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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks January 2003
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

          
             GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - JANUARY 2003


          !!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!!


  SPECIAL NOTE:  Back issues of the global tropical cyclone summaries
  and monthly cyclone track files can be obtained at the following
  websites:

    ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph> OR http://64.235.42.210>
    http://mpittweather.com>

*************************************************************************

NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
  Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
  located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  The central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained
  from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which
  is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
  ological Centre for the basin.  In a few instances, information from
  warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized.
  The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com-
  pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column
  when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings
  issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines'
  Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration
  (PAGASA).  Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends me
  each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the National
  Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather Bureau
  of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO).    A very
  special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
  reliably provide.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Tropical Storm YANYAN (01W / 0301)                  13 - 21 Jan

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: YANYAN                Cyclone Number: 01W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0301

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 JAN 13 0600   2.4 N  173.8 E  1000         30  JMA Bulletins
03 JAN 13 1200   2.7 N  173.1 E  1002         30
03 JAN 13 1800   5.1 N  173.2 E  1002         30
03 JAN 14 0000   5.1 N  171.3 E  1002         30
03 JAN 14 0600   6.1 N  169.5 E  1002         30
03 JAN 14 1200   6.3 N  168.1 E  1002         30
03 JAN 14 1800   6.3 N  166.8 E  1002         30
03 JAN 15 0000   6.1 N  166.6 E  1002         30
03 JAN 15 0600   6.2 N  164.7 E  1002         30
03 JAN 15 1200   7.3 N  162.2 E  1002         30
03 JAN 15 1800   7.2 N  160.9 E  1000   30    30  JTWC Warnings
03 JAN 16 0000   7.7 N  159.6 E  1004   30    30  JMA: 8.2 N, 158.8 E
03 JAN 16 0600   8.4 N  157.8 E  1004   30    30
03 JAN 16 1200   9.2 N  156.5 E  1006   30    30
03 JAN 16 1800   9.0 N  155.1 E  1006   30    30  JMA: 9.4 N, 154.5 E
03 JAN 17 0000  10.0 N  152.9 E  1004   35    30  JMA: 11.9 N, 151.0 E
03 JAN 17 0600  11.2 N  151.4 E  1002   35    30  JMA: 13.3 N, 149.4 E
03 JAN 17 1200  11.7 N  150.2 E  1006   30    30  JMA: 12.9 N, 148.6 E
03 JAN 17 1800  12.4 N  148.4 E  1006   35    30  JMA: 13.2 N, 147.4 E
03 JAN 18 0000  13.3 N  147.1 E  1006   40    30
03 JAN 18 0600  13.9 N  146.6 E  1000   45    35
03 JAN 18 1200  14.0 N  146.6 E  1000   45    35  JMA: 14.9 N, 146.8 E
03 JAN 18 1800  14.4 N  147.5 E  1000   45    35  JMA: 15.0 N, 147.2 E
03 JAN 19 0000  14.4 N  148.1 E  1000   50    35  JMA: 15.2 N, 147.7 E
03 JAN 19 0600  14.7 N  148.8 E  1000   45    35
03 JAN 19 1200  15.4 N  150.0 E  1000   40    35
03 JAN 19 1800  16.1 N  150.9 E  1000   40    35
03 JAN 20 0000  16.7 N  152.0 E  1000   40    35
03 JAN 20 0600  17.0 N  153.4 E  1000   35    35  NMCC: 17.8 N, 154.6 E
03 JAN 20 1200  17.6 N  154.3 E  1004   30    30
03 JAN 20 1800  17.9 N  156.2 E  1004   30    25
03 JAN 21 0000  18.3 N  156.5 E  1004   25    25
03 JAN 21 0600  19.0 N  158.0 E  1006         25  JMA Bulletins
03 JAN 21 1200  20.0 N  159.0 E  1010         25
03 JAN 21 1800  19.0 N  158.0 E  1008         25  Relocated

Note: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC are given in the following
table.

