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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary November 2006
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                    MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                                NOVEMBER, 2006

  NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR: Almost two years ago I began including links to 
  track graphics prepared by John Diebolt of Tucson, Arizona, and archived
  on his tropical cyclone website.  A few months back John experienced a 
  disk crash which resulted in a error.  He had to request assistance from
  the programmer who had written the map-generation software, but so far 
  has not been able to get the problem solved.   As a convenience to users,
  I've also recently been including links to the individual tabular tracks,
  prepared by myself, which John had archived on his website.  Now, due to
  family concerns, John has not had time to place the tracks for recent
  cyclones on the website.  I have checked the websites listed at the end
  of the summaries and found that the entire November track file has been
  archived on two of them.  The links are:

  http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2007/trak0611.htm>

  http://www.typhoon2000.ph/garyp_mgtcs/nov06tks.txt>

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  *************************************************************************

                             NOVEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

   --> Eastern North Pacific unusually active for November
   --> Two intense typhoons strike Luzon--one very deadly
   --> Second South Pacific hurricane of season forms
   --> Very interesting tropical or subtropical storm forms near 40N
       in Central North Pacific

  *************************************************************************
  
                              ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for November:  1 tropical depression
                          1 possible tropical or subtropical storm **
                          1 tropical storm
                          1 hurricane

  ** - no tropical cyclone warnings issued on this system


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
  Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
  locations west of longitude 140W):  discussions, public advisories,
  forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
  disturbance statements, etc.  Some additional information may have
  been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
  specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website.  All references to
  sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
  noted.


              Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for November
              ------------------------------------------------

     Following are some statistics for the Northeast Pacific basin during
  the month of November:

                                      November         Average
        Parameter                       2006         1971 - 2005
        --------------------------------------------------------
        Named Storms (NS)                2               0.3
        Hurricanes (H)                   1               0.1
        Intense Hurricanes (IH)          0                0
        Named Storm Days (NSD)          6.00             1.0
        Hurricane Days (HD)             1.75             0.2
        Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)     0                0

     As can be seen from the above chart, overall tropical cyclone activity
  in the Northeast Pacific basin during November was greatly above the
  average for the month, being over 5 times the level normally seen during
  the month of November.  Considering just the portion of the basin lying
  east of 140W, 2006 was the first time since 1961 that two named storms
  formed in the Eastern North Pacific.  Sergio was only the fourth known
  November hurricane in the basin since at least 1960, the others being
  Tara (1961), Nora (1991), and Rick (1997).  (Hurricane Iwa formed in
  the Central North Pacific region in November, 1982.)    Had Sergio
  intensified only 5 kts more, it would have become the first November
  Category 3 hurricane in the Eastern North Pacific.  Since the beginning
  of the satellite era, only two intense hurricanes (Cat. 3+ on the Saffir/
  Simpson scale) have formed outside the June-October period:  Adolph in
  2001 and Alma in 2002, both in the month of May.  (Hurricane Ekeka in 
  January-February, 1992, became an intense hurricane in the Central North
  Pacific.)

     Rosa was the first named November cyclone to form in the month of
  November since Tropical Storm Rosa in 2000.  Between Rosa and Sergio
  a very short-lived tropical depression (TC-20E) formed and dissipated
  on 11 November several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
  The official TPC/NHC report on this depression, as well as reports on 
  all the 2006 systems, may be found at the following URL:

  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2006epac.shtml>

     Brief reports follow on Rosa and Sergio.  Also included is a report
  on an unusual system of higher-latitude origin which formed over the
  Central North Pacific at the end of October and appeared to make the
  transition from a subtropical to tropical cyclone.

     Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all
  the Northeast Pacific systems may be found at the following link:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_hurricane_season>



                         POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
                             (NRL Invest 91C)
                          30 October - 3 November
               ---------------------------------------------

  A. Introduction
  ---------------

     Every once in awhile nature throws something unexpected at us.  This
  is very true in the realm of tropical cyclones.  Since I have been
  writing these summaries for the past almost 10 years, I've had the
  privilege to cover several "firsts" in tropical cyclone climatology:

  (1) A fully-developed typhoon only 90 nm north of the equator--Typhoon
      Vamei near Singapore in December, 2001;

  (2) A tropical storm only 40 nm north of the equator and whose parent
      disturbance could be observed migrating from north of the equator
      to just south of the equator, and thence back into the Northern
      Hemisphere while maintaining a counter-clockwise circulation--
      Tropical Cyclone Agni in the Arabian Sea in November, 2004;

  (3) The first observed hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean--the
      destructive Cyclone Catarina which struck Brazil in March, 2004;

  (4) The first known tropical cyclone to make four landfalls in
      Australia--Cyclone Steve in February-March, 2000, which practically
      circumnavigated the continent, and either as a tropical cyclone or
      during its extratropical stages, caused gales in every Australian
      state except New South Wales;

  (5) A fantastically active and vigorous Atlantic hurricane season which
      makes the very active seasons of 1933 and 1995 look almost tame by
      comparison and which featured four Category 5 hurricanes, including
      the lowest observed central SLP in an Atlantic hurricane--882 mb in
      Hurricane Wilma in October, 2005.

     In early November, another very unusual occurrence was observed in
  subtropical latitudes of the Central North Pacific ocean.   A system
  with typical subtropical cyclone characteristics formed and evolved into
  what appeared to be a tropical cyclone in an area which has always been
  considered "off limits" to tropical cyclones.  In an attempt to expedite
  the preparation of this summary, I will summarize the synoptic history
  of the system, and then follow that with some discussion gleaned from
  e-mails prompted by the storm.

