[Index]
Tropical Cyclone ELNUS
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone ELNUS [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20071230 17:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 220 NM RADIUS OF 18.3S 41.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 41.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7S
42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301107Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED
CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 301459Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS BEING AIDED BY
AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC AND THE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
311730Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071231 15:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301721Z DEC 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 41.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 41.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.4S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.0S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.6S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.4S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 41.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED TO A SIGNIFICANT TC DUE TO FAVORABLE
SST AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WHICH HAS PROVIDED GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE STORM IS CAUGHT IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN
TWO ANTICYCLONES TO THE WEST AND EAST. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
WEST OF TC 09S TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE OF TC 09S. THE GRADUAL TRANSITION WILL CAUSE A
SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REL-
ATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT POLEWARD WILL KEEP THE STORM OVER WATERS WITH
FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS COUPLED WITH CONTINUED POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL, DYNAMICAL AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE HISTORICAL TRENDS OF THE REGION AND THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THIS STORM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ERRATIC MOVE-
MENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
301721Z DEC 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
301730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
08S (MELANIE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING AND GRAMMAR IN
THE REMARKS SECTION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080101 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 19.0S 41.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 41.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.4S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.0S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.7S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.6S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 40.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 312202Z TRMM 37H IMAGE DEP-
ICTED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING AND IMPROVED SBC
WITH A CLEAR CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER SOUTH AFRICA. TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIR-
ONMENT WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM PROVIDING THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THEREFORE, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT 10 KNOTS PER DAY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND
020300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) FINAL
WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080101 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 40.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 40.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.3S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.8S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.6S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.4S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 40.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 011057Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND SHOWS THE LLCC OFFSET TO THE NORTH-
WEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. TC 09S REMAINS LOCATED WITHIN A
RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE. THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. TC 09S WILL REMAIN IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY OVER THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080102 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 40.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 40.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.6S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.4S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.2S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.9S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 40.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON INFRA-
RED IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 012319Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
WEAK, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED
NORTHWEST OF CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE LLCC REMAINED DIFFICULT TO LO-
CATE, THEREFORE, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN POSITIONING AND MOTION AND
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. TC 09S IS LOCATED
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST REMAINING THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND
TC 09S SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
THIS FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KNOTS AFTER TAU 24.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAMPER SIGNIF-
CANT CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080102 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 20.5S 40.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 40.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.2S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.2S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.0S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OU
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.7S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 40.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A WEAK, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE
LLCC REMAINED DIFFICULT TO LOCATE CAUSING UNCERTAINTY IN POSITIONING
AND MOTION AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. TC 09S
IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST REMAINING THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT
AND TC 09S SHOULD SLIGHTLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KNOTS AFTER TAU 24. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAMPER SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION AND
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080103 03:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 006
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 40.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 40.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.1S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.9S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.7S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.4S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 40.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS FAIRLY IN TACT DESPITE A TEMPORARY WEAKENING
TREND. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE. RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY CONFIRMS HIGH SHEAR VALUES AS CON-
VECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 021929Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS
THE LLCC WITH WEAKER WINDS AT THE CORE AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER (35 KTS). THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY AN EQUATORWARD
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR. THE STORM WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TAU 24, AND WILL CONTINUED TO BE STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 24, THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT, LOWERING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
VALUES AND ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND
040300Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SENTENCE STRUCTURE
IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080103 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 23.3S 41.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 41.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.7S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.9S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.0S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 42.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED
AS A COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED OVER IT SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS ALSO CAUSED THE STORM TO TRANSITION TO A SHALLOW
WARM CORE SYSTEM, OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH-
EAST. THE INITIAL WARNING INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED A 020646Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATING 35 KNOTS OF WIND NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD BY AN EQUATORWARD EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU
24 AS IT DISSIPATES OVER WATER. THE DISSIPATION WILL BE CAUSED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW HINDERING OUTFLOW AND TRACK WATERS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z AND 041500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080104 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 008
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 42.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 42.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.5S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 42.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A DIS-
ORGANIZED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 031451Z QUIK-
SCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KNOTS AT THE CORE WITH HIGHER WINDS INDUCED BY
GRADIENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SYSTEM PRODUCING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO DISSIPATE. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS TO REINTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
10S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
|
Document: elnus.htm
Updated: 5th January 2008 |
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