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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: 14th October 1998 |
X-Sender: jacob at iinet.net.au Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 01:15:29 +0800 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: JacobSubject: Re: aussie-weather: irc weather chat, when and where? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 11:41 PM 13-10-98 +1000, you wrote: >Hi everybody > >>From reading the reports on the South East Queensland storms I noticed >serval people mention a irc chat session, can someone post the details as I >have only just joined the mailing list. > >Nick > This is what I posted to everyone just before you joined the list, hopefully many of you can turn up to the meeting tonight, its great talking weather live, especially as we have a lot of interesting things to talk about with these SE QLD storms that occurred yesterday! Remember, if any one has any problems getting on or has any questions about it, please email me at jacob at iinet.net.au Here it is again: The meeting time is at 9pm EST (7pm WST, 8:30pm CST, 10pm EDT in Tasmania, 11am GMT) on Wednesday nights. We chat on the #Weather channel. If your interested you need to download an irc client, the best irc client is mIRC and you can download that at: http://www.mirc.co.uk/ If you want to know more about IRC and what it is, take a look at: http://www.htmltips.com/patrick/irc.html The best way to get on the #weather channel is to do this: In the status window in mirc, type /server NewBrunswick.NJ.US.Undernet.Org 6665 this then should show that you are connected after a few seconds, after that type /join #weather mIRC setup also has a list of undernet servers that you can use if the NewBrunswick server doesn't work for you, but it usually is the best undernet server. Jacob -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 07:59:44 +1000 (EST) From: Paul Graham To: Aussie Weather Subject: aussie-weather: Bow Echo... Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Yes, one of the cells (perhaps the Brisbane storm?) has a very distinctive and persistent bow echo - probably a supercell - and another also shows a hook consistent with a mesocyclone. Interestingly, most of the cells seem to be moving in the same direction - all supercells? There doesn't seem to be any indication of "splitting" either. Thanks for the radar images Michael. - Paul. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 08:05:17 +1000 (EST) From: Paul Graham To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Atmospheric Stability... Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >From an earlier message Paul G writes: > around 3000m and associated dry air above this inversion - dry air is a > recognised factor in the development of organised severe thunderstorms > since it will aid in evaporative cooling and assist downdraughts while > releasing latent heat. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Not quite... latent heat is released when air parcel rises at SALR - - Paul G. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 08:20:00 +1000 (EST) From: Paul Graham To: Aussie Weather Subject: aussie-weather: Couple of Reports... Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Couple of interesting eyewitness accounts from The Australian online: Mr Boody was dining outside when an airborne table and umbrella tore through the restaurant's canopy. "It was like a tornado," he said. "This whirlwind picked up everything, went across the road took off the roof, turned a truck over and then turned around. Table and chairs went into the creek, plates were flying like someone was playing frisbies. ********************* "All of a sudden it became very, very black," Godfreys store manager Neil Rowlatt said. "Then this wind came, it was like a nightmare. Lightning hit the tree across the road and hit another tree and cut it in half then all the staff were out the back and said, 'We've lost our roof', so we took refuge in the front part of the shop. It was like the movie Twister." -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 11:41:05 +1000 From: Michael Scollay Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: funnel Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Michael Bath wrote: > > >From the news footage just shown in channel 9 in Sydney, it looked like a > tornado affected the Fortitude Valley area. Debris was swirling everywhere > in the shot and there did appear to be a funnel, though not fully condensed > along its column. > Keep a watch on all TV footage of this event. > > Looks like Gympie has just copped a beauty as well from radar just now. > Don't mention Gympie! Back in October, 1986 (I think), my wife-to-be and her friend from the US of A were having "coral trout" dinner in a restaurant. Above and to the rear of this restaurant was a small car park where our car was neatly parked. This storm struck with rain the likes of which I have never seen since. Steps near the kitchen turned into a waterfall. With military precision, the sandbags came out to prevent the flood getting into the restaurant. The cooks ended up sloshing around in knee-deep water still with the oven going cooking our "trout". I kid you not! One of the "workers" noted "there's a car out there with water half-way up it's door". Later that night after a wonderful meal, I found our whose car that was. When entering the car park, I was sure that I left our car was some place other than where it was. I nevertheless opened the door! So much water came out that I expected some fish in it:-) I've heard records of raining fish & frogs. Are there any official accounts? What I've heard put the phenomena down to a waterspout or tornado "sucking" up the partial contents of some water source. Any facts here? Incidently, the car started and dried out OK. Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 12:10:12 +1000 From: Michael Scollay Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: TC Zeb Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Anthony Cornelius wrote: > > Australia uses a different scale to America, but I'm not sure what scale > the Phillipines use, possibly America's "Saffir-Simpson Scale" well, it > wouldn't surprise me anyway! > > The important thing is, is that it is definately a Cat 5 by both scales, > but the Australian scale goes as follows: > > <125km = Cat 1 > 125 - 170km/h = Cat 2 > 170 - 225 km/h = Cat 3 > 225 - 280km/h = Cat 4 > 280km/h = Cat 5 > > Those are maximum wind gusts... > 180kts =approx 330km/h gusts off the top of my head, but you can work it > out exactly if you like - 1kt = 1.852km/h Very humbling TC, this Zeb. Just to put it in context, a fully laden 767 takes off at about 260km/h, smaller airplanes significantly less. A fully laden 370-tonne long-haul 747 is lifting it's nose at about 280km/h. Stay clear of Zeb if you value your life:-( A safe distance to take a look is from GMS-5. Nice pics are usually found at ftp://geo.msfc.nasa.gov/Weather/GMS-5/gif/vis/4km/ which normally provide the background screen on my computer... 2Q's... 1) Is there a natural colour version of a full-Earth image on the 'net? 2) Is there a faster site / mirror of GMS-5 images than the one above? Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: disarm at braenet.com.au X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified) Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 12:38:31 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aussie-weather: sydney storms on sunday ? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com IDF00N00 METROPOLITAN FORECAST BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE Issued at 7:20pm on Wednesday the 14th of October 1998 For Thursday Sydney Metropolitan: Fine. Cool early, then warm afternoon. Mostly sunny. Light morning winds then freshening NW to N winds ahead of cooler fresh southerly winds in the afternoon, followed by cloudy periods. High to very high fire danger. Headline : Fine. Warm then southerly change afternoon. Precis Forecasts and Temperatures: Sydney Fine. S change Min: 14 Max: 28 Liverpool Fine. S change Min: 09 Max: 28 Richmond Fine.S change Min: 8 Max: 28 UV Index: 8 [Very high] reduced to 5 [high ] under cloud Sydney Outlook: Friday Chance morning shower or drizzle. S/SE winds. City Max: 22 Saturday Fine, NW/NE winds. City Max: 26 Sunday Thundery showers likely. NW/N winds City Max: 28 yep look at that line above woulda ya!!! im keeping my fingers crossed, i dont start work till 8pm that night so if this eventuates it would be perfect for me to go up to rooty hill and meet a couple of you. anyway at least the weekend looks somewhat interesting at the moment. and lets pray it stays that way. Matt from sydney. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 12:58:55 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aussie-weather: Re: brissy storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com There does not need to be a condensation funnel for there to be a tornado - so long as rotating winds reach the surface it is a tornado. The footage clearly shows rotation of the debris field extending well above the surface. The damage reports and the radar images indicate a tornado occurred. The time lapse footage of the storm moving in is quite spectacular. Matt - can you *please* update the date on your PC - it makes it very difficult to sort through all the mail. Michael At 01:26 AM 15/03/1998 +1000, you wrote: >just saw the footage on TV. (11pm yeah its late, and i didnt get a chance >to see it all day!) >sky news had gret coverage.. and that tornado.. was it ? looked really >weak.. sort of like a dust devil... >anyway lots of damage.. and the footage ontpp of that building with the >storm moving in.. EXCELLENT!!! >ok ive had my say :) >Matt from sydney. *==========================================================* Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au Australian Severe Weather http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ *==========================================================* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 13:07:24 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aussie-weather: Re: Bow Echo... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Paul - all the cells do move in the same direction up to just before the larger cell moves through Brisbane. From just after 3pm local, the Brisbane storm heads more north of east than the others, and the storms to its west and south head east (instead of ENE). The Brisbane cell is also a lot larger than all the other cells that occurred, although most are long lived. Michael At 07:59 AM 14/10/1998 +1000, you wrote: >Yes, one of the cells (perhaps the Brisbane storm?) has a very distinctive >and persistent bow echo - probably a supercell - and another also shows a >hook consistent with a mesocyclone. Interestingly, most of the cells seem >to be moving in the same direction - all supercells? There doesn't seem >to be any indication of "splitting" either. > >Thanks for the radar images Michael. - Paul. *==========================================================* Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au Australian Severe Weather http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ *==========================================================* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: GOES imagery Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 04:19:33 GMT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id OAA20251 On Tue, 13 Oct 1998 14:09:27 +1000, you wrote: >Thanks for that, Laurier. > >BTW, which browser are you using? I had the same problem accessing that >page with IE4.0 so I changed over to Netscape and it works a treat - now >have 2 browsers up all the time to cope with this. > I was using Netscape Laurier -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: SE QLD Severe T'storms!! Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 04:22:35 GMT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id OAA20259 On Tue, 13 Oct 1998 16:47:06 +1000, you wrote: >Hi all - this is just a quick email, I now have a nice mess in the >dining room to clean after extremely heavy rain, high winds (B10) and >pea - to 2cm sized hail has just smashed through my area!!! I estimate >approx 1 inch in 10mins, and no that is not an exaggeration when you >consider that visibility was 15-20m!!! Even less at times! I'll write >some more info up later, all I know is that we might have to get our >carpets replaced and some light fittings, and that many branches are >down in my area. > >Anthony Cornelius > Hi Anthony Where is your area? And what time did this all happen? Thanks Laurier Williams Australian Weather Links and News http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: disarm at braenet.com.au X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified) Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 16:43:37 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Any storm chasers in or near inner sydney ? Michael and jimmy are about a 40 minute drive from my house here in burwood near strathfield,just wondering if there was anyone a little closer who knows some good look out spots,and who i can go chasing with.. thanks Michael Bath---> ok ive fixed the date.. please let me know if it works/is better. again sorry about that. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Struck Gold!!! Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 04:39:31 GMT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id OAA20951 On Tue, 13 Oct 1998 18:09:09 +1000, Taree Paul wrote: >Ok Paul Graham & Laurier: > >Explain those upper air diagrams for me please! I just had a look at the >brisbane one....all very interesting, but made a little sense! They're a bit cryptic, and it takes a while to explain, so I won't try. However, if you go to my website you'll find I've put up the links to the upper air diagrams, *and* a neat explanation which the Uni of Wyoming has written for them. It may still leave you with some questions, but it's a good start and tailored for the diagrams you're looking at. Laurier Williams Australian Weather Links and News http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 00:42:34 -0400 From: David Hart To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aussie-weather: Re: your mail Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com On Wed, 14 Oct 1998 disarm at braenet.com.au wrote: > Any storm chasers in or near inner sydney ? > Michael and jimmy are about a 40 minute drive from my house here in burwood > near strathfield,just wondering if there was anyone a little closer who > knows some good look out spots,and who i can go chasing with.. > thanks > Michael Bath---> > ok ive fixed the date.. please let me know if it works/is better. > again sorry about that. Hmm, I got this timestamped 16:43:37 +1000UTC at 04:38 UTC or about 2 hours and 5 minutes befor it was sent. Maybe you should check the date/time again ;-) -dkh- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 15:30:46 +1000 From: Michael Scollay Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aussie-weather: Sydney Chasing Request Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com disarm at braenet.com.au wrote: > > Any storm chasers in or near inner sydney ? > Michael and jimmy are about a 40 minute drive from my house here in burwood > near strathfield,just wondering if there was anyone a little closer who > knows some good look out spots,and who i can go chasing with.. > thanks Ummm... Michael Scollay here: My home is in Lindfield (a suburb of greater Sydney now with officially 4 million people) but I'm usually very mobile at weekends with kids in tow to various locations. During most storms, we're fixed indoors, so it might be an opportunity to escape given enough warning:-) There are a few spots in the North Shore and Northern Beaches areas that the dingo genes in me seek out to explore and look out from which would be great for storm watching or getting hit by lightening. One was right in the guts of that Thornleigh "tornado" that hit a few years back. All are within 20 minutes drive from my place - weather permitting:-) As I'm often out in the country (usually mountains to Sydney's West and the Snowy Mountains), can anyone tell me the number to ring to report severe storms? > Michael Bath---> > ok ive fixed the date.. please let me know if it works/is better. > again sorry about that. Your mail is time/date stamped at "Wed, 14 Oct 1998 16:43:37 +1000". That seems to be OK to me. Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 16:07:29 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Bow Echo... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Paul - I was thinking the same thing that perhaps both cells were infact supercells, but in my opinion, it's quite rare to have a severe supercell quite close to another severe cell, let alone two supercells! As supercells generally form where there are no storms, the mesocyclone storm hit Fortitude Valley and Kangaroo Point areas - giving them in my opinion an F1 (F2 possible?) tornado. The bow echo cell was the one that went over myself. Although I don't have as much experience as other people in wx because I am much younger then most - but what do other people think about the possibility of 2 supercells almost side-by-side? Anthony Cornelius Paul Graham wrote: > Yes, one of the cells (perhaps the Brisbane storm?) has a very > distinctive > and persistent bow echo - probably a supercell - and another also > shows a > hook consistent with a mesocyclone. Interestingly, most of the cells > seem > to be moving in the same direction - all supercells? There doesn't > seem > to be any indication of "splitting" either. > > Thanks for the radar images Michael. - Paul. > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 16:14:11 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: SE QLD Severe T'storms!! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Laurier - this actually happened as my bus was going through the suburbs of Carina and Carindale - I live in Belmont, which adjoins both suburbs. Our particular storm struck at around 3:30pm - I didn't look at the time because of the all the excitement! But that's a rough estimate. I'm in the process of writing a report of how the day progressed, what I experienced and the damage that was caused - I'll be sending it to M. Bath for "Storm News" but I also will post it on here. But I don't expect it to be finished until tomorrow night at the earliest. Anthony Cornelius Laurier Williams wrote: > On Tue, 13 Oct 1998 16:47:06 +1000, you wrote: > > >Hi all - this is just a quick email, I now have a nice mess in the > >dining room to clean after extremely heavy rain, high winds (B10) and > > >pea - to 2cm sized hail has just smashed through my area!!! I > estimate > >approx 1 inch in 10mins, and no that is not an exaggeration when you > >consider that visibility was 15-20m!!! Even less at times! I'll > write > >some more info up later, all I know is that we might have to get our > >carpets replaced and some light fittings, and that many branches are > >down in my area. > > > >Anthony Cornelius > > > Hi Anthony > > Where is your area? And what time did this all happen? > > Thanks > > Laurier Williams > Australian Weather Links and News > http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/ > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 16:17:15 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney Chasing Request Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Michael - contact the Sydney Bureau of Meteorology and request to become a storm spotter, they will give you a number in which you can ring up at any time to report a severe storm. Not only that, you get some free info as well, and a cool storm spotters book with a great picture on the front :-) Anthony Cornelius Michael Scollay wrote: > disarm at braenet.com.au wrote: > > > > Any storm chasers in or near inner sydney ? > > Michael and jimmy are about a 40 minute drive from my house here in > burwood > > near strathfield,just wondering if there was anyone a little closer > who > > knows some good look out spots,and who i can go chasing with.. > > thanks > > Ummm... > > Michael Scollay here: My home is in Lindfield (a suburb of greater > Sydney now with officially 4 million people) but I'm usually very > mobile at weekends with kids in tow to various locations. During most > storms, we're fixed indoors, so it might be an opportunity to escape > given enough warning:-) There are a few spots in the North Shore and > Northern Beaches areas that the dingo genes in me seek out to explore > and look out from which would be great for storm watching or getting > hit by lightening. One was right in the guts of that Thornleigh > "tornado" that hit a few years back. All are within 20 minutes drive > from my place - weather permitting:-) > > As I'm often out in the country (usually mountains to Sydney's West > and the Snowy Mountains), can anyone tell me the number to ring to > report severe storms? > > > Michael Bath---> > > ok ive fixed the date.. please let me know if it works/is better. > > again sorry about that. > > Your mail is time/date stamped at "Wed, 14 Oct 1998 16:43:37 +1000". > That seems to be OK to me. > > Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 16:20:32 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: funnel Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com There have been many accounts of where it was rained fish, frogs, acorns - you name it! If you are interested in this - you can purchase the book "Wierd Weather" by Paul Simons - it contains many accounts of wierd weather including raining fish, frogs, plants etc! I purchased it at Dymocks while I was down in Sydney for a few days a few weeks ago, it was the Dymocks store in the city (the 3 level one!) and it cost $16.95. You guys don't know how lucky you are to have a bookstore with its own meteorology section!! Anthony Cornelius Michael Scollay wrote: > Michael Bath wrote: > > > > >From the news footage just shown in channel 9 in Sydney, it looked > like a > > tornado affected the Fortitude Valley area. Debris was swirling > everywhere > > in the shot and there did appear to be a funnel, though not fully > condensed > > along its column. > > Keep a watch on all TV footage of this event. > > > > Looks like Gympie has just copped a beauty as well from radar just > now. > > > Don't mention Gympie! Back in October, 1986 (I think), my wife-to-be > and her friend from the US of A were having "coral trout" dinner in a > restaurant. Above and to the rear of this restaurant was a small car > park where our car was neatly parked. This storm struck with rain the > likes of which I have never seen since. Steps near the kitchen turned > into a waterfall. With military precision, the sandbags came out to > prevent the flood getting into the restaurant. The cooks ended up > sloshing around in knee-deep water still with the oven going cooking > our "trout". I kid you not! One of the "workers" noted "there's a car > out there with water half-way up it's door". Later that night after a > wonderful meal, I found our whose car that was. When entering the car > park, I was sure that I left our car was some place other than where > it was. I nevertheless opened the door! So much