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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary March 2007
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                   MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                                MARCH, 2007

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)


  SPECIAL NOTE #1:  Very happily, John Diebolt of Tucson, Arizona, now has
  his tropical cyclone website up and running again and has begun once more
  to produce graphic images depicting the tracks of all tropical systems 
  for which I prepare a tabular track in the companion cyclone tracks file.
  These can be accessed at the following URL:

  http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>

  Scroll down the chart to the month of interest and click on the green
  bar under "Operational Track Image" for the desired system.

  The tabular track of positions and intensities may also be obtained
  from the above website, or from the other archival sites listed in
  the Author's Note in the closing section of this summary.


  SPECIAL NOTE #2:  Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale 
  maps for all tropical cyclones may be found at the following links:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season>

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Pacific_hurricane_season>

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Pacific_typhoon_season>

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_North_Indian_cyclone_season>

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006-07_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season>

  *************************************************************************

                              MARCH HIGHLIGHTS

   --> Destructive tropical cyclone strikes Madagascar--another cyclone
       makes landfall in early April
   --> Intense tropical cyclone strikes Western Australia, followed by
       two weaker cyclones in same area
   --> South Pacific cyclone brushes by Vanuatu

  *************************************************************************
  
                            ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for March:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for March:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for March:  1 tropical depression **
                       1 tropical storm ++

  ** - classified as a tropical depression by JMA only

  ++ - system reached typhoon intensity in April and will be covered in
       that month's summary


                         Sources of Information
                         ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).  A very special thanks to Michael for the
  assistance he so reliably provides.
  
      In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.


                Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for March
                ---------------------------------------------

     During the opening days of March a tropical disturbance hung around
  just south of the Mariana Islands.  According to Mark Lander, Guam
  received nearly 51 mm of rainfall within a 48-hour period around the
  4th and 5th of March.  JMA classified the system as a weak tropical
  depression near 9.0N/143.0W at 0600 UTC on 6 March but downgraded it
  to a low pressure area twelve hours later.  The LOW remained quasi-
  stationary and was referenced in JMA's High Seas Bulletins through
  08/0000 UTC.  JTWC mentioned this system in their STWOs for a couple
  days but never assigned more than a 'poor' potential for development.
  The LLCC apparently formed near the tail end of a baroclinic zone and
  most of the associated deep convection remained displaced to the north-
  east of the center along a convergent boundary.  No track was included
  for this depression in the companion cyclone tracks file.

     At the end of the month, Tropical Depression 01W formed in the
  eastern Carolines, and on the final day of the month was christened
  Tropical Storm Kong-rey--the first tropical storm of 2007 in the NWP
  basin.  Kong-rey intensified into a typhoon of moderate intensity during
  the early days of April and will be covered in the April summary.

  *************************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for March:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for March:  1 tropical disturbance
                       1 possible subtropical storm **
                       2 intense tropical cyclones

  ** - no warnings issued on this system


                           Sources of Information
                           ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
  the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
  Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
  for the basin.    However, tropical cyclones in this region are named 
  by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and 
  Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their 
  respective areas of naming responsibility.  The La Reunion centre only 
  advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.  
  References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless
  otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
  40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
  1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
  tracks file.    Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.


             Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for March
             --------------------------------------------------

     Activity in the Southwest Indian Ocean slacked off somewhat from the
  fast pace of February, but nonetheless two intense tropical cyclones
  formed during the month.   Tropical Cyclone Indlala formed on the 10th
  well to the north of Rodrigues Island and moved generally westward,
  making landfall as an intense tropical cyclone in northeastern Madagascar
  early on the 15th.   Late in the month, Tropical Cyclone Jaya formed
  a few hundred miles northeast of Rodrigues and followed a track similar
  to Indlala's, making landfall in Madagascar on 3 April a short distance
  north of the area struck by Indlala.   At its peak Jaya was a slightly
  more intense storm than Indlala, but fortunately had weakened to minimal
  hurricane intensity by the time of landfall.   Reports on these two
  cyclones follow.

     In between the two cyclones another tropical disturbance formed,
  numbered '13' by MFR.  This system formed several hundred miles south-
  southeast of Diego Garcia on the 13th (near 14.5S/77.0E) and meandered
  slowly southward for the next three days, reaching 19.2S/76.3E by
  16/0000 UTC.  After this Tropical Disturbance 13 turned abruptly to
  the northwest, eventually curving back to the north.  The final bulletin
  from MFR at 17/0600 UTC placed the center near 16.7S/74.0E.  The highest
  10-min avg wind estimated for this system was 25 kts, and no warnings
  were issued by JTWC.  A track for this system may be found in the
  companion cyclone tracks file, and a track graphic is available on
  John Diebolt's website.

     One other system deserves mention.  SAB issued satellite bulletins
  on 20 and 21 March for a cyclonic system several hundred miles south-
  east of Durban, South Africa.  The LOW initially moved southward, then
  curved to the east.  This system was not tropical in nature, but rather
  exhibited some characteristics of subtropical cyclones.  NRL did not
  open an invest number for the system, so SAB referred to it as '99S'.
  The initial SAB bulletin at 20/0900 UTC, which located the center near
  34.5S/36.7E, noted that a QuikScat pass at 20/0336 UTC had detected
  winds of 35-40 kts.  FSU cyclone phase space diagrams based on the
  20/0000 UTC GFS run indicated a nominal shallow warm-core thermal
  structure consistent with subtropical storms.  Most of the associated
  convection was located east and poleward of the center in a manner
  typical of subtropical systems.  The final SAB bulletin placed the
  weakening center near 36.6S/41.2E at 1900 UTC.  No TCWC issued warnings
  on this system.  A track for this system may be found in the companion
  cyclone tracks file, and a track graphic is available on John Diebolt's
  website.



                      INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE INDLALA
                              (MFR-12 / TC-19S)
                                10 - 17 March
            ----------------------------------------------------

  A. General Information
  ----------------------

  1. Identification

     a. RSMC - Meteo France La Reunion (MFR)
     b. MFR  - Tropical Disturbance 12
     c. JTWC - Tropical Cyclone 19S
     d. NAME - Indlala (named by Mauritius at Mar 12/0000 UTC; name
               contributed to the regional list by Swaziland)

  2. Overview

     a. Basins Affected:  Southwest Indian Ocean (SWI)
     b. Dates:            10 - 17 March
     c. Max Sust Winds:   95 kts (10-min avg per MFR)
                          125 kts (1-min avg per JTWC)
     d. Min Cent Press:   935 hPa (estimate per MFR)

  3. Beginning of Track:  Mar 10/1200 UTC, near 14.9S/61.8E, or about
     400 nm northeast of Mauritius, as referenced in initial bulletin
     issued by MFR.

  4. Peak Intensity:  Mar 14/1800 UTC, near 14.8S/51.0E, or about 315 nm
     northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar.  (It should be noted that MFR's
     MSW was at 95 kts from 14/1800 through 15/0600 UTC.)

  5. Size:  Based on MFR's warnings, at its peak Intense Tropical Cyclone
     Indlala was perhaps slightly smaller than average with a gale radius
     of 90 nm.  However, JTWC's warnings described a significantly larger
     system with gales extending outward 140 nm from the center in the
     northwest quadrant and up to 195 nm in the southeast quadrant.