     For the history of the storm, I am following a track and intensities
  compiled and sent by Dr. Karl Hoarau of Cergy-Pontoise University, Paris.
  NRL opened an invest on the system and numbered it '91C', so I am using
  that as an ID for the storm.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

     Storm '91C' appeared to form in a manner similar to many subtropical
  systems seen in the North Atlantic with a cold upper-level cut-off LOW
  moving over relatively "warm" SSTs of around 20 C coincident with the
  first appearance of a closed surface LOW and with the warm lower-level
  core supported by convection.  (This information from Mark Guishard,
  Director of the Bermuda Weather Surface.)  Based upon Karl's track, a
  25-kt LOW with subtropical characteristics was located approximately
  1000 nm northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii, at 0600 UTC on 30 October.
  The LOW initially moved eastward, gradually curving to the northeast.
  By 1200 UTC on 31 October '91C' had reached a position near 39.8N/142.4W
  and had taken on a more tropical appearance with an eye feature visible.
  At this juncture the system curved rather sharply back to the north-
  northwest and by early on 1 November was moving almost due westward.

     At 1200 UTC on 1 November '91C' had reached a point approximately
  1400 nm northeast of Honolulu.  An eye was clearly visible and convection
  was deepest around this time.  Karl estimates that the system reached
  a peak intensity of 55 kts at 1200 UTC before beginning to slowly weaken.
  After 01/1800 UTC the storm turned abruptly to the southeast and then
  eastward, completing a counter-clockwise loop shortly after 02/0600 UTC.
  The eye was still visible at this time, but shortly thereafter shear
  increased and convection began to quickly disappear.  The LOW began to
  rapidly weaken as it accelerated to the east-northeast.  The final entry
  in Karl's track places a 30-kt non-convective remnant LOW about 450 nm
  west of Coos Bay, Oregon, around 0000 UTC on 3 November.

     Since no operational warnings were issued for this system (except
  for marine warnings issued by OPC), I have included below the track
  for '91C' which I prepared for the companion global cyclone tracks
  file:

  Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: NEP
  (NRL Invest - 91C / System was a subtropical/possible tropical cyclone)

     Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
            (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                   (mb) (kts) (kts)
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------

  06 OCT 30 0600  36.0 N  149.1 W         25        Subtropical
  06 OCT 30 1200  35.7 N  147.7 W         25
  06 OCT 30 1800  36.6 N  145.4 W         30
  06 OCT 31 0000  37.6 N  143.8 W         35
  06 OCT 31 0600  38.5 N  142.9 W         45        Eye feature/more trop.
  06 0CT 31 1200  39.8 N  142.4 W         40
  06 OCT 31 1800  40.9 N  142.8 W         45
  06 NOV 01 0000  42.2 N  143.5 W         45        Eye visible
  06 NOV 01 0600  42.8 N  144.7 W         50
  06 NOV 01 1200  42.9 N  145.9 W         55        Deepest convection
  06 NOV 01 1800  42.5 N  146.4 W         50
  06 NOV 02 0000  41.8 N  145.7 W         50
  06 NOV 02 0600  41.7 N  143.8 W         50        Eye still visible
  06 NOV 02 1200  42.0 N  140.3 W         45
  06 NOV 02 1800  42.5 N  137.7 W         35        Sheared
  06 NOV 03 0000  43.5 N  134.5 W         30        Convection absent

  Note: The positions, intensities and comments above were kindly provided
  by Dr. Karl Hoarau of Cergy-Pontoise University, Paris.  A special thanks
  to Karl for creating a track for this interesting system.


  C. Additional Discussion
  ------------------------

     Disturbance '91C' was not entirely without historical precedent, rare
  though it was.  In late August/early September, 1975, a tropical cyclone
  was tracked at fairly high latitudes in the Central North Pacific,
  becoming a tropical storm at 32.0N/159.0W and reaching hurricane
  intensity at 40.0N/156.0W.   The Eastern North Pacific seasonal summary
  prepared by the staff of the former Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center
  in San Francisco noted that there was a possibility that the hurricane
  formed from the remnants of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Ilsa, which had
  dissipated as a tropical cyclone several days earlier well east of 140W.
  Since the Central Pacific storm was not named, likely no operational
  warnings were issued, except for perhaps ordinary marine warnings.  It
  is not known to the author exactly when this system was added to the
  Eastern/Central North Pacific "best tracks" database.

     With systems of this nature there is always a fair amount of
  discussion generated regarding its nature and classification.  Clark
  Evans of the Department of Meteorology at Florida State University notes
  that the cyclone phase space from the various model solutions were in
  good agreement on the thermal structure of the cyclone, that being a
  reasonably symmetric low-level warm core and a neutral thermal structure
  aloft--consistent with a subtropical storm or possibly a shallow tropical
  cyclone.   Mark Guishard of the Bermuda Weather Service was of the
  opinion that by 2 November the system had undergone tropical transition.
  Mark Lander noted that cloud tops in '91C' were between 35,000 and 40,000
  feet with temperatures between -42 and -53 C.  In Mark's opinion this
  system was not very different from some of the tropical cyclones seen in
  the Atlantic the previous season, Hurricane Vince in particular.

     There were a couple of obs associated with '91C' worth mentioning.
  According to Derrick Herndon of CIMSS, a number of buoys in the region
  indicated a very large area of SLPs below 1000 mb.  The center appeared
  to pass within 45 nm of buoy 46637 which reported a pressure of 989 mb
  (no winds from the buoy) at 01/1300 UTC.  This represented a drop of
  10 mb in 13 hours.  Since the center was about 36 nm to the south at
  the time of the observation, the pressure could have been a little lower.
  Mark Lander noted that a QuikScat pass at approximately 0400 UTC on
  2 November depicted winds of at least 45 kts within the storm.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                            TROPICAL STORM ROSA
                                 (TC-19E)
                              8 - 10 November
                  ---------------------------------------

     Tropical Storm Rosa was the first Eastern North Pacific tropical
  storm to form in the month of November since 2000.  (The 2000 storm,
  coincidentally, was also named Rosa.)  Rosa's progenitor seems to have
  been a tropical wave which left the west coast of Africa on 22 October.
  The wave remained weak while crossing the Atlantic, but after crossing
  into the Pacific on 3 November, convective activity began to increase.
  A broad low-pressure area formed several hundred miles south of the Gulf
  of Tehuantepec on the 5th.  Convection remained disorganized for a day
  or so, but began to increase on the 7th and Dvorak classifications were
  begun.   Deep convection significantly increased shortly after 0000 UTC
  on 8 November and the system was upgraded to Tropical Depression 19E
  at 0600 UTC while located about 385 nm south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

     The system moved slowly northwestward throughout its existence and
  was hampered by southwesterly shear.  Although it appeared weaker later
  on the 8th, convection re-formed near the center early on 9 November
  and it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Rosa at 0600 UTC while centered
  about 260 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo.  However, further intensi-
  fication was halted by the strong shear and Rosa remained a minimal
  tropical storm for only 18 hours.  The storm weakened into a tropical
  depression at 10/0000 UTC and became an open trough later that day
  about 215 nm southwest of Manzanillo.

