[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary November 2004
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary November 2004 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
NOVEMBER, 2004
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
*************************************************************************
NOVEMBER HIGHLIGHTS
--> Philippines experience deadly visits from tropical systems
--> Surprise Atlantic storm forms on last day of official season
--> Two storms--one intense--form in Southwest Indian Ocean
--> Arabian Sea cyclone forms almost on equator
*************************************************************************
***** Feature of the Month for November *****
A REVIEW OF THE 2003-2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON
FOR THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
Following is a tabular summary of all the tropical depressions
and tropical cyclones which occurred in the Southern Hemisphere
between 1 July 2003 and 30 June 2004 as reported in the Monthly
Global Tropical Cyclone Summaries prepared by the author.
(1) Number - this is the sequential cyclone number assigned by JTWC
in Hawaii.
(2) Name - the name (if any) assigned by the responsible Tropical
Cyclone Warning Centre. For systems in the South Indian Ocean
west of 90E and in the Southwest Pacific east of 160E which were
unnamed, the alphanumeric designator applied by La Reunion or
Fiji, respectively, is given in this column.
(3) Dates - range of dates for which tracking information for the
cyclone is available in the Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks files
prepared by the author. The dates given in most cases refer to
the time the system was in warning status and generally do not
include the pre-depression stages of the disturbance.
(4) Pressure - Lowest central pressure (either estimated or recorded)
during the lifetime of the cyclone. An asterisk (*) following
the pressure indicates the reading was an actual measured
pressure. Central pressure is given in millibars, which is
numerically equivalent to hectopascals.
(5) MSW 1-min avg - maximum 1-minute average sustained windspeed in
knots as assigned by JTWC. An asterisk (*) following the MSW
indicates that it was an actual measured value.
(6) MSW 10-min avg - maximum 10-minute average sustained windspeed
in knots as assigned by the responsible Tropical Cyclone Warning
Centre. An asterisk (*) following the MSW indicates that it was
an actual measured value.
(7) Basins - tropical cyclone basins where the cyclone tracked during
its life:
SWI - Southwest Indian Ocean - West of 90E
AUW - Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean - 90E to 135E
AUE - Northeast Australia/Coral Sea - 135E to 160E
SPA - South Pacific Ocean - East of 160E
SAT - South Atlantic Ocean
A number in parentheses (e.g. (1) ) following an entry refers to
a note following the entries for the given basin. A separate table
is given for each of the four Southern Hemisphere basins.
Abbreviations for Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres:
JTWC - Joint Typhoon Warning Center, formerly on Guam, now at
Pearl Harbor, Hawaii
MFR - Meteo France Reunion (RSMC La Reunion)
RSMC - Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
************************************************************************
SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
JTWC NAME DATES CENT MSW MSW BASIN
NUM PRS 1-MIN 10-MIN
(mb) (kts) (kts)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
01T Catarina 19-28 Mar --- 85 -- SAT (1)
NOTES:
(1) The number "01T" was unofficially assigned by Julian Heming of the
UK Meteorological Office. The name "Catarina" was apparently used
by the Brazilian news media. The track included in the March
tropical cyclone tracks file was supplied by Roger Edson. Prior
to Catarina, back in January, another tropical cyclone of tropical
depression or minimal tropical storm intensity occurred just off the
tropical Brazilian coastline. No track was available for this
system.
************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
JTWC NAME DATES CENT MSW MSW BASIN
NUM PRS 1-MIN 10-MIN
(mb) (kts) (kts)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
01S Abaimba 29 Sep-04 Oct 990 50 45 SWI
02S Beni 09-22 Nov 935 105 100 SWI
03S Cela 05-21 Dec 968 65 65 SWI
06S Darius 29 Dec-04 Jan 976 65 55 SWI
09S Elita 26 Jan-12 Feb 974 65 60 SWI
10S Frank 27 Jan-07 Feb 925 125 105 SWI
16S Gafilo 02-15 Mar 895 140 125 SWI
21S (MFR-11) 13-28 Mar 1002 30 25 AUW/SWI
23S Juba 05-15 May 980 65 55 SWI
************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA / SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN
JTWC NAME DATES CENT MSW MSW BASIN
NUM PRS 1-MIN 10-MIN
(mb) (kts) (kts)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
04S Jana 07-12 Dec 960 80 75 AUW
05P Debbie 17-21 Dec 970 65 65 AUE/AUW
08S Ken 01-06 Jan 992 35 40 AUW
11S Linda 28 Jan-01 Feb 978 45 55 SWI/AUW
--- ----- 08-12 Feb 994 -- 30 AUW
14S Monty 26 Feb-02 Mar 935 110 95 AUW
17S Nicky-Helma 08-13 Mar 972 70 60 AUW/SWI
18S Fay 14-28 Mar 910 120 115 AUW
20S Oscar-Itseng 20-28 Mar 935 110 95 AUW/SWI
************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA / CORAL SEA
JTWC NAME DATES CENT MSW MSW BASIN
NUM PRS 1-MIN 10-MIN
(mb) (kts) (kts)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
--- ----- 30 Dec-01 Jan 996 -- 35 AUE (1)
12P Fritz 08-12 Feb 985 35 45 AUE
15P Evan 29 Feb-06 Mar 994 35 40 AUE/AUW
--- ----- 02-05 Mar 994 -- 55 AUE (2)
19P Grace 18-24 Mar 985 35 50 AUE/SPA
--- (13F) 10-20 Apr 1002 -- 30 AUE/SPA
NOTES:
(1) System was described in warnings from Brisbane as a monsoon LOW.
The center was actually east of 160E during much of its life.
(2) System was not a true tropical LOW but more hybrid in nature.
************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN
JTWC NAME DATES CENT MSW MSW BASIN
NUM PRS 1-MIN 10-MIN
(mb) (kts) (kts)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
07P Heta 28 Dec-11 Jan 915 140 115 SPA
13P Ivy 21-29 Feb 935 110 90 SPA
--- (06F) 20-22 Mar 994 -- 25 SPA (1)
--- (08F) 30 Mar-01 Apr 1002 -- 40 SPA (1)
--- (09F) 01-03 Apr 1000 -- 30 SPA (1)
22P (10F) 04-09 Apr 995 35 32 SPA
--- (12F) 07-12 Apr 1002 -- 25 SPA
--- ----- 02-03 May 998 -- -- SPA (2)
NOTES:
(1) Gales were associated with these systems but were well-removed from
the center.
(2) No maximum wind estimates were given in the Fiji summaries for this
system, and it likely was not purely tropical but rather hybrid in
nature. Peripheral gales of up to 40 kts were forecast for this
system.
************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for November: 1 tropical storm
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some
additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a
1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.
Atlantic Tropical Activity for November
---------------------------------------
A non-tropical LOW in the central Atlantic in late November began to
acquire subtropical characteristics as the end of the month drew nigh.
By midday on 30 November--the last day of the official 2004 Atlantic
hurricane season--Tropical Storm Otto was christened after the system
had developed tropical characteristics. The last time that a tropical
storm was named on 30 November was in 1989 when Tropical Storm Karen
formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Hurricanes Nicole and Olga
of 1998 and 2001, respectively, were still operating at the end of the
June to November season and continued into the month of December. And
in 2003 Tropical Storms Odette and Peter both formed during the first
week of December.
A couple of other systems which occurred during November deserve some
mention. During the second week of the month an area of disturbed
weather formed just north of Panama and extended northeastward across
the central Caribbean to Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The convective
activity was triggered by the interaction of an elongated area of low
pressure and an upper-level trough. The system's organization improved
during the afternoon of 9 November and the STWOs issued by TPC/NHC
mentioned the possibility that a tropical or subtropical cyclone could
form in the area. Upper-level winds remained only marginally favorable
for strengthening and the system was never able to develop well-enough
to be classified as a depression. The primary threat presented by the
LOW was the potential for very heavy rainfall with attendant flooding
and mudslides in the Antilles.
A large non-tropical low-pressure system formed on 11 November and
was located about 600 nm southwest of the southernmost Azores Islands.
Gales had developed and some convection was beginning to form near the
LLCC. The potential for subtropical storm development was mentioned in
the STWOs issued by TPC/NHC, but upper-level winds remained unfavorable
for further subtropical or tropical development of this system.