  6. End of Track:  Mar 17/0600 UTC, near 18.0S/47.5E, or inland about
     90 km north of Antananarivo, Madagascar.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

  1. Origin:  An area of convection formed and persisted on 9 March about
     550 nm southwest of Diego Garcia, as referenced in a STWO issued by
     JTWC at 09/1800 UTC.  Microwave imagery depicted a developing LLCC
     embedded in a monsoon trough.  An upper-level analysis indicated that
     the disturbance was lying beneath the center of a 200-mb anticyclone
     with low vertical shear and favorable diffluence aloft.  The primary
     center of interest apparently reformed to the west--at 1200 UTC on
     10 March MFR issued the first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 12,
     located approximately 400 nm northeast of Mauritius, or about 770 nm
     southwest of Diego Garcia.   Convection was continuing to build near
     and over the center, and JTWC upped the potential for development to
     'fair'.  JTWC issued a TCFA for the system at 10/2300 UTC, and at
     11/0600 UTC MFR upgraded the system to a 30-kt tropical depression
     and relocated the center to a point over 100 nm to the north of the
     previous position.

     Convective banding began developing to the west of a partially-
     exposed, though well-defined, LLCC, and even though vertical shear had
     increased slightly, outflow was good and the depression continued to
     slowly strengthen.     At 0000 UTC on 12 March the Meteorological
     Service of Mauritius upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Indlala,
     located about 400 nm north of Mauritius, and moving westward around
     6 kts.  At the same time, JTWC issued their first warning on TC-19S,
     estimating the MSW at 40 kts (1-min avg).  (Due to a spelling error on
     a roster of names originally posted on the WMO's website, the initial
     MFR warning after the upgrade gave the storm's name as 'Indlada'.  A
     check was made with the Meteorological Service of Swaziland and it
     was confirmed that 'Indlala' was the correct spelling, so an amended
     warning was then issued.)

  2. General Description of Track:  At the time of its upgrade Tropical
     Storm Indlala was moving on a westerly track, steered by a subtropical
     ridge anchored south of Reunion Island.  The ridge was forecast to
     re-orient itself in response to a trough then located over South
     Africa, resulting in a more west-southwesterly track for Indlala.
     By the 13th the storm had turned to the west-southwest as forecast,
     and this motion continued through landfall in Madagascar around
     15/0000 UTC.  Indlala was upgraded to tropical cyclone (hurricane)
     status at 0600 UTC on 13 March, and reached its peak intensity of
     95 kts (10-min avg) at 14/1800 UTC.   Intense Tropical Cyclone
     Indlala made landfall around 15/0000 UTC over the Masoala Peninsula,
     in the vicinity of Antalaha at peak intensity.  (JTWC estimated that
     the storm peaked at a 1-min avg MSW of 125 kts at 14/1800 UTC, but
     had weakened to 105 kts by the time of landfall.)

     Following landfall Indlala predictably began to weaken rapidly.
     MFR downgraded the system to a 60-kt severe tropical storm at 1200
     UTC, and to a 30-kt tropical depression twelve hours later, although
     the warning noted that winds of up to 40 kts were still being felt
     along the coast.  Also, at 16/0000 UTC JTWC issued their final warning
     on Indlala.  The general west-southwesterly motion continued until
     around 16/0600 UTC, followed by a turn toward the south.  The final
     warning on Indlala issued by MFR at 17/0600 UTC placed a very weak
     20-kt center approximately 90 km north of Antananarivo, Madagascar.


  C. Meteorological Data
  ----------------------

     I have only one observation for Indlala, sent by Derrick Herndon.
  Ship ELVG8 was located about 150 nm west of the center on 12 March.
  At 12/0000 UTC the ship reported 1004.4 hPa and 210/35 kts, and at
  0600 UTC it reported 1007.8 hPa and 210/35 kts.  (Thanks to Derrick
  for sending this along.)


  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     According to press reports, Indlala left 80 persons dead in Madagascar
  with over 105,000 homeless.  The online Wikipedia report contains some
  links with a detailed region-by-region breakdown of the storm's impact.


  E. Additional Discussion
  ------------------------

     The peak intensity estimates for Indlala from MFR and JTWC were
  further apart than normal with MFR's 10-min avg peaking at 95 kts,
  whereas JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW was 115 kts but with a statement in
  the 15/0000 UTC warning to the effect that Indlala had peaked at 125 kts
  at 14/1800 UTC.  Dvorak intensity estimates from JTWC and AFWA reached
  T6.5/6.5 (127 kts) at 14/1730 UTC, while SAB's peak rating was T6.0/6.0
  (115 kts).  Also, Chris Velden noted in an e-mail that they were getting
  AODT readings of T6.2-6.4 with a 14/1100 UTC AMSU intensity of 115 kts.

     In a reply to Chris' e-mail, Philippe Caroff explained that their
  more conservative intensity was primarily predicated on the eyewall
  replacement cycle which had begun around the time the cyclone appeared
  to reach its peak intensity in satellite imagery.  Philippe was of the
  opinion that a pure Dvorak analysis could be somewhat misleading since
  the eyewall cycle would likely be a limiting factor to some degree in
  the intensification trend.   This is just another example of the many
  complicating issues to be dealt with in estimating tropical cyclone
  intensities from satellite imagery.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                        INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE JAYA
                              (MFR-14 / TC-22S)
                             29 March - 8 April
              -------------------------------------------------

  A. General Information
  ----------------------

  1. Identification

     a. RSMC - Meteo France La Reunion (MFR)
     b. MFR  - Tropical Disturbance 14
     c. JTWC - Tropical Cyclone 22S
     d. NAME - Jaya (named by Mauritius at Mar 30/1200 UTC; name
               contributed to the regional list by Zimbabwe)

  2. Overview

     a. Basins Affected:  Southwest Indian Ocean (SWI)
     b. Dates:            29 March - 8 April, 2007
     c. Max Sust Winds:   105 kts (10-min avg per MFR)
                          110 kts (1-min avg per JTWC)
     d. Min Cent Press:   930 hPa (estimate per MFR)

  3. Beginning of Track:  Mar 29/1200 UTC, near 12.9S/69.0E, or about
     400 nm southwest of Diego Garcia, as referenced in initial bulletin
     issued by MFR.

  4. Peak Intensity:  Mar 31/1800 UTC, near 14.7S/61.5E, or about 400 nm
     northeast of Mauritius.  (It should be noted that MFR's MSW was at
     105 kts from 31/1800 through 01/0600 UTC.)

  5. Size:  Based on MFR's warnings, at its peak Tropical Cyclone Jaya was
     a small tropical cyclone with a gale radius of 60 nm.  However, JTWC's
     warnings described a somewhat larger cyclone with gale radii ranging
     from 95-110 nm.

  6. End of Track:  Apr 08/0600 UTC, near 17.4S/40.3E, or about 350 nm
     east-northeast of Beira, Mozambique.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

  1. Origin:  An interim STWO issued by JTWC at 0300 UTC on 28 March
     noted that an area of convection had persisted approximately 455 nm
     southeast of Diego Garcia.  A partially-exposed LLCC was present with
     deep convection and weak banding developing over the western quadrant.
     An upper-level anticyclone was located east of the center with
     diffluent, easterly flow over the area with weak vertical shear.
     By early on the 29th the LLCC was consolidating and JTWC upped the
     development potential to 'fair'.  MFR initiated bulletins on the
     disturbance at 29/1200 UTC with the system located farther to the
     west, or about 400 nm southwest of Diego Garcia.   MFR did not issue
     another bulletin until 0600 UTC on 30 March, at which time the system
     was upgraded to Tropical Depression 14 with 30-kt winds.  At the same
     time JTWC issued their first warning on TC-22S, estimating the MSW at
     45 kts (1-min avg).  Six hours later MFR upgraded the depression to
     tropical storm status with the Meteorological Service of Mauritius
     assigning the name Jaya.  Tropical Storm Jaya, at 30/1200 UTC, was
     located approximately 650 nm northeast of Mauritius, moving westward
     at 5 kts.  (Note: The online Wikipedia report on Jaya suggests that
     Mauritius upgraded and named the storm at 30/0600 UTC.)

