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Tropical Cyclone ATANG
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
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Tropical Cyclone ATANG [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20021104 21:00z REISSUED
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042100Z NOV 02//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 112051)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S3 62.0E8 TO 7.9S6 58.2E5
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041730Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 7.6S3 62.0E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.6S3 63.3E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6S3 62.0E8, APPROXIMATELY
620 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER
WEAKENING LLCC. A PARTIAL RECENT TRMM PASS SUGGESTS A WEAK
CIRCULATION REMAINS IN THE MID-LEVELS. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS THE AREA
TRACKS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS PGTW 032100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. DUE TO THE LOCATION OFF THE LLCC EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LLCC
LIES BENEATH THE RIDGE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021106 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 9.5S4 59.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S4 59.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 10.1S2 58.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 10.4S5 57.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 10.5S6 56.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 10.5S6 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 9.7S6 59.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
THEN WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 08 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 052051Z
NOV 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 052100 )
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021106 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 9.8S7 59.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S7 59.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 10.2S3 57.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 10.3S4 56.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 10.4S5 54.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 10.4S5 52.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 02S CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS
UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND
72100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021107 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 8.6S4 58.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 58.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 8.8S6 57.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 9.4S3 56.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 10.0S1 55.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 10.6S7 54.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 8.6S4 58.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON NEW FIX
LOCATIONS FROM MULTIPLE MICROWAVE PASSES AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS, MICROWAVE PASSES, DECREASING DVORAK TRENDS AND
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING IN THE
CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES NOW APPEAR DIFFUSE AND WEAK. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH A SECOND LLCC LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 02S IF FORECAST TO ONLY MARGINALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, STEERED
BY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021107 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 8.4S2 56.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4S2 56.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 8.6S4 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 8.5S3 55.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 INFRARED
AND MULTIPLE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS, MICROWAVE PASSES, DECREASING DVORAK
TRENDS AND ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CONSIDERABLE
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH
WITH MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS. THE PRIMARY LLCC HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT REMAINS
IN THE ELONGATED TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6
IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021109 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 10.1S2 52.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 52.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 10.8S9 51.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 11.1S3 50.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 11.3S5 49.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 11.4S6 48.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.3S4 52.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG) HAS REGENERATED 210 NM NORTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7
ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
AND 35 KNOTS. A SHORT-LIVED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMED NORTHWEST OF
MADAGASCAR, IMPROVING OUTFLOW CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS
ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC
02S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021109 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 12.0S3 50.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 50.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.5S9 48.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 14.3S8 46.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 14.6S1 45.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 14.6S1 43.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 50.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ATANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THAT INDICATES A MAX OF 35 KNOTS AS WELL AS
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CAUSED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AFTER 12 TO 18 HOURS, A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL CAUSING 02S TO TRACK WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MADAGASCAR AND MAY INTENSIFY IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021110 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 12.1S4 49.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 49.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.0S4 48.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 13.8S2 46.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 14.1S6 44.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 14.2S7 43.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.3S6 49.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ATANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A 100301Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS THAT INDICATES A MAXIMUM SPEED OF
35 KNOTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS TWO POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTERS HAVE FORMED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND, ONE
JUST OFF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND ONE IN THE CONVECTION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD AND WEAKEN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM BY 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TOWARD THE WEAKNESS AND THEN WESTWARD AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MOZAMIBIQUE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MADAGASCAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021110 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 11.1S3 48.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S3 48.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 11.0S2 47.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 48.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ATANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A
101404Z0 QUIKSCAT PASS AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS. THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BUILT IN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND SHOULD BE THE STEERING INFLUENCE TO PUSH THE REMAINS OF
THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0
IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021111 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 11.6S8 44.5E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 44.5E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 11.9S1 42.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 12.0S3 39.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 11.9S1 37.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9 43.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ATANG) HAS REGENERATED OVER WARM OCEAN
WATERS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH OF
MADAGASCAR. TC 02S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 ENHANCED
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30, AND 35
KNOTS AND A 110236Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH 36 HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111200Z5 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021112 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 11.8S0 42.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 42.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 11.9S1 40.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 11.7S9 38.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0 42.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ATANG) LOCATED IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE.
TC 02S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. LANDFALL
IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 121500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021113 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ATANG) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 10.4S5 39.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 39.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 10.4S5 37.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.4S5 38.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ATANG) IS LOCATED OVERLAND, APPROXIMATELY
50 NM WEST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF TANZANIA. TC 02S HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. LANDFALL FOR TC 02S OCCURRED AT
APPROXIMATELY 221800Z3, BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA, ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE REMAINING
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD OVERLAND AS IT DISSIPATES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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Document: atang.html
Updated: 14th November, 2002 |
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