water came out that I > expected some fish in it:-) I've heard records of raining fish & > frogs. Are there any official accounts? What I've heard put the > phenomena down to a waterspout or tornado "sucking" up the partial > contents of some water source. Any facts here? Incidently, the car > started and dried out OK. > > Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "dpn" To: Subject: aussie-weather: Thanks Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 17:46:40 +1100 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Just want to say thanks to everyone in keeping us weather starved southerners ( I live in Melbourne ) of the exciting events in SE QLD yesterday. Special thanks to Michael Bath for putting together that Radar loop of the the storms. Didnt get much media coverage down here. Nothing on the 6pm news or in todays Melbourne papers. did see some coverage on the late night news and on Optus vision. That amateaur vision was good definately looked like a weak Tornado the way the debris was flying around and there was some suggestion of a funnel. Nothing much happening down here. Mild and sunny 19c light WNW breeze and bayside sea breezes. We do get storms down here of course but less frequent and generally less severe than in Sydney or Brisbane although we occasionally get a severe storm down here. When anything happens I will let the group know. I am attaching a Ms Excell spreadsheet showing Number of days of thunder heard in Melbourne each month back to June 1972. These are based on my personal observations in Melbournes eastern suburbs. So if anyone is interested and have Ms Excell they can check it out. Dane Newman -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 17:23:20 +1000 From: Michael Scollay Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: funnel & Sydney Chasing - Thanks Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com To those two bits of useful info about contacting the BoM to become a storm informer and about the book at Dymocks concerning "Weird Weather" - Thanks Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 17:51:10 +1000 From: Michael Scollay Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather Subject: aussie-weather: MRF storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I've been comparing BoM's GASP and NCEP's MRF models for ages now and rarely get close agreement on what will happen 5 days out but on this occasion it is worth noting that for 199810190000 UTC and beyond (Mon/Tue next week) a -very- strong cold front will be positioned NW to SE over Eastern Australia with a massive thermal gradient preceeding it fuelled with heaps of warm-moist air. This usually provides excellent storm potential with even greater potential for spectacular cloud photos along the frontal line. Check out the COLA site for vertical velocity and precipitation predictions preceeding the frontal line for this time and watch it develop over the next few days. Judging from past evidence, it looks like this front will be a "southerly buster to remember". Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Blair Trewin Subject: aussie-weather: Impressive diurnal ranges / storm prospects next week To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 18:01:27 +1000 (EST) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 1. Some impressive diurnal ranges in SA today - 28 C at Polda Basin (near Elliston: 33/5), 26 at Yongala (26/0) and Renmark Airport (29/3), and widely over 20. Also some popping up in western NSW and Victoria. 2. I'll back up what Michael has to say about storm prospects next week - the ECMWF and UKMO models also point to a very strong change. Best prospects in NSW and Queensland but I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of action in Victoria as well this time. Blair Trewin Data Management, National Climate Centre/School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 18:28:50 +1000 (EST) From: Paul Graham To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Re: Bow Echo... Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Quite true - although I suspect some of the other storms were supercell type storms too since I noticed several hook/bow echoes on several cells at varying stages. - Paul. On Wed, 14 Oct 1998, Michael Bath wrote: > Paul - all the cells do move in the same direction up to just before the > larger cell moves through Brisbane. From just after 3pm local, the Brisbane > storm heads more north of east than the others, and the storms to its west > and south head east (instead of ENE). The Brisbane cell is also a lot > larger than all the other cells that occurred, although most are long lived. > > Michael > > > At 07:59 AM 14/10/1998 +1000, you wrote: > >Yes, one of the cells (perhaps the Brisbane storm?) has a very distinctive > >and persistent bow echo - probably a supercell - and another also shows a > >hook consistent with a mesocyclone. Interestingly, most of the cells seem > >to be moving in the same direction - all supercells? There doesn't seem > >to be any indication of "splitting" either. > > > >Thanks for the radar images Michael. - Paul. > > *==========================================================* > Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au > Australian Severe Weather > http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ > *==========================================================* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 18:42:20 +1000 (EST) From: Paul Graham To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Bow Echo... Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Quite true: storm spacing can affect the severity depending on how much energy is available. I remember reading about the report from the Bureau of Meteorology on the March, 1990 Hailstorm in Sydney which is believed to have fit the description of high precipitation supercell. PPI Radar scans are shown as part of the report and several cells are detected moving in the same direction as the severe cell which passed over Sydney. The authors suggest that, since supercell type storms have an anomalous movement when compared with short lived single or multi type storms, the other storms that day may also have been severe (they moved through sparsley populated areas). - Paul. On Wed, 14 Oct 1998, Anthony Cornelius wrote: > Paul - I was thinking the same thing that perhaps both cells were infact > supercells, but in my opinion, it's quite rare to have a severe > supercell quite close to another severe cell, let alone two supercells! > As supercells generally form where there are no storms, the mesocyclone > storm hit Fortitude Valley and Kangaroo Point areas - giving them in my > opinion an F1 (F2 possible?) tornado. The bow echo cell was the one > that went over myself. Although I don't have as much experience as > other people in wx because I am much younger then most - but what do > other people think about the possibility of 2 supercells almost > side-by-side? > > Anthony Cornelius > > Paul Graham wrote: > > > Yes, one of the cells (perhaps the Brisbane storm?) has a very > > distinctive > > and persistent bow echo - probably a supercell - and another also > > shows a > > hook consistent with a mesocyclone. Interestingly, most of the cells > > seem > > to be moving in the same direction - all supercells? There doesn't > > seem > > to be any indication of "splitting" either. > > > > Thanks for the radar images Michael. - Paul. > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: funnel Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 08:44:27 GMT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id SAA11671 On Wed, 14 Oct 1998 16:20:32 +1000, Anthony wrote: >There have been many accounts of where it was rained fish, frogs, acorns el snippo >$16.95. You guys don't know how lucky you are to have a bookstore with >its own meteorology section!! > *Does* Dymocks have a meteorology section??????? I haven't been there for years, but I'll be there tomorrow if it does! Last time I asked for their books on meteorology, I was directed to the Astronomy/Astrology section (sic). Laurier Williams Australian Weather Links and News http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 18:55:31 +1000 (EST) From: Paul Graham To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Weather Books.. Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Try one of the University CO-OP bookstores - they may have a book titled: "The Weather and Climate of Australia and New Zealand". This is a textbook (used in the course I did) and quite a good reference for the weather we have here - many other books you find don't cover southern hemisphere weather although it's all much the same I suppose. - Paul. On Wed, 14 Oct 1998, Laurier Williams wrote: > On Wed, 14 Oct 1998 16:20:32 +1000, Anthony wrote: > > >There have been many accounts of where it was rained fish, frogs, acorns > > el snippo > > >$16.95. You guys don't know how lucky you are to have a bookstore with > >its own meteorology section!! > > > *Does* Dymocks have a meteorology section??????? I haven't been there > for years, but I'll be there tomorrow if it does! Last time I asked > for their books on meteorology, I was directed to the > Astronomy/Astrology section (sic). > > Laurier Williams > Australian Weather Links and News > http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/ > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 19:01:12 +1000 (EST) From: Paul Graham To: Aussie Weather Subject: aussie-weather: Warwick Tornado? Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The ABC have reported that the storm through Warwick may have been a tornado: Queensland 'storm' may have been a tornado Wednesday 14 October, 1998 (11:31am AEST) While the clean-up from yesterday's wild storms will continue today across southern Queensland, researchers will try to determine whether a tornado was responsible for the damage in Warwick on the Darling Downs. The Insurance Council of Australia is estimating the damage bill around southern Queensland will run to millions of dollars, with at least $8 million damage to domestic premises. The Bureau of Meteorology says there have been reports of wind gusts reaching 90 kilometres per hour during the height of the storm. Bureau forecaster Manfred Gracius says a tornado is suspected to have blown through the district. "We don't have any direct reports of that as yet but certainly there's some circumstantial evidence," Mr Gracius said. "We'll have to investigate today to see if it fits the damage profiles." -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 19:35:01 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aussie-weather: Brisbane - F2 Tornado? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all - while watching the channel 10 weather news report by Ray Wilke (former regional QLD director of the BoM) he confirmed that there *was* as tornado! Winds were at 193km/h in the tornado - from the pictures I saw, there were indeed houses with entire rooves lifted off completely - indicating possible F2 damage - what is not known is how well constructed these houses were. But 193km/h falls within the *estimated* maximum wind speed of an F2 tornado (180.3km/h is the approximate F1/2 threshhold.) There have been numerous reports of "swirling masses of debris travelling down the street collecting more and more debris." This would be indicative of a tornado - also if you look closely at some of the footage, a condensation funnel can be made out. But it is not surprising that all that was seen was a swirling mass of debris, considering that it was quite likely a HP supercell! But again, the flaw of the F scale is apparent - with the