  2. General Description of Track:  In a manner similar to its predecessor,
     Tropical Cyclone Indlala, Jaya followed a rather smooth westerly
     track as it was steered by a subtropical ridge located to its south.
     Environmental conditions were favorable for continued strengthening,
     and after its upgrade to tropical storm status, Jaya intensified
     fairly quickly, reaching tropical cyclone (hurricane) intensity at
     0000 UTC on 31 March (per both MFR and JTWC).   The cyclone continued
     to intensify and reached its estimated peak intensity of 105 kts with
     a CP of 930 hPa at 31/1800 UTC while located about 400 nm northeast of
     Mauritius.  However, very early on 1 April SSMI water vapor imagery
     revealed that some drier air had become entrained into the storm's
     northwestern quadrant, leading to a significant reduction in the
     amount of deep convection near the center.   MFR reduced the MSW to
     85 kts at 01/1200 UTC where it remained pegged for another 30 hours.

     On 2 April Jaya underwent a short-lived spurt of re-intensification
     with fairly symmetric deep convection surrounding a 6-nm round eye.
     MFR upped the intensity to 90 kts (10-min avg) with JTWC assigning
     their peak intensity of 110 kts (1-min avg) for the storm's history.
     (At the time of MFR's peak intensity of 105 kts, JTWC's 1-min avg MSW 
     had also been 105 kts.)  As Jaya neared the coastline of Madagascar it
     began to weaken rather quickly and moved inland around 03/0800 UTC 
     about 25 km south of Sambava with 10-min avg winds of around 75 kts.

     Jaya jogged northwestward between 03/0000 and 0600 UTC, but the
     westerly motion resumed as the cyclone neared Madagascar and moved
     inland.  Once inland the small system weakened very rapidly.  The
     weak remnant LOW moved out into the northern Mozambique Channel
     around 0000 UTC on 4 April.  The system spent the next four days
     meandering erratically in the Channel between Madagascar and
     Mozambique.  After 04/0600 UTC, MFR issued only two bulletins for
     ex-Jaya: at 05/1200 and 07/1200 UTC with the MSW estimated at only
     20 kts.  JTWC did not issue any further warnings (although a couple
     of TCFAs were issued), but satellite bulletins from that agency and
     AFWA supported 35-kt winds (1-min avg) at 05/1800 and 06/0000 UTC
     when the LOW was fairly close to the Mozambique coast.  By 0600 UTC
     on the 8th the LLCC had become very weak with no associated deep
     convection.  According to Philippe Caroff of RSMC La Reunion, the
     remnant of Jaya was absorbed into a developing LOW to the southwest
     which was later identified as Subtropical Depression 15.  A report
     on this system will be included in the April summary.


  C. Meteorological Data
  ----------------------

     I have received no observations in association with Intense Tropical
  Cyclone Jaya.


  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     The only information I have regarding damage and casualties resulting
  from Tropical Cyclone Jaya was sent in an e-mail from Philippe Caroff,
  Chief Forecaster at RSMC La Reunion.   (A thanks to Philippe for replying
  to my request for information.)  Philippe reports that shortly after Jaya
  made landfall, the press reported 2 or 3 deaths in the Sambava area, but
  that a later report mentioned only one fatality with more than 3600
  persons affected and more than 900 houses or buildings destroyed.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for March:  3 severe tropical cyclones


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are 
  the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning
  Centres at Perth, Western Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory. 
  References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor-
  dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings are also the
  source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included
  in the tracks file.   Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.


                Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean
                       Tropical Activity for March
                ------------------------------------------

     For the first time in three years, the Darwin TCWC got to bestow a
  name upon a developing tropical system.  Tropical Cyclone George was the
  first cyclone to form in waters between 138E and 125E since Tropical
  Cyclone Fay in March, 2004.  That isn't to say that the forecasters at
  Darwin have been idle since 2004--two visitors from the Coral Sea,
  Ingrid of March, 2005, and Monica of April, 2006, both attained great
  intensity as they traversed waters off the Northern Territory.  Like
  its predecessor, Fay, George moved westward and eventually made landfall
  in Western Australia as a severe tropical cyclone.  George was the most
  intense cyclone to affect the Port Hedland area since Tropical Cyclone
  Joan of 1975.

     Tropical Cyclone Jacob was co-existent with George for part of its
  life, and after initially moving westward and flirting with Christmas
  Island, Jacob reversed its course toward the southeast, aiming at the
  very spot where the destructive George had landed about three days
  earlier.  Very fortunately, however, Jacob began to weaken and reached
  the coast as a minimal tropical cyclone.   Late in the month, Tropical
  Cyclone Kara formed from a LOW which moved off the Kimberley coast, and
  in a manner similar to Jacob, after moving westward, reversed course and
  headed for the Western Australian coastline.  Kara became quite intense,
  but as happened with Jacob, the storm began to weaken as it approached
  the coast and had dropped to just below cyclone intensity before moving
  onshore.

     Reports on Severe Tropical Cyclones George, Jacob and Kara follow.
  The reports on Jacob and Kara were authored by Matthew Saxby of
  Queanbeyan, New South Wales (very near Canberra).  A special thanks to
  Matthew for writing the reports.



                       SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GEORGE
                                  (TC-17S)
                           26 February - 10 March
             --------------------------------------------------

  A. General Information
  ----------------------

  1. Identification

     a. RSMC - BoM Darwin/Bom Perth
     b. JTWC - Tropical Cyclone 17S
     c. NAME - George (named by BoM Darwin at Mar 03/1800 UTC)

  2. Overview

     a. Basins Affected:  Northeast Australia/Coral Sea (AUE)
                          Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean (AUW)
     b. Dates:            26 February - 10 March, 2007
     c. Max Sust Winds:   105 kts (10-min avg per BoM Perth)
                          110 kts (1-min avg per JTWC)
     d. Min Cent Press:   910 hPa (estimate per BoM Perth)

  3. Beginning of Track:  Feb 26/0130 UTC, near 10.5S/135.5E, or about
     210 nm north-northwest of Alyangula, Northern Territory, as referenced
     in a Tropical Cyclone Outlook issued by BoM Darwin.

  4. Peak Intensity:  Mar 08/1200 UTC, near 19.9S/119.1E, or about 35 nm
     northeast of Port Hedland, Western Australia.

  5. Size:  At its peak Severe Tropical Cyclone George was roughly an
     average-sized cyclone with gale radii of around 90-110 nm.

  6. End of Track:  Mar 10/0000 UTC, near 23.6S/121.7E, or inland about
     500 km southeast of Port Hedland, Western Australia.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

  1. Origin:  Early on 26 February a developing tropical LOW was located
     in the southern Arafura Sea near the coast of the Northern Territory
     about 230 km northwest of Nhulunbuy.  Later that same day JTWC began
     to include the disturbance in their daily STWOs.  QuikScat data and
     animated radar imagery from Gove indicated tight cyclonic turning
     with the center just north of an upper-level ridge axis.  Diffluence
     aloft was good but vertical wind shear was moderate.  Over the next
     2 or 3 days the LOW remained quasi-stationary, meandering around the
     northeastern portion of the Top End.  At one point it appeared that
     it would move eastward into the Gulf of Carpentaria and develop
     further there, but on 1 March the LOW embarked on a westerly course
     across the Top End approximately 100 km inland from and roughly
     parallel to the coastline.

