[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary June 2008
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
| Tropical
Cyclones
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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary June 2008 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
JUNE, 2008
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
*************************************************************************
JUNE HIGHLIGHTS
--> Typhoon causes great loss of life in Philippines
*************************************************************************
WIKIPEDIA TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS
Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all
tropical cyclones may be found at the following links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_hurricane_season>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_typhoon_season>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_North_Indian_cyclone_season>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007-08_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season>
For some storms more detailed reports have been prepared. In those cases
I will include the specific links in the reports for the applicable
tropical cyclones.
*************************************************************************
!!!!!!!!!! EXTRA FEATURE !!!!!!!!!!
A REVIEW OF THE 2007 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON
FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
Following is a tabular summary of all the tropical depressions,
tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons which occurred in the
Northern Hemisphere between 1 January and 31 December 2007, as
reported in the Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summaries prepared
by the author.
(1) Number - this is the sequential cyclone number assigned by either
TPC/NHC, CPHC in Honolulu, or JTWC. If neither of these
agencies issued any warnings, no number will be given.
(2) Name - the name (if any) assigned by either TPC/NHC, CPHC, IMD,
or JMA (and PAGASA for Western North Pacific systems in
their area of warning responsibility).
(3) Dates - range of dates for which tracking information for the
cyclone is available in the Global Tropical Cyclone
Tracks files prepared by the author.
(4) Pressure - Lowest central pressure (either estimated or recorded)
during the lifetime of the cyclone. For Atlantic and
Northeastern Pacific systems these will be the values
reported in operational advisories from TPC/NHC or
CPHC. For Northwest Pacific systems the central
pressure estimates are taken from advisories issued by
the Japanese Meteorological Agency. An asterisk (*)
following the pressure indicates the reading was an
actual measured pressure normally obtained by a drop-
sonde released during an aerial reconnaissance
flight. Central pressure is given in millibars,
which is numerically equivalent to hectopascals.
(5) MSW - maximum 1-minute average sustained windspeed in knots.
For the Northwestern Pacific and North Indian Ocean
basins, these will be the highest value assigned
operationally by JTWC. For the Atlantic and Northeastern
Pacific basins, the MSW values are taken from the
official tropical cyclone reports prepared by the
TPC/NHC Hurricane Specialists and which are available
on TPC/NHC's website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>.
(6) Basins - tropical cyclone basins where the cyclone tracked during
its life:
ATL - North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea
NEP - North Pacific east of Longitude 180
NWP - North Pacific west of Longitude 180
(including South China Sea)
NIO - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
For tropical systems in the NWP basin, two additional columns of
information are given:
(1) The tropical storm serial number assigned by the Japanese
Meteorological Agency to tropical depressions which are deemed
to have reached tropical storm intensity. This does not always
agree with JTWC's assessment.
(2) An estimate of the maximum 10-minute average sustained wind.
The value given represents the highest 10-min avg MSW assigned
by any agency. If from any warning center other than JMA, a
numbered note below identifies which center's value is given.
A number in parentheses (e.g. (1) ) following an entry refers to
a note following the entries for the given basin. A separate table
is given for each of the four Northern Hemisphere basins.
*************************************************************************
ATLANTIC BASIN
NUM NAME DATES CENT PRS MSW BASIN
(mb) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
01 Andrea 06-14 May 1001 50 ATL (1)
02 Barry 01-05 Jun 997 * 50 ATL
03 Chantal 30 Jul-04 Aug 994 45 ATL
04 Dean 13-23 Aug 906 * 150 ATL
05 Erin 15-19 Aug 995 50 ATL (2)
06 Felix 31 Aug-05 Sep 930 * 150 ATL
07 Gabrielle 04-12 Sep 1004 * 50 ATL (4)
08 Ingrid 12-18 Sep 1002 40 ATL
09 Humberto 12-14 Sep 985 * 80 ATL
10 ----- 18-22 Sep 1005 * 30 ATL
11 Jerry 20-25 Sep 1003 35 ATL (4)
12 Karen 25-30 Sep 988 65 ATL (3)
13 Lorenzo 25-28 Sep 990 * 70 ATL
14 Melissa 23 Sep-02 Oct 1005 35 ATL
15 ----- 11-13 Oct 1011 30 ATL
16 Noel 28 Oct-05 Nov 980 * 70 ATL (5)
17 Olga 10-16 Dec 1003 50 ATL (4)
-- ----- 26 Dec-02 Jan 1004 45 ATL (6)
NOTES:
(1) System was a subtropical storm which never acquired full tropical
characteristics. The max winds/min pressure given above are for
the subtropical portion of its life only. The parent extratropical
cyclone from which Andrea evolved produced winds exceeding hurricane
force.