A short report on Tropical Storm Otto, based on the official TPC/NHC
storm report, follows.
TROPICAL STORM OTTO
(TC-16)
27 November - 5 December
--------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Otto's origins lay with a cold front which emerged
off the East Coast of the United States on 21 November. This front
moved slowly eastward and eventually stalled about midway between
Bermuda and the Azores Islands on the 25th. An extratropical LOW had
formed along the front about 1000 nm southwest of the Azores by 0000
UTC on 26 November. Later on the same day the occluded surface low-
pressure system deepened and gales began to affect a large area. The
upper-level trough which had initiated the LOW's development continued
to dig southward and formed a cut-off LOW to the south of the surface
LOW late on the 26th.
The surface and upper-level LOWs moved southwestward slowly in tandem
for a couple of days. Late on the 28th weak ridging to the north of the
upper-level LOW formed over the surface LOW and convective banding
features began to develop near the LLCC. Also, surface data and analyses
indicated that the cyclone's frontal structure had dissipated. In post-
analysis it was determined that the system had acquired subtropical storm
characteristics by around 1200 UTC on 29 November while centered about
1000 nm east-southeast of Bermuda. The subtropical LOW then began moving
northwestward through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge
located to the north. Convection continued to increase over the LLCC
and AMSU satellite-derived temperature data indicated that the system had
transformed into a warm-core tropical cyclone by the 30th. The first
advisory on Tropical Storm Otto was issued at 2100 UTC, locating the
center approximately 700 nm east of Bermuda.
During its life as a tropical storm Otto meandered over relatively
cool SSTs of around 21-23 C in a region of relatively weak vertical
shear, but a marginally favorable upper-level flow pattern allowed the
cyclone to maintain some central deep convection. Otto turned slowly
southeastward on 1 December as vertical shear increased, causing the
system to begin slowly weakening. Mid-level dry air entrainment also
contributed to Otto's demise. The storm was downgraded to a tropical
depression at 1200 UTC on 2 December, and Otto became a non-convective
remnant LOW on 3 December about 800 nm southeast of Bermuda.
Operationally, Otto's peak MSW was estimated at 45 kts at 0600 UTC
on 1 December. However, the "best track" indicates that the peak
intensity of 45 kts occurred during the subtropical storm stage and
that during the tropical storm portion of Otto's life the MSW never
exceeded 40 kts.
This report was condensed from the official TPC/NHC storm report on
Tropical Storm Otto, authored by Stacy Stewart. The report may be
accessed at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004otto.shtml?>
The report seems to indicate that Otto was named as a subtropical storm
on 29 November. However, the name was not assigned until the first
advisory as a tropical storm was issued at 30/2100 UTC. NHC employs
a fairly restrictive definition of a subtropical storm, i.e., not all
"hybrid" storm systems--not even all non-frontal systems--are considered
subtropical storms. There is a broad spectrum of cyclone types based on
their energetics and thermal characteristics, and the boundaries between
the three primary categories of tropical, subtropical and extratropical
are somewhat fuzzy. Hence, it is not always possible to make the best
determination as to how to classify a cyclone in real time, and very
often it is during the post-storm analysis process that it is decided to
reclassify a non-tropical LOW as a subtropical cyclone. Such was the
case with the early stages of Tropical Storm Peter in December of 2003,
and with the June, 1997, and October, 2000, subtropical storms.
(Brief report written by Gary Padgett, based upon TPC/NHC storm report
written by Stacy Stewart)
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for November: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for November: 3 tropical depressions **
1 tropical storm ++
1 typhoon
1 super typhoon
** - two of these were classified as tropical depressions by JMA only;
another by JMA and PAGASA
++ - classified as a tropical storm by several Asian TCWCs but not
by JTWC
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
unless otherwise noted.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
sends data taken from synoptic observations around the Northwest
Pacific basin. A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for
the assistance they so reliably provide.
In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
area of warning responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for November
------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone activity in November was somewhat above the average,
and the Philippines--the island of Luzon in particular--was the target
of all the named tropical systems forming during the month. After
following an erratic course and executing a loop just east of central
Luzon, Typhoon Muifa/Unding dropped southwestward and struck the south-
eastern portion of the island on the 19th. Only four days later, minor
Tropical Storm Merbok/Violeta struck eastern Luzon. During the closing
days of November, the weak but quite wet Tropical Depression Winnie
brought more misery to the island in the form of torrential rainfall
which led to flash flooding and landslides. Finally, as the month ended
Super Typhoon Nanmadol/Yoyong developed south of Guam and raced at a
very fast clip toward the Philippines, crossing central Luzon on the
2nd of December. Reports on all these tropical cyclones follow, three
being written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by Huang
Chunliang and Michael V. Padua.
Because Unding, Violeta, Winnie and Yoyong (their PAGASA names) all
affected the Philippines within a space of two weeks, it is all but
impossible to determine the exact number of casualties caused by each
one. Information contained in Kevin Boyle's report on Typhoon Nanmadol
(the last one) indicates that over 1000 deaths were related to the parade
of tropical cyclones. More information on the effects of these storms in
the Philippines may be found at the following URL:
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/dbc.nsf/doc100?openForm>
Additionally there were two weak systems which were classified as
tropical depressions by JMA only. The first of these formed on the 16th
west-southwest of Guam and remained essentially stationary through the
18th. This disturbance was given a fair potential for development at one
point by JTWC, but no TCFA was issued. The second weak system formed a
few hundred miles east of central Luzon on 21 November and was classed as
a tropical depression by JMA for only 12 hours. This weak disturbance
was not mentioned by JTWC in their STWOs. No tracks were included for
these weak systems in the companion tropical cyclone tracks file.
TYPHOON MUIFA
(TC-29W / TY 0425 / UNDING)
14 - 26 November
-----------------------------------------------
Muifa: contributed by Macau, is a type of plum blossom which can
withstand very cold weather--also represents a strong-minded
Chinese
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The disturbance that was to become Typhoon Muifa was first mentioned
in JTWC's STWO at 1600 UTC 13 November when it was located approximately
215 nm north of Palau. At this time, development of a significant
tropical cyclone was assessed as 'poor'. A TCFA was issued at 13/2000
UTC after the system showed a rapid spurt in development, and the first
warning followed at 14/0000 UTC. At this time Tropical Depression 29W
exhibited a partially-exposed LLCC with the strongest convection in the
western semicircle. The disorganized-looking cyclone tracked westward,
accelerating to around 14 kts along the southern boundary of the sub-
ridge situated to the north, and became a 35-kt tropical storm at
14/1200 UTC when it was centred 550 nm east-southeast of Manila,
Philippines. It was named Muifa at 14/1800 UTC after JMA upped their
10-min avg MSW to 35 kts. PAGASA had assigned the name Unding at 14/0000
UTC after the tropical cyclone had invaded their area of responsibility.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
At 0000 UTC 15 November Tropical Storm Muifa/Unding was moving west-
northwest at 9 kts approximately 430 nm east-southeast of Manila,
Philippines. The system didn't look that much more impressive with most
of the deep convection separated from the LLCC. Also, it was discovered
that the centre was positioned further east than previously analysed.
The MSW remained at the 35-kt threshold for the rest of the day, although
Muifa gradually became more organized. At 16/0000 UTC the tropical
cyclone turned abruptly towards the north-northeast and decelerated to
4 kts. At this time it was relocated to a position 300 nm east of
Manila, based on multi-spectral and microwave fixes which clearly showed
the LLCC east-southeast of the deep convection. Muifa turned back onto
a west-northwesterly heading and began to intensify. At the time of the
next relocation at 16/0600 UTC, the MSW had climbed to 45 kts and this
repositioning placed the centre closer to Manila, approximately 215 nm
to the east, and under the deep convection. Muifa continued to
strengthen and reached an intensity of 55 kts by 16/1800 UTC. At this
time it appeared much better organised in satellite imagery.