   Date   Time      Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts
          (GMT)        NMCC
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 JAN 18 0600          35
03 JAN 18 1200          35
03 JAN 18 1800          45
03 JAN 19 0000          45
03 JAN 19 0600          45
03 JAN 19 1200          45
03 JAN 19 1800          45
03 JAN 20 0000          45
03 JAN 20 0600          35

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
  issued by Meteo France's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on Reunion
  Island (MFR), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
  Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin.  The 1-minute average
  maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the
  Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
  located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  The center position coordinates from
  JTWC were compared with those from MFR and annotations made in the
  Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm
  or more.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Tropical Disturbance (MFR-07)                       06 - 12 Jan
   Tropical Storm EBULA (MFR-08 / 09S)                 07 - 13 Jan
   Tropical Storm FARI (MFR-09 / 11S)                  23 Jan - 01 Feb

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: SWI
MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 07

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 JAN 06 0000  16.5 S   41.4 E  1000         25  30 kts E semicircle
03 JAN 06 0600  17.0 S   39.8 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 06 1200  17.2 S   38.3 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 06 1800  17.9 S   38.3 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 07 0000  18.8 S   38.1 E  1000         25  30 kts E & S quadrants
03 JAN 07 0600  19.5 S   37.4 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 07 1200  20.5 S   37.0 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 07 1800  21.5 S   37.7 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 08 0000  21.7 S   39.0 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 08 0600  22.9 S   38.3 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 08 1200  23.7 S   37.9 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 08 1800  24.0 S   38.0 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 09 0000  25.6 S   38.6 E  1000         25  Convection-free LLCC
03 JAN 09 0600  26.9 S   38.7 E  1000         25  30 kts SE semicircle
03 JAN 09 1200  27.4 S   39.4 E  1000         25  Some weak convection
03 JAN 09 1800  27.5 S   40.4 E  1000         25  Becoming extratropical
03 JAN 10 0000  27.5 S   40.9 E  1000         25  30 kts SE semicircle
03 JAN 10 0600  28.0 S   41.3 E  1002         25           "
03 JAN 10 1800  27.3 S   43.2 E  1000         25  XT/50 kts S semicircle
03 JAN 11 0000  26.3 S   43.2 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 11 0600  26.2 S   42.7 E  1004         20  35 kts S semicircle
03 JAN 11 1200  26.0 S   42.4 E  1004         20           "
03 JAN 11 1800  25.6 S   42.9 E  1005         20           "
03 JAN 12 0000  26.0 S   43.3 E  1006         20           "
03 JAN 12 0600  27.0 S   45.0 E  1006         20  30 kts S semicircle

Note: This system more than likely was a redevelopment of the remnants of
December's Tropical Storm Delfina, based upon comments in MFR's bulletins
and in JTWC's STWOs.   Since the system was given a new number by MFR, I
have treated it as a separate system.    Warnings were dropped after
10/0600 UTC since the system had become extratropical, but were resumed
12 hours later when storm-force winds were reported well south of the
center.  No warnings were issued by JTWC.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: EBULA                 Cyclone Number: 09S     Basin: SWI
MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 08

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 JAN 07 1200  10.7 S   70.2 E  1004         20  25 kts in S semicircle
03 JAN 08 0000  11.0 S   70.1 E         35        JTWC warning
03 JAN 08 0600  11.0 S   70.5 E  1000         25  30 kts in NE semicircle
03 JAN 08 1200  13.3 S   70.6 E  1001   35    25            "
03 JAN 08 1800  14.1 S   70.5 E   998         30
03 JAN 09 0000  14.4 S   70.8 E   996   50    30
03 JAN 09 0600  14.9 S   71.0 E   986         45
03 JAN 09 1200  15.2 S   71.1 E   984   50    50  JTWC: 15.8 S, 71.4 E
03 JAN 09 1800  16.7 S   71.0 E   980         55
03 JAN 10 0000  17.5 S   70.7 E   980   65    55
03 JAN 10 0600  19.0 S   70.4 E   975         60
03 JAN 10 1200  20.2 S   69.7 E   975   65    60
03 JAN 10 1800  21.6 S   69.6 E   975         60
03 JAN 11 0000  23.6 S   69.3 E   978   60    55  JTWC: 23.3 S, 70.0 E
03 JAN 11 0600  24.1 S   69.2 E   980         50
03 JAN 11 1200  25.8 S   69.8 E   984   50    50
03 JAN 11 1800  26.3 S   70.5 E   986         50
03 JAN 12 0000  27.5 S   70.6 E   988   40    45
03 JAN 12 0600  28.1 S   71.8 E   993         40
03 JAN 12 1200  28.3 S   73.0 E   995         40  Extratropical
03 JAN 12 1800  28.3 S   73.8 E   998         40
03 JAN 13 0000  28.3 S   74.1 E  1000         35
03 JAN 13 0600  28.9 S   74.3 E  1000         35
03 JAN 13 1200  29.7 S   74.7 E  1000         30  Locally 35 kts