(2) The peak winds during the lifetime of Tropical Storm Erin occurred
during a brief and very surprising intensification episode over
Oklahoma hundreds of miles inland and three days after landfall on
the Texas coast. NHC has officially not classified this phase of
Erin's life as a tropical storm, but there are some meteorologists
who disagree with this assessment.
(3) Upgraded to a hurricane during post-storm analysis.
(4) System was initially named as a subtropical storm but made the
transition into a tropical cyclone.
(5) Winds reached 75 kts after Noel had become, or at least was in the
process of becoming, an extratropical cyclone.
(6) System was a non-tropical LOW south of the Azores that developed
organized convection. It looked best on 29 December when satellite
intensity estimates were 35-40 kts, and may have been a subtropical
storm that day before merging with a front and weakening on the 30th.
(Comments from Jack Beven.) Drifting buoy 62901 reported a pressure
of 1004.6 mb at 31/0000 UTC very near the low-level center, and an
ASCAT pass around the same time revealed a few 45-kt wind vectors
near the swath edge in the northwestern semicircle, where the
pressure gradient would be tightest due to high pressure centered
to the northwest.
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACFICIC BASIN
NUM NAME DATES CENT PRS MSW BASIN
(mb) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
01E Alvin 27-31 May 1003 35 NEP
02E Barbara 29 May-02 Jun 1000 45 NEP
03E ----- 11-13 Jun 1004 30 NEP
04E ----- 09-11 Jul 1006 30 NEP
05E ----- 14-16 Jul 1006 30 NEP
06E Cosme 14-23 Jul 987 65 NEP
07E Dalila 22-27 Jul 995 50 NEP
08E Erick 31 Jul-02 Aug 1004 35 NEP
09E Flossie 08-16 Aug 949 120 NEP
10E Gil 29 Aug-02 Sep 1001 40 NEP
11E Henriette 30 Aug-06 Sep 972 75 NEP
12E Ivo 18-24 Sep 984 70 NEP
13E ----- 19-20 Sep 1007 30 NEP
14E Juliette 29 Sep-02 Oct 997 50 NEP
15E Kiko 15-25 Oct 991 60 NEP
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACFICIC BASIN
JTWC NAME(S) JMA DATES CENT MSW MSW BASIN
NUM TROP STM PRS 1-MIN 10-MIN
NUM (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
01W Kong-rey 0701 31 Mar-07 Apr 960 90 75 NWP
02W Yutu/Amang 0702 15-25 May 935 125 95 NWP
03W Toraji 0703 03-06 Jul 996 35 35 NWP
04W Man-yi/Bebeng 0704 07-20 Jul 930 130 95 NWP (1)
05W Usagi 0705 27 Jul-07 Aug 945 120 90 NWP
06W ----- ---- 02-07 Aug 994 35 30 NWP
07W Pabuk/Chedeng 0706 04-14 Aug 975 65 65 NWP
08W Wutip/Dodong 0707 06-09 Aug 990 40 40 NWP
--- ----- ---- 10-12 Aug 992 -- 30 NWP (2)
09W Sepat/Egay 0708 11-22 Aug 910 140 110 NWP
--- ----- ---- 14-15 Aug 1002 -- 30 NWP (2)
--- ----- ---- 21-25 Aug 1004 -- 30 NWP (2)
10W Fitow 0709 26 Aug-09 Sep 970 85 65 NWP (3)
11W Danas 0710 06-17 Sep 994 60 50 NWP
--- ----- ---- 09-14 Sep 1000 -- 30 NWP (2)
12W Nari/Falcon 0711 11-18 Sep 940 120 95 NWP
13W Wipha/Goring 0712 15-21 Sep 930 135 100 NWP
14W ----- ---- 19-21 Sep 1006 30 25 NWP
15W Francisco 0713 21-26 Sep 990 45 45 NWP
16W Lekima/Hanna 0714 27 Sep-04 Oct 975 70 60 NWP (4)
