[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary January 2005
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary January 2005 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
JANUARY, 2005
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
*************************************************************************
JANUARY HIGHLIGHTS
--> First Northwest Pacific tropical storm of year forms
--> Unusual Bay of Bengal tropical storm develops
--> Southwest Indian active--two storms strike Madagascar
--> Long-lived Coral Sea cyclone affects Vanuatu
--> Several minor, short-lived cyclones in Southeast Indian Ocean
*************************************************************************
***** Feature of the Month for January *****
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN
Beginning in 2000 tropical storms and typhoons forming in the North
Pacific west of the Dateline are assigned names by JMA taken from a
new list of Asian names contributed by fourteen nations and territories
from the western Pacific and eastern Asia. Names are not allocated
in alphabetical order and the majority are not personal names--instead
names of animals, plants, fictional characters, descriptive adjectives,
places--even foods--are utilized. The entire list consists of 140
names and all names will be used before any are repeated. The last
name assigned in 2004 was Noru in late December while two tropical
cyclones, Kulap and Roke, have already been named in 2005.
The next 36 names on the list are (** indicates name has already
been assigned in 2005):
Kulap ** Sanvu Longwang Kaemi
Roke ** Mawar Kirogi Prapiroon
Sonca Guchol Kai-tak Maria
Nesat Talim Tembin Saomai
Haitang Nabi Bolaven Bopha
Nalgae Khanun Chanchu Wukong
Banyan Vicente Jelawat Sonamu
Washi Saola Ewiniar Shanshan
Matsa Damrey Bilis Yagi
Since 1963 PAGASA has independently named tropical cyclones forming
in the Philippines' AOR--from 115E to 135E and from 5N to 25N (except
for a portion of the northwestern corner of the above region). Even
though the Philippines contributed ten names to the international list
of typhoon names, PAGASA still continues to assign their own names for
local use within the Philippines. It is felt that familiar names are
more easily remembered in the rural areas and that having a PAGASA-
assigned name helps to underscore the fact that the cyclone is within
PAGASA's AOR and potentially a threat to the Philippines. Another
consideration may be PAGASA's desire to assign a name when a system is
first classified as a tropical depression. Since tropical and/or
monsoon depressions can bring very heavy rainfall to the nation which
often results in disastrous flooding, the weather service feels that
assigning a name helps to enhance public attention given to a system.
Beginning with 2001 PAGASA began using new sets of cyclone names.
These do not all end in "ng" as did the older names. Four sets of 25
names will be rotated annually; thus, the set for 2005 will be re-used
in 2009. In case more than 25 systems are named in one season, an
auxiliary set will be used. PAGASA names for 2005 are (** indicates
name has already been assigned in 2005):
Auring ** Jolina Ramil
Bising Kiko Santi
Crising Labuyo Tino
Dante Maring Undang
Emong Nando Vinta
Feria Ondoy Wilma
Gorio Pepeng Yolanda
Huaning Quedan Zoraida
Isang
In the unlikely event that the list is exhausted, the following
names would be allocated as needed: Alamid, Bruno, Conching, Dolor,
Ernie, Florante, Gerardo, Hernan, Isko and Jerome.
**** Index to Feature of the Month Articles for 2004 ****
Jan - TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN
(also Index to Feature of the Month Articles for 2003)
Feb - TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA for the AUSTRALIAN REGION
Mar - WESTERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for 2004
and UPDATED TABLES OF ATLANTIC NET TROPICAL ACTIVITY
Apr - TABLES OF NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NET TROPICAL ACTIVITY
May - SURVEY RESULTS - SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE QUESTIONS
Jun - "MOZ-MIDGETS" AND "MED-CANES"
Jul - MONSOON DEPRESSIONS AND STRONG TROPICAL WAVES
Aug - SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES 2004 - 2005 SEASON
and NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES
Sep - ONE-HIT WONDERS AND SUPER TYPHOONS
Oct - A COMPARISON OF THE WIND FIELDS IN HURRICANE EDNA (1954)
AND HURRICANE JUAN (2003) (by Chris Fogarty)
Nov - A REVIEW OF THE 2003-2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON
FOR THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
Dec - A REVIEW OF THE 2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON
FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for January: No tropical cyclones
North Atlantic Tropical Activity for January
--------------------------------------------
On the evening of 4 January I received an e-mail from Sandy Delgado
of Miami, Florida. Sandy was calling attention to an interesting-looking
extratropical low-pressure system located near 30N/50W. A burst of
convection had occurred during the afternoon and was located just north-
east of a fairly well-defined surface LOW center. The appearance in
an accompanying satellite image resembled a shear-type tropical cyclone
in some aspects. The LOW was nowhere near becoming a tropical or even
subtropical cyclone, but it was nonetheless interesting in that SSTs in
the area ranged from 24 to 26 C. Out-of-season tropical cyclones have
originated in that general area in the past (e.g., Alice of December,
1954, Lili of December, 1984, and Ana of April, 2003).
*************************************************************************
SOUTH ATLANTIC (SAT) - Atlantic Ocean South of the Equator
Activity for January: No tropical cyclones
South Atlantic Tropical Activity for January
--------------------------------------------
Only ten months earlier certain portions of Brazil's southeastern
coastline were severely damaged by the rather potent Cyclone Catarina.
(I'll leave the qualifier 'tropical' off in the interest of not stirring
up another hornets' nest!) On the 30th of January a low-pressure system
near 20.5S/37.5W began to show a few signs of the first stages of
evolving towards a subtropical or tropical cyclone. There was a big
blow-up of convection and some evidence of upper-level outflow. John
Diebolt of Tucson, Arizona, stated that he'd place it near the dividing
line between an extratropical and subtropical cyclone. Alexandre
Aguiar of the Climatologia Urbana Weather Center in Brazil passed along
a forecast from an amateur meteorological site in Brazil which quite
confidently forecast the development of a strong tropical storm.
Needless to say, this did not materialize. I received no further
information on the system, and if it had continued to develop into a
tropical-like system, it would surely have attracted much attention among
tropical cyclone discussion groups.
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for January: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for January: 1 tropical storm
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
unless otherwise noted.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
sends data taken from synoptic observations around the Northwest
Pacific basin. A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for
the assistance they so reliably provide.
In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
area of warning responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for January
-----------------------------------------------
January tropical cyclones are not exactly common in the Western North
Pacific basin, but they are not all that rare either. The first named
tropical storm of the 2005 season appeared around the middle of January
and pursued a northward track which took it just east of the Mariana
Islands. Tropical Storm Kulap's track was quite similar to the track
of the final cyclone of 2004, Tropical Storm Noru. Kulap almost reached
typhoon intensity, and there are some tropical cyclone researchers who
feel that the system did briefly become a typhoon. A report on Kulap,
written by Kevin Boyle, follows.
TROPICAL STORM KULAP
(TC-01W / STS 0501)
13 - 19 January
----------------------------------------
Kulap: contributed by Thailand, is the Thai word for 'rose'
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The first significant tropical cyclone of 2005 in the Northwest
Pacific (See Note) originated from a disturbance near 4.5N/152.0E that
was included in JTWC's STWO at 1200 UTC 12 January. At that time, deep
convection was beginning to consolidate over a broad LLCC and upper-level
analysis depicted a light wind shear environment and moderate diffluence.
Development of the system continued and a TCFA was issued at 13/1400 UTC.