At 0000 UTC 17 November Tropical Storm Muifa/Unding was creeping
slowly westwards approximately 140 nm east of Manila, Philippines. It
was upgraded to a 65-kt typhoon at 17/0600 UTC, but convection had waned
somewhat despite the fact that microwave imagery revealed the early
development of an eye. Erratic movement commenced at 17/1200 UTC and
Muifa began the first leg of its clockwise loop which took a couple of
days to complete. Strengthening had continued and by 17/1800 UTC the
intensity had reached 90 kts. The centre of the typhoon was located
170 nm east-northeast of Manila at this time. Muifa's MSW reached
100 kts at 18/0000 UTC as it moved northwards at around 2 kts. The eye
became better defined in multi-spectral imagery at 18/0600 UTC when the
storm came to a virtual standstill. At 18/1200 UTC Muifa peaked at
115 kts before beginning a marked weakening phase at 18/1800 UTC. The
MSW at this time had decreased to 105 kts. At this time, the northern
eyewall had eroded with the strongest convection located in the southern
portion. The tropical cyclone had veered to a slow southeasterly
heading, seemingly moving away from the Philippines.
Typhoon Muifa/Unding weakened further to 95 kts at 0000 UTC
19 November as its heading slowly pivoted towards the southwest
approximately 200 nm east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. The storm's
forward motion began to increase at 19/0600 UTC as it sank south-
southwestward towards southern Luzon. Muifa/Unding made landfall at
19/1300 UTC in the vicinity of Naga City with a MSW of 70 kts. The
system staggered its way across the Philippine Archipelago, weakening as
it went, and was downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm at 20/0600 UTC.
This intensity was maintained for the rest of the day. By this time,
Muifa/Unding was centred 135 nm south-southwest of Manila, having emerged
into the South China Sea. At 21/0000 UTC a small increase in the MSW to
65 kts meant that Muifa was upgraded back to typhoon intensity. Further
strengthening occurred as the tropical cyclone made its way west to west-
southwestwards across the warm waters of the South China Sea, and by
21/1800 UTC Muifa had re-strengthened into a 90-kt typhoon approximately
440 nm east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
A slight weakening occurred at 0000 UTC 22 November as Muifa continued
its way westward towards Vietnam. This heading was taking the storm into
an environment of drier air and increasing vertical shear. At 22/0600
UTC the intensity was down to 75 kts, and by 22/1800 UTC Muifa was a
minimal typhoon located approximately 320 nm east of Ho Chi Minh City,
Vietnam. At this time, the cyclone's motion was still a rather wobbly
west-southwest to southwest movement, and the forward speed had slowed to
around 4 kts. Muifa held onto typhoon status until 23/1200 UTC when the
MSW fell below 65 kts. The system continued to slowly sink generally
towards the southwest, maintaining 55-kt winds for awhile during the
24th, but the intensity further dropped to 45 kts at 24/1200 UTC when it
was centred 215 nm southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The LLCC had,
by this time, become partially-exposed and was moving in a different
direction to that of the deep convection. At 24/1800 UTC microwave
imagery indicated the LLCC was further west than previously analyzed,
supporting a relocation to a position 160 nm south-southwest of Ho Chi
Minh City.
At 0000 UTC 25 November Tropical Storm Muifa was picking up steam and
had veered onto a westerly course at a forward speed of 21 kts. The
system continued to weaken and was downgraded to tropical depression
status at 25/1200 UTC after the MSW had fallen to 30 kts. Six hours
later, Muifa was located off southern Thailand and passing approximately
250 nm south of Bangkok. Interaction with the terrain of Thailand
finished the storm off and the best way to describe the LLCC was as a
disorganized mess. At 26/0000 UTC Muifa turned northward into an
environment of increased wind shear and as the intensity had fallen to
25 kts, JTWC issued the final warning on Typhoon Muifa. The final
position was 120 nm south-southwest of Bangkok. JMA had ceased issuing
bulletins at 25/1200 UTC.
At its peak intensity, Typhoon Muifa was representative of an average-
sized storm with the radius of 64-kt winds extending up to 25 nm from the
centre while gales lay up to 90 nm in the northern semicircle. The 34-kt
wind radii in the southwestern and southeastern quadrants were 110 nm and
80 nm, respectively.
JMA's estimated peak intensity was 80 kts (10-min avg) with the lowest
CP at 955 mb. This strength meant that JMA classified Muifa as a Severe
Typhoon. Also, HKO, CWB and TMD estimated Muifa as an 80-kt typhoon.
NMCC considered Muifa as a stronger 90-kt storm while PAGASA's maximum
intensity during the period it was within their area of responsibility
was 65 kts.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
The death toll reported from the Philippines, based on data released
by the Philippines' National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC), stands
at 68 dead, 160 injured, and 69 unaccounted for. A total of 26,238 houses
were destroyed and 76,062 damaged.
Cost estimates include (in pesos):
Agriculture: 405.3 million
Fisheries: 76.1 million
Infrastructure: 371.0 million
Transmission Facilities: 26.6 million
School Facilities: 130.0 million
Total: 1,008.9 million
Typhoon Muifa also had a destructive impact on Vietnam. Floods and
landslides triggered by the typhoon killed about 40 people, and 40 more
people were reported missing. There were also many villages in the
mountains which needed urgent relief but which could not be quickly
reached. Hoi An, which is the town of world heritage, was hit by the
flood, and more than 80 old houses were in danger of collapse.
D. Huang Chunliang Report from the Philippines
----------------------------------------------
=== Brief Report on Typhoon UNDING {MUIFA} ===
(Rainfall Obs from Philippines)
Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed:
BORONGAN (WMO98553 11.65N 125.43E) 103.6 mm [14/00-15/00Z]
CATANDUANES RADAR (WMO98447 13.98N 124.32E) 246.4 mm [15/00-16/00Z]
VIRAC (WMO98446 13.58N 124.23E) 207.3 mm [15/00-16/00Z]
CATARMAN (WMO98546 12.50N 124.63E) 122.0 mm [15/00-16/00Z]
CATANDUANES RADAR (WMO98447 13.98N 124.32E) 182.4 mm [16/00-17/00Z]
PILI (WMO98442 13.57N 123.27E) 151.2 mm [16/00-17/00Z]
DAET (WMO98440 14.13N 122.98E) 127.6 mm [16/00-17/00Z]
VIRAC (WMO98446 13.58N 124.23E) 123.0 mm [16/00-17/00Z]
SAN JOSE (WMO98531 12.35N 121.03E) 171.4 mm [20/00-21/00Z]
TAYABAS (WMO98427 14.03N 121.58E) 103.1 mm [20/00-21/00Z]
E. Huang Chunliang Report from Thailand
---------------------------------------
=== Brief Report on Typhoon MUIFA from Thailand ===
1. Landfall
-----------
According to the TMD warnings, Tropical Depression MUIFA made landfall
near Amphoe Tha Chana, Surat Thani Province around 25/1500 UTC with a MSW
of 30 knots.
2. Rainfall (Only 24-hr amounts >= 100 mm listed)
-------------------------------------------------
PRACHUAP KHIRIKHAN (WMO48500 11.83N 99.83E) 173.4 mm [25/00-26/00Z]
PRACHUAP KHIRIKHAN (WMO48500 11.83N 99.83E) 251.5 mm [25/06-26/06Z]
PRACHUAP KHIRIKHAN (WMO48500 11.83N 99.83E) 235.8 mm [25/18-26/18Z]
F. Michael Padua Report from Naga City, Philippines
---------------------------------------------------
Michael V. Padua, an amateur meteorologist in Naga City and owner
of the Typhoon 2000 website, had a Close Encounter of the Third Kind
with Typhoon Muifa when the cyclone made landfall near his home.
Michael gained a considerable amount of publicity when, convinced that
the typhoon was headed for the Naga City area but with the official
PAGASA warnings continuing to forecast the storm to head northwestward
away from the region, called the mayor of Naga City and advised him
to make emergency preparations for Typhoon Muifa. Because of Michael's
action, residents of Naga City were somewhat better prepared for the
arrival of the typhoon than they would have been otherwise.
Following is a portion of Michael's write-up about his experiences
(slightly edited):
"As I woke up around 6:30 in the morning (2230 UTC) of 19 November,
I quickly opened the monitor and refreshed the browser to get the
latest satellite image and GOES animation that showed that the system
was starting to track more southerly. This prompted me to call our
local PAGASA (office) to advise them about the imminent danger. They
told me that their main office in Manila still believed that the storm
would move west-northwest. At around 10:00 AM (0200 UTC), I drove
to our school (Naga College Foundation) and stepped into my office
where I got the latest satellite image which continued to show the
southward drift of Muifa accelerating a bit--that was barely 12 hours
before the eyewall passage over Naga. I had already taken some video
of the approach of the outer bands. The pressure reading at the time
was still high (1008.7 hPa) with winds gusting up to 14 kts, blowing
from the northwest.
