Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone ROSIE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]

WTXS21 PGTW 20080421 05:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1S 100.0E TO 10.9S 104.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 210000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2S 100.3E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 9.2S 100.3E, APPROXIMATELY
265NM NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
210010Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). STRONG SURFACE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE
ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY. THE DISTURBANCE LIES
UNDER A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL ORGAN-
IZATION AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 220530Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080421 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210521Z APR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 103.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 103.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 10.6S 105.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 11.2S 105.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 11.9S 105.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 12.6S 105.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 104.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IM-
AGERY AND A 211833Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAP-
PING INTO THE CENTER, WHICH IS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND IS DISPLACED
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE BANDING. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE TRMM MICROWAVE 85 AND 37 GHZ IMAGES.
TC 28S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH IMPROVED ORGAN-
IZATION WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES INCREASING TO 35 (KNES) TO 45 (PGTW)
KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF THESE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A STRONG SHEAR GRADIENT SOUTH OF 13S WHICH
SHOULD INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 28S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TRACK SOUTHWARD.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210521Z
APR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210530)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080422 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 11.3S 105.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 105.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 12.5S 106.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 13.7S 106.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 14.6S 106.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 105.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (ROSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 815 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IM-
AGERY AND A 212354Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAP-
PING INTO THE CENTER WHICH IS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND IS DISPLACED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE BANDING. TC 28S HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION YIELDING A DVORAK EST-
IMATE OF 45 KNOTS (PGTW) WHICH FORMS THE BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. TC 28S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AS THE STEERING
RIDGE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080422 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 105.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 105.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 12.0S 106.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 13.3S 106.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 106.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (ROSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 28S WAS RELOCATED ABOUT 100 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 22/18Z POSITION BASED ON SEVERAL MICROWAVE
IMAGES DEPICTING A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHRISTMAS ISLAND INDICATING THAT THE
LLCC PASSED 15 NM SOUTH NEAR 12Z WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 996 MB AND
PEAK SUSTAINED NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON A 221737Z
TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A CLEAR LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
BASED ON THE RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION, THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER ESTIMATES FROM APRF AND KNES DUE TO
THE CHRISTMAS ISLAND OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THE RELATIVELY WEAK
BANDING EVIDENT IN THE TRMM IMAGES. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY AND TC 28S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY BY TAU 24 DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080423 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 11.5S 106.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 106.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 13.0S 107.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 14.9S 107.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 106.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (ROSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPEC SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SUS-
TAINED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS WHICH LENDS CREDIBILITY TO THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES.  THESE ESTIMATES COUPLED WITH UN-
FLAGGED SCATTEROMETRY WIND OBSERVATIONS OF 35 KNOTS FORM THE BASIS OF
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK
PHILOSOPHY AND TC 28S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WEAKENING WITH SLOW DISSIPATION
OCCURRING BY TAU 24 DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  29S (DURGA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080423 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNING NR 005
   1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 12.8S 106.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 106.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 14.4S 106.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 16.3S 106.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 106.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (ROSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 231413Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND A 231413 ASCAT IMAGE. TC 28S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHWARD, THE STORM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNING
AT 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (DURGA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080424 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNING NR 006    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 106.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 106.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 17.5S 105.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 106.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (ROSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM 
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS DISSIPATED BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST, WHICH WILL KEEP THE CIRCULATION UNDER HIGH SHEAR AND MOVE
IT OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS
10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (DURGA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//