This was superseded by the first JTWC warning at 13/1800 UTC which placed
the centre of Tropical Depression 01W approximately 115 nm southwest of
Chuuk. Tropical Depression 01W proceeded to strengthen slowly during the
14th as it drifted erratically west to west-northwestward and reached
tropical storm intensity at 1800 UTC 14 January approximately 430 nm
south-southeast of Guam. At this time, QuikScat imagery showed a large
area of gale-force winds extending well to the north of the centre.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Initially tracking west to west-northwestward, Tropical Storm 01W
turned northwards at 0600 UTC 15 January with the LLCC relocated to a
position approximately 375 nm south-southeast of Guam. Gradual
strengthening brought the MSW up to 45 kts by 15/1200 UTC, this intensity
then remaining constant for a further 24 hours. JMA upgraded the
system to tropical storm intensity at this time, dubbing the system
Kulap. Tropical Storm Kulap continued north on a track that paralleled
the Marianas, making its closest approach to Guam at 16/1200 UTC when it
passed 130 nm to the east. After a slight dip in intensity at 17/0000
UTC, Kulap intensified again, reaching a peak intensity of 60 kts at
17/1800 UTC. At this time, a northeasterly heading had already become
established, the system having recurved around the low to mid-level
steering ridge to the east.
Tropical Storm Kulap maintained its maximum intensity of 60 kts as it
turned east-northeastwards at 0000 UTC 18 March, being located
approximately 355 nm east-northeast of Saipan. In fact, Kulap remained
a strong tropical storm for a large portion of the 18th even as it began
to approach the mid-latitude westerlies, but the storm began to quickly
lose steam at 18/1800 UTC when the MSW was finally brought down to
45 kts. At this point, JTWC decided to call it a day and released the
final warning with Kulap located about 615 nm west of Wake Island and
racing east-northeastward at 23 kts as it began to undergo extratropical
transition. JMA continued issuing tropical cyclone bulletins for another
12 hours before downgrading Kulap to a low-pressure area.
All Asian warning agencies except HKO and PAGASA estimated peak MSWs
of 50 kts with JMA estimating a minimum CP of 985 mb. Neither HKO nor
PAGASA issued warnings on this system.
(Editor's Note: Mark Lander and Roger Edson feel that Kulap quite
possibly attained typhoon intensity for a brief period on the morning
of 17 January. However, as Mark points out, it is a close call, and
JTWC's available intensity estimates from the official satellite
agencies were ranging from 45 to 65 kts. Normally 5 or 10 kts isn't
worth arguing about, but since the number of Western Pacific typhoons
is an important and widely-cited climatological statistic, that
particular 5 or 10 kts has a disproportionate importance.)
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Storm Kulap may be found
at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/PACIFIC_WEST/2005_01W_BT.gif>
(Note: Even though Tropical Storm Kulap was the first significant
tropical cyclone of 2005 in the Northwest Pacific, it could also be
considered the last storm of the 2004 season. Climatologically speaking,
tropical systems can occur at any time of the year in this basin, but
February statistically has the lowest average number. Therefore,
January may be considered a late season month in the Northwest Pacific
tropical cyclone calendar.)
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
Huang Chunliang send the following rainfall observations from
Chuuk in association with Tropical Storm Kulap:
Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed:
CHUUK, ECI (7.45N 151.83E) 166.6 mm [13/06-14/06Z]
CHUUK, ECI (7.45N 151.83E) 139.4 mm [13/18-14/18Z]
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
There were no damages or casualties known to have been caused by
Tropical Storm Kulap.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle with contributions by Huang Chunliang)
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for January: 1 tropical depression
1 cyclonic storm
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some
information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
(IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic
observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. In the North Indian Ocean
basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
within 48 hours.
North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for January
------------------------------------------------
While January tropical cyclones are much rarer in the North Indian
Ocean region than in the Northwest Pacific, they are not altogether
unknown. Cyclones of tropical storm intensity formed in the North
Indian Ocean in 1986 and 1991, the former in the Bay of Bengal and the
second in the Arabian Sea. January of 2005 saw the formation of two
numbered (by JTWC) systems in the Bay of Bengal. Tropical Cyclone 01B
was a very weak tropical depression which formed during the second week
of the month roughly a couple hundred miles southeast of southern Sri
Lanka. The system drifted erratically northward for a couple of days,
dissipating on the 10th. Estimated peak winds did not exceed 25 kts.
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone 01B may be found at
the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/INDIAN_NORTH/2005_01B_BT.gif>
The second Bay of Bengal cyclone came on the heels of TC-01B, forming
around mid-month several hundred miles east-southeast of Sri Lanka.
This system, known as Tropical Cyclone 02B by JTWC, developed into a
minimal tropical storm (per both JTWC's and IMD's analysis) and was
christened as Cyclonic Storm Hibaru by IMD. A report on Cyclonic Storm
Hibaru follows.
CYCLONIC STORM HIBARU
(TC-02B / BOB0501)
13 - 17 January
-----------------------------------------
Hibaru: contributed by the Maldives
On 10 January an area of convection developed and persisted about
475 nm east-southeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka. The convection was
associated with an area of broad troughing, but microwave imagery
indicated no clear LLCC. Favorable diffluence lay over the system
and vertical shear was weak. The next day the disturbance was located
about 600 nm east-southeast of Colombo and there had been some
consolidation of the associated deep convection. QuikScat data indicated
enhanced winds both poleward and equatorward of an elongated LLCC. JTWC
upped the potential for development to 'fair'. Very slow development
ensued on the 12th and into the 13th--at 13/1300 UTC JTWC issued the
first TCFA for the system. Deep convection was becoming better organized
over the LLCC with spiral banding evident to the north. At about the
same time IMD classified the LOW as a depression, later upgrading it to
a deep depression (i.e., 30 kts) at 0300 UTC on 14 January. JTWC issued
a second TCFA at 14/1300 UTC, followed by the first warning on TC-02B
at 1800 UTC. The initial MSW was set at 35 kts and the cyclone's center
was quasi-stationary approximately 440 nm east-southeast of Colombo.
Tropical Cyclone 02B's track was very erratic. Throughout its life-
time the system meandered slowly a few hundred miles east-southeast of
Sri Lanka. It is not certain at what point IMD upgraded the system
to cyclonic storm status. At 14/1200 UTC it was still classified as a
deep depression. On the next warning which I have available (15/1800
UTC) it was classified as a cyclonic storm. This system was named Hibaru
by IMD--I do have a warning issued at 16/0000 UTC in which the system was
referred to as (interestingly) 'Tropical' Storm Hibaru. Hibaru for the
most part drifted very slowly southward on the 15th and 16th. At
16/1800 UTC it was relocated to the northwest to a position 360 nm east-
southeast of Colombo, tracking north-northwestward at 6 kts. At this
time JTWC dropped the MSW to 30 kts, and at 17/0000 UTC the final JTWC
warning was issued, lowering the winds to 25 kts. Satellite CI estimates
were 25 and 30 kts, and the partially-exposed LLCC was located to the
northeast of the remaining deep convection.
The cyclone's slow and erratic motion resulted from a weak steering
environment balanced by a low to mid-level ridge to the north of the
system and westerlies along the equator. The highest MSW estimated by
both JTWC and IMD was 35 kts (1-min avg).
A graphic displaying the track of Cyclonic Storm Hibaru may be found
at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/INDIAN_NORTH/2005_02B-HIBARU_BT.gif>
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Cyclonic
Storm Hibaru.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for January: 1 tropical depression
2 tropical storms **
1 intense tropical cyclone
** - JTWC issued no warnings for one of these systems
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named
by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and
Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their
respective areas of naming responsibility. The La Reunion centre only
advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.