     The LOW remained well-organized as it transited the Northern
     Territory (something not unusual at all for inland systems over
     northern Australia), and as it began to approach the Joseph Bonaparte
     Gulf region, convection began to increase.  BoM Darwin initiated
     Tropical Cyclone Advices for the system at 0600 UTC on 2 March
     with the center located about 75 km south-southeast of Oenpelli
     and moving west at 12 km/hr.  Gale warnings had been issued as of
     28 February for monsoon gales occurring along the northern coast of
     the Top End.  JTWC issued a TCFA for the LOW at 2230 UTC on 2 March
     as the center passed southeast of Darwin.    Deep convection was
     increasing along the western periphery of the consolidating LLCC.
     BoM Darwin upgraded the LOW to Tropical Cyclone George at 1800 UTC
     on 3 March with the center moving offshore into the Joseph Bonaparte
     Gulf about 20 nm south-southwest of Port Keats, or about 150 nm
     southwest of Darwin.  George was moving southwestward at 6 kts with
     the MSW estimated at 35 kts.  (Earlier, at 03/1200 UTC, JTWC had
     issued the first warning on TC-17S with the 1-min avg MSW estimated
     at 45 kts.)

     2. General Description of Track:  A subtropical ridge firmly anchored
     over Western Australia provided a steering mechanism for George for
     several days, sending the cyclone on an almost straight westerly
     track.  George intensified to 50 kts while crossing the Joseph
     Bonaparte Gulf, but briefly weakened to below cyclone intensity while
     crossing the extreme northeastern portion of the state of Western
     Australia.  By 1800 UTC on the 4th George's center was about to emerge
     into the open Timor Sea and the winds had rebounded to 40 kts.  After
     that, however, the cyclone was slow to re-intensify due to the loss of
     its polar outflow channel and also to the presence of moderate
     vertical shear.  George continued tracking westward through 0600 UTC
     on 7 March.   A weakness had developed in the subtropical ridge and
     the cyclone responded by making an abrupt turn to the south.

     An upper-level LOW to the west was situated such that it helped to
     improve outflow, and in conjunction with decreasing vertical shear,
     the stage was set for George to intensify significantly as it 
     approached the coastline of Western Australia.  BoM Perth upgraded 
     George to severe tropical cyclone (i.e., hurricane) status at 07/0600
     UTC, and the cyclone intensified rapidly early on the 8th (UTC).  The
     eye passed directly over Bedout Island (apparently between 0900 and 
     1000 UTC) with peak 10-min avg winds of 105 kts being recorded.  This
     observation was the basis for Perth and JTWC upping the winds to the
     respective peak values for the storm's history of 105 kts (10-min avg)
     and 110 kts (1-min avg).

     The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone George crossed the Western
     Australian coastline near Port Hedland around 1400 UTC on 8 March at
     its peak intensity--a strong Category 4 cyclone on the Australian
     scale with the CP estimated at 910 hPa.  Around the time of landfall
     the system made a slight jog to the south-southwest, but by 09/0600
     UTC the still potent cyclone was moving southeastward across north-
     central Western Australia.  By 1200 UTC winds had dropped below
     hurricane intensity, and by 10/0000 UTC George had weakened to below
     tropical cyclone status about 95 km east-southeast of Jigalong as
     it tracked east-southeastward at 15 km/hr.


  C. Meteorological Data
  ----------------------

  (1) Northern Territory Rainfall
  -------------------------------

     During the early days of March, the pre-cyclone stage of George moved
  across the northern portion of the Northern Territory, dropping copious
  amounts of moisture.  Some stations across the Top End recorded their
  highest rainfalls on record during the month of March.  Not all of this
  rainfall was due to pre-George, but following are some March daily
  rainfall records which were likely broken due to this system:

  Station         Highest Daily      Date     Previous Highest      Date
                  Rainfall (mm)                     (mm)
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Oenpelli            311.2         01 Mar          209.6       06 Mar 1919
  Black Point         162.2         03 Mar          129.9       04 Mar 2000
  Howard Springs      212.0         04 Mar          184.9       04 Mar 1969
  Adelaide River PO   244.0         03 Mar          123.2       04 Mar 1969
  Channel Island      225.0         03 Mar          194.6       26 Mar 1941
  Mango Farm          295.0         03 Mar          143.6       15 Mar 1983
  Elizabeth Valley    190.4         03 Mar          150.6       10 Mar 1989
  Jabiru Airport AWS  393.4         02 Mar          129.0       10 Mar 1973
  Karama              206.5         04 Mar          177.8       22 Mar 2006
  Wagait Beach        279.2         03 Mar          192.8       02 Mar 1997
  Territory Wildlife
        Farm          142.5         03 Mar          113.4       03 Mar 1998
  Thorak Cemetery     240.0         03 Mar          200.0       02 Mar 1998
  Walker Creek        255.5         03 Mar          164.0       08 Mar 1995


     While not all the heavy rainfall for March could be attributed to
  George, the amounts dropped by this system contributed to several
  stations setting new monthly rainfall totals for March:

  Station                      Total Rainfall       Previous Highest   Year
                                    (mm)                  (mm)
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Oenpelli                         1106.6                 601.8        1981
  Darwin River Dam                  657.3                 614.5        1977
  Adelaide River Post Office        653.0                 580.0        1976
  Humpty Doo Collard Road           686.0                 622.2        1995
  Mango Farm                        710.6                 533.4        1983
  Jabiru Airpost AWS               1141.6                 590.4        1976
  Leanyer                           708.6                 662.0        2006
  Elizabeth Valley                  642.2                 589.0        1989
  Mary River Rangers                562.0                 540.1        2000
  Wagait Beach                      685.2                 624.6        1995
  Territory Wildlife Park           571.5                 554.7        1995
  Thorak Cemetery                   810.8                 759.8        1995
  Walker Creek                      741.6                 663.2        2000
  Batchelor Aero AWS                702.2                 495.8        2001
  Jabiru Council                    455.6                 443.8        1999

  (A special thanks to Mark Kersemakers for pointing me to the above data.)

     During the evening of 1 March a line of strong thunderstorms
  associated with the pre-George LOW passed over the Kakadu National Park,
  spawning a tornado which carved a trail of destruction along a 3-km long
  path which passed within a few hundred metres of the Mary River Ranger
  Station.   Hardwood trees such as eucalyptus and ironwoods were uprooted
  or torn apart with mature trees being reduced to de-barked and
  de-foliated stumps within the 300-metre wide path of the tornado.  Based
  on a damage survey, winds within the tornado were estimated at between
  125 and 145 kts.

     More information on this rare, deep-tropics tornado along with damage
  photos may be found at the following link:

  http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/20070320.shtml>


  (2) Wind Observations
  ---------------------

     The maximum wind recorded in Tropical Cyclone George was a 10-min avg
  wind of 105 kts at Bedout Island at 1000 UTC 8 March.     At the Port
  Hedland Airport, the peak 10-min avg wind recorded was 61 kts at
  1351 UTC 8 March, and the peak gust of 82 kts was measured at 1340 UTC
  on 8 March.  The minimum SLP recorded was 962.7 hPa at 08/1512 UTC.
  However, wind speed data is missing during the time that the strongest
  winds were affecting Port Hedland, so likely the actual peak winds
  experienced were stronger than the values reported above.