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Storm Rosa.

     This report is largely based upon the official TPC/NHC storm report,
  authored by Daniel P. Brown.  The report can be accessed at:

  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2006epac.shtml>



                              HURRICANE SERGIO
                                  (TC-21E)
                              14 - 20 November
                    ------------------------------------

     Hurricane Sergio was the strongest Eastern North Pacific hurricane
  for so late in the season, and was the longest-lasting November tropical
  cyclone on record for the basin.  A tropical wave crossed southern
  Central America and entered the Eastern Pacific on 7 November.  An area
  of associated showers and cloudiness moved slowly westward for several
  days.  By 12 November convective activity became more concentrated
  over an area roughly 350 nm to the south of Acapulco, Mexico, and Dvorak
  classifications were initiated.   The system had developed sufficient
  organization by 1800 UTC on 13 November to be designated as Tropical
  Depression 21E while centered about 400 nm south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

     The storm initially moved northwestward, but soon stalled while
  strengthening into Tropical Storm Sergio on the 14th.   Sergio then
  turned toward the southeast, apparently due to the flow associated with
  a mid to upper-level trough to its northeast, while continuing to
  intensify.  The storm became a hurricane on 15 November while situated
  within a favorable environment of light vertical shear, anticyclonic
  outflow aloft, and a generally moist troposphere.  Hurricane Sergio
  quickly strengthened, reaching its peak intensity of 95 kts around
  15/1800 UTC, exhibiting a very small and distinct eye.  After peaking
  in intensity, Sergio turned toward the northeast and then north-northeast
  and began to weaken as westerly shear increased over the cyclone.  By
  early on 17 November the LLCC had become partially-exposed on the western
  side of the circulation and the hurricane was downgraded to a tropical
  storm at 17/0600 UTC.   Over the next few days high pressure built to
  the north and northeast of Sergio and it meandered around in several
  directions, ultimately moving to the west-southwest.  Deep convection
  re-formed near the center on the 18th and Sergio re-intensified
  slightly, but the weakening trend soon resumed and the storm had weakened
  into a tropical depression by 20/0000 UTC.  Later that day the cyclone
  dissipated about 300 nm southwest of Manzanillo as the LLCC became
  elongated along a cyclonic shear axis.

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Hurricane
  Sergio.

     This report is largely based upon the official TPC/NHC storm report,
  authored by Richard J. Pasch and David P. Roberts.  The report can be
  accessed at:

  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2006epac.shtml>

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for November:  1 subtropical storm **
                          1 typhoon
                          1 super typhoon

  ** - no tropical cyclone warnings issued on this system


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).  A very special thanks to Michael for the
  assistance he so reliably provides.
  
      In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.


              Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for November
              ------------------------------------------------

     As the month of November opened, Typhoon Cimaron was spinning in the
  South China Sea after striking northern Luzon as a super typhoon.   The
  storm subsequently began to weaken as it drifted around in the Sea and
  had dissipated by the 6th.  The complete report on Typhoon Cimaron
  (known as Typhoon Paeng in the Philippines) may be found in the October
  summary.

     Two other major typhoons formed during the month, and like their
  immediate predecessor, struck the Philippines as strong typhoons.  The
  first, Typhoon Chebi/Queenie, followed a path across northern Luzon very
  similar to that taken by Cimaron/Paeng.  Like the earlier storm, Chebi
  was rather small and made landfall in a fairly unpopulated area and
  did not leave behind a large loss of life.  Super Typhoon Durian/Reming,
  however, followed a more southern track across southern Luzon and was
  very deadly, being responsible for more than 700 fatalities.  Reports on
  these two typhoons, authored by Kevin Boyle, follow.

     A short report is also included on a system which appeared to be a
  subtropical storm early in the month over waters between Wake Island
  and the Dateline.

     The online Wikipedia reports for the Northwestern Pacific cyclones may
  be accessed at the following URL:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_typhoon_season>



                         POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
                               (SAB Invest 99W)
                                6 - 9 November
               ------------------------------------------------

     A cyclonic system in the eastern portion of the Northwest Pacific
  basin in early November received Dvorak tropical classifications and
  subtropical classifications based on the Hebert-Poteat method by SAB.
  This system appeared to be a rather typical subtropical storm which
  formed from an occluded cyclone.  JMA began issuing gale warnings for
  the system at 0600 UTC on 6 November when the system was located about
  900 nm northeast of Wake Island.  Late on the 6th QuikScat data was
  received indicating winds of 45-50 kts.  SAB initiated Hebert-Poteat
  classifications on the system at 06/2030 UTC.  The agency requested
  JTWC to open a formal invest number for the system, but JTWC refused
  to do so.  Therefore, SAB applied the number '99W' to the cyclone
  in all their bulletins.

     The system moved slowly in a generally southwestward direction.
  By 07/2030 UTC, at which time SAB assigned a ST3.0 rating, the center
  was located about 875 nm northeast of Wake Island.  The winds began
  to slowly weaken throughout the 7th and 8th.  At 07/2030 UTC, SAB
  began classifying the system using Dvorak tropical T-numbers, rendering
  a T2.5/2.5.   By 2030 UTC on 8 November '99W' had reached a point
  about 500 nm northeast of Wake Island and SAB's Dvorak estimate had
  dropped to T1.5/2.0, and based on the JMA High Seas Bulletins, winds
  had dropped below gale force.  JMA continued to track the weakening
  system southwestward, finally dropping it after 1800 UTC on the 9th
  when it was located about 200 nm east-northeast of Wake Island.