References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless
otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for January
----------------------------------------------------
The South Indian Ocean west of longitude 90E was fairly active during
January. Bulletins were issued on four numbered disturbances, and three
of these became tropical storms. Ernest was the only system to reach
tropical cyclone (i.e., hurricane) intensity, but intensified enough to
become the second intense tropical cyclone (MSW >= 90 kts) of the season.
(Bento in November was the first.) Tropical Cyclone Ernest, as well as
its successor, Tropical Storm Felapi, both affected the southwestern
portion of the island of Madagascar, leaving in their wake widespread
flooding. The other tropical storm, Daren, formed in the eastern part
of the basin and had no effect on populated areas.
Early in the month Tropical Depression 07 formed in the Mozambique
Channel and moved southeastward into western Madagascar between Morombe
and Toliara (Tulear) with peak winds estimated at 30 kts. (No warnings
were issued on this system by JTWC.) A graphic displaying the track
of Tropical Depression 07 may be found at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/INDIAN_SOUTHWEST/2005_07M_BT.gif>
Reports on Daren, Ernest and Felapi follow. There was one additional
system numbered by MFR--Tropical Disturbance 10. Only one bulletin was
issued on this system, at 1200 UTC on 23 January. The LOW was classified
as a "zone of disturbed weather" near 16S/79E with winds estimated at
only 20 kts. The system apparently did not strengthen further as no
additional bulletins were issued.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DAREN
(MFR-09 / TC-11S)
17 - 22 January
-------------------------------------------------
Daren: contributed by Mauritius
A. Storm Origins
----------------
On 13 January an area of convection developed and persisted about
700 nm west-northwest of the Cocos Islands. A weak LLCC was present with
increasing deep convection located in an environment of low vertical
shear and favorable divergence aloft. The disturbance continued to move
westward and 24 hours later was located approximately 575 nm northwest
of the Cocos Islands. A fully-exposed LLCC was visible with deep
convection located to the west of the center. A zone of high vertical
shear was located to the north with weak outflow in the poleward
direction. On the 15th the system exhibited an elongated LLCC with
shallow convection along the periphery. Organization gradually
increased on the 16th, and at 0900 UTC on 17 January JTWC issued a TCFA
for the system, which was then located a little over 700 nm east of
Diego Garcia. At 1200 UTC MFR issued the first bulletin on Tropical
Disturbance 09 with the MSW estimated at 25 kts. JTWC's first warning
on TC-11S came at 0000 UTC on 18 January, locating the center about
650 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia and tracking south-southwestward
at 14 kts.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
JTWC estimated the MSW at 35 kts (1-min avg) on their first warning
at 18/0000 UTC, and upped it to 45 kts at 1800 UTC, but it was not until
19/1200 UTC that MFR (and apparently Mauritius also) upgraded the system
to Tropical Storm Daren with 40-kt winds. Daren at this time was located
approximately 450 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia and tracking rather
quickly to the west-southwest in excess of 20 kts as it sped along the
northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The MSW estimate of 40 kts
turned out to be the peak intensity for Daren--in fact even before Daren
was named JTWC had reduced the MSW slightly to 40 kts (1-min avg).
As Daren continued to sail west-southwestward across the central South
Indian Ocean it began to run into an environment of increasing vertical
shear. JTWC issued their final warning on Daren at 20/1800 UTC, noting
that the LLCC had become exposed to the north of the convection. At the
same time MFR reduced Daren to minimal tropical storm intensity, and at
21/0000 UTC downgraded the system to a tropical depression, centered
about 325 nm northeast of Rodrigues Island. The system continued to move
slightly south of due west as it slowly weakened. The final reference
to ex-Daren by MFR was at 1200 UTC on 22 January when it was located
about 150 nm north of Mauritius.
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Storm Daren may be found
at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/INDIAN_SOUTHWEST/2005_09M-11S-DAREN_BT.gif>
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
Storm Daren.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNEST
(MFR-08 / TC-12S)
17 - 25 January
---------------------------------------------------
Ernest: contributed by the Comoros
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The second intense tropical cyclone to stir Southwest Indian waters
during the 2004-2005 season had its origins within an area of convection
which sprang up approximately 650 nm west of Diego Garcia on 16 January.
Convection was persisting over a developing LLCC within a region of low
to moderate vertical shear and favorable poleward outflow. MFR issued
the first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 08 at 0700 UTC on the 17th,
fixing the poorly-defined center about 650 nm north of Mauritius. The
system continued to march westward, gradually increasing in organization.
JTWC issued a TCFA at 17/2000 UTC as deep convection was consolidating
over the LLCC, but the development trend plateaued on the 18th. However,
the potential for development remained good and a second TCFA was issued
at 18/2000 UTC.
MFR had ceased issuing bulletins after 17/1200 UTC, but resumed them
at 19/0600 UTC. Tropical Disturbance 08 was then located approximately
160 nm north-northwest of the northern tip of Madagascar. JTWC issued
a third TCFA at 19/1300 UTC, although there had been a decrease in deep
convection and 850-mb vorticity had diminished some during the previous
12 hours. However, early on 20 January the disturbance began to develop
rather rapidly. At 20/0600 UTC MFR directly upgraded the system from a
tropical disturbance to a 40-kt tropical storm with the Meteorological
Services of Madagascar assigning the name Ernest. Also, the first JTWC
warning on TC-12S was issued at the same time with an initial warning
intensity of 45 kts (1-min avg). Tropical Storm Ernest was located about
400 nm north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and was moving west-
southwestward at 12 kts into the Mozambique Channel. Dual outflow
channels had become established and the beginning signs of an eye were
evident.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Ernest intensified very quickly after becoming a tropical storm.
Winds reached 65 kts (per both MFR and JTWC) only 12 hours after the
system was named, qualifying Ernest for tropical cyclone (i.e.,
hurricane) status. The system was then located over the very warm
waters of the Mozambique Channel about 360 nm northwest of Antananarivo,
Madagascar, and moving southwestward at 11 kts. Ernest's intensification
trend levelled off somewhat, however, for about 24 hours after reaching
tropical cyclone intensity. The storm's motion, which had been west-
southwesterly, became increasingly southwesterly, and by the time that
Ernest began to intensify significantly again, it was moving due
southward through the Channel along the western periphery of a mid-level
steering ridge to the southeast.
Tropical Cyclone Ernest's intensity began to creep upward at 21/1800
UTC, and by 0600 UTC on 22 January had reached its peak MSW of 90 kts,
thereby qualifying for intense tropical cyclone status. JTWC's estimated
MSW of 100 kts (1-min avg) is in excellent agreement with MFR's. Ernest
was then located approximately 300 nm west-southwest of Antananarivo.
The cyclone was a rather compact system with gales extending outward only
about 70 nm from the center in most quadrants. The estimated minimum
CP was 940 hPa, and satellite CI estimates were T5.5 from all agencies.
Later on the 22nd Ernest's eye had become covered by the CDO, but micro-
wave imagery revealed that the eye was still well-defined.
Ernest held on to its peak intensity for 18 hours, then began to
weaken. As the cyclone reached the 24th parallel its track took a jog
toward the southeast. By 0600 UTC on 23 January Ernest was just about
on the southwestern coast of Madagascar roughly 65 nm south of Tulear
with peak winds estimated at 75 kts. The storm continued to trek south-
eastward, skimming the coastline, and at 1200 UTC was located very near
the large island's southern tip with the MSW estimated at 70 kts.