"As of 11:00 AM (0300 UTC), I received the latest PAGASA bulletin
that still showed no Philippine Storm Warning Signals raised over our
area. This prompted me again to call up our local PAGASA (office) for
the second time around. Then at around 3:00 PM (0700 UTC), I went home
to have a late lunch and created a last-minute animation of Muifa.
After finishing the animation it was already 4:00 in the afternoon!
That was barely six hours before Muifa's destructive approach. By that
time the pressure had already dropped to 1004.7 hPa with northwesterly
winds reaching 22 kts. I checked the 3:30 PM (0730 UTC) satellite
image which showed that Muifa had accelerated further towards the
south to south-southwest. I decided to call our city mayor to advise
him that we must prepare for the possible nighttime approach of Muifa.
I also told him that PAGASA had not yet raised any storm signals over
our area. I explained to him that our city should be under Storm
Signal Number 3, which means that winds of more than 54 kts could be
expected in at least 18 hours, and we were only six hours away from
the destructive winds!
"The mayor thanked me right away and called an emergency meeting,
also notifying the radio stations regarding the danger Naga had to
face. Around 4:30 in the afternoon, I quickly drove back to my office,
where many students of our college were waiting for me to post what
signal we were in. As I plotted the latest position of Muifa (based
on the most recent satellite image), I posted the Signal Number 3 an
hour before the official PAGASA bulletin went out! At that time all
classes and offices were suspended. Then as the PAGASA bulletin went
out around 5:30 PM--the signal was still Number 2!
"At around 10:00 in the evening, the worst of the typhoon arrived!
My Davis Vantage Pro weather station recorded 10-min avg winds of up
to 43 kts (NW to N) with gusts reaching 71 kts (north). The highest
rain rate was 18 inches (457 mm) per hour, and the lowest pressure
recorded was 986.1 hPa at 10:14 PM (1414 UTC). I heard the sound of
flying debris and falling trees outside the house as the winds
continued to scream. I was then waiting for the sudden lull, but
there was no calm. Then, at 11:00 PM the storm's eyewall began to
move farther away from Naga, as confirmed by the rapidly increasing
pressure which was already up to 992.7 hPa. The 10-min avg winds
had diminished to only 27 kts, blowing from the north to northeast
(gusting to only 38 kts). By midnight on 20 November the winds had
dramatically died down to an average of only 16 kts coming from the
east. At around 02:00 AM it was eerily calm as if nothing had
happened! I took a 4-hour sleep afterwards."
To recap, following are the particulars of Michael's location and
his observations:
Date: 19-20 November 2004
Location: Naga City, Philippines
Lat/Lon: 13.6N/123.2E
Instrument: Davis Vantage Pro Weather Station (March 2004 Model)
Highest Wind Speed (gust): North 71 kts at 1400 UTC 19 November
Lowest Barometric Pressure: 986.1 hPa at 1414 UTC 10 November
Highest Rainfall Rate: 457 mm/hour at 1343 UTC 19 November
Storm Total Rainfall: 306.5 mm (14-20 November)
Michael's excellent full report (with graphcs) on Typhoon Muifa/
Unding can be found at the following link:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/stormarchives/2004/unding_report/>
(Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by
Huang Chunliang and Michael V. Padua)
TROPICAL STORM MERBOK
(TS 0426 / VIOLETA)
22 - 23 November
-----------------------------------------
Merbok: contributed by Malaysia, is the spotted-necked dove, most
commonly found in rural areas and in wastelands, and is popular
as a caged bird by Malaysians
A. Storm History
----------------
Tropical Storm Merbok emanated from a disturbance located in the
Philippine Sea and was first recognized as Tropical Depression Violeta
by PAGASA at 0000 UTC 22 November when that agency began issuing
warnings. Six hours later, JMA began writing bulletins and upgraded the
system to a 35-kt tropical storm at 22/1200 UTC, naming the tropical
cyclone Merbok. Tropical Storm Merbok tracked slowly towards the
northwest and made landfall south of Baer on the east coast of Luzon.
The storm's intensity held steady at 35 kts (its peak strength) as it
ambled its way across the mountains of Luzon, finally emerging off the
northwest coast at 0600 UTC 23 November. By this time, Merbok had lost
most or all of its deep convection, the remnants continuing slowly north-
westwards before dissipating southwest of Taiwan. Both JMA and PAGASA
ceased warning coverage at 23/0600 UTC.
PAGASA kept Merbok/Violeta below tropical storm intensity and
estimated a peak intensity of 30 kts for this system. JMA estimated a
peak intensity of 35 kts with a minimum CP of 998 mb. Other agencies to
regard Merbok as a 35-kt tropical storm were NMCC, CWB and TMD while
the maximum intensity of Merbok per HKO advisories was 30 kts. JTWC
issued no warnings and failed to acknowledge the existence of the
disturbance in their STWOs.
Tropical Storm Merbok added to the misery caused by Typhoon Muifa/
Unding in the Philippines, killing 31 people and injuring 187 others.
In addition, 17 persons were reported missing. A total of 337 houses
were destroyed and 1,286 damaged. Total estimated damage reached
253 million pesos with agriculture especially hard hit (210 million
pesos.)
B. Huang Chunliang Report
-------------------------
=== Brief Report on Tropical Storm VIOLETA {MERBOK} ===
(Rainfall Obs from Philippines)
Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed:
CASIGURAN (WMO98336 16.28N 122.12E) 185.2 mm [22/00-23/00Z]
TUGUEGARAO (WMO98233 17.62N 121.73E) 129.3 mm [22/00-23/00Z]
C. Additional Discussion
------------------------
This system was classified as only a tropical depression by
PAGASA and HKO. Agencies classifying Merbok as a tropical storm
included JMA, NMCC, CWB of Taiwan, and the Meteorological Department
of Thailand. I asked Dr. Karl Hoarau to perform an analysis of this
tropical cyclone and his conclusion was that Merbok was a tropical
storm from around 0000 UTC on 22 November through landfall on Luzon
at 1500 UTC that same day, peaking at 40 kts (1-min avg) at 0600
UTC. The Merbok system was never mentioned in the STWOs issued by
JTWC. (This paragraph added by Gary Padgett.)
(Report written by Kevin Boyle with contributions by Huang Chunliang)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WINNIE
27 - 30 November
----------------------------------------------
Tropical Depression Winnie was a large, sloppily-organized system
which brought torrential rains to Luzon, resulting in deadly flashfloods
and landslides. Winnie was named by PAGASA when it formed east of the
central Philippines on 27 November. JMA and the Central Weather Bureau
of Taiwan were the only other agencies classifying Winnie as a tropical
depression. A TCFA was issued by JTWC on the 29th but was cancelled
the next day. The system formed east of the central Philippines on
27 November and moved west-northwestward over southeastern Luzon on
the 29th. After moving well-inland over Luzon, Winnie turned to a
more north-northwesterly track up the west side of the island and
was last mentioned at 0000 UTC on the 30th when it was located along
the northwestern Luzon coast.
According to information received from Michael Padua of Naga City,
news media reports in the Philippines indicated that more than
300 persons lost their lives during the passage of Tropical Depression
Winnie, primarily due to massive flashfloods and landslides in Quezon
and Aurora Provinces triggered by the attendant heavy rains.