     Karl Hoarau expressed the opinion that the system was not a tropical
  cyclone, but rather a typical subtropical storm.  David Roth of HPC
  reported that the cyclone phase space based on the GFS showed '99W' as
  a shallow, symmetric warm-core system, which is consistent with a
  subtropical storm.   David noted that on 7 November, when the cyclone
  was located over 23-24 C SSTs, that thunderstorms had broken out on
  the northern side of the center and that the depth of convection was
  greater than what was typical for an occluded cyclone.

     Since no operational warnings were issued for this system (other than
  the JMA warnings), I have included below the track I prepared for '99W'
  for the companion global cyclone tracks file:

  Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: NWP
  (SAB Invest - 99W / System was likely a typical subtropical cyclone)

     Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
            (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                   (mb) (kts) (kts)
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------

  06 NOV 06 0600  33.0 N  173.0 E  1002         35  JMA warnings
  06 NOV 06 1200  32.0 N  174.0 E  1004         35
  06 NOV 06 1800  32.0 N  175.0 E  1000         40
  06 NOV 06 2030  31.6 N  175.2 E  1000   50    40  SAB satellite bulletins
  06 NOV 07 0230  31.2 N  175.5 E  1000   50    45  ST3.0
  06 NOV 07 0830  30.8 N  175.7 E  1000   45    45  ST2.5
  06 NOV 07 1430  30.1 N  176.5 E  1000   45    45  ST3.0
  06 NOV 07 2030  29.7 N  176.1 E  1000   40    45  T2.5/2.5
  06 NOV 08 0230  28.6 N  175.6 E  1000   40    45  T2.5/2.5   
  06 NOV 08 0830  27.6 N  175.2 E  1004   35    40  T2.0/2.5
  06 NOV 08 1430  26.3 N  174.2 E  1006   35    35  T2.0/2.5
  06 NOV 08 2030  25.0 N  173.2 E  1006   30    30  T1.5/2.0
  06 NOV 09 0000  24.0 N  173.0 E  1006         25  JMA bulletins
  06 NOV 09 0600  23.0 N  172.0 E  1006         25
  06 NOV 09 1200  22.0 N  171.0 E  1006         25
  06 NOV 09 1800  20.0 N  170.0 E  1008         20

  Note: I asked Karl Hoarau for his opinion of this system, and he stated
  that he regarded it as subtropical only.  However, out of respect for the
  SAB analysts who assigned Dvorak tropical classification numbers for part
  of the cyclone's history, I have attempted to create a track.  At the
  time of the first SAB satellite bulletin on 6 November there was Quik-
  Scat data available supporting winds of 45-50 kts.  After this point the
  1-min avg MSW values given in the table above are my own estimates based
  on the SAB classifications.  The 10-min avg MSW values, as usual for the
  NWP basin, are taken from JMA's High Seas Bulletins.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                               TYPHOON CHEBI
                        (TC-23W / TY 0620 / QUEENIE)
                              8 – 14 November
              ------------------------------------------------
             
  Chebi: contributed by South Korea, is a swallow – a small bird with 
         long wings and a forked tail which eats insects.  Each spring 
         the bird visits Korea where it is believed to bring good fortune.

  A. Introduction and Storm Origins
  ---------------------------------

     Typhoon Chebi was the third of six tropical cyclones to affect the 
  Philippines and followed an almost identical track across Luzon as its 
  predecessor, Super Typhoon Cimaron.  On approach to Luzon, the storm 
  underwent explosive deepening on 10 November, intensifying from 55 kts 
  to 115 kts in just six hours!  Typhoon Chebi briefly peaked at 125 kts 
  before coming ashore near Casiguran early on 11 November with a MSW of 
  around 105 kts.  After transiting the northern Philippines, Chebi 
  continued to steadily weaken in the South China Sea, succumbing to high 
  wind shear and dry air on 14 November.   

     At 0130 UTC 8 November JTWC issued a STWO with ‘fair’ development 
  potential for a disturbance located approximately 420 nm west-northwest 
  of Guam.  Both multi-spectral imagery and a 07/2251 UTC SSMI pass 
  revealed increased convection over a consolidating LLCC.  Upper-level 
  analysis indicated favourable divergence aloft with low to moderate 
  wind shear.  The system entered PAGASA’s area of responsibility at 
  08/1200 UTC and the agency assigned the name Queenie.  (JMA had begun 
  issuing advisories six hours earlier.)  Based on continued development 
  and improving poleward outflow, JTWC issued a TCFA at 08/1100 UTC, 
  followed by issuance of the first warning on Tropical Depression 23W 
  at 09/0000 UTC.  The Prognostic Reasoning issued at this time noted 
  that a closed circulation was not evident on a recent QuikScat pass, 
  but multi-spectral satellite imagery indicated westerly winds on the 
  southern periphery of TD-23W wrapping into a LLCC.  Moving westwards, 
  TD-23W was upgraded to Tropical Storm Chebi by JMA and JTWC at 09/1200
  UTC with 10-min avg and 1-min avg MSWs of 35 kts and 45 kts, 
  respectively.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

     Tropical Storm Chebi tracked westwards south of a well-established 
  subtropical ridge which placed Luzon, Philippines, once again in the 
  firing line, having being mauled by Super Typhoon Cimaron almost two 
  weeks earlier.  By 10/0000 UTC Chebi had strengthened to 55 kts, but what
  transpired during the next six hours was truly remarkable!  Tropical 
  Storm Chebi underwent explosive intensification to such an extent that 
  JTWC upgraded the tropical cyclone to a 115-kt typhoon at 10/0600 UTC.  
  The estimated CP (analysed by JMA) dropped 40 mb during that six-hour 
  period from 985 mb to 945 mb.  Continuing steadily westwards, Typhoon 
  Chebi/Queenie reached its maximum intensity of 125 kts at 10/1200 UTC 
  while located approximately 150 nm north of Catanduanes Island.  The 
  storm was a tight, compact system with typhoon-force winds extending to 
  around 35 nm and gales as far as around 100 nm.  The tropical cyclone 
  began to weaken as it approached the eastern coast of Luzon .