  (A special thanks to Joe Courtney for sending me the above data.)


  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     According to the online Wikipedia report, George was the most
  powerful cyclone to hit the Port Hedland area since Cyclone Joan in
  1975.  (For an eyewitness account of Joan's strike on Port Hedland,
  see the monthly feature in the February, 2001, summary, available
  on the archive sites listed near the end of this summary.)   In the
  Port Hedland area George's winds downed power and telephone lines and
  fences, caused roof damage and uprooted trees.  BoM's Port Hedland
  radar dome was damaged by the cyclone.

     Three deaths and 28 injuries were attributed to the storm.  One
  fatality, and another injury which ultimately proved to be fatal, 
  occurred at a Fortescue Metals Group camp about 100 km south of Port 
  Hedland when strong winds blew down temporary accommodation shelters.
  Another death occurred at Indee station, located between Port Hedland 
  and the mining camp.

     The Wikipedia report may be accessed at the following link:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_George>

     A brief summary of the storm can be found on BoM's website at the
  following URL:

  http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sevwx/wa/watc20070303.shtml>

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                       SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JACOB
                                  (TC-18S)
                                5 - 12 March
             -------------------------------------------------

  A. General Information
  ----------------------

  1. Identification

     a. RSMC - BoM Perth
     b. JTWC - Tropical Cyclone 18S
     c. NAME - Jacob (named by BoM Perth at Mar 07/0000 UTC)

  2. Overview

     a. Basins Affected:  Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean (AUW)
     b. Dates:            5 - 12 March, 2007
     c. Max Sust Winds:   75 kts (10-min avg per BoM Perth)
                          75 kts (1-min avg per JTWC)
     d. Min Cent Press:   954 hPa (estimate per BoM Perth)

  3. Beginning of Track:  Mar 05/0000 UTC, near 14.3S/114.8E, or about
     440 nm north of Onslow, Western Australia, as referenced in initial
     gale warning issued by BoM Perth.

  4. Peak Intensity:  Mar 09/1800 UTC, near 15.6S/109.8E, or about 400 nm
     southeast of Christmas Island.  (It should be noted that BoM Perth's
     MSW was at 75 kts from 09/1800 through 10/0600 UTC.)

  5. Size:  Based on BoM Perth's warnings, at its peak Severe Tropical
     Cyclone Jacob was an average-sized cyclone with gales extending
     outward 90 nm from the center in the southern quadrants and 140 nm
     to the north.  However, JTWC's warnings described a slightly smaller
     system with a gale radius of 80 nm.

  6. End of Track:  Mar 12/0600 UTC, near 20.3S/119.5E, or inland about
     90 km east of Port Hedland, Western Australia.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

  1. Origin:  BoM Perth's Tropical Cyclone Outlook (TCO) of 03 March makes 
     first mention of the pre-Jacob system.  At this time it was not 
     expected to develop.  However, a JTWC STWO issued either later the 
     same day or early 04 March (UTC) gave it a FAIR chance of developing 
     (NB: The actual STWO is unavailable to the author, but the 04/1800 UTC
     STWO is clearly not JTWC's first mention of pre-Jacob; this STWO 
     notes an elongated LLCC with favourable poleward outflow but 
     decreasing convection and unfavourable vertical wind-shear, and 
     downgrades pre-Jacob to POOR).  Nonetheless, BoM Perth began issuing 
     gale warnings at 05/0242 UTC as winds to 40 kts were forecast
     in the system's western quadrants.  Slow development took place in a 
     marginal environment (good upper-level divergence but strong vertical
     wind shear) during the next two days, and Jacob was named in a public
     TC Advisory affecting Christmas Island issued at 07/0050 UTC 
     (9:50 am WDT).  Maximum wind gusts were assessed at 100 km/h, 
     equivalent to 10-minute winds of 40 kts or 1-minute winds of 45 kts.
     JTWC's first warning followed at 07/0300 UTC, giving 1-minute winds 
     of 35 kts.

  2. General Description of Track:  Until about 08/0400 UTC, Jacob tracked
     generally west to west-northwestwards around the northern periphery of
     a subtropical ridge.  Thereafter it became quasi-stationary as the 
     influence of a near-equatorial ridge increased and the subtropical 
     ridge weakened.  The near-equatorial ridge became the dominant 
     steering influence from about 08/1300 UTC, and Jacob thereafter moved
     generally south-eastwards until after making landfall on the Western 
     Australian coastline near Port Hedland at about 12/0300 UTC.

     Vertical wind shear hindered Jacob throughout its lifetime.  Despite 
     that, it twice peaked at 75 kts (10-minute wind), first at 07/2200 
     UTC, and again at 09/1800 UTC.  However, after 10/0600 UTC, dry air 
     entrainment, increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing poleward 
     outflow all combined to cause steady weakening; Jacob was only a 
     marginal TC at landfall and dissipated rapidly thereafter.


  C. Meteorological Data
  ----------------------

        Christmas Island recorded 80.8 mm of rain on 07 March as Jacob 
     approached from the east.  Curiously, however, rainfall was much less
     on 08 March (21.6 mm) when Jacob was closest to the island.  Although 
     records are unavailable from 08/1227 - 09/0223 UTC, it appears that 
     at no time were gales recorded, and the lowest SLP was 999 hPa at 
     07/2200 UTC.

        Jacob's chief effect on the mainland was rainfall, though this was 
     confined to the Pilbara District.  Top 24-hour readings were 114 mm at
     Port Hedland (12 March) and 123 mm at Yarrie (13 March).  Yarrie also 
     recorded a 72-hr total of 212 mm on 12 March.    These falls, plus 
     widespread readings of 50 mm and above, were enough to cause some 
     flooding in the De Grey River catchment, and BoM Perth issued flood 
     warnings for this river and its tributaries on 12 - 13 March.

        Only Bedout Island recorded gales (34 kts at 12/0300 UTC), and the 
     lowest SLP recorded was 998.3 hPa at Legendre Island at 11/1900 UTC. 


  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

        This author knows of no casualties or significant damage directly 
     attributable to TC Jacob.  However, according to reports on "The West
     Australian" website, winds from Jacob may have torn away some of the 
     tarpaulins being used to re-roof buildings damaged by TC George, and 
     Jacob's approach led to the old Port Hedland Detention Centre (closed
     2004) being re-opened to hold evacuees from Port Hedland and nearby 
     areas.  Jacob also forced Fortescue Metals Group, some of whose 
     employees were among TC George's victims, to evacuate its other rail 
     camps in order to prevent any further injury or loss of life.


  E. Additional Discussion
  ------------------------

        TC Jacob could have caused a major disaster, given that its 
     landfall was very near to that of TC George only a few days before, 
     and given that at one time it was expected to reach Category Four 
     status -- the same as George -- and be a good deal more intense at 
     landfall than it finally was.  Thanks to vertical wind shear, a 
     potential catastrophe became a non-event.