Following are some rainfall observations compiled and sent by Huang
Chunliang (thanks to Chunliang for these):
Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed:
DAET (WMO98440 14.13N 122.98E) 156.4 mm [28/00-29/00Z]
CABANATUAN (WMO98330 15.48N 120.97E) 157.8 mm [29/00-30/00Z]
ALABAT (WMO98435 14.08N 122.02E) 144.2 mm [29/00-30/00Z]
CASIGURAN (WMO98336 16.28N 122.12E) 117.6 mm [29/00-30/00Z]
SANGLEY POINT (WMO98428 14.50N 120.92E) 116.4 mm [29/00-30/00Z]
(Brief report written by Gary Padgett with contributions by Huang
Chunliang)
SUPER TYPHOON NANMADOL
(TC-30W / TY 0427 / YOYONG)
28 November - 4 December
-----------------------------------------------
Nanmadol: contributed by Micronesia, is a famous Pohnpei ruin,
sometimes known as the "Venice of the Pacific"
A. Storm Origins
----------------
Super Typhoon Nanmadol developed from a cluster of thunderstorms that
was first mentioned in JTWC's STWO at 2200 UTC 27 November when it was
located approximately 155 nm south-southwest of Pohnpei. Development
potential was assessed as 'fair' and animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery revealed disorganized deep convection consolidating over a
possible LLCC. An upper-level analysis revealed good poleward and
equatorward diffluence and wind shear in the area was light. A TCFA was
issued at 28/0300 UTC after a rapid increase in deep convection was noted
over the LLCC and water vapor imagery showed an increasing radial
outflow. This statement was followed by the first warning at 28/1800 UTC
which centred the newly-formed Tropical Depression 30W some 690 nm east-
southeast of Yap. The system was headed in a westerly direction through
a low to moderate wind shear environment south of the subtropical ridge.
Tropical Depression 31W quickly developed into Tropical Storm Nanmadol
when both JTWC and JMA upgraded their respective MSW estimates to 35 kts
at 29/0000 UTC.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
The Prognostic Reasoning Message issued at 0000 UTC 29 November was
not encouraging to say the least. There was high confidence in the long-
term forecasts that Nanmadol would make landfall over Luzon, Philippines,
an area that had suffered disastrously from heavy rains and flooding from
the recent spate of tropical cyclone activity. Nanmadol continued to
strengthen and reached typhoon intensity at 29/1200 UTC after passing
south of Satawal earlier in the day. At this time infrared and water
vapor imagery indicated a very large and symmetric central dense overcast
and strong radial outflow in all directions. Also, there were signs of
a warm spot, a sign of eye formation. After its upgrade, the storm's
track curved onto a west-northwesterly track which would be maintained
for several more days to come. At 29/1500 UTC Typhoon Nanmadol was
passing the island of Woleai and the intensity had climbed to 75 kts by
29/1800 UTC.
Intensification eased for awhile as Typhoon Nanmadol continued its
brisk west-northwestward heading towards Yap en route to the Philippines.
At 0000 UTC 30 November the storm was located approximately 180 nm east-
southeast of Yap. Nanmadol passed just north of the island at 30/0800
UTC, bringing typhoon-force gusts and sustained tropical storm strength
winds. Strengthening resumed and the MSW reached 105 kts at 01/0000 UTC.
Nanmadol stuttered a bit after the intensity had risen to 125 kts at
01/1200 UTC, and even fell back a bit six hours later. However, the
tropical cyclone reached its peak intensity of 130 kts at 02/0000 UTC, a
super typhoon, centred 220 nm east of Manila, Philippines. Because of
its rapid translational speed Super Typhoon Nanmadol soon arrived at the
Luzon coastline and at 02/1200 UTC was poised to make landfall south of
the city of Casiguran. At this time, the system began to lose strength
and was downgraded from super typhoon status.
Turning northwestward Typhoon Nanmadol took roughly six hours to cross
the island of Luzon, and by 1800 UTC 2 December had reemerged back over
water. It had weakened slightly to 110 kts at this time, and likely its
rapid passage across the northern Philippines didn't allow time for the
system to weaken significantly. However, this period marked the
beginning of the end for the tropical cyclone. The northwesterly turn
was to take Nanmadol into a weakness in the subtropical ridge before
being dragged off by a major shortwave trough. In addition, upper-level
conditions in the vicinity of Taiwan were becoming increasingly
unfavourable. In response to this, Nanmadol weakened markedly during the
3rd as it gradually veered more towards the north. Cloud top
temperatures rapidly warmed and cold dry air was being sucked into the
storm's southwestern quadrant. In addition, the cloud pattern became
increasingly asymmetrical, a sign that extratropical transition was
beginning. At 03/1200 UTC the LLCC was exposed 130 nm to the south of
the deep convection--the centre was then located approximately 210 nm
southwest of Kaoshiung, Taiwan. The MSW had dropped to 65 kts by 03/1200
UTC, and six hours later, JTWC issued the final warning, lowering the
intensity down to a 55-kt extratropical storm. JMA continued issuing
bulletins, tracking Nanmadol east-northeastward across southern Taiwan
before ceasing to write bulletins at 04/0600 UTC. (See Huang Chunliang's
Report from China--Section E.) The remnants of Super Typhoon Nanmadol
continued to rapidly move to the east-northeast and northeast and
ultimately merged with another LOW, forming a powerful extratropical
cyclone which brought strong winds and advected unseasonably warm
temperatures to Japan.
At its peak intensity Super Typhoon Nanmadol was a large-sized
typhoon. Typhoon-force winds extended as far as 65 nm in the southwest
quadrant while gales lay up to 320 nm in the same quadrant. Strong winds
extended outward a shorter distance in the northeastern quadrant with
64-kt winds up to 35 nm and gales as far as 190 nm.
All Asian agencies, except PAGASA, estimated peak intensities of
90 kts with JMA estimating a minimum CP of 935 mb. PAGASA estimated a
peak MSW of 100 kts during the period Super Typhoon Nanmadol/Yoyong was
tracking through their AOR.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Because Typhoon Muifa, Tropical Depressions Merbok and Winnie, and
Super Typhoon Nanmadol all occurred within a space of two weeks, the
exact number of casualties and total cost of damages of each may be
difficult to determine. However, the NDCC report indicated that Nanmadol
caused 70 fatalities, and 157 injuries with 37 persons unaccounted for.
This brings the total of tropical-system related deaths in the
Philippines to 1,060. The report also indicated that Nanmadol destroyed
10,457 houses and damaged 57,435. Agriculture also suffered badly as a
result of this typhoon with losses amounting to 2,036 million pesos.
D. Huang Chunliang Report from the Philippines
----------------------------------------------
=== Rainfall Obs from Philippines ===
(All dates in December)
Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed:
CATANDUANES RADAR (WMO98447 13.98N 124.32E) 127.2 mm [01/00-02/00Z]
CATARMAN (WMO98546 12.50N 124.63E) 122.0 mm [01/00-02/00Z]
DAET (WMO98440 14.13N 122.98E) 228.1 mm [02/00-03/00Z]
TANAY (-------- 14.57N 121.37E) 145.6 mm [02/00-03/00Z]
VIRAC (WMO98446 13.58N 124.23E) 115.2 mm [02/00-03/00Z]
BAGUIO (WMO98328 16.42N 120.60E) 104.9 mm [02/00-03/00Z]
E. Huang Chunliang Report from China
------------------------------------
=== Report on Typhoon 0428 (NANMADOL)/Moderate ===
=== Typhoon 0427 (NANMADOL) from China ===
(All dates in December)
{Part I}. Landfall
==================
According to the CWB warnings, Weak Typhoon 0427 (Nanmadol) made land-
fall in southeastern Taiwan near Fangliao, Pingtung County, around
03/2340 UTC with a MSW of 28 m/s and a CP of 980 hPa. The storm then
entered the waters east of southern Taiwan from near Taimali, Taitung
County, around 04/0130 UTC before transforming into an extratropical
cyclone. As a result, Nanmadol made a name for itself as the first
December tropical cyclone in the past 108 years to make landfall
on the island (typhoon records began in the year 1897).
{Part II}. Rainfall Obs from Taiwan
===================================
Daily Rainfall [02/16-03/16Z] (only Top 5 listed):
Ranking Station ID City/County Rainfall (mm)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
01 CWB C1T83 Hualien County 907.0
02 CWB C0T82 Hualien County 728.0
03 CWB C1T94 Hualien County 632.0
04 CWB C1T95 Hualien County 628.0
05 CWB C1T98 Hualien County 494.5
Note: Puluowan (CWB C1T83) reported the highest storm total accumulation
of 1090 mm during the 35-hr period ending at 04/0300 UTC.
{Part III}. Rainfall Obs from Fujian
====================================
Nanmadol turned out to be an extremely rare winter tropical cyclone
that affected my city. In fact, before Nanmadol, there has never been
any tropical cyclone to affect Fujian in the month of December, according
to the meteorological records of the province.