17W Krosa/Ineng 0715 01-09 Oct 925 130 105 NWP
--- Haiyan 0716 30 Sep-07 Oct 998 65 35 NWP (5)
--- Podul 0717 03-09 Oct 990 55 35 NWP (6)
18W Lingling 0718 09-19 Oct 994 45 45 NWP (7)
19W Kajiki 0719 18-25 Oct 945 110 90 NWP (8)
20W Faxai/Juaning 0720 24-31 Oct 980 40 55 NWP
21W Peipah/Kabayan 0721 02-10 Nov 970 75 70 NWP
22W Tapah 0722 10-13 Nov 996 35 35 NWP
23W Hagibis/Lando 0724 18-28 Nov 970 85 70 NWP
24W Mitag/Mina 0723 20-27 Nov 955 95 80 NWP (9)
25W ----- ---- 26-27 Nov --- 25 -- MWP (10)
26W ----- ---- 28-29 Nov --- 35 -- NWP (11)
NOTES:
(1) Dr. Karl Hoarau performed his own analysis of Typhoon Man-yi and
does not believe that it reached 130 kts, but rather peaked at
125 kts (1-min avg).
(2) Classified as a tropical depression by JMA only.
(3) The times of JTWC's and JMA's respective peak intensities do not
coincide. When JMA was estimating 65 kts (10-min avg), JTWC's peak
MSW was 80 kts (1-min avg). At the time of JTWC's peak 1-min avg
MSW of 85 kts, JMA's 10-min avg MSW was 60 kts.
(4) This system was classified as Tropical Storm Hanna well before it was
officially named Lekima by JMA, by which time it had moved westward
out of PAGASA's AOR.
(5) No warnings were issued on TS Haiyan by JTWC. The 1-min avg MSW
estimates were sent to the author by Dr. Karl Hoarau.
(6) No warnings were issued on TS Podul by JTWC. The 1-min avg MSW
estimates were sent to the author by Dr. Karl Hoarau.
(7) The peak 1-min avg MSW of 45 kts was estimated by Dr. Karl Hoarau
during a time prior to warnings being issued on this system by any
agency. The peak operational 1-min avg MSW assigned by JTWC was
35 kts, concurrent with the peak 10-min avg of 45 kts assigned by
JMA.
(8) Dr. Karl Hoarau performed a Dvorak analysis of TY Kajiki and estimates
the peak 1-min avg MSW at 125 kts.
(9) The times of JTWC's and JMA's respective peak intensities do not
coincide. When JMA was estimating 80 kts (10-min avg), JTWC's peak
MSW was 90 kts (1-min avg). At the time of JTWC's peak 1-min avg
MSW of 95 kts, JMA's 10-min avg MSW was 75 kts.
(10) While JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW was only 25 kts, several SAB
satellite fix bulletins rated the system at T2.0/2.0, suggesting
that the depression produced 30-kt winds at some point. JMA never
referenced this system in their High Seas bulletins, even as a
low-pressure area. According to Dr. Karl Hoarau, microwave imagery
clearly indicated the presence of a LLCC.
(11) JTWC issued only two warnings on this system, and the highest MSW
was only 25 kts. Rather unusual, given that the translational speed
was 29 kts! Dr. Karl Hoarau estimates that the MSW peaked at 35 kts,
and I included that value in the track I prepared. The Dvorak
estimates from JTWC's own satellite analyst reached T2.5/2.5 for
several hours, and one SAB rating reached T3.0/3.0. There was ample
evidence from satellite imagery, plus the rapid forward motion, to
believe that this system was a tropical storm. JMA never elevated
the system above weak depression status.