  (Report written by Matthew Saxby)



                        SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KARA
                                  (TC-20S)
                               24 - 28 March
              ------------------------------------------------
 
  A. General Information
  ----------------------

  1. Identification

     a. RSMC - BoM Perth
     c. JTWC - Tropical Cyclone 20S
     d. NAME - Kara (named by BoM by Perth at Mar 25/0600 UTC)

  2. Overview

     a. Basins Affected:  Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean (AUW)
     b. Dates:            24 - 28 March, 2007
     c. Max Sust Winds:   85 kts (10-min avg per BoM Perth)
                          105 kts (1-min avg per JTWC)
     d. Min Cent Press:   942 hPa (estimate per BoM Perth)

  3. Beginning of Track:  Mar 24/0600 UTC, near 16.0S/120.8E, or about
     145 nm northwest of Broome, Western Australia, as referenced in
     initial advice issued by BoM Perth.

  4. Peak Intensity:  Mar 26/1200 UTC, near 18.3S/115.3E, or about 170 nm
     north-northwest of Karratha, Western Australia.  (It should be noted
     that BoM Perth's MSW was at 85 kts from 26/0800 through 27/0600 UTC.)

  5. Size:  At its peak Tropical Cyclone Kara was a fairly small tropical
     cyclone with a gale radius of around 70 nm.

  6. End of Track:  Mar 28/0000 UTC, near 19.4S/121.3E, or inland about 
     85 km southwest of Bidyadanga, Western Australia.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

  1. Origin:  According to BoM Perth's first daily Tropical Cyclone Outlook
     mentioning the pre-Kara system (24 March), it originated over the 
     Kimberley region of northern Western Australia before moving out to 
     sea.  It began to develop in a favorable environment almost 
     immediately, and BoM Perth initiated both marine and public advisories
     at 24/0700 UTC.  10-minute sustained winds were then stated as 25 kts,
     but gales were expected to develop in the western quadrants and 
     extend throughout the system within 24 hours.  JTWC issued a TCFA at 
     25/0221 UTC (as per the first warning; the TCFA did not reach the 
     author), but development was rapid, as forecast, and Kara was named 
     in a BoM Perth public advisory issued at 25/0545 UTC.    The then 
     maximum wind gusts of 95 km/h equate to 10-min winds of 35 kts and 
     1-minute winds of 40 kts.    JTWC issued their first warning at 
     25/0900 UTC, giving 1-minute winds of 35 kts.

  2. General Description of Track:  Kara tracked generally west to west-
     southwestwards along the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge 
     until about 25/1700 UTC, then turned southwards as a mid-latitude 
     trough to the south-west created a weakness in the ridge.  While
     tracking southwards it intensified rapidly, reaching its peak 
     intensity of 85 kts (10-min) at 26/0800 UTC (as per the BoM public 
     advisory issued 26/0850).  JTWC's 26/0900 UTC warning forecast a very
     sharp turn eastward as the subtropical ridge broke down under the 
     influence of the approaching trough. This happened almost immediately,
     and by 26/1700 UTC Kara was moving to the east-southeast, and 
     continued moving erratically east-southeast to southeastward until 
     landfall.  

     Shortly after turning eastwards, Kara encountered increasing 
     vertical wind shear and began to weaken rapidly.  At landfall just 
     east of Wallal (27/2000 UTC) Kara was only a marginal TC, and like 
     its predecessor Jacob, it dissipated soon after it struck.  (Editor's
     Note: The remnant LOW of Kara drifted back northward over the Timor
     Sea and meandered for a few days in the area southwest and west of
     Broome without showing any signs of re-generation.  The track listing
     and track graphic do not contain this remnant LOW stage.)
     

  C. Meteorological Data
  ----------------------

        There were no reports of gale-force winds or significant low SLP's 
     from Kara, partly because it was small and made landfall in a 
     sparsely-populated area, but also because the offshore sites nearest 
     Kara's path were out of action during its passage. 

        As with Jacob, Kara's chief effect was rainfall.  However, unlike 
     Jacob, the remnants persisted for several days and affected a larger 
     area (Kimberley and Pilbara).  24-hour rainfalls for each of 27 - 30 
     March were typically in the 25-75 mm range, with isolated heavier 
     recordings.  Pardoo's 285 mm (Pilbara - 27 March) was the highest 
     overall, but Mandora (Pilbara - 28 March) with 197 mm and Warmun 
     (Kimberley - 30 March) with 155 mm were also notable.  Though no other
     site recorded over 100 mm, rainfall was enough to cause significant 
     flooding in the Fitzroy and Margaret Rivers during the next several 
     days. 
     

  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

        This author has not received any reports of damage or casualties 
     attributable to TC Kara.  However, Kara did force the closure of Port
     Hedland's seaport at noon (WDT) 27 March, and Fortescue Metals Group 
     had to evacuate its mining camps for the second time in three weeks.
     The threat from Kara also helped to highlight safety issues at 
     another of FMG's rail-camps, and the company was officially ordered 
     to make the camp safe by May.


  E. Additional Discussion
  ------------------------

        Post-analysis carried-out by BoM resulted in Kara's peak intensity 
     (27 March/0300 UTC) being raised from 85 kts to 105 kts, which equates
     to a 1-minute wind speed of 120 kts and a Dvorak T6.0, possibly even 
     6.5.  Kara's rapid intensification on 26 - 27 March (T3.0 - T6.0 
     in 24 hours) also broke normal Dvorak constraints.  As the analyst 
     said, "Kara was an interesting midget...that [stretched] the Dvorak 
     technique to its limits". 

  (Report written by Matthew Saxby)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for March:  1 tropical LOW **
                       1 tropical cyclone ++

  ** - system moved east of 160E where it later became a tropical cyclone

  ++ - system not classified as tropical cyclone by JTWC


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Northeast Australia/Coral Sea tropical cyclones are the warnings
  and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at
  Brisbane, Queensland, and Darwin, Northern Territory, and on very
  infrequent occasions, by the centre at Port Moresby, Papua New
  Guinea.  References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging
  period unless otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor-
  dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings are also the
  source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included
  in the tracks file.   Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.


                       Northeast Australia/Coral Sea
                        Tropical Activity for March
                       -----------------------------

     A tropical LOW which formed late in February strengthened in early
  March into Tropical Cyclone Odette, which was a tropical cyclone of
  minimal intensity for only about 30 hours.  The system meandered about
  on a highly erratic track for several days well east of the Queensland
  coast.  Odette exhibited more characteristics of a monsoon depression
  than a classic tropical cyclone, and likely for this reason no warnings
  were issued for this system by JTWC.   There were several reports of
  gale-force winds from ships--one even up to 56 kts--and most of these
  ranged from 100 to almost 300 nm from Odette's center.  A report on
  Tropical Cyclone Odette, written by Simon Clarke, follows.

     A tropical LOW which formed on 25 March near 12.0S/157.5E moved
  eastward across 160E into Nadi's AOR where it strengthened and became
  Tropical Cyclone Becky on the 26th.  A report on Becky may be found
  in the section covering the South Pacific basin.



                         TROPICAL CYCLONE ODETTE
                             (NRL Invest 93P)
                          26 February - 7 March
               -------------------------------------------

  A. General Information
  ----------------------

  1. Identification

     a. RSMC - BoM Brisbane
     b. NAME - Odette (named by BoM Brisbane at Mar 03/0000 UTC)

  2. Overview

     a. Basins Affected:  Northeast Australia/Coral Sea (AUE)
     b. Dates:            26 February - 7 March, 2007
     c. Max Sust Winds:   35 kts (10-min avg per BoM Brisbane)
     d. Min Cent Press:   990 hPa (estimate per BoM Brisbane)

  3. Beginning of Track:  Feb 26/1700 UTC, near 12.7S/153.8E, or about
     550 nm east-northeast of Cape Melville, Queensland, as referenced
     in initial gale warning issued by BoM Brisbane.