Fuzhou's coastal county of Lianjiang recorded a 24-hr rainfall amount
of 52.3 mm [03/00-04/00Z] (Top 1 in Fujian Province that day), while the
urban area (WMO58847), where I live, reported an uninterrupted daily
accumulation of 29.7 mm during the same span, the climatic average for
the whole month of December being 28.8 mm. Both values were rare for
the city at this time of year.
{Part IV}. Rainfall Obs from Zhejiang
=====================================
Only daily amount >= 100 mm listed:
DACHEN DAO (WMO58666 28.45N 121.88E) 106.3 mm [03/00-04/00Z]
SHIPU (WMO58569 29.20N 121.95E) 101.9 mm [03/00-04/00Z]
YU-HUAN (WMO58667 28.13N 121.22E) 101.8 mm [03/00-04/00Z]
{Part V}. Damage and Casualties in Taiwan
=========================================
Nanmadol caused 2 deaths with another 2 persons missing in Taiwan.
Power supply to 26,588 households was disrupted during the storm. The
agricultural losses there were estimated to have been NT$ 670 million.
F. Huang Chunliang Report from Japan
------------------------------------
=== Report on Extratropical Cyclone ===
=== (December 4-5, 2004) ===
{Part I}. Introduction
======================
JMA regarded the cyclone as another extratropical system (rather
than "ex-Nanmadol") which formed north-northeast of Nanmadol around
04/0000 UTC, then absorbing the latter by 04/1200 UTC. I believe,
however, that it's acceptable to label the storm directly as
"ex-Nanmadol", though I didn't remember if any of the other agencies
had done so.
{Part II}. Meteorological Obs from Tokyo District
Meteorological Observatory
=================================================
Note 1: All the obs in this part were reported within the precinct of
Tokyo District Meteorological Observatory, including the prefectures of
Niigata, Toyama, Ishikawa, Fukui, Ibaraki, Gumma, Tochigi, Saitama,
Tokyo, Chiba, Kanagawa, Yamanashi, Nagano, Shizuoka, Gifu, Aichi and Mie.
Note 2: "*" = record-breaking values for relevant stations.
Note 3: "#" = record-breaking values of December for relevant stations.
1. Top-5 Storm Total [03/1500-05/1500Z] Obs
-------------------------------------------
Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm)
-------------------------------------------------------------
01 Mie Owase 230
02 Mie Mihama 222
03 Shizuoka Amagisan 210
04 Shizuoka Umegashima 202
05 Shizuoka Ikawa 201
05 Shizuoka Honkawane 201
2. Top-5 Peak Sustained Wind (10-min avg) Obs
---------------------------------------------
Ranking Station Peak wind (mps)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
01 Miyake-tsubota, Tokyo (JMA44228, Alt 20m) 30 [04/2030Z]
02 Chiba, Chiba (WMO47682, Alt 4m) #24.5 [04/2130Z]
03 Ojima, Tokyo (WMO47675, Alt 74m) #24.4 [04/2110Z]
04 Irouzaki, Shizuoka (WMO47666, Alt 55m) 24.3 [04/1950Z]
05 Haneda, Tokyo (JMA44166, Alt 6m) 24 [04/2140Z]
3. Peak Gust Obs (only those >= 40 m/s listed)
----------------------------------------------
Ranking Station Peak wind (mps)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
01 Ojima, Tokyo (WMO47675, Alt 74m) #48.3 [04/2032Z]
02 Chiba, Chiba (WMO47682, Alt 4m) #47.8 [04/2141Z]
03 Katsuura, Chiba (WMO47674, Alt 12m) #43.7 [04/2208Z]
04 Yokohama, Kanagawa (WMO47670, Alt 39m) #43.4 [04/2050Z]
05 Irouzaki, Shizuoka (WMO47666, Alt 55m) #41.6 [04/1942Z]
06 Omaezaki, Shizuoka (WMO47655, Alt 45m) #41.3 [04/1936Z]
07 Choshi, Chiba (WMO47648, Alt 20m) #41.0 [04/2151Z]
08 Hachijojima, Tokyo (WMO47678, Alt 79m) 40.3 [04/2217Z]
09 Tokyo, Tokyo (WMO47662, Alt 6m) *#40.2 [04/2120Z]
4. Top-5 SLP Obs
----------------
Ranking Station Min SLP (hPa)
----------------------------------------------------------------
01 Mito, Ibaraki (WMO47629) 974.4 [04/2155Z]
02 Tokyo, Tokyo (WMO47662) 975.6 [04/2116Z]
03 Takayama, Gifu (WMO47617) 976.1 [04/1906Z]
04 Utsunomiya, Tochigi (WMO47615) 976.2 [04/2142Z]
05 Yokohama, Kanagawa (WMO47670) 976.9 [04/2056Z]
{Part III}. The most significant obs available to me from other
prefectures
===============================================================
Tomogashima, Wakayama (JMA65036, 34.28N 135.00E, Alt 43m) reported a
peak sustained wind (10-min avg) of 31 m/s [04/1630Z] during the storm,
while Shishikui, Tokushima (JMA71316, 33.56N 134.31E, Alt 4m) recorded
a storm total rainfall of 269 mm [03/2200--04/1700Z].
{Part IV} References
====================
http://www.tokyo-jma.go.jp/sub_index/bosai/disaster/20041206/20041206.pdf>
(Japanese version only)>
http://www.jma.go.jp> (Japanese version)
G. Michael Padua Observations from the Philippines
--------------------------------------------------
Michael Padua in Naga City sent me the following observations he made
during the passage of Typhoon Nanmadol/Yoyong to the north of his home:
Closest approach to Naga City (13.6N/123.2E): 02/0530 UTC - 87 nm to the NNE
Highest wind speed (presumably gust): 45 kts from south at 02/0727 UTC
Minimum barometric pressure: 991.4 mb at 02/0529 UTC
Highest rainfall rates: (1) 62.5 mm/hr at 02/0206 UTC
(2) 90.4 mm/hr at 01/1326 UTC
Rainfall storm total: 173.7 mm 30 November - 02 December
(Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by
Huang Chunliang and Michael Padua)
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for November: 1 deep depression **
1 severe cyclonic storm ++
** - this system classified as a tropical storm by JTWC
++ - this system classified as a hurricane by JTWC
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some
information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
(IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic
observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. In the North Indian Ocean
basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
within 48 hours.
North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November
-------------------------------------------------
Two tropical cyclones came to life in the North Indian Ocean during
the month of November, both in the Arabian Sea. The first one was
classified as a minimal tropical storm by JTWC, but only as a deep
depression by IMD. Tropical Cyclone 04A formed early in the month in
the central Arabian Sea and moved generally in the direction of the
Arabian Peninsula, later moving southwestward as it weakened and
dissipated off the coast of Somalia. Late in the month Cyclonic Storm
Agni formed at an extremely low latitude in the southern Arabian Sea,
only 42 nm north of the equator. Furthermore, before the tropical storm
developed, the parent circulation had drifted southwestward to a point
just south of the equator and then moved back into the Northern
Hemisphere while maintaining its counterclockwise circulation. Short
reports on both these systems follow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC-04A)
4 - 7 November
------------------------------------
A STWO issued by JTWC at 1800 UTC on 31 October noted that an area
of convection had developed and persisted approximately 750 nm west
of Colombo, Sri Lanka. A 31/0106 UTC QuikScat pass had revealed the
existence of a LLCC around which convection was beginning to organize,
and upper-level conditions were favorable for further development with
good diffluence and low vertical shear. The potential for development
was upgraded to fair at 1300 UTC on 1 November as deep convection had
continued to consolidate around the LLCC. A ship observation around
01/0600 UTC had reported maximum winds of only 10-15 kts, but in light
of the increasing organization the MSW was estimated to have increased
to 20-25 kts. At 02/1800 UTC the disturbance had moved westward to
a point almost 900 nm west-northwest of Colombo and deep convection was
continuing to cycle near the LLCC.