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN BASIN
NUM NAME DATES CENT PRS MSW BASIN
(mb) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
01B Akash 12-15 May --- 65 NIO
02A Gonu 01-07 Jun 920 140 NIO
03B Yemyin 21-27 Jun --- 50 NIO (1)
04B ----- 27 Jun-01 Jul --- 45 NIO
--- ----- 05-06 Aug --- 30 NIO
05A ----- 27 Oct-04 Nov --- 45 NIO
--- ----- 26-28 Oct --- 30 NIO
06B Sidr 10-16 Nov --- 135 NIO (2)
NOTES:
(1) This system was not officially named operationally by IMD, who has
official naming responsibility for the NIO basin. However, the
Pakistani Meteorological Service unofficially named the storm Yemyin
and this name was given wide dissemination by the press. Later, IMD
re-analyzed the system to have been of cyclone intensity and made
the decision to officially let the name Yemyin stand. The highest
MSW assigned to Yemyin by JTWC was 50 kts, but based on most Dvorak
intensity estimates, microwave imagery, and at least one SLP
observation a few hours after landfall, the storm was likely of
hurricane intensity when it made landfall in Pakistan.
(2) Dr. Karl Hoarau believes that Sidr peaked at 140 kts.
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for June: No tropical cyclones
Atlantic Tropical Activity for June
-----------------------------------
Other than the presence of Tropical Storm Arthur inland over the
southern Yucatan Peninsula at the beginning of the month, no tropical
cyclones operated in Atlantic waters during June. During the latter
week of the month, and very curious feature was observed in equatorial
regions of the eastern Atlantic: a small vortex with a clockwise
rotation north (barely) of the equator! Some images of this feature
may be found at the following URL:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/675>
According to Scott Bachmeier, the imagery seems to suggest that the
source of the vortex may have been an area of convection over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, centered around 1.5S/28.0W on 24 June. This
convection produced an outflow boundary, which could be seen propagating
northwestward on the 24/1145 and 24/1445 UTC visible images. The vortex
first becomes apparent in the visible image at 1745 UTC, located some
distance behind the aforementioned outflow boundary. The vortex then
becomes difficult to follow, until it is again obvious on the 1145 UTC
visible image on 26 June (located near 0.5N/33.5W). From that time, the
feature is more easily tracked using the 30-min interval images at the
above link.
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for June: 1 tropical storm
1 hurricane
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories,
forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have
been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to
sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
noted.
HURRICANE BORIS
(TC-02E)
27 June - 4 July
------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Boris developed from an area of low pressure
associated with an easterly wave which had departed the coast of West
Africa on 15 June. The system moved across the tropical North Atlantic
as a high-amplitude disturbance, crossing into the Northeast Pacific
basin on 23 June. Convection slowly became organized during the next
few days as the wave continued moving slowly westward. The system
developed into Tropical Depression 02E early on 27 June while located
about 495 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Later the same
day, TD-02E strengthened into Tropical Storm Boris. Boris moved
generally westward during the next two days with little change in
intensity. On the 29th the cyclone strengthened to 60 kts with a
ragged eye apparent for several hours. Boris maintained near-hurricane
strength on 30 June and became the Eastern Pacific's first hurricane
of the 2008 season at 0600 UTC on 1 July while located approximately
990 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Boris
never intensified above minimal hurricane strength and soon began to
weaken due to the effects of cooler SSTs. The hurricane was downgraded
to a tropical storm at 02/1800 UTC, and further weakened to a tropical
depression on the 3rd. Boris' remnants degenerated into a remnant LOW
on 4 July located about 1235 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of
Baja California.
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Hurricane
Boris.
(Report written by Gary Padgett, based upon monthly summary for June
prepared by staff of TPC/NHC)
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA
(TC-03E)
27 June - 1 July
-------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Cristina's origins lay in a tropical wave which crossed
Central America on 21 June and moved into the Northeast Pacific basin
on the 22nd. For the next few days an area of showers and thunderstorms
associated with the wave moved westward within the ITCZ with little
change in organization. By 26 June the cloud pattern associated with the
system began to increase in organization, and Tropical Depression 03E
formed on the 27th about 915 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California. TD-03E initially moved west-northwestward and strengthened
into a tropical storm on 28 June while turning toward the west. Cristina
reached a peak intensity of 45 kts early on the 29th, but weakened into
a tropical depression the next day. By early on 1 July the former
tropical cyclone was a dissipating remnant LOW--the final TPC/NHC
advisory placed the center near 14.1N/133.2W at 0300 UTC on 1 July.