Following its encounter with Madagascar, Tropical Cyclone Ernest began
to accelerate toward the southeast and weaken. At 23/1800 UTC both MFR
and JTWC downgraded the cyclone to tropical storm status, and this was
JTWC's final warning on the system as it was showing signs of the first
stages of extratropical transition.
Tropical Storm Ernest continued to race away to the southeast. MFR
declared the storm extratropical at 24/1200 UTC when located about 600 nm
south-southwest of Reunion Island. The storm's forward speed continued
to increase as it sped southeastward, and the maximum winds were forecast
to increase once more, possible due to the rapid translational speed.
The final reference to ex-Ernest by MFR was at 25/0000 UTC, locating a
65-kt extratropical storm center approximately 900 nm south-southeast
of Reunion Island.
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone Ernest may be
found at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/INDIAN_SOUTHWEST/2005_08M-12S-ERNEST_BT.gif>
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
The center of Ernest passed near Mayotte Island in the northern
Mozambique Channel on 20 January shortly after being upgraded to a
tropical storm. Winds peaked at SE/42 kts, gusting to 53 kts, at 0500
UTC, then dropped off to ENE/15 kts at 0600 UTC. They had increased
again by 0700 UTC and reached a secondary peak of NNE/34 kts, gusting
to 47 kts, at 0800 UTC. The minimum SLP of 995 hPa was recorded at 0600
UTC, strongly suggesting that Ernest's center passed very near the island
around that hour. Except for the drop off at 0600 UTC, winds gusted in
excess of gale force from 0400 through 1000 UTC. (The above comments
based on hourly observations only.)
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
The heavy rainfall brought by Tropical Cyclone Ernest triggered
significant flooding in southern Madagascar. This was exacerbated by
the arrival of Tropical Storm Felapi only five days later. Several
weeks after the storms the tally was 19 dead, 214 persons unaccounted
for and 32,000 homeless. Additional information on the effects of
Ernest and Felapi may be found at the following links:
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=qw1106905503842B253>
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=45358&SelectRegion=Southern_Africa&SelectCountry=MADAGASCAR>
http://www.afrol.com/articles/15456>
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FELAPI
(MFR-11)
26 January - 2 February
--------------------------------------------------
Felapi: contributed by Swaziland
A. Storm Origins
----------------
A tropical disturbance began to take shape in the southern Mozambique
Channel on 26 January. MFR issued the first bulletin on Tropical
Disturbance 11 at 26/1200 UTC. The bulletin indicated that several
LLCCs possibly existed, but the main one was located approximately
250 nm northwest of Tulear on the southwestern coast of the island of
Madagascar. Deep convection was over this center, and the potential
for intensification was considered good. The disturbance was relocated
about 90 nm to the south at 27/0000 UTC, and thence began a slow crawl
eastward. Winds were upped to 30 kts at 27/0600 UTC, making the system
an official tropical depression. At 1800 UTC the depression was upgraded
to Tropical Storm Felapi while located 115 nm northwest of Tulear. The
Dvorak ratings from MFR at this time were T2.5/2.5, which normally means
a 30-kt (10-min avg) tropical depression in this basin. However, the
MFR bulletin issued at 27/1800 UTC indicates that microwave imagery,
which revealed a clearly-defined LLCC, may have been used as a basis for
upgrading the system to tropical storm status. Also, satellite classi-
fication bulletins from SAB supported classifying the system as a
tropical storm.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Once having been upgraded to tropical storm status, Felapi commenced
a southeasterly track which took it inland into southwestern Madagascar.
At 1200 UTC on 28 January Felapi was inland about 80 km southeast of
Tulear (also spelled Toliara) and had been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical
depression. The system continued moving southeastward across south-
western Madagascar and had emerged into the South Indian Ocean by 0600
UTC on the 29th. The ex-Felapi system then halted and swung around to
a northeasterly track offshore from Madagascar's southeastern coastline.
The final bulletin from MFR was issued at 31/1200 UTC and placed the
disturbance east of Manakara, Madagascar, and about 300 nm west-southwest
of Reunion Island. (Interestingly, Dvorak estimates from SAB on the
29th suggest that Felapi may have briefly reached tropical storm status
after emerging off the southern tip of Madagascar.)
Bulletins on ex-Felapi were reinitiated at 1200 UTC on 1 February,
this time as a subtropical depression with the center located roughly
about 475 nm southwest of Reunion Island. During the two days in
non-warning status the LOW center had drifted southward well east of
southern Madagascar and had re-intensified to 35 kts as a hybrid, sub-
tropical-type system. However, the MSW was lowered to 30 kts six hours
later and remained pegged there for the remainder of the time that
bulletins were being issued by MFR. The subtropical depression continued
moving southward, then turning to a southeasterly track on the 2nd. The
final reference to ex-Felapi by MFR at 02/1800 UTC placed the center at
a point about 615 nm south-southwest of Reunion Island.
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Storm Felapi may be found
at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/INDIAN_SOUTHWEST/2005_11M-FELAPI_BT.gif>
(JTWC never issued any warnings on Tropical Storm Felapi. The
regular STWO for the South Indian Ocean issued at 27/1800 UTC made no
mention of any disturbance in the Channel. An interim bulletin issued
at 28/0000 UTC did refer to the system, noting that a mostly-exposed
LLCC lay off the southwestern coast of Madagascar with deep convection
over land. The disturbance was assessed as having a fair potential
for development. Based on the wording in the 28/0000 UTC STWO, there
must have been another interim STWO issued after the regular 27/1800 UTC
issuance which I do not have in my files.)
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Tropical Storm Felapi struck the same general area which had been
affected by Tropical Cyclone Ernest only five days earlier. The combined
rains from the two tropical storms led to widespread and significant
flooding. More information may be found in Section D of the report on
Tropical Cyclone Ernest above.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for January: 1 tropical LOW **
1 inland monsoon LOW
3 tropical cyclones
** - classfied as a minimal tropical storm by JTWC
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are
the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning
Centres at Perth, Western Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory.
References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period
unless otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor-
dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the
source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included
in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean
Tropical Activity for January
------------------------------------------
There was a flurry of tropical LOWs and weak tropical cyclones in the
waters off northwestern Australia during January. As December was ending
two LOWs were of concern--one inland over the Northern Territory and
another in the Timor Sea. The former meandered around over the Northern
Territory and dropped copious amounts of rainfall, but never managed to
move out over the surrounding seas where it would have had a chance of
developing into a tropical cyclone. The tropical LOW in the Timor Sea
moved eastward and briefly became Tropical Cyclone Raymond on the 2nd
before moving inland in the Kimberley region. Raymond's remnant LOW
moved eastward into the Gulf of Carpentaria where it began to blossom
again, then reversed its course and moved westward, eventually reaching
the Timor Sea once more. JTWC upgraded the rejuvenated system to minimal
tropical storm status, but Perth classified it as only a tropical LOW.
Tropical Cyclones Sally and Tim were short-lived, minimal tropical
cyclones which formed much further west--well away from Australia--and
moved southwestward, neither lasting for more than a couple of days as
a tropical cyclone.
Short reports on all the above-mentioned systems follow.