     Typhoon Queenie made landfall over eastern Luzon near Casiguran at 
  0000 UTC 11 November with the MSW estimated at 105 kts.  The cyclone 
  crossed the island of Luzon in twelve hours and entered the South China 
  Sea at 11/0600 UTC.  Although poleward outflow remained good, Typhoon 
  Chebi continued to atrophy as it headed into an area of cool, dry air and
  higher wind shear.  JMA downgraded Chebi to a 55-kt tropical storm at 
  12/0600 UTC while JTWC maintained typhoon intensity for another twelve 
  hours before lowering their MSW to 60 kts.  Tropical Storm Chebi began 
  to meander more northwestwards on 13 November as a weakness developed 
  in the subtropical ridge.  Deep convection became confined to the 
  northern quadrants as moderate southerly wind shear persisted.  JMA 
  lowered Chebi to tropical depression intensity at 14/0600 UTC, ending 
  bulletin transmission.  JTWC downgraded Chebi to a 25-kt tropical 
  depression on their final warning at 14/1200 UTC, placing the centre 
  80 nm east-southeast of Hainan, China. 

     JMA estimated a maximum intensity of 105 kts (10-min avg) and a 
  minimum CP of 925 mb at 10/1200 UTC.  PAGASA estimated a peak 10-min avg
  MSW of 105 kts at 10/1200 UTC and 10/1800 UTC during the period the 
  storm was within their AOR.


  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     News reports indicate one person was killed in the Philippines, eight 
  injured, and three others missing.  The storm brought down power lines, 
  felled trees, and triggered floods and landslides.  Strong winds 
  destroyed two houses and damaged a dozen others in Casiguran.  There 
  were no other reports of damages in the Philippines.


  D. Additional Discussion
  ------------------------

     While there can be no doubt that Chebi/Queenie intensified very
  rapidly on 10 November, it may not have strengthened quite as much as
  implied by the JTWC warnings.   Karl Hoarau has provided an estimate
  of Chebi's intensity on 9 and 10 November, and following is a table
  comparing Karl's estimate with JTWC's:

   Date  Time    JTWC    KH
          (Z)    (kt)   (kt)
  --------------------------
  09 NOV 0000     25     35
  09 NOV 0600     30     40
  09 NOV 1200     45     50
  09 NOV 1800     45     60
  10 NOV 0000     55     70
  10 NOV 0600    115    115
  10 NOV 1200    125    135

     An intensification of 45 kts in six hours is still truly remarkable,
  even if not quite as extreme as 60 kts.  JMA's 10-min avg estimate at
  10/0000 UTC was 55 kts, which, all other things being equal, would be
  roughly equivalent to a 1-min avg MSW of 65 kts, which lends a little
  support to Karl's estimate.  Also, Mark Lander expressed the opinion
  that JTWC's 10/0000 UTC MSW of 55 kts was too low.

     One other point--in the track file I stuck with JTWC's peak intensity
  of 125 kts.  This is supported by the peak Dvorak ratings of T6.5/6.5 
  from JTWC, SAB and AFWA--none went as high as T7.0.  A delta of 10 kts
  is not really significant at those windspeeds, but Karl's peak of 135 kts
  would, of course, place Chebi in the super typhoon category.

  (Sections A, B and C written by Kevin Boyle; Section D by Gary Padgett)



                           SUPER TYPHOON DURIAN
                        (TC-24W / TY 0621/ REMING)
                         25 November – 7 December
              ----------------------------------------------

  Durian: contributed by Thailand, is a favourite fruit of Thailand 
          (Durio Zibethinus)

  A. Introduction and Storm Origins
  ---------------------------------

     The sixth and final super typhoon of 2006, Durian was also the fifth 
  tropical cyclone to hammer the Philippine Archipelago, striking Luzon 
  further to the south than its predecessors, Cimaron and Chebi.  Durian 
  had a fairly long track, originating from a disturbance south of the 
  Marianas, passing through the Philippines, and ending in the Gulf of 
  Thailand after skirting Vietnam.  Typhoon Durian left 734 people dead 
  in the Philippines and killed 81 in Vietnam.

     Based on the persistence of deep convection, the tropical disturbance
  that spawned Super Typhoon Durian was initially discussed in JTWC’s 
  STWO at 0600 UTC 24 November when it was located approximately 120 nm 
  southeast of Chuuk.  Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a 
  23/1932 UTC QuikScat pass both revealed a broad area of low to mid-
  level cyclonic turning.  The system was situated in an area of moderate 
  wind shear with good polar outflow aloft associated with an upper-level 
  anticyclone.  Once the vertical wind shear relaxed and convection began 
  to wrap into a better-defined LLCC, JTWC raised the development 
  potential to ‘fair’ at 25/0600 UTC, the same time that JMA first 
  identified a weak tropical depression in their shipping bulletins.  The 
  first warning issued by JTWC at 25/1800 UTC placed the centre of the 
  newly-formed tropical depression (TD-24W) approximately 450 nm east of 
  Yap and 280 nm south of Guam.  Drifting westwards, TD-24W intensified, 
  and was upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm in JTWC’s second warning at 
  26/0000 UTC.    Six hours later, JMA raised their MSW to 35 kts, 
  assigning the name Durian.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

     Tropical Storm Durian gradually strengthened over the next two days as
  it moved west to west-northwestward under the influence of a low to 
  mid-level ridge situated to the north. This was the same synoptic 
  feature that had steered Typhoon Chebi across the northern Philippines a
  week earlier.  PAGASA began issuing bulletins on the storm, naming it 
  Reming, at 28/0000 UTC after the tropical cyclone entered that agency’s 
  AOR.  Tropical Storm Durian/Reming was upgraded to a 65-kt typhoon (per 
  JTWC’s warnings) at 28/1200 UTC while centred approximately 640 nm east 
  of Manila, Philippines.  JMA raised their MSW to 70 kts six hours 
  later.  Typhoon Durian/Reming rapidly intensified and reached its peak 
  strength as a 135-kt super typhoon at 29/1200 UTC approximately 325 nm 
  east-southeast of Manila.  The storm made landfall in the Bicol region 
  after passing over Catanduanes Island at around 0600 UTC 30 November 
  with the MSW estimated at 125 kts.  Reming weakened over land as it 
  tracked westward over Luzon and emerged into the South China Sea on 
  1 December. 