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
Storm Cristina.
(Report written by Gary Padgett, based upon monthly summary for June
prepared by staff of TPC/NHC)
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for June: 1 typhoon
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
unless otherwise noted.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). A very special thanks to Michael for the
assistance he so reliably provides.
In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
area of warning responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for June
--------------------------------------------
As the month of June opened, Typhoon Nakri/Enteng was still stirring
waters south of Japan. Nakri had peaked at 125 kts (105 kts per JMA)
on 29 May and had subsequently weakened to minimal typhoon strength,
but re-intensified to 80 kts on 2 June. However, this second flowering
was short-lived and Nakri weakened later that day and became extra-
tropical on the 3rd. The extratropical remnants continued moving east-
northeastward across the North Pacific for another week. The report on
Typhoon Nakri/Enteng may be found in the May summary.
The only other tropical cyclone in Western Pacific waters during June
was the deadly and destructive Typhoon Fengshen/Frank. More than 1000
lives were lost in the Philippines, including several hundred who drowned
when a ferry capsized during the storm. A report on Fengshen/Frank
follows.
TYPHOON FENGSHEN
(TC-07W / TY 0806 / FRANK)
17 - 27 June
----------------------------------------------
Fengshen: contributed by China, means 'God of wind' in Chinese
A. Introduction
---------------
Typhoon Fengshen was a late June typhoon of moderate intensity which
slashed destructively through the Philippines where it was known as
Typhoon Frank. The storm left a trail of death and destruction as it
passed through the archipelago. According to the Wikipedia report,
there were 1356 fatalities directly attributable to Fengshen/Frank
with 41 others missing. Total damage is estimated at US$480 million.
The storm also caused minor damage in Hong Kong, Macau, and southern
China. Over 700 of the fatalities occurred when a ferry, the MV Princess
of the Stars, capsized near Sibuyan Island as the typhoon roared by.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
The JMA identified a developing tropical disturbance several hundred
miles east of Mindanao as a weak tropical depression on 17 June. JTWC
issued their first warning on Tropical Depression 07W at 1200 UTC on
the 18th, locating the system approximately 155 nm northwest of Palau.
PAGASA designated the system as Tropical Depression Frank, and JTWC
upgraded TD-07W to tropical storm status on the second warning, issued
at 18/1800 UTC. At 0000 UTC 19 June, JMA upped the intensity to 35 kts
and assigned the international name Fengshen. Fengshen/Frank embarked
on a west-northwesterly track toward the Philippines and quickly reached
typhoon status, being upgraded by both JTWC and JMA at 19/1800 UTC.
The storm struck Samar Island with an intensity of 75 kts early on the
20th and continued to intensify as it moved through the archipelago.
Peak intensity of 95 kts (90 kts 10-min avg per JMA) and a CP of 945 mb
was reached at 21/0000 UTC while the typhoon was centered over the
Visayan Sea near 11.8N/122.3E.
Shortly after reaching peak intensity Fengshen/Frank turned to a
northwesterly track as high pressure to the north weakened. The storm
passed very near Manila around 22/0000 UTC with the MSW estimated at
70-75 kts. Continuing northwestward across western Luzon, the system
weakened into a tropical storm and had moved out over the South China
Sea by 23/0000 UTC. Tropical Storm Fengshen maintained an intensity
of 50-55 kts while traversing the South China Sea and made landfall
in China near Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, around 2200 UTC on 24 June.
Fengshen had weakened into a tropical depression by late on the 25th
with JTWC and JMA issuing their final warnings at 25/1200 and 25/1800
UTC, respectively. The weakening remnants of Fengshen continued north-
ward across China for a couple more days before dissipating.
A detailed report on Typhoon Fengshen/Frank may be found at the
following URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Fengshen_(2008)>
The Hong Kong Observatory's report on Typhoon Fengshen may be found
at the following link:
http://www.weather.gov.hk/informtc/fengshen/fengshen.htm>
C. Forecast Track Errors
------------------------
Forecast track errors were abysmal with Typhoon Fengshen. The
model consensus consistently carried the cyclone north, initially even
well east of the Philippines. And even after the system had emerged
into the South China Sea, the model forecast tracks were converging on
Taiwan. Only the UKMET model and perhaps one other correctly forecast
the landfall in south China well to the west of where the other models
were insisting that Fengshen would go. Initially a strong ridge was
located north of the developing system, and the models kept breaking
down the ridge and weakening it. This obviously didn't happen.
