
atmosphere is that rain will tend to prevail over t'storms.  TT's will
be around 45 - which is the threshold for severe t'storms.  The models
also show some good vertical uplift for storms.  A nice strong,
divergent jetstream is also present - another key occurrence for severe
t'storms!  However the main problems are these:

1) The air in Melbourne will probably be too dry, you will be getting
N'ly and NW'ly winds which will certainly dry the air out!  (I guess
this is one reason why SE QLD is lucky, NE, N and NW winds are all
moist, as NW winds run about parallel to the coast line - well, almost)

2) High levels of moisture in the amtmosphere - rain more likely, the
problem with rain is that it never just "appears" like storms do, rather
you get a period of a few hours where clouds thicken and can sometimes
cool the area down.  Rain can also surpress updrafts in my experience.

Your only saving grace could be the sea breeze for coastal areas, but it
is unlikely this will be enough for any severe t'storm development. IF
you do get storms I personally don't believe they'll be severe, but in
the end, all we have are forecast models that basically say "if the
weather patterns do what they should, this will happen" and as well all
know, weather rarely does what it should!

Anthony Cornelius

Nick Sykes wrote:

> Hi all, just read the Victorian forecast for Saturday, sounding pretty
>
> interesting, does anyone think there is a chance of severe
> thunderstorms im
> Melbourne Saturday.
>
> BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> VICTORIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
> Issued at 1620 on Thursday the 15th of October 1998
>
> Warnings
> Nil.
>
> Victoria
> A high pressure system will drift across Victoria overnight to lie
> east of
> the
> state later on Friday. After a fairly cold night with fog patches,
> Friday
> will
> be fine and generally sunny. Warmer northerly winds will develop in
> the west
> but
> light winds and coastal seabreezes will prevail in central and eastern
>
> parts.
> UV INDEX: Friday 7 [Very High]
>
> Saturday will be warm to very warm with strengthening northerly winds
> ahead
> of
> an approaching cold front. The front will reach the west in the
> afternoon
> then
> extend eastwards in the evening bringing cooler gusty west to
> southwest
> winds,
> patchy rain and local thunder.
>
> The cold front will move through eastern Victoria on Sunday and there
> will
> be
> some rain in all districts.  Winds will  be cool moderate to fresh
> westerly.
>
> West to southwesterly winds will continue on Monday as another cold
> front
> moves
> through Victoria and there will be scattered showers, mainly over
> southern
> and
> mountain districts.
>
> Melbourne
>
> Tonight and Friday
> Fine. A mainly sunny day with light wind, tending northerly, and
> afternoon
> sea
> breezes.
>
> Min  8    Max  22
>
> Saturday
> Late change with thundery showers.          Min 13    Max 29
>
> Sunday
> Rain at times.                              Min 15    Max 18
>
> Monday
> Few showers.                                Min 10    Max 16
>
> Port Phillip Bay and Western Port
>
> Tonight and Friday
> Southerly wind at about 10 knots becoming variable at 5 knots
> overnight.
> Wind
> tending northerly tomorrow to 10 knots with afternoon seabreezes of
> similar
> strength.  Waves to about half a metre.
>
> Saturday
> Strengthening northerly wind ahead a late gusty west to southwest
> change.
>
> Sunday
> Moderate to fresh west to southwest wind.
>
> Monday
> Moderate to fresh west to southwest wind.
>
> Headline Melbourne: Fine. Mainly sunny.
> Headline Victoria:  Fine but for local morning fog. Cold night. Mild
> to warm
>
> -------
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> ----
> Return to: Met Net (Home page) Help Search this site Send:Feedback
> � Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 1998, Bureau of Meteorology.
> Users of these Web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
> conditions
> described in the copyright declaration.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 07:10:53 -0400
From: David Hart 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: returned messages
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I got messages that a couple of postings on the list bounced because of
their size. There is an upward limit on the size of a message so that
among other things we dont get mail-bombed. For large graphics its ususaly
better to put them on the web somewhere, and then point to the URL on the
list.