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: FARI                  Cyclone Number: 11S     Basin: SWI
MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 09

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 JAN 23 0600  13.0 S   76.0 E  1006         20  35 kts S semicircle
03 JAN 23 1200  14.7 S   74.9 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 23 1800  15.0 S   74.3 E   998   35    30           "
03 JAN 24 0000  15.2 S   73.7 E   997         30           "
03 JAN 24 0600  16.0 S   72.2 E   999   20    25  30 kts S semicircle
03 JAN 25 0000  11.5 S   67.0 E  1004         20  See Note
03 JAN 25 0600  11.6 S   64.6 E  1004         20  30 kts S semicircle
03 JAN 25 1200  11.8 S   64.0 E  1004         20           "
03 JAN 25 1800  12.4 S   62.5 E  1001         20           "
03 JAN 26 0000  12.9 S   61.9 E  1001         20           "
03 JAN 26 0600  13.8 S   60.3 E  1000         20           "
03 JAN 26 1200  13.8 S   58.7 E  1000         20           "
03 JAN 26 1800  14.3 S   57.6 E  1000         20           "
03 JAN 27 0000  15.0 S   55.3 E  1002         20           "
03 JAN 27 0600  16.8 S   54.8 E  1000         25           "
03 JAN 27 1200  17.6 S   53.7 E   999         25           "
03 JAN 27 1800  18.5 S   52.0 E   998         30
03 JAN 28 0000  19.0 S   51.8 E   996   35    30
03 JAN 28 0600  19.1 S   51.4 E   995         30
03 JAN 28 1200  19.9 S   50.0 E   992   40    35
03 JAN 28 1800  20.1 S   49.4 E   990         40
03 JAN 29 0000  20.3 S   48.4 E   984   55    50  Inland in Madagascar
03 JAN 29 0600  20.4 S   47.5 E  1000         25  Locally 30 kts to east
03 JAN 29 1200  22.2 S   44.8 E  1000   35    25  JTWC: 21.6 S, 45.7 E
03 JAN 29 1800  22.6 S   43.3 E  1000         25  Nearing west coast
03 JAN 30 0000  21.9 S   41.8 E   999   30    25  JTWC: 22.2 S, 42.8 E
03 JAN 30 0600  23.5 S   41.4 E   999         25  Over water at 0000 UTC
03 JAN 30 1200  23.6 S   41.5 E   999   30    25  JTWC: 24.0 S, 42.2 E
03 JAN 30 1800  24.7 S   42.3 E   999         25  30 kts in S semicircle
03 JAN 31 0000  26.1 S   42.5 E   999   25    25  Becoming extratropical
03 JAN 31 0600  27.4 S   43.5 E   999         25  30 kts in S semicircle
03 JAN 31 1200  28.1 S   43.8 E   999         25  30 kts SE & W quadrants
03 JAN 31 1800  29.2 S   44.5 E  1000         30  XT/35 kts S semicircle
03 FEB 01 0000  32.5 S   44.5 E  1000         30            "
03 FEB 01 0600  33.0 S   45.5 E  1000         30            "
03 FEB 01 1200  34.2 S   47.0 E  1002         30            "

Note: After its initial development on the 23rd, the system weakened
significantly on the 24th and regular warnings were dropped.  The MFR
warning issued at 24/1200 UTC did not contain any center coordinates,
but stated that squally weather existed between 12S and 18S, from 66E to
79E, with winds 15-20 kts, reaching locally 25-30 kts between 16S and 18S
due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure ridge.

