Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone GERRY [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20030208 06:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080621ZFEB2003// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS OF 15.3S9 54.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 080530Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2 55.6E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S7 55.7E7, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2 55.6E6 APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTION NEAR A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD. 4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 090630Z8.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030208 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z7 --- NEAR 14.5S0 56.0E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 56.0E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 14.7S2 55.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 14.7S2 55.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 15.1S7 54.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 16.3S0 54.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 55.9E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A MORE POLEWARD TRACK IS FORECAST AS A DEEPENING TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSITY AT JUST BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND REMAINS IN A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NOGPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 080621Z FEB 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 080630). NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030209 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z5 --- NEAR 13.0S4 55.5E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 55.5E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 12.6S9 55.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 12.5S8 55.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 13.7S1 55.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 15.0S6 55.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 55.4E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER NORTH BASED UPON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUPPORTING CONSOLIDATION IN THIS VICINITY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO LOOP TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE TRACKING POLEWARD AS A DEEPENING TROUGH WEAKENS A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AVN AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030209 21:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z8 --- NEAR 12.2S5 55.0E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 55.0E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 11.8S0 55.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 12.4S7 55.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 13.5S9 55.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 14.7S2 56.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 55.1E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS SOMEWHAT BROAD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO LOOP TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT CONSOLIDATES BEFORE TRACKING POLEWARD AS A DEEPENING TROUGH WEAKENS A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AVN AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030210 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z7 --- NEAR 11.5S7 54.2E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 54.2E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 11.3S5 54.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 12.1S4 55.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 13.4S8 55.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 14.8S3 57.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 4.3E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100600Z7 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN EXTENT OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO LOOP TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT CONSOLIDATES BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEAST AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AVN AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030210 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z0 --- NEAR 11.8S0 54.7E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 54.7E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 12.4S7 55.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 13.1S5 56.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 14.3S8 57.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 15.8S4 58.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM --- REMARKS: 102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 54.9E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. A 101743Z6 SSM/I DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH TC 17S LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AVN AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030211 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z8 --- NEAR 13.3S7 53.7E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 53.7E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 14.8S3 54.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 16.2S9 55.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 17.7S5 56.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 19.3S3 57.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 53.8E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THAT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME INTERACTION WITH TC 17S (HAPE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AVN AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 17S (HAPE) (WTXS33 PGTW), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030211 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 007 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z1 --- NEAR 15.3S9 53.5E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 53.5E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 17.0S8 54.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 18.3S2 55.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 19.5S5 56.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 20.9S1 58.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 53.6E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030212 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 008 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z9 --- NEAR 16.6S3 54.5E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 54.5E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 17.9S7 55.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 19.3S3 57.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 20.8S0 58.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 22.2S6 60.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 54.8E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 17S (HAPE)(WTXS33 PGTW), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030212 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 009 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z2 --- NEAR 17.9S7 55.7E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 55.7E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 19.2S2 57.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 20.7S9 58.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 22.1S5 60.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 23.5S0 62.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 56.0E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 KNOTS. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS, THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND 132100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030213 09:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 010A CORRECTED 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z0 --- NEAR 19.4S4 58.5E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 58.5E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 21.0S3 60.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 22.5S9 61.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 24.0S6 63.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 25.2S9 65.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 58.9E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 16S HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 16S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED WARNING POSITION TIME REFERENCE IN REMARKS.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030213 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 011 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z3 --- NEAR 21.5S8 61.0E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 61.0E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 23.8S3 63.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 25.7S4 65.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 27.5S4 67.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 28.4S4 70.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.1S5 61.5E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 16S SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030214 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 012 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z5 --- NEAR 22.6S0 61.8E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 61.8E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 24.7S3 63.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 26.4S2 66.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 27.9S8 69.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 28.6S6 72.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 23.1S6 62.3E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 16S SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 AND 150300Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNING (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030214 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 013 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z8 --- NEAR 24.6S2 63.2E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S2 63.2E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 26.2S0 64.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 27.3S2 66.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 27.8S7 67.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 27.5S4 69.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 25.0S7 63.6E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141130Z0 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DECOUPLED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CAUSED BY A TRANSIENT MID- LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. AS A RESULT, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 16S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS DECOUPLED UNDER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS EXCEPT FOR UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR BUILDS THE RIDGE IN TO THE SOUTH SOONER AND AS A RESULT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 AND 151500Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030215 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 014 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z6 --- NEAR 26.9S7 65.4E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S7 65.4E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 27.8S7 67.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 28.7S7 68.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 29.1S2 70.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 27.1S0 65.8E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY) HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3 ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEVOID OF CONVECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AND EXTENDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. A MORE WELL DEFINED AREA OF CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A MODERATE WARM FRONT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL FIELDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND AN ASSOCIATED GRADIENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTIUES TO WEAKEN AND COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MAINTAINED STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE MODELS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 AND 160300Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW 142100) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ALTERNATE JTWC SENDS.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030215 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z9 --- NEAR 27.8S7 66.8E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 27.8S7 66.8E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 28.3S3 67.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 27.9S8 67.1E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FLENUMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) FOR THE FINAL WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW). ALTERNATE JTWC SENDS.//
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Updated: 16th February, 2003 |
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