Following are some comments from Roger Edson regarding Fengshen's
track and the forecast errors (slightly edited):
(1) East of the Philippines: As Fengshen developed, it had been going
WNW for several days. I don't think the models realized how strong
the ridge was to the north, and kept breaking it down and moving the
TC (or its remnants) northward and east of Taiwan. (Most models
could not even hold onto the circulation, however.)
(2) Within the Philippines: Here the TC continued to rapidly intensify
in spite of hopping over the various islands (not unusual for TCs in
this area), and then made an almost 90-degree turn to the right
(north) as if it were going to finally follow the recurve forecast.
This abrupt turn was also unusual as I would usually expect it to
continue through the islands into the South China Sea before
recurving. Anyway, this was the time (maybe the only time during
its life cycle) when the vertical extent of the TC was fully
developed and the pressure tendency was toward the north, and it
actually followed the mean tropospheric steering flow...and the
model forecasts.
(3) In the South China Sea: Thanks to a combination of strong north-
easterly shear and some dry air to the north, the TC came out of
the Philippines...and STAYED...as a 'half typhoon'---seemed like it
was almost fully developed in the southern half of the circulation,
and had hardly any deep convection (except for some brief periods
of time over its center) over its northern half. Clearly, the
various model forecasts did not take into consideration (or
physically incorporate) this strong upper-level flow (above 400 mb).
This seems to be something the forecaster always sees, especially
in the water vapor imagery, but the models never seem to understand.
(Similarly, we see this all the time with TUTT interaction).
Normally, one would not forecast a TC to move directly into the
shear! In addition, when the TC is not fully developed in the
vertical, the models have a problem with identifying the 'apparent'
steering flow as I don't think the vortex and the environmental
interaction is accurately modeled.
(Report written by Gary Padgett with inputs from Roger Edson)
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for June: 2 depressions
North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for June
---------------------------------------------
No officially recognized tropical cyclones formed in the North Indian
Ocean basin during June, but there were a couple of depressions. The
first formed in the Arabian Sea near 15.5N/66.0E at 0000 UTC 5 June.
This system moved generally northwestward over the next couple of days.
I did prepare a track for this system in the June edition of the global
tracks file. SAB assigned an intensity of T2.5/2.5 at 06/0230 UTC, but
I left the MSW at 30 kts since neither JTWC nor IMD indicated tropical
storm intensity. However, there were some opinions expressed via e-mail
that the system was a weak tropical storm, based in part on some ASCAT
data which showed 30-kt winds all the way around the depression. The
system had weakened significantly by 7 June and the final track point
was near 20.8N/62.8E at 07/0600 UTC.
Another system in the Bay of Bengal was identified as a tropical
depression by IMD. The low-pressure area had become a depression by
16 June and was centered at 0300 UTC near 21.5N/90.0E, or about 120 nm
southeast of Kolkata (Calcutta). The depression subsequently moved
northward and crossed the Bangladesh coastline between 16/1100 and 1200
UTC, and at 1200 UTC was centered over coastal Bangladesh near
22.0N/89.5E, or about 70 nm east-southeast of Kolkata. The system was
forecast to continue further inland and weaken. No track was included
for this depression in the companion cyclone tracks file.
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for June: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for June: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for June: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for June: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>
JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen.
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
equator, can be found at:
(1) For the Eastern North Pacific:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html>
(2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html>
(4) Cyclone Tracking Information
--------------------------------
There is a U. S. Navy site that tracks tropical cyclones at 6-hourly
intervals which often includes pre and post-advisory positions. The
link to the site is:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/doc_archives/>
Steve Young has compiled many of these tracks onto a single webpage
which is very user-friendly:
http://home.earthlink.net/~shy9/tc1.htm>
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
Chris Landsea):
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
http://mpittweather.com>
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
Report (ATCR) for 2007 (2006-2007 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2007 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2007 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Northwest Pacific)
E-mail: [email protected]
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
|
Document: summ0806.htm
Updated: 4th November 2008 |
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