     Typhoon Durian/Reming continued to slowly weaken as it transited 
  westwards across the South China Sea on 1 December.  After the MSW had 
  bottomed out at 75 kts, the tropical cyclone began to strengthen again 
  and attained a secondary peak of 90 kts at 03/0000 UTC while centred 
  approximately 290 nm east-northeast of Nha Trang, Vietnam.  Increasingly
  influenced by the northeast monsoon, Durian began to drift towards the 
  west-southwest on 3 December and began to deteriorate in the face of 
  higher wind shear and cooler air.  After turning southwestwards early on 
  4 December, Durian was downgraded to a 50-kt tropical storm at 04/0600 
  UTC.  However, it briefly re-attained minimal typhoon strength at 
  04/1800 UTC before JTWC lowered the MSW back to tropical storm status
  at 05/0600 UTC.  At this time Durian was scraping along the southern 
  shoreline of Vietnam.  JTWC downgraded it to tropical depression status 
  at 05/1800 UTC with the issuance of their final bulletin.  JMA issued 
  their final statement at 05/1200 UTC.   The remnant LOW subsequently
  crossed over the Malay Peninsula into the Andaman Sea where it finally
  dissipated.

     JMA estimated a maximum intensity of 105 kts (10-min avg) and a 
  minimum CP of 915 mb.  During the time Typhoon Reming was within PAGASA's
  AOR, the peak 10-min avg MSW assigned by that agency was 105 kts at 
  29/1200 UTC.

     According to some information sent by Karl Hoarau, the Virac station
  (13.6N/124.2E) recorded a SLP of 941.4 hPa with a MSW of 65 kts (10-min
  avg) on 30 November at 0200 UTC when the centre of the eye was located
  approximately 15 nm to the south-southeast.    The peak gust recorded
  at the station, around 0300 UTC, was 143 kts.


  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     The latest NDCC figures indicate that at least 734 people were killed 
  with 762 persons still missing.  Damage from Typhoon Durian/Reming is 
  estimated at over US$ 103 million.  The storm passed over the Mayon 
  volcano where mudslides of volcanic ash and boulders covered a large 
  portion of Legazpi City with deep mud.  According to the Wikipedia online
  report, at least 81 people died in Vietnam with 16 missing as a result of
  Durian.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones


              North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November
              -------------------------------------------------

     November is the month most likely to see tropical cyclone activity
  in the North Indian Ocean, averaging 1.45 tropical storms and 0.73
  hurricanes over the period 1981-2002.  However, November of 2006 proved
  to be a quiet month in the basin with not a single depression classified
  by any warning agency.  The only system of note occurred over the west-
  central Arabian Sea around 24-25 November.  A disturbed area which had
  formed around 19 November was located on the 20th about 600 nm south-
  west of Mumbai (Bombay), India.  The disturbance appeared to slowly
  migrate westward but, unfortunately I do not have available the STWOs
  issued by JTWC on 23 and 24 November.   At 24/2030 UTC JTWC issued a
  satellite bulletin, ostensibly for the same disturbance, which placed
  a LLCC near 9.6N/57.5E with a Dvorak rating of T2.5/2.5.   The intensity
  estimates, however, began to drop after this and to my knowledge, no
  TCFA was issued for this system.  

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for November:  1 tropical storm


                            Sources of Information
                            ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
  the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
  Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
  for the basin.    However, tropical cyclones in this region are named 
  by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and 
  Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their 
  respective areas of naming responsibility.  The La Reunion centre only 
  advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.  
  References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless
  otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
  40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
  1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
  tracks file.    Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.


            Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November
            -----------------------------------------------------

     One tropical storm formed in the Southwest Indian Ocean west of 90E
  during November--Tropical Storm Anita.  Anita was a minimal tropical
  storm which moved southward through the Mozambique Channel.  A report
  on this system follows.

     Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all
  the Southern Hemisphere systems may be found at the following link:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006-07_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season>



                           TROPICAL STORM ANITA
                             (MFR-02 / TC-03S)
                         26 November - 3 December
               --------------------------------------------

  A. Introduction and Storm Origins
  ---------------------------------

     Tropical Storm Anita was the first named tropical storm of the 2006-
  2007 tropical cyclone season in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin.  The
  storm was a relatively weak system which formed deep in the tropics well
  to the north of Madagascar and, during its tropical storm phase, pursued
  a generally southerly track down the middle of the Mozambique Channel.
  A satellite bulletin issued by JTWC at 1800 UTC on 26 November was the
  first reference to the disturbance which became Anita.  The LOW, with
  winds estimated at around 25 kts, was located approximately 500 nm east
  of Zanzibar.  By early on the 27th deep convection was consolidating
  over a LLCC, and JTWC assessed the development potential as 'fair' in
  an interim STWO issued at 27/0230 UTC.     MFR initiated bulletins on
  Tropical Disturbance 02 at 2700 UTC.  The system was located within a
  region of moderate vertical shear with an anticyclone to its south.