  4. Peak Intensity:  Mar 03/0000 UTC, near 16.6S/154.8E, or about 515 nm
     east of Cairns, Queensland.  (It should be noted that BoM Brisbane's
     MSW was at 35 kts from 03/0000 through 04/0600 UTC.)

  5. Size:  Based on BoM Brisbane's warnings, at its peak Tropical Cyclone
     Odette was a large, albeit weak, cyclone with gales extending outward
     up to 240 nm from the center.

  6. End of Track:  Mar 07/0000 UTC, near 16.6S/159.4E, or about 65 nm
     northeast of the Chesterfield Islands.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

  1. Origin:  Odette originated within a developing monsoon trough that had
     become established across the northern Coral Sea by 24 February with 
     two low-pressure circulations forming:  one to the northeast of 
     Cooktown and the other and more dominant LOW to the south of the 
     Solomon Islands.  This easternmost LOW moved to the west at 5 kts and 
     developed a band of gale-force winds primarily on its eastern flank. 
     At one stage it was suggested that the two circulations would merge 
     into one new cyclone.  However, with time, the easternmost LOW 
     continued to dominate, eventually absorbing the LOW to the northeast 
     of Cooktown into its outermost circulation.  All the while this LOW 
     was subject to very strong upper-level northwesterly wind shear 
     (40 kts plus) which completely exposed the LLCC (which could be 
     clearly seen in visible satellite imagery from time to time.  By 
     2 March the LOW had become stranded in the central Coral Sea in a 
     region of weak steering influence.  The LLCC gradually turned to the 
     east before looping back to the southwest, eventually looping back 
     through the northwest and then west.  At 03/0000 UTC the Low was 
     named Odette based on a ship’s observation.  Odette was located near 
     16.6S/154.8E (approximately 430 nm ENE of Bowen) at this time and 
     almost stationary.  

  2. General Description of Track:  There were no strong steering 
     influences affecting Odette and it drifted only a short distance to 
     the west-northwest during its fleeting life as a named cyclone.  
     Odette was a sheared system throughout its entire life with its LLCC 
     exposed most of the time.  No lasting CDO ever developed close to 
     Odette’s LLCC with the most significant rains and gales displaced to 
     the eastern side of the system.  The cyclone was downgraded at 04/0600
     UTC near 16.2S/155.5E (approximately 565 nm ENE of Cairns) with the 
     remnant LOW continuing to drift slowly in an easterly direction.  On 
     6 March, the ex-cyclone showed some signs of regeneration as the 
     system moved to the south-southeast and into more favourable 
     environmental conditions.  However, this regeneration proved to be 
     short-lived as the system continued on to the east, eventually 
     dissipating just west of 160E.
     
          
  C. Meteorological Data
  ----------------------

     Jeff Callaghan of BoM Brisbane has sent a list of all ship 
  observations which reported gales in association with Tropical Cyclone 
  Odette or the pre-Odette LOW.   The more significant ones are listed 
  below (all assumed to be 10-min avg winds):

  (1)	At 01 March/1500 UTC ship VJNV reported 080/56 kts from a 
        position 125 nm at an azimuth of 120 deg from the LOW’s center.

  (2)	At 01 March/2000 UTC the same ship reported 080/42 kts from a 
        position 125 nm at an azimuth of 111 deg from the LOW’s center.

  (3)	At 02 March/0000 UTC ship PCKU reported 290/41 kts from a 
        position 295 nm almost due north of the LOW’s center.

  (4)	At 03 March/0000 UTC ship A8HJ4 reported 350/41 kts from a 
        position 120 nm at an azimuth of 73 deg from Odette’s center.  
        (It was at this hour the system was upgraded to TC Odette.)

  (5)	At 04 March/0000 UTC ship MARU reported 020/40 kts from a 
        position 75 nm at an azimuth of 212 deg from Odette’s center.  
        (The ship actually reported 80 kts, but it was felt that 40 kts 
        was the intended reading.)

  (6)	At 01 March/1200 UTC the Marion Reef AWS reported 090/38 kts with 
        the station at this time being located 110 nm at an azimuth of 
        148 deg from the pre-Odette LOW’s center.

     A special thanks to Jeff for sending the reports.


  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     There were no significant impacts associated with Odette.

     However, there was much local media interest in the system over 
  several days due to the large size of the system’s developing 
  circulation.  At one stage it was thought that Odette might even track 
  toward the southern coast of Queensland, thereby having the potential to 
  break the extremely severe drought affecting that part of the State.  
  However, the strong shear affecting the system ensured that the 
  strongest winds and any rains were kept on the eastern side of the 
  system well out to sea. As the system lost cyclone status and drifted 
  farther out to sea, hopes of a major rain event were dashed. 

     Nonetheless, the cyclone brought large ocean swells to beaches in 
  central and southern Queensland with the big seas keeping lifesavers 
  busy.  Dozens of people from Coolangatta to Southport were rescued, 
  while large swells challenged competitors at the Queensland Surf Life 
  Saving Championships at Kawana on the Sunshine Coast.
   
  (Report written by Simon Clarke, except that Section C was added by
  Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for March:  1 tropical LOW with associated gales **
                       1 tropical depression
                       1 tropical cyclone of storm intensity

  ** - gale warnings were issued for this LOW, but it was not classified
       as a tropical depression by Fiji


                           Sources of Information
                           ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories
  issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for
  waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for
  waters south of latitude 25S).  References to sustained winds imply
  a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere
  centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings
  are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  values included in the tracks file.    Additionally, information
  describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation
  features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC
  warnings.


                  South Pacific Tropical Activity for March
                  -----------------------------------------

     Three systems were tracked by RSMC Nadi during March.  The first was
  a tropical LOW well east of the Dateline early in the month.  The system
  was first referenced in Nadi's Tropical Disturbance Summary issued at
  0907 UTC on 8 March when it was located near 20.0S/173.0W, or well south
  of Samoa, in a moderate to strongly sheared environment.   Gale warnings
  were initiated at 09/0000 UTC for a region of associated peripheral
  gales.  The LOW continued to move slowly east-southeastward, and by the
  time of issuance of the final gale warning at 10/1800 UTC, it was located
  near 26.0S/153.5W, or far to the south-southwest of Tahiti.   This system
  was never classified as a tropical depression by Nadi.    Given its
  latitude of formation, it possibly was not fully tropical.  No track was
  included for this system in the companion cyclone tracks file.

     Tropical Depression 12F formed on 21 March to the north-northwest of
  Fiji, being located near 14.2S/174.2E at 21/2030 UTC.  Over the next
  several days TD-12F moved on a slow, generally southerly track which kept
  it to the west of the Fijian islands.  The depression was forecast to
  reach tropical cyclone intensity, and in anticipation of that, gale
  warnings were issued from 22/0000 through 22/1800 UTC, but were
  discontinued after that point due to the system becoming less organized.
  TD-12F continued southward, finally losing its identity on the 26th
  a few hundred miles south-southwest of Nadi.

     TD-12F was very possibly a tropical storm based on a 1-min avg MSW.
  Dvorak ratings on the 22nd and 23rd reached T2.5/2.5 from AFWA, CPHC,
  Nadi and Brisbane.   However, JTWC never ranked the system stronger than
  T2.0/2.0; hence, no warnings were issued by that agency.  The depression
  apparently became better organized for a time on the 24th, as CPHC's
  Dvorak ratings reached T3.0/3.0 on that date; also, SAB gave the system
  its highest ranking of T2.5/2.5 on the 24th.  A track file was included
  for this system in the companion cyclone tracks file, and a track
  graphic is available on John Diebolt’s website.