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - Longitude 90E to 135E


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
  issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Perth, Western
  Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory.    The 1-minute average
  maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by
  the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  The center position coordinates
  from JTWC were compared with those from the Australian centres and
  annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general
  amounted to 40-50 nm or more.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Tropical LOW                                        19 - 24 Jan

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: AUW


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 JAN 19 0330  15.5 S  130.5 E  1005
03 JAN 21 0430  13.0 S  126.0 E
03 JAN 23 0400  16.1 S  119.1 E  1000         30
03 JAN 23 1000  17.4 S  117.5 E   998         30
03 JAN 23 1600  18.0 S  116.8 E   998         30
03 JAN 23 2200  18.3 S  116.6 E   998         30
03 JAN 24 0400  17.5 S  117.5 E   998         30
03 JAN 24 1000  17.9 S  117.8 E   995         30
03 JAN 24 1600  18.7 S  118.1 E   995         30
03 JAN 24 1900  20.0 S  118.8 E   995         30

Note: There is some question as to whether this system was a continuation
of the monsoon depression of a few days earlier over the Northern
Territory and the Gulf of Carpentaria.  According to Mark Kersemakers of
the Darwin TCWC, as of right now the general consensus is that this LOW
off the coast of Western Australia was not the same system.  

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - Longitude 135E to 160E


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
  issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Darwin, Northern
  Territory; Brisbane, Queensland; and Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
  The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from
  warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S.
  Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.    The center
  position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from the
  Australian centres and annotations made in the Remarks column when the
  differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Monsoon Depression                                  04 - 16 Jan

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: AUE


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 JAN 04 0430  10.0 S  136.0 E  1004              Darwin Trop Wx Outlook
03 JAN 08 0430  14.0 S  134.0 E   997              Inland - See Note #1
03 JAN 09 0430  14.2 S  134.5 E   997
03 JAN 10 0430  14.7 S  134.5 E   997
03 JAN 10 1730  15.5 S  136.0 E   995
03 JAN 11 0130  15.8 S  136.5 E   998         30  See Note #2
03 JAN 11 0730  16.0 S  136.5 E   998         30
03 JAN 11 1330  15.5 S  137.0 E  1000         30
03 JAN 11 1930  15.0 S  137.0 E   999         30
03 JAN 12 0130  15.0 S  137.0 E  1001         30
03 JAN 12 0730  15.0 S  136.8 E   999         30
03 JAN 12 1330  15.0 S  136.8 E  1000         30
03 JAN 12 1930  15.0 S  137.0 E   999         30
03 JAN 13 0130  15.5 S  136.0 E  1001
03 JAN 14 0130  14.0 S  132.0 E  1000
03 JAN 15 0130  13.0 S  132.5 E  1000
03 JAN 16 0230  16.3 S  136.6 E   998

Note #1: The LOW was mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlooks between
4 January and 8 January, but no coordinates were given.  Also, no
estimate of the MSW was given.

Note #2: The MSW estimates were obtained from the forecast peak gusts
contained in the Tropical Cyclone Advices issued by Darwin.  Converting
gusts of 90 km/hr to kts and reducing to a 10-min avg MSW yielded about
35 kts, but since the LOW was not upgraded to tropical cyclone status,
I have held the MSW values in the above track to 30 kts.  That being
said, I have learned from Mark Kersemakers of the Darwin TCWC that
this system may be classified posthumously as an unnamed tropical
cyclone based on a damage assessment and AWS data from Elcho Island
which indicated that a small eye with a core of 50-kt winds passed over
the island with the MSLP dropping to 989 mb.  Hopefully, I'll know more
about this by the time the January summary is released.

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
  issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji, and
  Wellington, New Zealand.  The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor,
  Hawaii.  The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with
  those from the Southern Hemisphere centres and annotations made in the
  Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm
  or more.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Tropical Cyclone AMI (05F / 10P)                    09 - 15 Jan
   Tropical Cyclone BENI (06F / 12P)                   19 Jan - 05 Feb
   Tropical Cyclone CILLA (07F / 13P)                  25 - 30 Jan

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: AMI                   Cyclone Number: 10P     Basin: SPA
Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 05F

