[Index]
Tropical Cyclone BOURA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone BOURA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20021115 08:30z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2S9 76.6E9 TO 9.7S6 71.8E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150600Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 7.7S4 76.1E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6S2 77.6E0 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 7.7S4 76.1E4, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
150051Z2 QUIKSCAT PASS AND ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA OF
CONVECTION AND ELONGATED TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS GOOD DIVERGENCE WITH BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160830Z8.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021115 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- NEAR 8.6S4 75.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 75.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 9.7S6 74.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 10.6S7 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 11.6S8 72.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 12.6S9 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 14.3S8 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 8.9S7 75.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA) HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. TC 03S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
151130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72
HOURS ALONG THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 17 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 150821Z NOV 02 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 150830) NEXT WARNINGS AT
152100Z9, 160300Z0, 160900Z6 AND 161500Z3.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021115 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 9.2S1 75.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 75.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 10.0S1 73.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 10.4S5 72.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 10.9S0 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 11.8S0 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 12.7S0 69.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 9.4S3 74.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA) HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. TC 03S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
151730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT
HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN A MILD STAIRSTEP PATTERN. STEERING IS PROVIDED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, REPLACED IN THE MID PERIOD BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MADAGASCAR AND MOVING EASTWARD.
SUBSEQUENT STEERING FLOW WILL BE PROVIDED BY A SECOND STEERING RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
IT REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0, 160900Z6, 161500Z3 AND 162100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021116 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- NEAR 9.6S5 74.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S5 74.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 10.4S5 72.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 11.1S3 71.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 11.7S9 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 12.0S3 69.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 12.1S4 67.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION NEAR 9.8S7 74.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
152330Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEERING IS PROVIDED
BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, REPLACED IN THE MID
PERIOD BY A SECOND STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. TC
03S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160000Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6, 161500Z3,
162100Z0 AND 170300Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021116 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 10.3S4 73.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S4 73.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 10.8S9 72.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 11.4S6 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 11.9S1 69.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 12.2S5 67.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 12.2S5 64.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 10.4S5 73.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
160530Z5 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP IN MARGINAL
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3, 162100Z0, 170300Z1 AND
170900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021116 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z0 --- NEAR 10.8S9 72.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S9 72.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 11.5S7 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 12.2S5 69.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 12.7S0 67.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 12.6S9 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 12.3S6 63.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 72.1E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 03S IS BEING STEERED BY
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A MIGRATORY RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE STEERING FLOW AND TURN TC 03S TO A WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
IN MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161200Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0, 170300Z1,
170900Z7 AND 171500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021116 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- NEAR 11.0S2 72.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 72.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 11.7S9 70.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 12.3S6 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 12.6S9 67.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 12.6S9 65.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 12.6S9 62.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.2S4 71.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS STILL OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. TC 03S IS BEING STEERED BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A MIGRATORY RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE
STEERING FLOW AND TURN TC 03S TO A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE
AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
IN MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161800Z6 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1, 170900Z7,
171500Z4 AND 172100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021117 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- NEAR 11.3S5 71.5E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 71.5E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 12.0S3 69.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 12.5S8 68.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 12.7S0 66.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 12.9S2 64.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 12.5S8 60.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 71.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
162330Z ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. TC 03S IS BEING STEERED BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A MIGRATORY RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE
THE STEERING FLOW AND TURN TC 03S TO A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE
AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
IN MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170000Z8 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7, 171500Z4,
172100Z1 AND 180300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021117 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- NEAR 12.1S4 69.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 69.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 12.7S0 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 13.4S8 65.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 13.8S2 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 14.1S6 61.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 14.1S6 57.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 69.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
170530Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS. EARLY VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT THE VORTEX HAS
MOVED BENEATH THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND HAS DEVELOPED A
CDO. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT A BANDING FEATURE IS DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS, A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG 60.0E6 SHOULD CAUSE A
REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION OF TC 03S AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. AFTERWARD, A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
OUT OF MADAGASCAR AND INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT NOGAPS AND GFDN HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT. GFS WAS
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND THE UKMETO INDICATED A SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER RIDGE. OUR FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE AND
ON THE NOGAPS AND GFDN RUNS. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4, 172100Z1, 180300Z2 AND
180900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021117 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- NEAR 12.7S0 68.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 68.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 13.3S7 66.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 13.8S2 64.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 13.9S3 62.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 14.2S7 60.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 14.9S4 56.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 68.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 387 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
171130Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS. VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTED EYE FORMATION AT 170600Z4
WITH AN ARRESTING PERIOD RETURNING TO A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND FEATURE
AT 171130Z3. DESPITE THE LOSS OF THE EYE FEATURE, THE INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 65 KTS. DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, A LARGE AMPLITUDE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG 64.0E0 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE A REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION OF TC 03S AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. AFTERWARD, A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO
BUILD EAST OUT OF MADAGASCAR AND INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON
PERSISTENCE AND ON THE NOGAPS AND GFDN RUNS. SOME FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1, 180300Z2,
180900Z8 AND 181500Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021117 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 13.3S7 68.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 68.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 14.3S8 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 14.6S1 64.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 14.6S1 62.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 14.4S9 60.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 14.0S5 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 67.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171730Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING EYE,
HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED. CURRENT PASSAGE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED FORWARD TRACK
SPEED AND EFFECTED A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK MOVEMENT. IN THE EARLY
PERIOD, TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD EAST OUT OF MADAGASCAR AND INFLUENCE THE TRACK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, RETURNING THE SYSTEM TO A MORE
WESTWARD COURSE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND, THEREFORE,
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE POLEWARD COMPONENT TO THE INTERMEDIATE TRACK,
