Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone HAPE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20030210 05:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100521ZFEB2003// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S9 64.7E7 TO 17.4S2 66.4E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100230Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 65.0E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9 65.3E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 65.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERY SMALL. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 110530Z0.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030210 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z0 --- NEAR 15.6S2 64.2E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 64.2E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 17.3S1 63.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 19.2S2 63.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 21.0S3 62.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 23.1S6 61.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM --- REMARKS: 102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 64.1E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 101741Z4 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH TC 16S (GERRY). THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. AVN AND NOGAPS TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST, INDICATING NO INTERACTION WITH TC 16S. BASED ON THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TWO CYCLONES, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 100521ZFEB2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 100530) NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030211 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 002 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z8 --- NEAR 16.9S6 64.7E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 64.7E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 18.3S2 65.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 19.4S4 65.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 20.1S3 66.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 21.1S4 67.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 64.9E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 110427Z5 SSM/I PASS SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A EYE, HOWEVER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS WEAKENED RECENTLY. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS GUIDED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. EGRR INITIALIZES WELL, WHILE AVN INITIALIZES APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES TO THE SOUTHEAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON EGRR AND THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 16S (GERRY) (WTXS33 PGTW), AND TC 18S (NO NAME)(WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030211 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 003 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z1 --- NEAR 17.7S5 66.1E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 66.1E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 18.3S2 67.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 18.9S8 69.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 19.7S7 71.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 21.0S3 73.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 66.5E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED BY A PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 111726Z8 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS A 13 NM EYE AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS GUIDED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030212 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 004 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z9 --- NEAR 17.0S8 68.1E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 68.1E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 16.6S3 69.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 16.2S9 71.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 16.1S8 72.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 17.0S8 74.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 68.5E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED BY A PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 24 NM EYE AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS GUIDED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA) (WTXS31 PGTW), TC 16S (GERRY)(WTXS32 PGTW), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030212 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 005 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z2 --- NEAR 16.6S3 69.6E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 69.6E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 16.2S9 71.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 15.9S5 72.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 16.4S1 73.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 17.5S3 73.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 70.0E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1080 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT KNOTS 07 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 80 KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 17S WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EQUATORWARD INITIALLY THEN POLEWARD THEREAFTER, INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND 132100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030213 09:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z0 --- NEAR 15.1S7 70.9E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 70.9E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 14.4S9 72.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 14.8S3 73.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 16.2S9 74.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 18.1S0 75.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 71.3E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALED A WEAK BANDING EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SYSTEM. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EQUATORWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN A POLEWARD TRACK. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS OUTFLOW REMAINS MARGINAL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF TLAPS, AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED WARNING POSITION TIME REFERENCE IN REMARKS.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030213 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 007 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z3 --- NEAR 14.6S1 72.0E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 72.0E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 14.5S0 73.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 15.2S8 74.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 16.6S3 75.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 18.6S5 76.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 72.3E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EQUATORWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN A POLEWARD TRACK. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY PERIOD AS IT TRACKS INTO THE RIDGE WEAKNESS AND ENCOUNTERS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF TLAPS, AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030214 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 008 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z1 --- NEAR 15.4S0 73.0E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 73.0E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 16.4S1 74.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 17.6S4 76.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 19.2S2 78.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z3 --- 20.9S1 79.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 73.4E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS UNFAVORABLE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH TC 16S (GERRY). A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE CENTER, WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A WELL- DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH TC 16S AND ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF TLAPS, AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH TC 16S. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030215 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/FLENUMETOCCEN MONTEREY CA//AJTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 010 RELOCATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z2 --- NEAR 20.3S5 76.5E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 23 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 76.5E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 23.5S0 78.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 76.9E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS ACCELERATED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN FORECASTED PREVIOUSLY. TC 17S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS AND A 150117Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FLENUMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ALTERNATE JTWC SENDS.//
Document: hape.html
Updated: 16th February, 2003 |
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