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 JAN 09 2100   8.0 S  176.0 W  1002
03 JAN 10 0600   8.5 S  176.3 W  1000
03 JAN 10 2100   9.7 S  177.8 W  1000
03 JAN 11 0600   9.8 S  179.1 W  1000
03 JAN 11 1800  11.2 S  179.2 W         35        JTWC warning
03 JAN 11 2100  11.0 S  179.0 W  1000
03 JAN 12 0000  10.8 S  179.4 W   995         40
03 JAN 12 0600  11.4 S  179.8 W   990   45    40
03 JAN 12 1200  11.9 S  180.0 W   985         50
03 JAN 12 1800  12.4 S  179.8 E   975   65    60
03 JAN 13 0000  13.0 S  179.7 E   975         60
03 JAN 13 0600  14.0 S  179.8 E   970   80    65  JTWC: 14.4 S, 179.7 E
03 JAN 13 1200  15.3 S  179.8 E   960         75
03 JAN 13 1800  17.2 S  179.9 W   960   90    75  JTWC: 16.7 S, 179.9 E
03 JAN 14 0000  19.1 S  179.2 W   960  105    80  JTWC: 19.2 S, 178.9 W
03 JAN 14 0600  20.9 S  178.2 W   950  110    80  JTWC: 21.0 S, 177.9 W
03 JAN 14 1200  23.0 S  176.2 W   950         80
03 JAN 14 1800  25.1 S  173.4 W        100        JTWC warning
03 JAN 15 0000  26.5 S  170.0 W   970         70  Wellington warnings
03 JAN 15 0600  28.9 S  167.1 W   976   70    60  JTWC: 28.8 S, 165.7 W
03 JAN 15 1100  29.0 S  163.0 W   980         35  Extratropical
03 JAN 15 1700  28.5 S  160.0 W   985         35
03 JAN 15 2300  31.0 S  157.0 W   993         35

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: BENI                  Cyclone Number: 12P     Basin: SPA/AUE
Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 06F

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 JAN 19 2100   8.0 S  170.0 E  1005
03 JAN 20 2100  10.0 S  163.0 E  1006
03 JAN 21 0600  11.0 S  162.0 E  1004
03 JAN 21 2100  11.0 S  161.0 E  1006
03 JAN 22 2100  12.0 S  161.0 E  1005
03 JAN 23 2100  12.0 S  162.0 E  1002
03 JAN 24 2100  13.0 S  161.2 E   998         30
03 JAN 25 0000  13.1 S  161.3 E   992   35    40
03 JAN 25 0600  13.3 S  161.0 E   990         40
03 JAN 25 1200  12.9 S  160.8 E   990   35    40
03 JAN 25 1800  12.6 S  161.1 E   990         40
03 JAN 26 0000  12.5 S  161.2 E   987   40    45
03 JAN 26 0600  12.4 S  161.2 E   985         50
03 JAN 26 1200  12.4 S  160.8 E   985   50    50
03 JAN 26 1800  12.9 S  160.9 E   980         55
03 JAN 27 0000  13.1 S  160.5 E   980   60    55
03 JAN 27 0600  13.4 S  160.7 E   980         55
03 JAN 27 1200  13.7 S  160.7 E   980   60    55  JTWC: 13.9 S, 161.0 E
03 JAN 27 1800  14.1 S  160.5 E   980         55
03 JAN 28 0000  14.7 S  160.5 E   975   75    60  
03 JAN 28 0600  15.3 S  160.8 E   975         60
03 JAN 28 1200  15.5 S  161.5 E   975   85    60  JTWC: 15.6 S, 161.0 E
03 JAN 28 1800  16.0 S  161.8 E   940         90
03 JAN 29 0000  16.4 S  162.6 E   925  125   100  
03 JAN 29 0600  17.0 S  163.7 E   920        110
03 JAN 29 1200  17.7 S  164.8 E   925  125   100
03 JAN 29 1800  18.4 S  166.1 E   935         90
03 JAN 30 0000  19.0 S  167.7 E   945  115    85
03 JAN 30 0600  20.0 S  168.6 E   950         80
03 JAN 30 1200  20.8 S  169.0 E   960   75    75
03 JAN 30 1800  21.6 S  169.0 E   980         55
03 JAN 31 0000  22.4 S  167.8 E   990   40    40
03 JAN 31 0600  23.1 S  166.9 E   990         40
03 JAN 31 1200  24.1 S  165.5 E   995   25    35
03 JAN 31 1800  24.3 S  163.2 E   998         30  Some peripheral gales
03 FEB 01 0000  24.4 S  162.0 E   998         30           "
03 FEB 01 0600  24.0 S  161.4 E   998         30           "
03 FEB 01 1800  22.9 S  159.6 E   999         30  Brisbane warnings
03 FEB 02 0000  22.7 S  158.3 E   999         30  Some peripheral gales
03 FEB 02 0600  22.3 S  157.5 E  1000         30           "
03 FEB 02 1200  21.5 S  156.5 E  1002         30           "
03 FEB 02 1800  21.0 S  155.4 E  1000         30           "
03 FEB 02 2300  21.1 S  154.7 E  1000         30  Gale wrng cancelled
03 FEB 03 0430  21.0 S  153.7 E  1001         30  Gale wrng resumed
03 FEB 03 1130  20.3 S  153.3 E  1000         30  Peripheral gales
03 FEB 03 1800  20.5 S  153.0 E   998         30          "
03 FEB 04 0100  20.9 S  151.6 E   995         45  Reclassified as TC
03 FEB 04 0700  20.5 S  151.1 E   995         45  See Note
03 FEB 04 1300  20.5 S  150.6 E   999         30  Downgraded/Perip. gales
03 FEB 04 1800  20.6 S  149.9 E  1002         30  Peripheral gales
03 FEB 05 0000  21.0 S  149.6 E  1004         30          "