prevalent question "was it just the very strong winds that lifted the roof, or was it just a poorly constructed building?" I've been studying the radar imagery for a while now, and there is no real "hook echo" while the cells were over Warrick. One thing is, is that I believe that BoM should have had many more warnings out - as the Warrick storms hit in the morning and continued in a NE'ly/ENE direction. Certainly severe storms in the morning should send alarm bells ringing to places further along that will have the heat of the day to fuel the storms and possibly become even more severe. But another important note is that when I first saw the radar, I was almost dissappointed, I thought that perhaps they'd look much more impressive. But this raises another point - surely some staff at the BoM should be able to look at the storm structure and tell whether or not it would be severe? And why wasn't the new siren used in the city?? I'm not having a go at BoM - but I believe that hourly warnings were certainly far from sufficient! Our school was only informed about severe storms at 2:55pm by a person listening to a walkman when he shouldn't have been! - the storm hit at school at around 3:15-3:20pm. I heard many people recieved bruises from hail, not only from people stranded at my school, but from schools all around Brisbane. Had warnings been put in place earlier, arrangements for early dismissal could have occurred (this has happened previously at our school where students who walked/rode their bike or had to walk a long distance for transport were let out 15mins early to avoid the storm) With the number of severe CG's- and branches down, it is a miracle that no one was severely injured!!! Well - I've had my little say! Anthony Cornelius -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 20:13:27 +1000 From: Greg Browning To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aussie-weather: Boring Melbourne Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com With regard to Michael Thompson's claim of Wollongong as "top storm-bypass city " in the east, I have to concur with fellow Melbournian, Jane, that Melb. has much stronger claims to this title. One could go totally insane trying to hook up with a decent storm in Melb.. In my 28 odd years of living in Melb (I'm 31 now) I could easily count on one hand the number of memorable storms. I have a vague recollection of a ripper storm on Cup Day, 1976,( 02/11/76?), but nothing that good since. I did,however, miss out on what was described to me, by my brother, as a "bloody ripper" of a storm (in the SE suburbs where I was living at the time) in January of this year, because I happened to be in Sydney at the time (where it was fine & sunny & not-at-all exciting). I was nearly severely traumatised by this unfortunate turn of events, as I knew this would probably mean I'd have to wait another 5 years for the next good storm (...it becomes obvious why I'm heading to Darwin in a month's time- in 2 weeks in the Top End I expect I'll see more good storms than I have in the last 2 decades in Melb.) But, beyond my subjective grumblings, objective data shows Port Kembla (near W'gong ) has 29 thunder days/year, while Melb. has 14. It was great then to get caught up in all the enthusiasm of the SE Qld, and environs, storm-chasers in the wake of your severe weather up there- at least I can dream that I was there. Thanks to all the Q'landers et al. who peppered cyberspace with the deluge of e-mails (the more the better)! Regards, Greg Browning PS. Here's hoping that Sun/Mon upcoming might produce something good- what do you think, Jane? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 20:49:55 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aussie-weather: archive of auusie-weather mail Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have established an archive of all mail posted to aussie-weather since the 15th September. I was looking through my aussie weather mailbox and was surprised to see that there had been so many messages and the file was already over 600Kb. If, like me, you like to keep a record of past mail, you can can check out the digest files from here: http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/storm_news/aussiewx.htm The links are towards the bottom of the page. I will add new files for each day that mail appears on the list, but it wont be updated each day. Michael *==========================================================* Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au Australian Severe Weather http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ *==========================================================* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: RE: aussie-weather: archive of auusie-weather mail Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 21:20:01 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.2106.4 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Michael, YOU ARE AN ABSOLUTE GEM!!!!! :) - I was wondering what I would do about my disk space if we maintain this wonderful level of enthusiasm . BTW Greg, I think you could be spot on. I just had a look at the MRF's and the Meteogram - my goodness - I might even start getting excited - Mt Dandenong looks like it might be a good spot for a picnic on Sunday!!! http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/observations/metgram.htm Jane Melbourne >-----Original Message----- >From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com >[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Michael Bath >Sent: Wednesday, 14 October 1998 8:50 >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: aussie-weather: archive of auusie-weather mail > > >I have established an archive of all mail posted to aussie-weather since >the 15th September. > >I was looking through my aussie weather mailbox and