NORTHERN TERRITORY MONSOON LOW
(NRL Invest 96S)
29 December - 2 January
--------------------------------------------------
A monsoon LOW formed over the Northern Territory on 29 December east
of Port Keats and well south of Darwin. Over the next couple of days
the system moved slowly northeastward, reaching a point just southeast
Jabiru on the 31st. Deep convection was cyclic around a fairly
well-organized LLCC, and environmental conditions were considered
somewhat favorable for development as a tropical cyclone should the
center move out over the ocean. However, the LOW reversed its motion
and began to drift back southwestward, passing near Katherine and
reaching a point just northwest of Victoria River Downs on 1 January.
Thereafter, the LOW accelerated south-southwestward further inland and
was discounted as a potential tropical cyclone candidate. (No tabular
or graphical track is available for this system.)
Huang Chunliang has sent me some rainfall observations associated
with the LOW, which is the main reason I've included this brief report
on the system.
Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed:
MILINGIMBI (WMO94140 12.12S 134.90E) 211.8 mm [30/00-31/00Z]
MCCLUER ISLAND AWS (-------- 11.05S 132.98E) 202.8 mm [30/00-31/00Z]
MANINGRIDA (WMO94142 12.05S 134.22E) 113.8 mm [30/00-31/00Z]
ELCHO ISLAND (WMO94146 12.03S 135.57E) 107.4 mm [30/00-31/00Z]
BRADSHAW (-------- 14.95S 130.80E) 213.2 mm [31/00-01/00Z]
PORT KEATS AERO (-------- 14.25S 129.53E) 212.0 mm [31/00-01/00Z]
JABIRU AIRPORT (WMO94137 12.67S 132.90E) 116.0 mm [31/00-01/00Z]
TIMBER CREEK (WMO94220 15.65S 130.47E) 129.2 mm [01/00-02/00Z]
Note: In the above table, dates of 30 and 31 refer to December, 2004,
while dates of 01 and 02 refer to January, 2005.
(Report written by Gary Padgett with contributions by Huang Chunliang)
TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND
(TC-07S)
31 December - 3 January
--------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The first of a series of short-lived, minor tropical cyclones in
the Southeast Indian Ocean during January and early February began
at the end of December when an area of convection formed off the
coast of Western Australia. On 30 December satellite imagery depicted
cycling deep convection over a possible weak LLCC located in a region
of weak vertical shear and moderate diffluence aloft. Perth began
issuing gale warnings on the developing LOW at 0400 UTC on the 31st,
locating the center approximately 215 nm north-northwest of Broome.
As the day progressed water vapor imagery revealed increasing outflow
along the western periphery of the system, and an upper-level analysis
indicated an increase in 850-mb vorticity. In spite of the fact that
vertical shear had increased some, JTWC upgraded the potential for
further development to 'fair'.
JTWC issued a TCFA at 31/1700 UTC as deep convection continued to
consolidate over the LLCC. The first JTWC warning on TC-07S was issued
at 31/1800 UTC with the center located about 200 nm north-northwest of
Broome, moving slowly southward. However, Perth continued to maintain
the system as a 30-kt tropical LOW. Late on 31 December the LOW began
to track slowly northeastward, requiring a relocation in the warning
issued at 0400 UTC on 1 January. The system had become no better
organized--the center was fully-exposed to the northeast of the deep
convection. As New Year's Day progressed the tropical LOW commenced
a slow east-southeastward drift as convection once more began to increase
over the LLCC.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Early on 2 January the system's appearance in satellite imagery had
improved to the point that Perth upgraded it to Tropical Cyclone Raymond.
Also, JTWC upped the MSW to 50 kts (1-min avg) based on Dvorak ratings of
T3.0 and T3.5. Raymond was located approximately 250 nm north-northeast
of Broome at 02/0400 UTC, moving eastward. The easterly motion continued
and accelerated as the 2nd of January progressed. By 1600 UTC Raymond
had moved inland just west of Kalumburu in the Kimberley region and had
been downgraded back to a tropical LOW. The remnant LOW continued to
move eastward across the Northern Territory as it weakened, eventually
reaching the Gulf of Carpentaria. Ultimately, the ex-Raymond LOW
reversed itself and moved back westward across northern Australia, moving
out into the Timor Sea on the 13th and necessitating the resumption of
gale warnings. JTWC also issued warnings on the system once more,
designating it as TC-10S. A separate report on TC-10S may be found
below following the report on Tropical Cyclone Sally.
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone Raymond may be
found at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/AUSTRALIA/2005_02U-07S-RAYMOND_BT.gif>
NOTE: The final position in Raymond's track, which shows a sudden jog to
the southwest, should probably be discarded. This was based upon JTWC's
final warning position, issued after the final advice from BoM Perth, and
considering the subsequent known history of the ex-Raymond vortex, was
likely in error.
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
Patrick Hoareau sent a couple of pressure observations from early
on 2 January around the time that Raymond was upgraded to tropical
cyclone status. At 02/0300 UTC Browse Island (14.1S/123.5E) reported
a SLP of 986.2 mb, and at 02/0700 UTC Kuri Bay (15.5S/124.5E) reported
a SLP of 998 mb and falling.
Huang Chunliang has sent the following rainfall amounts associated
with Tropical Cyclone Raymond:
Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed:
MANGO FARM (WMO94117 13.73S 130.68E) 195.2 mm [03/00-04/00Z]
CHANNEL POINT (WMO94121 13.17S 130.12E) 134.2 mm [03/00-04/00Z]
CAPE FOURCROY (-------- 11.78S 130.02E) 198.2 mm [04/00-05/00Z]
CAMOOWEALTOWNSHIP (WMO94255 19.92S 138.12E) 121.8 mm [04/00-05/00Z]
CHANNEL POINT (WMO94121 13.17S 130.12E) 110.6 mm [04/00-05/00Z]
CLONCURRY AIRPORT (-------- 20.67S 140.50E) 152.2 mm [05/00-06/00Z]
A special thanks to Patrick and Chunliang for the information they
provided.
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Cyclone
Raymond have been received.
(Report written by Gary Padgett with contributions by Patrick Hoareau
and Huang Chunliang)
TROPICAL CYCLONE SALLY
(TC-09S)
7 - 10 January
------------------------------------------
On 6 January an area of convection developed roughly 500 nm west-
southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia. Deep convection was persisting over
a well-defined LLCC, and a 06/1131 UTC QuikScat pass depicted a
symmetrical LLCC with convergent banding wrapping in from the northeast.
UW-CIMSS products showed a region of increasing low-level vorticity
associated with the LLCC. JTWC assessed the potential for development
as 'fair'. At 0400 UTC on 7 January the Perth TCWC issued the first
gale warning for the LOW, placing the center approximately 200 nm east-
northeast of the Cocos Islands. Although deep convection weakened some
during the day, a QuikScat pass at 1108 UTC showed winds of 25 kts near
the center. JTWC issued a TCFA at 2100 UTC as deep convection was
increasing and persisting over the LLCC, which was equatorward of the
subtropical ridge axis. At 0400 UTC on 8 January Perth upgraded the
system to Tropical Cyclone Sally, located about 200 nm east-southeast of
the Cocos Islands and moving west-southwestward at 6 kts. Shortly
afterward, at 08/0600 UTC, JTWC issued their first warning on TC-09S.