Note: The jump in MSW on 4 February requires an explanation.  Brisbane
had been issuing gale warnings on the ex-tropical cyclone for several
days due to a band of gales 40 to 45 kts south of and decoupled from
the center.   The system was re-upgraded to tropical cyclone status
early on the 4th due to fears that Beni could turn into a very intense
hybrid rapidly becoming vertically-stacked with the upper LOW.  This
appeared to be happening on the 3rd and winds were possibly reaching
50 kts in the band of gales to the south.  However, the vertical shear
was too much and the low-level center got decoupled from the gales.
(This information from Jeff Callaghan.)  I indicated the MSW as 45 kts
during the period in which Brisbane was classifying Beni as a tropical
cyclone; however, there was no abrupt change in the overall strength
of the system.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: CILLA                 Cyclone Number: 13P     Basin: SPA
Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 07F

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 JAN 25 2100  15.0 S  176.2 E  1000         30
03 JAN 26 0300  15.5 S  176.4 E   998         30
03 JAN 26 0600  15.5 S  177.9 E   997         30
03 JAN 26 1200  15.8 S  177.1 E   997         30
03 JAN 26 1800  17.4 S  179.7 W   997         30
03 JAN 27 0000  18.5 S  177.1 W   995         35
03 JAN 27 0600  19.2 S  176.6 W   995   35    35
03 JAN 27 1200  19.6 S  175.1 W   995         35
03 JAN 27 1800  20.0 S  174.0 W   995   35    35  JTWC: 20.0 S, 173.1 W
03 JAN 28 0000  20.4 S  171.7 W   995         35
03 JAN 28 0600  20.8 S  170.0 W   995         40
03 JAN 28 1200  21.2 S  169.5 W   995         40
03 JAN 28 1800  21.6 S  168.1 W   995         40
03 JAN 29 0000  22.3 S  167.5 W   990         40
03 JAN 29 0600  22.4 S  167.0 W   995         35
03 JAN 29 1200  22.5 S  166.0 W   997         30  35 kts in S semicircle
03 JAN 29 1800  22.9 S  165.5 W   998         30            "
03 JAN 30 0000  23.9 S  165.3 W   998         30            "
03 JAN 30 1100  25.0 S  165.0 W  1002         35  Extratropical

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

             !!!!!!  IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ  !!!!!!

     It has been brought to my attention that I should repeat in the
  cyclone tracks file the caveat which is included in the Author's
  Note at the end of the cyclone summaries.   The tropical cyclone
  tracks which I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/
  advisories/advices/bulletins from the various tropical cyclone
  warning agencies around the world.   Users of these tracks should
  be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during
  post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and
  analysts at the several warning centers.

     For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical
  cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of
  the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>

     The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their
  Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best
  tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the
  North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere:

     http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>


  PREPARED BY:

  Gary Padgett              garyp@alaweb.com


  SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY:

  Michael V. Padua          michaelpadua@hotmail.com 
                            webmaster@typhoon2000.ph

  Huang Chunliang           huangchunliang@hotmail.com

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

Document: trak0301.htm
Updated: 27th December 2006

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