     Dvorak estimates from AFWA and JTWC had begun at T1.5/1.5, but by
  around 28/0000 UTC had reached T2.0/2.0.  Also, MFR's ratings had
  reached T2.0/2.0 by the same time, implying 10-min avg winds of 25 kts.
  The disturbance at this time was moving southwestward toward the northern
  end of the Mozambique Channel.   Deep convection decreased some on the
  28th, but by 29/0000 UTC was increasing over the LLCC with bands wrapping
  into the center on the northern and southern peripheries of the system.
  An anticyclone aloft was contributing to good poleward outflow and
  low vertical shear.  At 29/0030 UTC JTWC issued a TCFA, followed by the
  first warning on TC-03S at 1200 UTC.   The first JTWC warning located
  the center about 425 nm west-northwest of the northern tip of the island
  of Madagascar, tracking southwestward at about 4 kts.  The initial MSW
  was set at 40 kts (1-min avg).  MFR's intensity estimate was still at
  25 kts, but was upped to 30 kts (i.e., tropical depression status) six
  hours later.  The system was forecast to track generally southward along
  the western periphery of a steering ridge anchored northeast of
  Madagascar.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

     JTWC upped the MSW in TC-03S to 45 kts in their second warning issued
  at 0000 UTC on 30 November; however, the official intensity from MFR
  remained at 30 kts for more than another day.  The storm continued
  moving slowly south-southeastward through the Mozambique Channel on the 
  last day of November.  Satellite imagery around 0000 UTC on 1 December 
  showed that the center was starting to decouple from the deep convection
  and was located on the northern edge of the deepest convection.  
  Accordingly, JTWC lowered their MSW estimate to 40 kts (1-min avg).  
  Interestingly, it was at this time that the Meteorological Services of 
  Madagascar upgraded the depression to tropical storm intensity and 
  assigned the name Anita, which was contributed to the regional list by 
  themselves.  At 01/0000 UTC the center of Tropical Storm Anita was 
  located about 375 nm northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and moving 
  toward the south-southeast at 8 kts.  The MSW was estimated at 35 kts by
  MFR (10-min avg), which turned out to be the peak intensity assigned by 
  that agency.

     Anita made a slight comeback later on 1 December with JTWC bumping
  the intensity back up to 45 kts at 1200 UTC.  Vertical wind shear was
  moderate, but upper-level outflow was good.  By late on the 1st, however,
  vertical shear had increased to the point that most of the associated
  deep convection had dissipated.  JTWC issued their final warning on
  Anita at 02/0000 UTC, lowering the winds to 30 kts.  At the same time
  MFR also downgraded Anita to a 30-kt depression.  The ex-tropical storm
  continued slowly southward in the Channel, turning more to the southwest
  by 02/1800 UTC.   By then MFR had downgraded the depression to a 25-kt
  tropical disturbance, and the final bulletin at 03/0600 UTC placed a
  weak 20-kt LLCC about 350 nm west of Antananarivo, although winds of
  25-30 kts were still occurring in some of the stronger squalls in the
  southern semicircle.


  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from moderate
  Tropical Storm Anita.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for November:  2 tropical depressions **
                          1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity

  ** - one of these treated as a minimal tropical storm by JTWC


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories
  issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for
  waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for
  waters south of latitude 25S).  References to sustained winds imply
  a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere
  centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings
  are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  values included in the tracks file.    Additionally, information
  describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation
  features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC
  warnings.


                 South Pacific Tropical Activity for November
                 --------------------------------------------

     Just about exactly a month after intense Tropical Cyclone Xavier had 
  given a very early start to the 2006-2007 cyclone season in the South 
  Pacific, another cyclone of hurricane intensity formed southeast of the
  Solomon Islands.    Tropical Cyclone Yani became an impressive 75-kt
  hurricane but didn't quite match the earlier Xavier's 95-kt winds.
  The cyclone meandered around over waters south of the Solomons and well
  to the northwest of Vanuatu without significantly affecting any islands.
  A report on Tropical Cyclone Yani, written by Simon Clarke, follows.

     Two other systems were designated tropical depressions by RSMC Nadi,
  Fiji.  The first, Tropical Depression 03F, was a fairly weak system which
  was first analyzed as a depression at 0600 UTC on 1 November when it was
  located near 12.9S/179.2E, or well northeast of Fiji.  At 2100 UTC the
  center was re-analyzed to be much farther west near 12.7S/173.9E, or
  far to the northwest of Fiji.  The system meandered around in the same
  general area for a couple days in an environment of moderate vertical
  shear and was never forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone by the
  global models.  Winds likely never exceeded 20-25 kts and no track was
  included for this system in the companion cyclone tracks file prepared
  by the author.

     The other system, Tropical Depression 05F, formed at the end of the
  month to the northeast of the Solomons and strengthened to the point
  that JTWC classified it as a minimal tropical storm (1-min avg) and
  designated it as TC-04P.  A short report on this system is included
  below.

     Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all
  the Southern Hemisphere systems may be found at the following link:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006-07_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season>



                          TROPICAL CYCLONE YANI
                            (TD-04F / TC-02P)
                             17 – 27 November
                -----------------------------------------

     Tropical Cyclone Yani was the second early season cyclone in the 
  South Pacific to emerge from the persistently active ITCZ stretching 
  from the Solomon Islands through to the Northern Cook Islands during 
  the months of October and November, 2006.

     The initial tropical depression (04F) was first identified as 
  early as 16 November as a westward-moving disturbance to the west of 
  the International Date Line near 5.0S/174.0E.  However, TD-04F was 
  slow to consolidate despite a well-established westerly monsoonal 
  flow to the north and a strong southeasterly wind surge working its 
  way into the depression from the south.  By 19 November, TD-04F had 
  all but stalled to the SE of Rennell Island while describing a 
  shallow clockwise loop.  It was not until 21/1900 UTC that the system 
  commenced consistent central convective consolidation near 11.6S/161.6E.
  At this time, TD-04F had moved under the 250-hPa ridge in an area of
  weak wind shear and thereby entered an environment favourable for
  further development.  Convection erupted around the LLCC as the two
  primary convective bands wrapped into the centre of the developing
  cyclone.  RSMC Nadi named the developing cyclone Yani at 22/0000 UTC
  while located approximately 230 nm SW of Honiara, Solomon Islands (or 
  near 12.3S/162.5S), and noted that the cyclone was moving to the SE 
  at 4 kts.