--
On Thu, 15 Oct 1998 aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com wrote:
> 
> Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 05:04:54 -0400 (EDT)
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> To: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> Subject: BOUNCE aussie-weather at world.std.com:     Message too long (>40000
>     chars)  
> 
> >From owner-aussie-weather  Thu Oct 15 05:04:30 1998
> Return-Path: 
> Received: from world.std.com by europe.std.com (8.7.6/BZS-8-1.0)
> 	id FAA13349; Thu, 15 Oct 1998 05:04:30 -0400 (EDT)
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> 	id AA23065; Thu, 15 Oct 1998 05:03:02 -0400
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> ; Thu, 15 Oct 1998 19:02:05 +1000 (EST)
> Message-Id: <3625B727.7F2DB695 at ozemail.com.au>
> Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 18:49:44 +1000
> From: Matthew Piper 
> X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5b2 [en] (Win95; I)
> X-Accept-Language: en
> Mime-Version: 1.0
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Brisbane Webcam Images
> Content-Type: multipart/mixed;
>  boundary="------------7732C5EBF82B71492F4542F6"


[snip]

On Thu, 15 Oct 1998 aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com wrote:
> 
> Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 06:52:43 -0400 (EDT)
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> To: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> Subject: BOUNCE aussie-weather at world.std.com:     Message too long (>40000
>     chars)  
> 
> >From owner-aussie-weather  Thu Oct 15 06:52:06 1998
> Return-Path: 
> Received: from world.std.com by europe.std.com (8.7.6/BZS-8-1.0)
> 	id GAA04263; Thu, 15 Oct 1998 06:51:44 -0400 (EDT)
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> 	id AA02582; Thu, 15 Oct 1998 06:48:48 -0400
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> fep6.mail.ozemail.net (8.9.0/8.6.12) with ESMTP id UAA17079 for
> ; Thu, 15 Oct 1998 20:48:19 +1000 (EST)
> Message-Id: <3625D2C2.BAE295E4 at ozemail.com.au>
> Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 20:47:30 +1000
> From: Matthew Piper 
> X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5b2 [en] (Win95; I)
> X-Accept-Language: en
> Mime-Version: 1.0
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Brisbane Webcam Images
> Content-Type: multipart/mixed;
>  boundary="------------05E71F92789074B7D989BE9E"
> 
> This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
> --------------05E71F92789074B7D989BE9E
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
> Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
> 
> Here are some of the images that I obtained from the Brisbane Webcam on
> Tuesday.
> 
> Matthew
> 
> --------------05E71F92789074B7D989BE9E
> Content-Type: image/jpeg;
>  name="test13.jpg"
> Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64
> Content-Disposition: inline;
>  filename="test13.jpg"
> 
> 

David Hart

dhart at world.std.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 23:37:36 +1000 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: RE: Brisbane Supercell...
Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I thought it was interesting that it (the Brisbane storm), and a couple of
other storms seemed to develop bow echoes as they approached the coast and
they also changed direction slightly at this point.  Possibly an
interaction with the sea-breeze front aided the development of a
mesocyclone - if you look on the Brisbane sounding, you will notice wind
barbs on the right hand side.  In the lower levels of the atmosphere, the
wind significantly backs around from the north to become a westerly at
higher levels as you would expect.  Backing (or sometimes veering) is a
significant factor in the formation of mesocyclones (as well as shear).  I
have a feeling that some similar sort of interaction may have occured with
the Sydney, January, 21st, 1991, supercell since it very rapidly
intensified as it approached the coast.  These coastal supercells are
quite interesting... - Paul G. 


I just talked to a guy in the severe weather section at the Brisbane
Weather Bureau and he confirmed that it was a supercell.  He said the cell
responsible that was heading towards Brisbane suddenly intensified just
after 2pm when it hit the seabreeze front.  Dozens of people he said
noticed the rotating mesocyclone (I didn't because rain spoiled my view)
and the amateur video showing the swirls of debris was probably a 'young'
tornado that wasn't able to reach full strength. He seemed hesitant to
call it a tornado.  I told him it either was or it isn't.  He half agreed
to that! 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 23:21:50 +1000 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: (no subject)
Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au
Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

CAPE (Convective Availabe Potential Energy) values are usually quite high
(as you would expect) for severe storms.  Often values are over 2000J per
Kg.  An index which is used as an indicator for storm type is the Bulk
Richardson Number.  This is an index derived from CAPE and wind Shear over
a layer.  BRN values of between 10 and 40 indicate the possibility of
supercells while values over 30 indicate possible multicell storms.
- Paul.


On Thu, 15 Oct 1998 paulmoss at tpgi.com.au wrote:

> lAURIER: Thanx for the info on the upper air diagrams. Excellent stuff. Makes it
> alot clearer now. I will fire off questions as they come to mind and the 1st one
> is: (for anybody to answer!)
> 
> What sort of cape levels do you require for thunderstorms/sever e storms?? Is
> there a general guide?
> 
> Regards, Paul from Taree
> 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 23:50:46 +1000 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: Interesting Address...
Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au
Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Take a look at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/regn/expt/tornado/tornado.html