Tropical Cyclone Sally moved on a slow southwesterly track throughout
its life as a tropical cyclone, guided by a large mid-level ridge
situated to its southeast. The cyclone's peak intensity of 45 kts was
reached on the 9th; after that Sally weakened quickly due to the combined
deleterious effects of dry air and increased vertical shear. Perth
downgraded Sally to a tropical LOW at 0100 UTC on 10 January, and the
final bulletin at 0400 UTC placed the former tropical cyclone's center
about 250 nm south-southwest of the Cocos Islands. Interestingly, JTWC's
final center position on Sally at 10/0600 UTC was almost three degrees
of longitude east of Perth's. The peak MSW estimated by JTWC during
Sally's life was 40 kts on the 8th and 9th. An 85-GHz image taken at
1133 UTC on 8 January revealed a very small "red" core with a small eye
feature visible.
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone Sally may be found
at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/AUSTRALIA/2005_03U-09S_SALLY_BT.gif>
As far as is known Tropical Cyclone Sally was responsible for no
damage nor casualties.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
TROPICAL LOW
(TC-10S)
13 - 19 January
-----------------------------------
The tropical LOW identified as TC-10S by JTWC was quite likely a
redevelopment of the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Raymond.
According to information received from Geoffrey Garden of the Darwin
TCWC, the ex-Raymond vortex travelled eastward across the Northern
Territory and moved into the Gulf of Carpentaria on the 8th of January.
The cloud system associated with Raymond tended to dissipate after
landfall and there wasn't much of a satellite signature from the 5th
to the 7th, but convection flared up significantly in the Gulf of
Carpentaria on the 8th, and the cloud mass subsequently tracked westward
across the Top End of the Northern Territory on the 10th, moving along
with the low-level vortex. (Thanks to Geoffrey for sending me this
information.)
JTWC began mentioning the rejuvenated disturbance on the 12th,
assigning a 'fair' potential for development as the system began to move
into the Timor Sea. Later in the day the center temporarily moved back
over land near Kalumburu with convection becoming cyclic, but by 1600
UTC on the 13th had moved back over water about 120 nm north of Yampi
Sound. Deep convection was persisting over the LLCC, vertical shear
was low, divergence aloft was favorable, and 850-mb vorticity was
increasing. Perth's outlook issued at 13/2200 UTC placed the center
approximately 250 nm north-northeast of Broome, and the LOW was given
a moderate potential for development in 2 or 3 days. The first gale
warning was issued by Perth at 15/0000 UTC, and JTWC issued a TCFA at
1500 UTC. JTWC's first warning on TC-10S was issued at 15/1800 UTC,
placing the center about 350 nm north-northwest of Port Hedland, Western
Australia, with peak 1-min avg winds estimated at 35 kts.
Guided by a low to mid-level ridge to the south, the tropical LOW
continued to move westward away from the Australian coastline. On the
16th the system's organization began to decrease--by 16/1800 UTC the
center had become partially-exposed east of decreasing convection.
BoM Perth never upgraded the LOW to tropical cyclone status, but kept on
issuing gale warnings through 16/2200 UTC due to the presence of gales
well-removed from the center in the southwestern quadrant. Gale warnings
were discontinued at 17/0000 UTC with the LOW located several hundred
miles southeast of Christmas Island. JTWC issued their final warning at
17/0600 UTC. The remnant LOW continued westward through the 19th--at
19/0400 UTC it was located approximately 125 nm south of Cocos Island.
No more references to the system were made in Perth's daily STWOs.
A graphic displaying the track of the tropical LOW may be found at
the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/AUSTRALIA/2005_10S_LOW_BT.gif>
No reports of damage or casualties have been received. Huang
Chunliang sent one rainfall observation taken before the disturbance
had moved back out over the Timor Sea. Victoria River Downs (WMO 94232,
16.4S/131.0E) measured 104.4 mm of rain between 11/0000 and 12/0000 UTC.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
TROPICAL CYCLONE TIM
(TC-13S)
23 - 26 January
----------------------------------------
A STWO issued by JTWC at 0800 UTC on 22 January mentioned an area of
convection which had persisted about 500 nm north of Learmonth, Western
Australia. Convection was increasing over an established LLCC, and
vertical shear was moderate, even though the disturbance was located
beneath the axis of the subtropical ridge. Also, Perth's tropical
weather outlook for Northwestern Australian waters on the 22nd mentioned
a tropical LOW with a moderate potential for development. The system
began to develop fairly rapidly on the 23rd. Perth issued the first gale
warning at 23/0900 UTC, and just four hours later upgraded the LOW to
Tropical Cyclone Tim. At 1300 UTC Tim was located about 375 nm southeast
of Christmas Island, moving southwestward at 6 kts. JTWC issued a TCFA
for the system at 1400 UTC due to an increase in deep convection around
the LLCC, and the first warning on TC-13S followed at 1800 UTC.
Throughout its short life Tropical Cyclone Tim moved on a slow west-
southwesterly course as it was steered by an anticyclone lying to its
southeast. Tim's rapid development which earned it a name did not
continue. The MSW as estimated by Perth peaked at 45 kts at 2200 UTC
on 23 January--this was reduced to 40 kts twelve hours later. JTWC's
peak estimated 1-min avg MSW for Tim was 35 kts. Tim began to weaken
on the 25th, and BoM Perth issued the final gale warning on the minimal
cyclone at 25/1000 UTC, locating the center approximately 400 nm south-
southwest of Christmas Island. (JTWC had finalized the system at 25/0600
UTC.) The remnant LOW continued westward and was located a few hundred
miles southeast of the Cocos Islands early on the 26th.
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone Tim may be found
at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/AUSTRALIA/2005_05U-13S_TIM_BT.gif>
No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Cyclone
Tim have been received.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for January: 1 tropical/hybrid LOW
1 severe tropical cyclone **
** - system originated east of 160E in Fiji's AOR
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Northeast Australia/Coral Sea tropical cyclones are the warnings
and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at
Brisbane, Queensland, and Darwin, Northern Territory, and on very
infrequent occasions, by the centre at Port Moresby, Papua New
Guinea. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging
period unless otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor-
dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the
source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included
in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Northeast Australia/Coral Sea
Tropical Activity for January
-----------------------------
No tropical cyclones formed in Southern Hemisphere waters between
135E and 160E during January, but one interesting system developed which
produced significant effects in Queensland and New South Wales. The
initial tropical LOW had very good development potential except for one
thing: it was located inland over the Cape York Peninsula. Later, a
new center formed under some of the LOW's associated convection and moved
offshore, strengthening as a hybrid system. During this stage very
heavy rainfall fell over parts of the two Australian states, and there
were also some drownings reported due to heavy surf. Following is a
report on this interesting weather system written by Simon Clarke.
Also, there was a visitor to the Australian Region from east of 160E
during January. Severe Tropical Cyclone Kerry entered Brisbane's AOR
shortly after intensifying to hurricane strength. The cyclone, however,
stalled and moved generally southward for several days just west of 160E.
The report on Kerry can be found below in the section covering the South
Pacific basin.
CAPE YORK LOW & CORAL SEA HYBRID
(NRL Invest Areas 98P & 92P)
19 - 25 January
----------------------------------------------------
A. Synoptic History
-------------------
A tropical LOW first became apparent in a position to the northeast
of the tip of the Cape York Peninsula (Queensland, Australia) late on
19 January 2005. The LOW moved south-southwestward and overland on
Cape York near Iron Range on 19 January before it could reach cyclone
status. However, despite this, a vigorous monsoonal flow from both
sides of Cape York maintained the depression's LLCC and the system
became a persistent and a clearly-identifiable feature in satellite
imagery for several days to come.