was surprised to see >that there had been so many messages and the file was already over 600Kb. >If, like me, you like to keep a record of past mail, you can can check out >the digest files from here: >http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/storm_news/aussiewx.htm > >The links are towards the bottom of the page. I will add new files for each >day that mail appears on the list, but it wont be updated each day. > >Michael > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aussie-weather: MRF storms Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 22:07:46 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have been watching this one as well, if things pan out like I hope I will get to chase in my area Sunday-Tuesday, then follow the system up to the north coast Tuesday - Wednesday. Michael -----Original Message----- From: Michael Scollay To: Aussie Weather Date: Wednesday, 14 October 1998 17:52 Subject: aussie-weather: MRF storms >I've been comparing BoM's GASP and NCEP's MRF models for ages now and >rarely get close agreement on what will happen 5 days out but on this >occasion it is worth noting that for 199810190000 UTC and beyond >(Mon/Tue next week) a -very- strong cold front will be positioned NW >to SE over Eastern Australia with a massive thermal gradient >preceeding it fuelled with heaps of warm-moist air. This usually >provides excellent storm potential with even greater potential for >spectacular cloud photos along the frontal line. > >Check out the COLA site for vertical velocity and precipitation >predictions preceeding the frontal line for this time and watch it >develop over the next few days. Judging from past evidence, it looks >like this front will be a "southerly buster to remember". > >Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Boring Melbourne Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 22:15:21 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com It's true, we get close to 30 thunder days, but I'm greedy. Many of our thunder days are just decaying anvils that have drifted east from over the escarpment. I have been watching the models closely for next week, with luck we may all share storms from a strong cold front, I hope to chase this system into Queensland. Michael -----Original Message----- From: Greg Browning To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Wednesday, 14 October 1998 20:15 Subject: aussie-weather: Boring Melbourne >With regard to Michael Thompson's claim of Wollongong as "top >storm-bypass city " in the east, I have to concur with fellow >Melbournian, Jane, that Melb. has much stronger claims to this title. >One could go totally insane trying to hook up with a decent storm in >Melb.. In my 28 odd years of living in Melb (I'm 31 now) I could easily >count on one hand the number of memorable storms. I have a vague >recollection of a ripper storm on Cup Day, 1976,( 02/11/76?), but >nothing that good since. I did,however, miss out on what was described >to me, by my brother, as a "bloody ripper" of a storm (in the SE >suburbs where I was living at the time) in January of this year, because >I happened to be in Sydney at the time (where it was fine & sunny & >not-at-all exciting). I was nearly severely traumatised by this >unfortunate turn of events, as I knew this would probably mean I'd have >to wait another 5 years for the next good storm (...it becomes obvious >why I'm heading to Darwin in a month's time- in 2 weeks in the Top End I >expect I'll see more good storms than I have in the last 2 decades in >Melb.) But, beyond my subjective grumblings, objective data shows Port >Kembla (near W'gong ) has 29 thunder days/year, while Melb. has 14. > >It was great then to get caught up in all the enthusiasm of the SE Qld, >and environs, storm-chasers in the wake of your severe weather up there- >at least I can dream that I was there. Thanks to all the Q'landers et >al. who peppered cyberspace with the deluge of e-mails (the more the >better)! > >Regards, > Greg Browning > >PS. Here's hoping that Sun/Mon upcoming might produce something good- >what do you think, Jane? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Subject: aussie-weather: Storm discussion Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 23:46:57 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I was overwhelmed with the discussion on the brissy storms. I had not signed on for 2 days and I must have had 30 to 50 e-mails. Keep it up. I thought the storm was a supercell even from the satpic. That was one long anvil. Jimmy ---------------------------------------------------------- Australian Severe Weather http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/index.html -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Storm discussion Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 23:59:16 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I reply to myself here at midnight. I was at TAFE yesterday during the Brissy Storms. I was so p....... off nobody dared to even talk to me. We were up there in the last two weeks and nothing really much happened. The so-called storm chaser curse. Jimmy Deguara -----Original Message----- From: Jimmy Deguara To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Wednesday, October 14, 1998 11:51 PM Subject: aussie-weather: Storm discussion >I was overwhelmed with the discussion on the brissy storms. I had not signed >on for 2 days and I must have had 30 to 50 e-mails. Keep it up. I thought >the storm was a supercell even from the satpic. That was one long anvil. > >Jimmy >---------------------------------------------------------- >Australian Severe Weather >http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/index.html >
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Updated: 20th October, 1998 |
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