At 0700 UTC on 4 November the system was located almost 500 nm south-
west of Mumbai (Bombay), India, and the deep convection was becoming
more wrapped around the LLCC. Animated water vapor imagery showed an
increase in poleward outflow, and an upper-level analysis indicated
that the LLCC was located in an environment of low to moderate vertical
shear with favorable divergence aloft. Maximum winds were estimated
at 25-30 kts, and the potential for development was upgraded to good
with a TCFA being issued at this time. The first JTWC warning on
Tropical Cyclone 04A was issued at 1200 UTC on the 4th, placing the
center approximately 500 nm southwest of Mumbai. The initial warning
intensity was set at 35 kts.
Over the next couple of days TC-04A moved on a course slightly north
of due west. The peak intensity of 40 kts was reached at 05/0600 UTC,
and again for a 12-hour period beginning at 06/0000 UTC, based on
satellite CI estimates of 35 and 45 kts. The system was in an environ-
ment of weak vertical shear and poleward outflow, but deep convection
remained confined to the eastern semicircle. The MSW was decreased to
35 kts at 1200 UTC on the 6th as satellite imagery revealed a fully-
exposed LLCC located approximately 120 nm to the southwest of the
remaining convection. After 07/0000 UTC, TC-04A began to move on
a southwesterly track as it weakened. Deep convection had dissipated
by 07/1200 UTC due to the entrainment of dry, continental air and the
MSW was dropped to 25 kts. The final JTWC warning at 1800 UTC placed
the still well-defined LLCC about 150 nm east of Socotra Island, or
about 280 nm east-northeast of Cape Guardafui, Somalia. (This system
was not treated as a cyclonic storm by IMD.)
TC-04A seemed to stage a weak attempt at a comeback. A QuikScat
chart at 0724 UTC on 9 November shows a circulation off the coast of
Somalia with some possible rain-contaminated vectors exceeding 50 kts,
and a visible image at 09/0500 UTC depicts a flare-up of convection
associated with the system.
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from this rather
weak marine cyclone.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AGNI
(ARB0403 / TC-05A)
28 November - 3 December
----------------------------------------------
Agni: contributed by India, means 'fire'
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The origins of Agni are in a sense more exciting than the cyclonic
storm stage which followed. As early as 19 November an area of
convection developed and persisted at an unusually low latitude (2.7N)
about 445 nm east-southeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Animated multi-
spectral imagery and an 18/1235 UTC QuikScat pass showed that convection
was beginning to consolidate around a well-defined LLCC. Concurrently,
an upper-level analysis indicated that the region was under moderate
vertical shear but also in a region of favorable divergence. Maximum
winds were estimated at 20 kts. Over the next few days the rather
broad LLCC drifted westward, passing approximately 250 nm south of
Colombo on the 21st. Deep convection seemed to be increasing on the
22nd so the development potential was upgraded to fair. JTWC issued a
TCFA for the system at 2200 UTC on 22 November, placing the center
about 255 nm southwest of Colombo and estimating the maximum winds at
25-30 kts. However, 24 hours later the convection had decreased and
had become cyclic, so the TCFA was cancelled and the potential for
development downgraded to poor. The disturbance was written off as a
candidate for tropical cyclone development on the 24th.
Another area of convection had developed by 1800 UTC on 26 November
about 560 nm southwest of Colombo, or only 90 nm north of the equator.
This area of disturbed weather was likely a continuation of the earlier
system described in the above paragraph. Animated infrared imagery
indicated that deep convection was becoming organized over a weak LLCC.
An upper-level analysis indicated low vertical shear and good diffluence
aloft. The maximum winds were estimated at 20-25 kts and the development
potential was assessed as fair. At 1800 UTC on the 27th the disturbance
was located farther to the west, or about 620 nm west-southwest of
Colombo. JTWC issued a TCFA for the system at 0300 UTC on 28 November
due to increasing deep convection over the LLCC. Maximum winds were now
estimated at 25-30 kts. The first JTWC warning on Tropical Cyclone 05A
was issued at 0600 UTC on 28 November, placing the center approximately
785 nm west-southwest of Colombo, or over 1100 nm south-southwest of
Mumbai, tracking west at 10 kts. The initial warning intensity of 35 kts
was based on CI estimates of 35 and 45 kts.
The initial warning location of TC-05A's center was only 42 nm north
of the equator! The lowest latitude system so far to date was Typhoon
Vamei in December, 2001, which was a typhoon only 90 nm north of the
"line". However, even more astounding is a QuikScat image taken of the
pre-warning circulation at 27/0107 UTC. This image clearly shows a
broad, somewhat elongated circulation with a COUNTERCLOCKWISE spin
centered about a half-degree SOUTH of the equator! It appears that this
system of Northern Hemisphere origin dipped just south of the equator
and then came back without losing its counterclockwise rotation. It
would be a pretty good bet to say that this is the first documented case
of such an occurrence.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Having apparently survived its excursion just south of the equator,
the tropical cyclone embarked on a generally northwestward track across
the Arabian Sea which it would follow for most of its life. At some
point IMD named the system Cyclonic Storm Agni, but I am not certain of
the exact time the storm became the second officially named North Indian
Ocean tropical cyclone on record. Once having reached tropical storm
intensity, Agni continued to intensify rather steadily. By 1200 UTC on
29 November JTWC had upped the MSW to 65 kts, based on CI estimates of
55 and 65 kts. The size of the CDO had decreased slightly, but outflow
remained well-defined in all directions. At this time Agni was located
about 1050 nm south-southwest of Mumbai, or approximately 920 nm east-
southeast of Cape Guardafui, Somalia. Based upon JTWC's warnings,
Agni maintained hurricane intensity for 18 hours before beginning to
slowly weaken.
Continued weakening was forecast as Agni was moving into a region of
moderate vertical shear and drier air. The MSW was lowered to 40 kts
at 0000 UTC on 2 December when the storm was centered approximately
375 nm southeast of Cape Guardafui. Satellite CI estimates at the time
ranged from 35 to 45 kts. Agni was by now moving on more of a westerly
course as it tracked along the southern periphery of the subtropical
ridge. Deep convection continued to cycle over the storm as it continued
plodding toward the Somalian coastline. This apparently led to some
satellite analysts assigning Dvorak ratings as high as T3.5, but JTWC
maintained the MSW at 40 kts during this period. However, by 03/1800
UTC CI estimates had dropped to 25 and 35 kts, and with the system
having encountered a hostile environment of dry, continental air and
reduced outflow, JTWC issued the final warning on Agni, locating the
weakening 30-kt center about 240 nm south-southeast of Cape Guardafui.
C. Further Discussion
---------------------
Regarding the maximum intensity of Severe Cyclonic Storm Agni, Karl
Hoarau feels that early on 30 November the intensity could have been as
high as 80-85 kts. According to Dr. Hoarau, the Dvorak embedded center
technique with the EIR imagery would have yielded Data-T numbers of
4.5 or 5.0. Also, microwave images showed a much better signature with
an eye at 30/0239 UTC, which was not the case on the 29th. I do not
know the maximum intensity assigned Agni by IMD, but I do have a copy
of an IMD warning for 30/1200 UTC which estimates the MSW at 55 kts and
forecast to increase to 65 kts in six hours. This is the basis for my
referring to the system as Severe Cyclonic Storm Agni in the title line
above.
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
There are no known damage or casualties resulting from Severe Cyclonic
Storm Agni.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for November: 1 severe tropical storm **
1 very intense tropical cyclone
** - this system classified as a minimal hurricane (cyclone) by JTWC
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named
by the sub-regional warning centres on Mauritius and Madagascar with
longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their respective
areas of warning responsibility. The La Reunion centre only advises
these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems. References
to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise
stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November
-----------------------------------------------------
The first two named tropical cyclones of the Southern Hemisphere
season formed in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin during November. Both
formed well to the east of Diego Garcia and equatorward of latitude 10S.
Arola became a severe tropical storm with peak winds reaching 60 kts,
but Bento became the most intense Southwest Indian cyclone to form north
of 10S--the cyclone reached its peak intensity of 120 kts at latitude
8.5S. Both systems passed south of Diego Garcia but at a sufficient
distance that there were no significant effects felt on the island.