WITH EGRR TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE IN THE
EARLY PERIOD AND A MORE NORTHWESTWARD COURSE THEREAFTER. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
MODELS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO TRACK JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z2, 180900Z8, 181500Z5 AND 182100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021118 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- NEAR 13.6S0 67.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 67.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 14.4S9 65.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 14.6S1 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 14.6S1 61.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 14.4S9 59.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 13.8S2 55.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 67.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
172330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING EYE. PASSAGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO EFFECT SLOWER FORWARD TRACK SPEEDS AND A MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. IN THE EARLY PERIOD, TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
TAKE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD, A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST OUT OF MADAGASCAR AND
INFLUENCE THE TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD COURSE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM AND, THEREFORE, DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE POLEWARD
COMPONENT TO THE INTERMEDIATE TRACK, WITH EGRR TAKING THE SYSTEM ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGH THE MID-PERIOD AND A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD COURSE THEREAFTER. GFDN AND NGPS TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A
MORE DIRECTLY WESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
MODELS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO TRACK JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z8, 181500Z5, 182100Z2 AND 190300Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021118 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 13.6S0 66.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 66.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 13.9S3 65.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 13.9S3 63.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 14.0S5 61.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 14.0S5 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 13.8S2 55.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 66.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
180530Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND RECENT MICROWAVE AND
QUIKSCAT PASSES. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. A 180309Z1 SSM/I PASS DEPICTED A
PERSISTENT TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURE. THE LOW/MID TROP PW ANAL
AND A SSM/I 85 GHZ/VAPOR PASS REVEAL DRY AIR AFFECTING THE EAST
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANOTHER LARGE AMPLITUDE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD INFLUENCE
A, GENERALLY, SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THIS RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, GFDN,
GFS, AND UKMETO). FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE A BELOW CLIMO
PROCESS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z5, 182100Z2, 190300Z3 AND 190900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021118 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- NEAR 13.8S2 65.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 65.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 14.0S5 63.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 14.0S5 61.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 13.9S3 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 13.8S2 57.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 12.7S0 53.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 65.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181130Z4
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. APPARENTLY, THE
UPPER NORTHEASTERLIES ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICT SIGNIFICANT FLATTENING OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH AN APPROACH OF A LARGE
AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF AFRICA. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH BY MID PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND
UKMETO). INTENSIFICATION, IF ANY, SHOULD BE BELOW CLIMO AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IN
ADDITION, NWP INDICATES A STRENGTHENING TREND OF THE UPPER
NORTHEASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z2 IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2, 190300Z3, 190900Z9 AND 191500Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021118 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 13.7S1 64.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 64.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 13.8S2 62.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 13.9S3 60.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 13.9S3 58.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 13.9S3 56.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 12.6S9 52.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 64.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181730Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
SHEARED FROM THE EAST FROM UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES. A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH PASSING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE STEERING THE SYSTEM. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH BY
MID PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE AIDS, INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMETO. TC 03S IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
HOWEVER, THE DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING TREND OF THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES, WEAKENING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z3, 190900Z9, 191500Z6 AND 192100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021119 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- NEAR 13.7S1 63.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 63.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 13.8S2 61.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 13.9S3 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 14.0S5 57.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 13.6S0 55.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 12.0S3 52.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 63.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN MORE NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMETO, ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, THE
DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLIES, WEAKENING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z9, 191500Z6, 192100Z3 AND 200300Z5.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 016 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021119 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- NEAR 14.4S9 61.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 61.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 15.2S8 59.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 15.2S8 57.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 14.9S4 55.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 14.6S1 54.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 13.8S2 51.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 61.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191130Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS TOWARDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AND THEN FINALLY NORTHWESTWARD BY 72
HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MADAGASCAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR), ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR CONTINUES TO
BE POLEWARD BIASED THROUGH 48 HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN
THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3 IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 AND 201500Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021120 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- NEAR 14.9S4 59.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 59.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 14.9S4 57.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 14.8S3 55.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 14.5S0 54.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 13.5S9 52.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 59.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN,
GFS, AND UKMET OFFICE, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
EGRR WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MORE THAN THE OTHER AIDS,
RESULTING IN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN
THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z2 IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 AND 210300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021120 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z5 --- NEAR 15.6S2 57.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 57.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 15.7S3 56.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 15.4S0 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 14.9S4 53.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 14.3S8 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 57.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTH OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201130Z7
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW CONTINUES IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND
UKMET OFFICE, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR WEAKENS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MORE THAN THE OTHER AIDS, RESULTING IN A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z5 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z6 AND 211500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 020 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021121 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z6 --- NEAR 14.8S3 55.4E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 55.4E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 14.1S6 54.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 13.6S0 52.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 13.1S5 52.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 13.1S5 51.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 55.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
EAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211130Z8
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO
THE NORTHWEST OF REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND
AFWA MM5, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PREDICTIONS ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH APPEAR TO BE THE CRITICAL
FACTOR. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND FAVORS THE AFWA MM5
AND NGPS MODELS. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH ENCROACHING WESTERLIES AND THE
ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211200Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7 AND 221500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021122 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BOURA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z4 --- NEAR 14.1S6 54.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 54.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 13.2S6 53.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 54.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
EAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 212330Z1
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 40 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN IN THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGES DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MINIMAL REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST
DIRECTION AS IT DISSIPATES. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DROP TO 30
KNOTS WITHIN 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN SUBSTANTIAL COOL
AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z4 IS 13 FEET. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
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Document: boura.html
Updated: 24th November, 2002 |
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