     Subsequent development was fairly rapid.  By 23/0600 UTC Yani had 
  achieved hurricane intensity and reached its peak 12 hours later as a 
  75-kt (max 10 min-avg) 960-hPa severe cyclone.  A ragged eye could be 
  observed in both IR and visible satellite imagery at this time.  Peak 
  intensity was maintained for 12 hours as the cyclone was steered very 
  slowly in an anti-clockwise direction by a poleward-oriented mid to 
  high-level ridge pushing from the east.  Soon afterwards an area of 
  aggressive northeasterly wind shear overran Yani, tearing away its 
  central convective core to the SE.  By 24/01500 UTC, Yani was 
  downgraded from cyclone status near 13.1S/161.7E (or 245 nm SSE of 
  Honiara, Solomon Islands) as the completely exposed LLCC made a sharp 
  turn to the WNW in response to the strong subtropical ridge to its 
  south.  The remnant LLCC eventually dissolved to the west of 160E in 
  the Northern Coral Sea several days later.

  (Editor's Note: The peak 1-min avg MSW assigned by JTWC was 65 kts.  
  JTWC's peak T-number for Yani was T4.0, which was the lowest of all
  the warning agencies.  Brisbane and Fiji peaked at T5.0, while AFWA,
  SAB and Honolulu all reached T4.5 at some point.)

     There were no reports of any significant damage as a consequence 
  of Tropical Cyclone Yani.

  (Report written by Simon Clarke)



                            TROPICAL DEPRESSION
                             (TD-05F / TC-04P)
                         29 November - 4 December
               --------------------------------------------

     Tropical Depression 05F, or TC-04P per JTWC's numbering, formed at
  the end of November deep in the tropics and moved rather uneventfully
  southward.  Fiji began mentioning the system, numbering it as Tropical
  Disturbance 05F, on 29 November when it was located about 400 nm north-
  northeast of Honiara, on Guadalcanal in the Solomon Islands.  The LOW
  lay beneath a 250-hPa ridge in an area of low shear and moderate
  diffluence.   At 1800 UTC RSMC Nadi classified the system as a tropical
  depression, relocating it somewhat south and west of its 0900 UTC
  position.  TD-05F continued to drift southward, but at 0400 UTC on the
  30th the center was once more relocated, this time back to the north.
  At this time gale warnings were initiated on the system in anticipation
  of its possibly increasing to gale force.

     JTWC issued a TCFA for the system at 30/0600 UTC.  Consolidating
  convection was wrapping into the LLCC which was located in a favorable
  region with good outflow and low to moderate vertical shear.   JTWC
  issued their first warning on TC-04P at 1200 UTC, placing the center
  about 265 nm east-northeast of Honiara, moving west-southwestward at
  4 kts.  The initial MSW was set at 35 kts (1-min avg), corresponding
  to Fiji's 10-min avg intensity of 30 kts.  These were the highest MSW
  values estimated by the two agencies during the system's short lifetime.
  By early on 1 December TD-05F/TC-04P was tracking south-southeastward
  toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge to its south.  As the system
  continued to track slowly in a southerly direction, it began to encounter
  increasing vertical shear.  By 0600 UTC on 2 December the LLCC had
  decoupled from the convection and JTWC issued their final warning,
  placing the center about 340 nm southeast of Honiara.  RSMC Nadi issued
  their final gale warning at 02/1800 UTC but continued to monitor the
  weakening depression for a couple of days.    TD-05F drifted back to the
  west and became quasi-stationary approximately 275 nm south-southeast of
  Honiara early on the 4th and was referenced for the last time in Fiji's
  Tropical Disturbance Summary issued at 04/2100 UTC.

     The line of demarcation between the warning AORs of Brisbane and Nadi
  (160E) runs right through the Solomon Islands with Honiara lying right
  on the line (-9.5S/160.0E).  Apparently because of this, the TCWC at
  Brisbane, Queensland, issued advisories for the Solomon Islands between
  0400 UTC on 30 November and 0600 UTC on 1 December.   JTWC, Nadi, SAB
  and Brisbane were all in agreement in their respective Dvorak ratings
  during the time of TD-05F's maximum intensity on 1 December, assigning
  estimates of T2.5/2.5.   However, AFWA and CPHC assigned a few ratings
  of T3.0/3.0 on 1 December.

     No reports of any damage or casualties resulting from this system
  have been received.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

         SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION

     The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
  varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived.  Many readers
  will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
  I wanted to include them. 

  (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
  ---------------------------------------

     Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
  retrieved from the following FTP site:

     ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>

     Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
  messages may be found at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>

  Links are also included to websites with further information about the
  U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
  craft Operations Center.

  (2) Archived Advisories
  -----------------------

     All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
  strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
  are archived on TPC's website.  For the current year (using 2004 as an
  example), the archived products can be found at:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>

  Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
  the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>

  JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:

     http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.

     I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
  its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
  if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.

  (3) Satellite Imagery
  ---------------------

     Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
  available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
  courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates.  The
  links are:

     http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>

     http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.  For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is 
  located in the lower left portion of the screen.

     Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
  composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
  equator, can be found at:

  (1) For the Eastern North Pacific:

     http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html>

  (2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:

     http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html>

     I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
  as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.

  *************************************************************************

                               EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  *************************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
  Landsea, and John Diebolt):

    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
    http://mpittweather.com>
    ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
    http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>


     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
    

                    TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
  Report (ATCR) for 2005 (2004-2005 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.

     The URL is:  https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2006 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2006 Atlantic
  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
  track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. 

     The URL is:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>


     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  PREPARED BY

  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  Kevin Boyle  (Northwest Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Simon Clarke  (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  *************************************************************************
  *************************************************************************

Document: summ0611.htm
Updated: 3rd March 2007

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