[Index]
Tropical Cyclone KAMBA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone KAMBA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080307 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 89.1E TO 12.6S 84.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 070130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 88.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
90.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CON-
VECTION BUILDING TO THE WEST OF AN INCREASINGLY CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS CONFIRMED BY SCATTER-
OMETRY OBSERVATIONS WHICH SHOW 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS IN
A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DE-
CREASE OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING AN AMPLE OUTFLOW CHANNEL
FOR THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, IMPROVING
CONVECTION AND MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080200Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080307 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070200Z FEB 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 11.9S 87.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 87.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.0S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.4S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.0S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.9S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 910 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE AFTER THIS
TIME AND THE STORM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY MORE STEADILY.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC
AIDS THAT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 070200Z FEB 08 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 070200) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080308 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 87.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 87.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.9S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.6S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.6S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.9S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 86.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS THAT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST INTENSITIES
ARE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 080000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080308 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 86.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 86.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.5S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.7S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.1S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.9S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 86.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES
OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND UNFAVORABLE, INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AXIS OF A SYNTOPIC-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080309 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.0S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.4S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.1S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.0S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 83.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
TC 23S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE STORM. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM
HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
UNDER IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL
AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080309 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 82.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 82.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.1S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.2S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.7S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.5S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 81.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM.
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES INDI-
CATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
IN RESPONSE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS SLOW INTENSIFICATION
TREND THROUGH TAU 24 AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE BUT
ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES. THERAFTER, THE STORM WILL
ENCOUNTER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. AS TC 23S CONTINUES POLEWARD TOWARD THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER, THE FIRST STAGE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN BY TAU 48. THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080310 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.0S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.2S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.4S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 78.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS
REPORTING AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SIGN-
IFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 23S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY TILL TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STORM.
AS TC 23S CONTINUES POLEWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER, THE FIRST STAGE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN BY TAU 48. THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL
AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080310 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 007
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 78.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.5S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.9S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.0S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.7S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 78.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING
AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED A SIGNIFICANT INTEN-
SIFICATION TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUT-
FLOW. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR WEAKEN
ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST INTRODUCES INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, AND SUPPRESSED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL DRIVE STEADIER
WEAKENING. BY TAU 48, INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATI-
TUDE TROUGH AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL INDUCE THE FIRST
STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE
TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. THE TAU 24 THROUGH TAU 48
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TO
REFLECT A MORE PROBABLE WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 01200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080311 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 78.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 78.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.6S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.3S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 28.2S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 30.3S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 78.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING
AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED A WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS
FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NEAR TAU 36, INTERACTION WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER WILL INDUCE THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WAR-
NINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080311 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 23.1S 78.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 78.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.2S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.4S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 29.5S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 31.3S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 78.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 995 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCUL-
ATION CENTER DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. AN 110849Z
TRMM IMAGE SHOWED THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND SUPPORTED THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. TC 23S
IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER COOLER SST (25-26C) AND VERY LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-
WARD INTO A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WILL INTERACT
WEAKLY WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH TAU 36. TC 23S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER WATER PRIOR
TO COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z AND 121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARN-
INGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080312 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 79.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 79.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.6S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 30.1S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 79.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1140 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS CRESTED THE AXIS OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO COOLER
WATER AND COMES UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE WEST. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 23S IS NOW DETACHED
FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE COMPLETING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UP-
|
Document: kamba.htm
Updated: 13th March 2008 |
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