Reports on both Arola and Bento follow.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AROLA
(MFR-03 / TC-03S)
7 - 13 November
-----------------------------------------------
Arola: contributed by Lesotho
A. Storm Origins
----------------
Early on 7 November (UTC) an area of convection lay approximately
630 nm east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Animated infrared satellite
imagery revealed a mid-level circulation becoming more organized over a
possible weak LLCC. An upper-level analysis indicated moderate
diffluence in the poleward direction with weak to moderate vertical shear
under the subtropical ridge axis. MFR initiated bulletins on Tropical
Disturbance 03 at 07/0600 UTC with a very weak 15-kt center located
about 650 nm east of Diego Garcia. Deep convection continued to
persist near the LLCC and the winds were increased to 25 kts at 1800
UTC. JTWC issued a TCFA for the system at 0200 UTC on 8 November as
the system continued to display increased organization.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
The system continued to increase in organization and at 0600 UTC on
8 November MFR upgraded the disturbance to tropical depression status,
i.e., 30-kt winds. (At the same time JTWC issued the first warning on
TC-03S with the 1-min avg MSW estimated at 35 kts.) Six hours later
MFR upgraded the depression to tropical storm status with Mauritius
assigning the name Arola. Tropical Storm Arola was then located about
400 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia with the MSW estimated at 45 kts
(10-min avg). Arola was moving west-southwestward and this motion was
forecast to continue as the system remained under the steering influence
of an anticyclone anchored to the south of the storm. Arola continued
to intensify rapidly on the 8th of November--by 1800 UTC the storm had
reached its peak intensity of 60 kts, increasing from 30 kts in only
12 hours. The minimum CP estimated by MFR was 976 hPa. At this point
Arola exhibited a very strong poleward outflow channel. Surface inflow
also was strong with feeder bands stretching over 300 nm equatorward
from the center.
Severe Tropical Storm Arola maintained its 60-kt intensity for
24 hours, then began to slowly weaken. By 09/1800 UTC convection had
decreased and the center had become partially-exposed. "Slowly"
describes Arola in two ways on the 10th through 12th of November--it
very slowly weakened and also moved very slowly, generally in a west-
southwesterly direction. The MSW had dropped to 45 kts by 1200 UTC
on the 10th, and to minimal tropical storm intensity of 35 kts 24 hours
later. At 12/0600 UTC Arola was downgraded to a 30-kt tropical
depression while located approximately 285 nm south-southeast of Diego
Garcia. The weakening depression continued to drift westward for the
next day or so--the final bulletin on the system at 13/1200 UTC placed
the center about 400 nm southwest of Diego Garcia.
The peak intensity estimated by JTWC was 75 kts (1-min avg) at 0000
UTC on 9 November, up from 45 kts six hours earlier. This was based on
CI estimates of 65 and 77 kts. However, six hours later the MSW was
dropped to 65 kts. Satellite imagery revealed that the convection had
greatly weakened and that the eye had disappeared. This sharp increase
in the reported winds and subsequent quick reduction suggests that
perhaps the 75-kt estimate at 09/0000 UTC was a little high.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Severe
Tropical Storm Arola.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BENTO
(MFR-04 / TC-04S)
20 - 30 November
-------------------------------------------------------
Bento: contributed by Mozambique
A. Storm Origins
----------------
An area of convection developed and persisted on 18 November roughly
365 nm east of Diego Garcia. Animated multi-spectral imagery and data
from an 18/1240 UTC QuikScat pass revealed that convection was beginning
to consolidate around a well-defined and elongated LLCC. An upper-level
analysis indicated low to moderate vertical shear and favorable
divergence aloft, and an increase in 850-mb vorticity had also been
noted. The disturbance drifted westward and 24 hours later was located
approximately 310 nm east of Diego Garcia. MFR began issuing bulletins
on the developing disturbance at 0600 UTC on 20 November, designating it
as Tropical Disturbance 04 and locating the center about 300 nm east of
Diego Garcia with winds estimated at 25 kts, locally 30 kts in the
southern quadrants. Convection gradually increased in organization near
the LLCC and the upper-level environment remained favorable for
strengthening. The system was upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression
at 21/0000 UTC when located approximately 325 nm slightly south of due
east of Diego Garcia.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
JTWC initiated warnings on TC-04S at 21/0600 UTC, and six hours later
the system became Tropical Storm Bento, located about 375 nm east-
southeast of Diego Garcia with 40-kt winds (10-min avg). Bento steadily
increased in intensity, reaching cyclone (i.e., hurricane) status by
1200 UTC on 22 November when located about 300 nm east-southeast of Diego
Garcia. Interestingly, at 1800 UTC on the 21st satellite CI estimates
were ranging from 45 to 77 kts. Bento was similar to its predecessor
Tropical Storm Arola in two regards: (1) it moved rather slowly, most
of the time around 5 kts or less, and (2) it intensified rather quickly
to its peak intensity and then weakened slowly for several days.
However, the similarity ends there as Bento was much more intense than
Arola. Once having reached cyclone intensity at 22/1200 UTC, Bento
deepened very rapidly, reaching its peak intensity of 120 kts within
24 hours. The very intense cyclone was at this time located about
175 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia, at latitude 8.5S. According
to Karl Hoarau, Bento is the first South Indian cyclone on record to
reach this extreme intensity equatorward of 10S. JTWC's estimated peak
1-min avg MSW of 140 kts compares very well with MFR's intensity. All
satellite agencies assigned a Dvorak rating of T7.0 to Bento on the 23rd.
Bento was a somewhat compact tropical cyclone with gales covering an area
only around 200 nm in diameter. The minimum CP estimated by MFR was
905 hPa.
Tropical Cyclone Bento maintained its peak intensity of 120 kts for
an 18-hour period, and then began to slowly weaken on the 24th. The
initial weakening was likely due to an eyewall replacement cycle which
was evident in satellite imagery. During its most intense phase Bento
tracked slowly in a west-southwesterly direction under the steering
influence of a subtropical ridge anchored to the south of the cyclone.
Convection was beginning to decrease by 24/1800 UTC due to some dry
air intrusion, and at 25/0000 UTC MFR lowered the MSW to 95 kts. By
this time Bento had made a fairly abrupt turn to the south-southeast
around the western periphery of the mid-level steering ridge toward
a weakness created by a passing mid-latitude trough. In addition to
the dry air the cyclone was moving into a region of increasing vertical
shear. By 1800 UTC on 25 November the MSW had dropped to 70 kts, and
six hours later MFR downgraded Bento to a tropical storm, located about
350 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia.
The weakening Bento continued to track slowly in a general south-
southeasterly direction for the next few days. The storm's intensity,
based on MFR's analysis, remained pegged around 50-55 kts for a three-
day period from the 26th through 28th, and JTWC's 1-min avg MSW estimates
were in general agreement. However, there is some evidence that Bento
may have been stronger than this on the 27th and 28th. Two consecutive
QuikScat passes over the cyclone--one at 27/1211 UTC and the other at
28/0040 UTC--show winds of up to 75 kts or stronger. According to Roger
Edson it is highly unlikely that these winds are artificially too high.
The satellite agencies were all reporting Dvorak ratings of T3.0 and
T3.5 around this time. In Roger's opinion the CI was not behaving the
way it is "supposed" to, and he considered this very possible since
Bento had a large wind field and could possibly take longer than normal
to wind down. By late on the 27th the LLCC had become decoupled from the
deep convection and by 28/0600 UTC the center had become fully-exposed.
Convection continued to decrease, and JTWC issued their final warning
on Bento at 0600 UTC on 29 November. The LLCC was drifting westward
while the sheared convection was tracking southeastward. MFR downgraded
Bento to a tropical depression at 29/1200 UTC--the system was then
located approximately 575 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia. The
system continued to weaken and the final bulletin was issued at 1200 UTC
on the 30th, placing the center about 615 nm south of Diego Garcia. The
MSW had decreased to 25 kts but winds up to 30 kts were still considered
possible in isolated locations in the southern semicircle.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Tropical Cyclone Bento remained well-removed from any populated
regions during its lifetime and there have been no reports of damage
or casualties resulting from the storm.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for November: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for November: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for November: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>
JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterry website:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen.
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
Landsea, and John Diebolt):
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
http://mpittweather.com>
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
Report (ATCR) for 2004 (2003-2004 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2004 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2004 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: [email protected]
John Wallace (Assistance with Eastern North Pacific)
E-mail: [email protected]
Huang Chunliang (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: [email protected]
Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
E-mail: [email protected]
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
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Document: summ0411.htm
Updated: 17th May, 2005 |
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