Despite being over land, infrared and water vapor imagery depicted
a small region of cycling convection located primarily along the
southern periphery of the LLCC. An upper-level analysis revealed
that the LLCC was vertically stacked to a subtropical anticyclone and
with low vertical wind shear and good divergence; dynamics were
favourable for rapid development into a cyclone if the system should
move back over water.
Accordingly, RMSC Brisbane issued its first Cyclone WATCH for coastal
and island communities between Mapoon and Gilbert River Mouth on Cape
York Peninsula at 19/0616 UTC as the 1003-hPa tropical LOW, located
approximately 130 km east-southeast of Weipa (13.0S/143.2E), threatened
to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Despite this the LOW maintained an inland path down the middle of
Cape York Peninsula, maintaining its impressive presence on satellite
imagery. However, Cyclone Watches were discontinued at 21/0004 UTC
as it became clear that the LOW, now located near latitude 14.3S/142.6E
(approximately 55 km west-southwest of Coen), would not move into the
Gulf of Carpentaria as earlier predicted.
By 23 January, the main centre was located near Georgetown
(18.3S/143.6E). At this time the LOW became elongated, stretching
towards the northeast coast of Queensland. A large band of heavy rain
developed near Townsville in an area of backing winds with height
(warm air advection) and a new centre rapidly formed in this region
near Lucinda. This centre quickly moved out to sea. (NOTE: The
new and perhaps "multi-centred" hybrid LOW was effectively a
reorganisation of the initial system, and for purposes of this report
is treated as a single system).
The first gale warning was issued for the southern quadrant of the
new 999-hPa LOW "centre" located near 18.5S/147.0E at 23/1600 UTC.
Brisbane also commenced issuing Severe Weather Warnings for the LOW
as it moved to sea in the anticipation that it might intensify
further, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall to the nearby
coastline. However, the LOW never regained its initial tropical
characteristics, and by 25 January was drawn into a developing trough
to the south and accelerated to the southeast, parallel to but well
off the Queensland and northern New South Wales coastlines.
A graphic display of this interesting and unusual system may be
found at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/AUSTRALIA/2005_92P_BT.gif>
B. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Despite not reaching cyclone status, the depression turned into a
killer, bringing heavy rains to the southern tropical coast between
Townsville and Mackay. Two cars collided with a truck near
Yalboroo, south of Proserpine (Queensland) in heavy rain associated
with the depression on 23 January, resulting in two deaths and
injuries to three others. A further rescue was reported in the
Townsville region when a truck driver became stranded on his vehicle.
An unofficial but reliable source reported 642 mm of rain in 24 hours
in a location just to the west of Townsville on 23 January. Falls of
up to 200 mm were widespread in this region.
Lifeguard authorities in the Sydney region reported five drownings
between Newcastle and Wollongong as the remnant LLCC of the tropical
LOW intensified as a mid-latitude depression off the New South Wales
coast over the following weekend (29-30 January), developing a long
fetch of gales between it and a high-pressure system located near New
Zealand.
C. Rainfall Observations
------------------------
Following are some rainfall observations compiled and sent by
Huang Chunliang:
Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed:
CAIRNS AERO (WMO94287 16.9S/145.8E) 106.6 mm [19/00-20/00Z]
CARDWELL (WMO94292 18.3S/146.0E) 103.2 mm [19/00-20/00Z]
CAIRNS AERO (WMO94287 16.9S/145.8E) 132.2 mm [21/00-22/00Z]
INGHAM COMPOSITE (WMO95291 18.7S/146.2E) 143.8 mm [22/00-23/00Z]
CHARTERS TOWERS AIRPORT (-------- 20.0S/146.3E) 129.0 mm [22/00-23/00Z]
AYR DPI RESEARCH STATION (WMO95295 19.6S/147.4E) 113.6 mm [22/00-23/00Z]
GEORGETOWN POST OFFICE (WMO94275 18.3S/143.6E) 106.0 mm [22/00-23/00Z]
HAMILTON ISLAND AIRPORT (WMO94368 20.4S/149.0E) 266.0 mm [23/00-24/00Z]
PROSERPINE AIRPORT (-------- 20.5S/148.5E) 190.8 mm [23/00-24/00Z]
AYR ALVA BEACH (-------- 19.5S/147.5E) 145.2 mm [23/00-24/00Z]
MACKAY MO (WMO94367 21.1S/149.2E) 136.0 mm [23/00-24/00Z]
AYR DPI RESEARCH STATION (WMO95295 19.6S/147.4E) 116.8 mm [23/00-24/00Z]
CHARTERS TOWERS AIRPORT (-------- 20.0S/146.3E) 101.2 mm [23/00-24/00Z]
AYR DPI RESEARCH STATION (WMO95295 19.6S/147.4E) 143.4 mm [24/00-25/00Z]
INGHAM COMPOSITE (WMO95291 18.67/146.2E) 115.6 mm [25/00-26/00Z]
(Report written by Simon Clarke with contributions by Huang Chunliang)
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for January: 1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity **
1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity
** - No warnings were issued on this system by JTWC
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories
issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for
waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for
waters south of latitude 25S). References to sustained winds imply
a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere
centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings
are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information
describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation
features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC
warnings.
South Pacific Tropical Activity for January
-------------------------------------------
Two tropical cyclones sprang to life in the South Pacific during
January. Tropical Cyclone Kerry moved through the islands of Vanuatu
early in the month as a fairly weak cyclone, then strengthened to
hurricane intensity as it neared the boundary with the Australian Region
(160E). Warning responsibility was handed over to Brisbane, and the
remainder of Kerry's life for the most part was spent just inside the
Australian Region as it trekked southward. The other South Pacific
cyclone was the short-lived, weak Tropical Cyclone Lola, which formed
at the end of the month and continued for a few days into February.
Lola did cause significant agricultural losses on some of the islands
in the Kingdom of Tonga. Reports on both Kerry and Lola, authored
by Simon Clarke, follow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY
(TD-05F / TC-08P)
3 - 15 January
------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
Kerry was first identified as a westward-moving depression (TD-05F)
to the north of Fiji as early as 3 January 2005. At this time the
relatively disorganized cloud mass was located in a favourable
environment for further development. Environmental shear was weak and
SSTs were 30 C. A 250-hPa prognosis indicated that the subtropical
ridge, located just north of TD-05F, was drifting south maintaining low
shear and diffluence in the vicinity of TD-05F. By 3 January convection
mushroomed close to the low-level circulation and the outlook for the
depression to develop further was upgraded to moderate/good by RSMC Fiji.
The island of Funafuti (WMO 91643, 8.5S/179.2E), to the north and east
of the developing system, picked up 193.8 mm of rain between 03/0000 and
04/0000 UTC. (This information from Huang Chunliang.)
The improving trend continued with banding features becoming apparent
on satellite imagery, and the first gale warning was issued early on
4 January 2005. Despite a minor short-lived hiccup in development
involving displacement of the LLCC to the north of the main CDO, the
depression was upgraded to cyclone status at 05/1800 UTC as overall
organization improved. Newly-named Tropical Cyclone Kerry was located
near 13.3S/171.5E at this time, or about 315 nm northeast of Port Vila,
Vanuatu, and was moving southwest at about 11 knots. Maximum 10-minute
average winds near the centre were estimated to be about 40 kts.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Despite forecasts of intensification, Kerry remained weak while
moving to the southwest and then west-southwest as middle-level dry
air was drawn into the northern semicircle, suppressing deep convection
around the CDO. Tropical Cyclone Kerry picked up forward speed as it
approached Vanuatu, crossing the central part of the island nation
between 06/1800 UTC and 07/0000 UTC. Interaction with the larger
islands also assisted in keeping Kerry weak (10-min max winds of 40
kts). During its passage through Vanuatu, the centre crossed over
Pentecost Island, passed to the north of Ambrym and exited via
Malakula. Approximately 4 hours of heavy rains and gusty winds were
reported during the morning by a weather observer in Ambae just to
the north of where the cyclone crossed with little damage other than
shredded leaves and branches. This was typical of the reports of the
minor damage reported through the affected islands during Kerry's
passage and is not surprising given the intensity and speed of the
tropical cyclone. There were no reported casualties.