     The third system of the month in the South Pacific basin was Tropical
  Depression 13F, which moved eastward from Brisbane's AOR and intensified
  into Tropical Storm Becky.  Becky intensified to near hurricane force
  as it tracked south-southeastward just west of the islands of Vanuatu.
  A report on Becky follows.

     One final item--the previous numbered system in the South Pacific
  basin (based on Fiji's 'F' numbering scheme) prior to Tropical Depression
  12F was Tropical Depression 09F very early in February (also tracked as
  TC-11P by JTWC).   I have been asked by more than one person what
  happened to '10F' and '11F'.     I receive all of Nadi's bulletins,
  warnings, advisories, etc and scan them closely.  I never saw any
  reference to systems with those missing numbers.  Two possibilities come
  to mind:

  (1) The numbers were allotted for internal office use to two systems (the
      likely candidates being the tropical LOW of 8-10 March discussed
      above, and the ex-TC Odette tropical LOW which almost moved across
      160E on 7 March and which Nadi referenced in some Tropical 
      Disturbance Summaries) but were never included in any public or 
      marine warning products.

  (2) An inadvertent numbering error was made when TD-12F developed which
      was not corrected.

     If I should ever learn the answer to this question, I shall relate it
  in a future summary.



                          TROPICAL CYCLONE BECKY
                             (TD-13F / TC-21P)
                               25 - 31 March
                ------------------------------------------

  A. General Information
  ----------------------

  1. Identification

     a. RSMC - BoM Brisbane/Nadi, Fiji, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
     b. Fiji - Tropical Disturbance 13F (East of 160E)
     c. JTWC - Tropical Cyclone 21P
     d. NAME - Becky (named by Fiji at Mar 26/1800 UTC)

  2. Overview

     a. Basins Affected:  Northeast Australia/Coral Sea (AUE)
                          South Pacific Ocean (SPA)
     b. Dates:            25 - 31 March, 2007
     c. Max Sust Winds:   60 kts (10-min avg per Fiji)
                          70 kts (1-min avg per JTWC)
     d. Min Cent Press:   975 hPa (estimate per Fiji)

  3. Beginning of Track:  Mar 25/0000 UTC, near 12.0S/157.5E, or about
     200 nm southwest of Honiara, Solomon Islands, as referenced in initial
     gale warning issued by BoM Brisbane.

  4. Peak Intensity:  Mar 27/1200 UTC, near 15.9S/166.3E, or about 150 nm
     northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  (It should be noted that Fiji's MSW
     was at 60 kts from 27/1200 through 29/1800 UTC.)

  5. Size:  Based on Fiji's warnings, at its peak Tropical Cyclone Becky
     was an average-sized cyclone with gales extending outward from the
     center 80 nm to the northwest and 120 nm to the southeast.  However,
     JTWC's warnings described a smaller system with gale radii ranging
     from 65-70 nm.

  6. End of Track:  Mar 31/1800 UTC, near 22.0S/163.0E, or about 200 nm
     west of Noumea, New Caledonia.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

  1. Origin:  BoM Brisbane issued a gale warning at 0000 UTC on 25 March
     for a tropical LOW centered approximately 200 nm southwest of Honiara
     on Guadalcanal in the Solomon Islands.   Peak winds were estimated
     at 30 kts but gales were forecast to gradually develop.  A STWO issued
     by JTWC at 0600 UTC noted that the LLCC was consolidating with weak
     convective banding present.  The disturbance lay under an upper-level
     ridge axis with low vertical shear and favorable poleward and
     equatorward diffluence.  The system began to drift eastward and by
     1800 UTC the same day had moved east of 160E into Fiji's AOR where it
     received the designation Tropical Depression 13F.   About the same
     time JTWC upgraded the potential for development to 'fair'.  The final
     warning issued by Brisbane at 25/1800 UTC noted that gales had
     developed in the northern quadrants.

     By early on the 26th TD-13F was beginning to track slightly east-
     southeastward due to the influence of a near-equatorial ridge located
     to the northeast.  A 26/0740 UTC QuikScat pass showed a well-defined
     LLCC with winds of at least 35 kts with deep convective banding
     wrapping into the LLCC.  JTWC issued the first warning on TC-21P
     at 26/1200 UTC, and at 1800 UTC Nadi upgraded the depression to
     Tropical Cyclone Becky, centered about 300 nm southeast of Honiara
     and moving to the east-southeast at about 7 kts.  The intensity
     was estimated at 40 kts.

  2. General Description of Track:  The newly-christened cyclone's track
     became increasingly southeasterly and eventually south-southeasterly
     as it was steered by an extension of the near-equatorial ridge to its
     east and a high-amplitude trough to its west.  Becky approached the
     islands of Vanuatu but the south-southeasterly track kept the center
     to the west of the main islands.   The cyclone reached its peak MSW
     of 60 kts at 1200 UTC on 27 March, maintaining that intensity for
     30 hours.  The minimum estimated CP was 975 hPa.  JTWC's estimated
     1-min avg MSW reached a peak of 70 kts at 28/1200 UTC, shortly before
     rapid weakening set in due to a significant increase in vertical shear
     and the entrainment of some drier air.   Between 28/1200 and 29/0000
     UTC Becky's MSW dropped from 60 kts to 35 kts, and six hours later
     Nadi downgraded the system to a tropical depression with the exposed
     center located east of New Caledonia.   By 29/1200 UTC all the deep
     convection had disappeared and JTWC issued their final warning.  Fiji
     continued to track the weak remnants southwestward across the island
     of New Caledonia.  The final reference to the system at 31/1800 UTC
     placed the very weak center approximately 200 nm west of Noumea.


  C. Meteorological Data
  ----------------------

     No meteorological observations taken in association with Tropical
  Cyclone Becky have been received.


  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Cyclone
  Becky have been received.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

         SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION

     The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
  varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived.  Many readers
  will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
  I wanted to include them. 

  (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
  ---------------------------------------

     Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
  retrieved from the following FTP site:

     ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>

     Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
  messages may be found at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>

  Links are also included to websites with further information about the
  U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
  craft Operations Center.

  (2) Archived Advisories
  -----------------------

     All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
  strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
  are archived on TPC's website.  For the current year (using 2004 as an
  example), the archived products can be found at:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>

  Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
  the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>

  JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:

     http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.

     I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
  its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
  if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.

  (3) Satellite Imagery
  ---------------------

     Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
  available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
  courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates.  The
  links are:

     http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>

     http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.  For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is 
  located in the lower left portion of the screen.

     Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
  composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
  equator, can be found at:

  (1) For the Eastern North Pacific:

     http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html>

  (2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:

     http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html>

     I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
  as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.

  *************************************************************************

                                EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  *************************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
  Landsea, and John Diebolt):

    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
    http://mpittweather.com>
    ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
    http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>


     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
    

                    TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
  Report (ATCR) for 2005 (2004-2005 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.

     The URL is:  https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php>


     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2006 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2006 Atlantic
  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
  track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. 

     The URL is:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>


     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  PREPARED BY

  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  Kevin Boyle  (Northwest Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Simon Clarke  (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  *************************************************************************
  *************************************************************************

Document: summ0703.htm
Updated: 26th May 2007

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