Once clear of Vanuatu, Kerry continued to move west-southwestward at
a steady 20-kt pace driven along the northern side of a deep subtropical
ridge. The process of intensification commenced as it moved west and
closer to the upper-level ridge axis, the centre passing close to the
Isles Surprises (New Caledonia territory). By 07/1200 UTC, Kerry was a
severe tropical cyclone near 17.8S/163.6E, or approximately 300 nm
northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. (Editor's Note: Kerry's winds at
this juncture had reached 50 kts--a severe tropical 'storm' by the
classification system applied by MFR and JMA. However, a 'severe
tropical cyclone' per Australian nomenclature is a cyclone of hurricane
intensity.)
The system's organisation continued to improve with a cloud-filled
eye evident at times. Kerry's westerly motion slowed down in response
to a low-level ridge building to its southwest. At this time there was
considerable divergence in the available models regarding future movement
with some predicting a turn to the west or west-northwest, north of the
low-level ridge located to the south, and other models suggesting
recurvature ahead of an upper-level trough.
At 08/0600 UTC and near 18.3S/160.0E Severe Tropical Cyclone Kerry
moved into Brisbane's AOR. Peak intensity of 970 hPa and maximum 10-min
avg winds of 75 kts were attained near 18.3S/159.3E at 09/1800 UTC, the
centre then being located roughly 475 nm northwest of Noumea. Peak
intensity was maintained for thirty hours as Kerry commenced a slow
track to the south-southeast, progressively weakening under a combination
of strong vertical wind shear associated with an approaching upper-level
trough and entrainment of drier, cooler air from the southwest. A strong
surface ridge eventually pushed a considerably-weakened Kerry to the
west-southwest on 13 January 2005 toward Australia's south Queensland
coastline. By this stage, the upper-level structure of the cyclone had
been completely disrupted due to strong vertical wind shear with the
LLCC exposed. Kerry lost cyclone status near 24.5S/159.3E, or about
400 nm east-northeast of Brisbane, at 13/1800 UTC.
JTWC's estimated peak 1-min avg MSW of 90 kts is in reasonably close
agreement with Brisbane's 10-min avg peak MSW of 75 kts.
The remaining exposed LLCC of ex-Kerry proved to be a remarkably
resilient feature, moving southward approximately 80 nm off the southern
Queensland coast only to be pushed northwards again several days later.
The LLCC was still evident in high resolution visible satellite imagery
on 20 January, a week after losing tropical cyclone status. It
eventually washed out completely to the east of Queensland's Sunshine
Coast (near 25.5S/157.0E).
Kerry's main influence on Queensland's weather was to strengthen
winds along the coastline with the assistance of the strong ridge
extending from the high-pressure system to the south. Heavy rains were
reported in the Proserpine region on Queensland's central coast on
9 January. Strong winds and associated rough seas along the coast forced
the closure of many beaches on the Sunshine and Gold Coasts during the
busy school holiday period. However, rainfall totals along the southern
part of the Queensland coast were not particularly significant.
A satellite image of Kerry can be found at:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12665>
with further images showing the path of Kerry across the Coral Sea here:
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/index.cgi?page=products&category=Year%202005%20Storm%20Events&event=Tropical%20Cyclone%20Kerry>
A graphic displaying the track of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kerry may
be found at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/PACIFIC_FIJI/2005_05F_04U-08P-KERRY_BT.gif>
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
As noted above, minor damage was incurred when Tropical Cyclone Kerry
moved through the islands of the Republic of Vanuatu. There were no
other reports of damage associated with this cyclone. Also, fortunately
there were no reported casualties.
(Report written by Simon Clarke)
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA
(TD-06F)
26 January - 2 February
-------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
Lola was the third tropical cyclone of the season to form in the
Southwest Pacific for the 2004/05 season. The storm was first
identified as a tropical disturbance (TD-06F) in the intertropical
convergence zone near the islands of Vanuatu on 27 January 2005. The
depression's LLCC was detached from the convection, making its centre
difficult to locate. However, banding was already evident detached
from the LLCC in its northern and eastern quadrants.
The LLCC moved steadily toward the east at 5 kts into an improving
environment of active surface convergence, good upper-level diffluence
at 250 hPa, and decreasing westerly shear. Also, SSTs were high
(approximately 30 C).
On its approach to the northern islands of Fiji, TD-06F accelerated
and commenced a southeastward motion of 15 kts, passing over Vanua
Levu in Fiji's Northern Division on 30 January. An area of gales
moved with the depression and rough seas were reported. However,
there was no significant damage associated with TD-06F in Fiji.
At this time, TD-06F exhibited an asymmetrical shape and most global
models had little faith in developing TD-06F further. However, by
31/1400 UTC the previously exposed LLCC had slipped underneath the
developing CDO. With a CP estimated at 992 hPa, TD-06F was upgraded
to cyclone status near 21.8S/176.8W and named Lola. This location is
also approximately 100 nm west-southwest of Tongatapu.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Tropical Cyclone Lola continued to track to the southeast with slight
intensification (minimum CP of 990 hPa and peak 10-min avg winds of
40 kts). However, dry air intrusion from the southwest quadrant and
strong westerly winds aloft hindered any further development and the
LLCC was soon re-exposed.
Lola was downgraded at 02/0000 UTC near 25.2S/176.6W, or about 250 nm
south-southwest of Tongatapu. This position represents a relocation of
over 100 nm westward from the previous warning position. The remnant
depression slowed down in response to the ridge of high pressure to the
south and persisted as a westward-moving and fully-exposed depression
for several days.
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone Lola may be found
at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/PACIFIC_FIJI/2005_06F_LOLA_BT.gif>
C. Damage and Casualties
-------------------------
Lola brought strong winds to parts of central and southern Tonga.
Squally winds and localised heavy rains were reported from Ha'apai,
Nomuka and Tongatapu Group, but there were no reports of significant
structural damage. However, significant crop losses were reported
with heavy windfalls of fruit, especially of mangoes, tava, breadfruit,
avocados and bananas. Tongatapu, reported as having its first bumper
crop mango season since 1998, was left with "carpets of mangoes" under
the trees.
Lola's life was short and relatively inconsequential. In fact, the
JTWC did not recognise Lola as a tropical cyclone in spite of warnings
issued by RSMC Fiji.
(Report written by Simon Clarke)
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>
JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterry website:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen.
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
Landsea, and John Diebolt):
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
http://mpittweather.com>
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
Report (ATCR) for 2004 (2003-2004 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2004 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2004 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: [email protected]
John Wallace (Assistance with Eastern North Pacific)
E-mail: [email protected]
Huang Chunliang (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: [email protected]
Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
E-mail: [email protected]
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
|
Document: summ0501.htm
Updated: 17th May, 2005 |
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] |